As technological development progresses at an exponential rate a central question comes up: Will machines at some point be more intelligent than humans? If so, when will that "Singularity" happen? I held this talk at execfintech.com in Frankfurt on March 8th 2016.

1. Singularity
Prepare for the disruption of human intelligence
#execfintech, March 8th 2016

2. manuel koelman
dutch entrepreneur | living in
cologne | founded several
companies | chairman of pirate
summit | corporate innovation |
agile enterprise | startup dna |
practical philosopher | startup
mentor | angel investor | father of
two | interested in machine
intelligence | cheese addicted

3. Nobody has a f%$king clue
about what is going to happen.
Me neither.

4. Within thirty years, we will
have the technological means
to create superhuman
intelligence. Shortly after, the
human era will be ended.
- Vernor Vinge (1993)

5. The Singularity
A future point in time when
technology will rapidly improve
itself to surpass human
intelligence, changing human
life as we know it.
=

6. Here is the main thinking about AI...

7. 1. We create AI

8. 2. The AI wakes up

9. 3. The AI makes itself smarter

10. 4. The AI makes itself
MUCH MUCH
smarter

11. 5. The AI takes over
Friendly Unfriendly

12. And there is not much we can do about it.
It’s inevitable.The end.

13. Where does this
thinking come from?

14. The law of accelerating returns
Technological change is
exponential, contrary to the
common-sense “intuitive linear”
view.

15. Looks pretty
linear, right?

16. Look again!

17. Today

18. Artificial Narrow Intelligence (ANI)
Also referred to as Weak AI. AI that specializes in one area
e.g. play chess extremely well. Cannot do anything else.
Already exists.
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
Also referred to as Strong or Human-Level AI. Refers to a
computer that is as smart as a human across the board
i.e. a machine that can perform any intellectual task that
a human being can. Doesn’t exist (yet).
Artificial Superintelligence (ASI)
Leading AI thinker Nick Bostrom defines superintelligence
as “an intellect that is much smarter than the best
human brains in practically every field, including
scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills.”
Levels of AI

19. Experts predict that ASI1
● will most probably
happen
● will probably happen in
the 21st century
● will make a huge impact
when it happens
ASI = Artificial Super Intelligence

20. If you ask experts we are either going to
reach IMMORTALITY or
we are all going to
DIE!To specify: We are all going to die at pretty much the same time.
And the human race will cease to exist...

22. “We are summoning
the demon.”
- Elon Musk (CEO Tesla, SpaceX)

23. But...

24. Exponential
development is not
accelerating infinitely
Moore’s law - the most popular technology
growth law - is reaching its physical limits.

25. The Apocalypse has
been predicted
many times before
1. Book of revelation (1st century AD)
2. Year 1.000
3. Nostradamus (16th Century)
4. Nuclear holocaust (1950s-80s)
5. Year 2.000
6. End of Mayan calendar (2012)

26. 1. The medieval clock can keep time
2. Light bulbs illuminate the dark
3. Airplanes can fly
4. ...
Super-human
“intelligence”1 has
been built by
humans for ages
1 The examples on the right are not exactly examples of “intelligence”. What is
intelligence anyway? The point is to illustrate that humans in the past have
created things that exceed human capabilities.

27. A.I. is still far away
from the efficiency and
capability of the
human brain
1. IBM’s Watson of 2013 consumes 85,000 Watts
compared with the human brain’s 20 Watts.
2. The brain is an analog device, not digital.
3. More computing power does not mean more
intelligence.
4. Memory is not storage.
5. What is not (yet) possible: An “intelligent”
machine with only limited knowledge of a
domain.
6. ...

28. Machines can process a nearly limitless
amount of data, however
1. Human minds are - for the
foreseeable future - better than
machines at Improvisation +
Imagination = Creative improvisation
2. Human minds can be “irrational”
3. Machines don’t have common sense
4. Can a machine be self-aware? Really?
Human beings
≠
Machines

29. “AI has by now succeeded in
doing essentially everything that
requires ‘thinking’ but has failed
to do most of what people and
animals do ‘without thinking’”
- Donald Knuth, Computer Scientist

30. My current opinion1
1. Machines ≠ human beings - they won’t surpass “human” intelligence anytime
soon (i.e. the next 50 years)
2. However, the Singularity is inevitable and machines will in many ways surpass
human capacity very soon (a lot of people will loose their current jobs)
3. We are already today dependant on machines - this dependence will increase
drastically
4. Eventually we will see a fusion of human beings and machines (best of both
worlds)
5. The scary (and for some maybe exciting) part might be that machines will not
only become more like humans but humans will become more like machines
1 My opinion on this will most likely change in the next months/years.

31. Singularity is going to happen.
But the outcome is not inevitable.
It’s up to us.

32. The Singularity could end up being the
best thing that ever happened to the
human race.
Or the worst.

33. The Singularity will - in any case – have a
huge impact on our society and humanity as a whole.
We should have more awareness and debate about it.

34. Let’s discuss.
Please feel free to connect:
@manuelkoelman
LinkedIn
Leanentrepreneur.com
PirateSummit.com