What will be the next Internet? 11 revolutionary technologies are shaping the future: molecular nanotechnology, biotechnology and personalized medicine, synthetic biology, life extension and anti-aging therapies, robotics, artificial intelligence, intelligence augmentation, virtual reality, fabbing, quantum computing and affordable space launch.
This is a January 2008 update to the similar October 2007 presentation.
1. The Future of Technology
January 2008
Melanie Swan
MS Futures Group
melanieswan.com
2. The Future of Technology
2
Summary
Growth paradigms are not just linear and
exponential, most importantly they are
discontinuous
The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is
imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change
Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law
improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software
faces challenges
Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a
discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
Image: Fausto de Martini
3. The Future of Technology
3
Paradigms of growth and change
Linear
Economic, demographic, life span phenomena
Exponential
Technology: processors, memory, storage,
communications, Facebook applications
Discontinuous
Plane, car, radio, wars, radar, nuclear weapons,
satellites, computers, Internet, globalization
Impossible to predict
• Evaluate rapid transition time and doubling capability
• Cascading technology advances from adjacent areas
Exponential
Discontinuous
Linear
4. The Future of Technology
4
The future depends on which coming revolution
occurs first
What will be the next Internet?
Artificial
Intelligence
Molecular
Nanotechnology
Anti-aging
Therapies
Metaverse
Technologies
Quantum
Computing
Robotics
Intelligence
Augmentation
Personalized
Medicine
Affordable
Space Launch
Fabbing
Synthetic
Biology
5. The Future of Technology
5
Evolution of computation
Future of computing
New materials
3d circuits
Quantum computing
Molecular electronics
Optical computing
DNA computing
Electro-
mechanical
Relay Vacuum
tube
Transistor Integrated
circuit
?
Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
6. The Future of Technology
6
Extensibility of Moore’s Law
Source: Ray Kurzweil, http://www.KurzweilAI.net/pps/ACC2005/
Transistors per microprocessor
Penryn
45 nm, 410-800m transistors
Core 2
65 nm, 291m transistors
7. The Future of Technology
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Current semiconductor advancements
Source: http://www.siliconvalleysleuth.com/2007/01/a_look_inside_i.html
Standard Silicon
Transistor
High-k + Metal Gate
Transistor
Historical semiconductors
65nm+
Intel Penryn 45nm chip,
shipping fall 2007
Metal
Gate
High-k
Insulator
Silicon substrate
DrainDrain SourceSource
Silicon substrate
SiO2
Insulator
8. The Future of Technology
8
ITRS semiconductor roadmap leads the way
Source: http://download.intel.com/technology/silicon/Paolo_Semicon_West_071904.pdf
2009
32 nm 2009, 22 nm 2011, molecular manufacturing needed for 10 nm
9. The Future of Technology
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Software remains challenging
Abstract, difficult to measure
Doubling each 6-10 years
Wirth’s law: “Software gets slower faster than
hardware gets faster”
Failure of large projects (FAA, CIA)
19 m programmers worldwide in 20101
Possible improvements
Open source vs. proprietary systems
Interoperability testing
Standards, reusable modules
Web 2.0 software for the enterprise
Software to write software
1
Source: http://www.itfacts.biz/index.php?id=P8481
Lady Ada
Lovelace
10. The Future of Technology
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Arms race for the future of intelligence
Machine Human
Blue Gene/L 596 teraFLOPS (>596 trillion
IPS) and 74 TB memory1
Unlimited operational/build knowledge
Quick upgrade cycles: performance
capability doubling every 18 months
Linear, Von Neumann architecture
Understands rigid language
Special purpose problem solving (Deep
Blue, Chinook, ATMs, fraud detection)
Metal chassis, easy to backup
An estimated 20,000 trillion IPS and
1,000 TB memory2
Limited operational/build knowledge
Slow upgrade cycles: 10,000 year
evolutionary adaptations
Massively parallel architecture
Understands flexible, fuzzy language
General purpose problem solving,
works fine in new situations
Nucleotide chassis, no backup possible
1
Source: Fastest Supercomputer, November 2007, http://www.top500.org/system/8968
2
Source: http://paula.univ.gda.pl/~dokgrk/bre01.html
11. The Future of Technology
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Artificial intelligence: current status
Approaches
Symbolic, statistical, evolutionary algorithms, learning
algorithms, mechanistic, hybrid
Current initiatives
Narrow AI: DARPA, corporate
Strong AI: startups
Nearer-term applications
Auditory, visual, transportation
Format
Robotic
Distributed
Virtual
Non-corporeal
DGC: Boss, 2007
12. The Future of Technology
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Molecular nanotechnology
Definition
3D atomically precise placement
Scale
Human hair: 80,000 nm
Limit of human vision: 10,000 nm
Virus: 50 nm, DNA: 2 nm
Atom 0.1 nm
Tools
Microscopy
Mills, motors
Image sources: http://www.imm.org, http://www.rfreitas.com,
http://www.foresight.org, http://www.e-drexler.org
13. The Future of Technology
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Fabbing
Community fabs
MIT Fab Labs
Make, TechShop
Personal 3d printing
Fab@Home, RepRap, Evil
Personal manufacturing
Ponoko
Fabjectory
Cornell Fab@Home
RepRap
Evil LabsFabjectory
14. The Future of Technology
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Biotechnology
Biology: information science
Genomics
DNA Sequencing
DNA Synthesizing
Variation: SNPs
Proteomics, other “-omics”
Sources: http://www.economist.com/background/displaystory.cfm?story_id=7854314,
http://www.molsci.org/%7Ercarlson/Carlson_Pace_and_Prolif.pdf
DNA SynthesizerVariation: SNP
15. The Future of Technology
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Anti-aging and radical life extension
Aging is a pathology
Immortality is not hubristic and unnatural
Aubrey de Grey: Strategies for Engineered
Negligible Senescence (SENS)
Nucleic and mitochondrial mutations
Intracellular and extracellular junk
Cell loss and senescence
Extracellular crosslinks
Solutions and escape velocity
Mutation anti-suppressors
Bioremediation
Cell strengthening
Real age estimation tests
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1850 1900 1950 2000 2050
U.S. Life Expectancy, 1850 – 2050e
83
77
69
50
39
Research to repair and
reverse the damage of aging
The Methuselah Foundation
Source: http://www.infoplease.com/ipa/A0005140.html
Source: http://earthtrends.wri.org/text/population-health/variable-379.html
http://www.realage.com
http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/CalcForm.html
16. The Future of Technology
16
Metaverse technologies
Demand for streaming video, data visualization, simulation
and 3D data display
Detailed reality capture
Augmented reality
Blended reality
Alternate reality
Virtual worlds
Virtual reality 2.0
Wild Divine NTT’s Aromatic Display
IBM’s Virtual NOC LAX Air Traffic Data 3D Stock Charts
Heads-up Display Data Overlay Blended Reality Conference
Google Earth GPS Life-logging rig
17. The Future of Technology
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Affordable space launch
Government
Regular missions
New participants
Spaceport development
Commercial
Rocket launch
Space elevator
Prizes
NASA Centennial Challenges
X Prize Foundation
China’s Chang’e-1
Space Elevator and Climber Competition
SpaceX
Spaceport America, NM
Google Lunar X Prize
Space-based Solar Power
Virgin Galactic
18. The Future of Technology
18
The future depends on which coming revolution
occurs first
What will be the next Internet?
Artificial
Intelligence
Molecular
Nanotechnology
Anti-aging
Therapies
Metaverse
Technologies
Quantum
Computing
Robotics
Intelligence
Augmentation
Personalized
Medicine
Affordable
Space Launch
Fabbing
Synthetic
Biology
19. The Future of Technology
19
Summary
Growth paradigms are not just linear and
exponential, most importantly they are
discontinuous
The realm of technology is no longer discrete, technology is
imbuing other areas with exponential and discontinuous change
Computation (hardware and software) outlook: Moore’s Law
improvements likely to continue unabated in hardware; software
faces challenges
Next fifty years: linear and exponential growth and possibly a
discontinuous change with greater impact than the Internet
20. Thank you
Melanie Swan
MS Futures Group
melanieswan.com
Slides: http//www.melanieswan.com/presentations
Provided under an open source Creative Commons 3.0 license
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0/
Editor's Notes
Moore’s Law improvements will likely continue unabated in hardware, even with substrate changes