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TEN WAYS TO WEALTH Lon W. Broske, CFS
TEN WAYS TO WEALTH 1. Have a long-term plan to reach 2 your goals 2. Do not follow the crowd 3. Do not speculate 4. Do not buy stocks on rumor 5. Do not use margin
TEN WAYS TO WEALTH 6. Hire a professional financial advisor 7. Do not let emotion overrule logic 8. Own a diversified portfolio 9. Do not time the market 10.Update your plan every two years
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],#1  HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN TO REACH MY FINANCIAL GOALS
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Morningstar, Inc. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Commodity Systems, Inc., Lipper Inc., Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Morgan Stanley Technology Index is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. 1999 was a period of unusually high performance for the technology sector.
HAZARDS OF CHASING PAST PERFORMANCE: Source:  Commodity Systems, Inc., NAREIT Booms and Busts Examples of large variances from year to year Gold/ Equity   Year  Silver REIT   Hi-Tech   End  Index Index Index   1993 85% 1994 -17% 1997 13% 1998 -22% 1999 111% 2000 -27% The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold/Silver Index, the Nareit Equity Index, and the Morgan Stanley Technology Index are all unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. 1999 was a period of unusually high performance for the technology sector.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
#3  DO NOT SPECULATE โ€œ Everyone knows that most people who speculate or gamble in the market lose money at it in the end. The people who persist in trying it are either unintelligent or    willing to lose money    for the fun of the    gameโ€ฆIn any case,   they are not really    investors at all.โ€   -- Benjamin Graham R W  =  Q  +  T  +  D
#4  DO NOT BUY STOCKS ON RUMOR
#5  DO NOT USE MARGIN โ€œWhatโ€™s in Your Wallet?โ€
#5  DO NOT USE MARGIN โ€œWhatโ€™s in Your Wallet?โ€ ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],A Margin Horror Story
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
#6  Hire a Professional Financial Advisor
WHY HIRE A PROFESSIONAL  FINANCIAL ADVISOR? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHY HIRE A PROFESSIONAL  FINANCIAL ADVISOR? ,[object Object],[object Object]
WHY HIRE A PROFESSIONAL  FINANCIAL ADVISOR? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
What do each of the following have in common?
ANSWER:  THEY ALL HAVE PERSONAL COACHES
A Professional  Advisorโ€™s Most  Important Job According to University of Nebraska Sports Psychologist, Dr. Jack Stark: โ€œ Behavior management  is probably the most important element in the service that a professional financial advisor can provide for his clients.โ€
#7  DO NOT LET EMOTION  OVERRULE LOGIC Do not let the news of the day distract you from your long-term plan.
The Cycle of Market Emotions Optimism Excitement Thrill Euphoria Anxiety Denial Fear Desperation Capitulation Panic Despondency Depression Hope Relief Optimism Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity - Investors Realize Investment Opportunity Point of Maximum Financial Risk - Investors Beware of Higther Investment Risk
Bear Markets May Provide Opportunity December 1957 43.4% 13.3% 12.8% June 1962 31.0% 14.2% 10.4% September 1966 30.5% 8.7% 6.9% June 1970 41.9% 9.3% 9.0% September 1974 38.1% 16.7% 15.6% July 1982 59.3% 29.6% 19.2% November 1987 23.3% 17.3% 18.7% October 1990 33.5% 17.3% 19.4% August 1998 39.8% 13.19 โ€“ Average 37.9% 15.8% 14.0% Source: Thomson Financial - Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Returns shown are for the Standard & Poorโ€™s 500 Index.  The S&P 500 index is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. End date of  Bear market 10 years later 5 years later 1 years later
S&P 500 vs โ€œPanic Pointsโ€   It is not possible to invest directly in a market index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Since World War II
If, at December 31, 1925,  you  knew  what was coming 1929 - Stock Market crashes 1933 - U.S. banks closed, depression 1939 - World War II begins  1941 - Japan bombs Pearl Harbor  1950 -  Korean War begins  1962 - Cuban Missile Crisis 1963 - Kennedy assassinated 1973 - OPEC oil embargo 1974 -Nixon Resigns, Watergate 1980 - Inflation rate rises to 14% 1982 - Worst recession in 50 years 1987 - Dow crashes 23 % in one day 1989 - S&L crisis, $500bn bailout 1990 - Persian Gulf War, recession 1997 - Asian financial crisis 1998 - Russian default 1999 - Clinton impeachment trials  2001 - Terrorist attacks on America
[object Object],[object Object],What would  you have invested in?
If you answered โ€œstocksโ€,  you would have been right: Ibbotson Associates cumulative total return indices for S&P 500 and 3-Month Treasury Bills.  It is not possible to invest directly in an index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Stocks T-Bills Reflects the growth of $10,000 invested on Dec. 31, 1927 to Dec. 31, 2004 $174,400 $9,799,411
What if you wanted  to seek preservation of principal?
T-BILLS MAY NOT BE    THE BEST SOLUTIONโ€ฆ.โ€ After inflation and taxes, $10,000 continuously reinvested in 3-month T-bills was worth only  $5,221 .  Your after-tax, inflation-adjusted purchasing power wouldโ€™ve been  reduced by 48%  after having invested for 76 years ! Ibbotson Associates cumulative total return indices for 3-Month Treasury Bills adjusted for both inflation and taxes.  Investment period from 12/31/25 - 12/31/01.  It is not possible to invest directly in an index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  Your results will vary.  Taxes are based upon the top marginal personal income tax rate in the U.S. each year.  Inflation is based upon the change in the Consumer Price Index.
How diversified are you really?
#8  OWN A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Assume it is 12/31/71 and you are blessed with perfect foresight about these annual asset class returns over the next 29 years.  How would you allocate your retirement plan? Indices used to represent asset classes depicted above are the S&P 500, the Morgan Stanley EAFE Index, the NAREIT Equity REITs Index and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Total Return Index, respectively.  It is not possible to invest directly in a market index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
  AND THE WINNER IS... By  combining  four non-correlated asset classes, you were actually able to obtain a portfolio return which is  higher  than any of the four individual asset classes in which you invested and with less risk! The โ€œ25% of Eachโ€ Portfolio was rebalanced on January 1 of each year, 1972-2000.  Indices used to represent asset classes depicted above are the S&P 500, the Morgan Stanley EAFE Index, the NAREIT Equity REITs Index and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Total Return Index, respectively.  It is not possible to invest directly in a market index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Why Diversify?  Because Winners Rotate: The indices used for Large-cap, Small-cap, Real Estate, and Foreign Stocks are the S&P 500, Russell 2000, NAREIT Equity REITs Index, and the Morgan Stanley EAFE Index, respectively.  One cannot invest directly in an index.  Past performance does not guarantee future results.  LARGE- SMALL- REAL YEAR COMPANY COMPANY  ESTATE FOREIGN STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS 1982 21.6 25.0 21.6 -1.9 1983 22.6 29.1 30.6 23.7 1984 6.3 -7.3 20.9 7.4 1985 31.7 31.1 19.1 56.2 1986 18.7 5.7 19.2 69.4 1987 5.3 -8.8 -3.6 24.6 1988 16.6 25.0 13.5 28.3 1989 31.6 16.3 8.8 10.5 1990 -3.1 -19.5 -15.4 -23.5 1991 30.4 46.0 35.7 12.1 1992 7.6 18.4 14.6 -12.2 1993 10.1 18.9 19.7 32.6 1994 1.3 -1.8 3.2 7.8 1995 37.5 28.5 15.3 11.2 1996 23.0 16.5 35.3 6.1 1997 33.4 22.4 20.3 1.8 1998 28.6 -2.6 -17.5 20.0 1999 21.0 21.3 -4.6 27.0 2000 -9.1 -3.0 26.4 -14.0 2001 -11.9 2.5 13.9 -21.4 2002 -22.1 -20.5 3.9 -15.9
Which $100,000 investment would have a higher return over  20 years?   ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],This is a hypothetical case and is not representative of any specific securities ,[object Object]
#9  DO NOT TIME  THE MARKET ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Source: Hulbert Financial Digest.  It is not possible to invest directly in a market index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
#9  DO NOT TIME  THE MARKET Warren Buffett offered some useful counsel on this subject:  โ€œWe make no attempt to predict how security markets will behave; successfully forecasting short-term stock price movements is something we think neither we, nor anyone else, can doโ€ฆ Weโ€™ve long felt that the only value of stock market forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.โ€
#9  DO NOT TIME  THE MARKET Market Prophecy is a Waste of Time Predicted   Actual   Margin Year S&P   S&P   of Gain   Gain   Error 1996 6.1% 26.0% 19.9% 1997 3.4% 31.0% 27.6% 1998 4.9% 26.7% 21.8% 1999 0.1% 19.5% 19.5% 2000 6.1% -10.1% 16.2% 2001 18.0% -12.1% 30.0% 2002 15.0% -22.1% 37.1% Source:  Business Weekโ€™s Consensus Yearend Forecast  The S&P 500 index is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],REDUCE TIMING-RISK WITH DOLLAR-COST AVERAGING
Bear Market Building Dollar-Cost Averaging is a Potential Way to  Build Wealth in  Both  Bull  and  Bear Markets
Bear Market Building Dollar-Cost Averaging is An Effective Way to  Build Wealth in  Both  Bull  and  Bear Markets The above illustration is hypothetical; actual returns may vary in a different time period. Dollar cost averaging does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. For the strategy to be effective, you must continue to purchases shares in both up and down markets. As such, an investor needs to consider his/her financial ability to continuously invest through periods of low price levels.  It is not possible to invest directly in a stock market index.  Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Have your goals changed? Were the assumptions made two years ago still valid today? Do you need to adjustโ€ฆ Time, Risk Level, Amount Saved, Retirement Date, Desired Standard of Living at Retirement? #10 - UPDATE YOUR PLAN EVERY 2-YEARS
๏ˆ YEAR 1 HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN TO REACH MY FINANCIAL GOALS STARTING POINT
๏ˆ YEAR 1 YEAR 2 HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN TO REACH MY FINANCIAL GOALS STARTING POINT
๏ˆ YEAR 1 YEAR 2 HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN TO REACH MY FINANCIAL GOALS STARTING POINT
Time is on your side Source: Thomson Financial as of 12/31/02 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  The Standard & Poorโ€™s 500 Index is an unmanaged group of large-company stocks. It is not available for direct investment. During the periods shown, a number of index stocks could have had significantly negative performance. It is possible for index performance to be positively or negatively influenced by a relatively small number of stocks. Stocks have offered positive performance more often than not โ€˜ 02  โ€“ 22.1% Time is on your side Source: Thomson Financial as of 12/31/02 Past performance is no guarantee of future results.  The Standard & Poorโ€™s 500 Index is an unmanaged group of large-company stocks. It is not available for direct investment. During the periods shown, a number of index stocks could have had significantly negative performance. It is possible for index performance to be positively or negatively influenced by a relatively small number of stocks. 1954 52.6% โ€™ 58 43.4 โ€™ 95 37.6 โ€™ 75 37.3 โ€™ 97 33.4 โ€™ 80 32.5 โ€™ 85 31.7 โ€™ 89 31.7 โ€™ 55 31.6 โ€™ 91 30.5 โ€™ 72 18.9% โ€™ 98 28.6 โ€™86 18.7 โ€™ 61 26.8 โ€™79 18.5 โ€™ 51 24.0 โ€™52 18.4 โ€™ 92 7.6% โ€™ 67 24.0 โ€™88 16.6 โ€™56 6.6 1953 โ€“ 1.0% โ€™ 76 23.6 โ€™64 16.4 โ€™78 6.5 โ€™90  โ€“ 3.1 โ€™ 96 23.0 โ€™71 14.3 โ€™84 6.3 โ€™81  โ€“ 5.0 โ€™ 63 22.7 โ€™65 12.4 โ€™87 5.3 โ€™77  โ€“ 7.4 โ€™66  โ€“ 10.1% โ€™ 83 22.6 โ€™59 12.0 โ€™70 4.0 โ€™69  โ€“ 8.5 โ€™57  โ€“ 10.8 โ€™ 82 21.6 โ€™68 11.1 โ€™94 1.3 โ€™62  โ€“ 8.8 โ€™01  โ€“ 11.9 โ€˜02  โ€“ 22.1% โ€™ 99 21.1 โ€™93 10.1 โ€™60 0.5 โ€™00  โ€“ 9.1 โ€™73  โ€“ 14.8 โ€™74  โ€“ 26.9 Positive Returns Negative Returns 50-year 25-year 10-year 5-year 1-year S&P 500 Index 11.08% 12.60% 8.99% โ€“1.62% โ€“20.47% Average annual total returns through 9/30/02 > 20% 10% to 20% 0% to 10% -10% to 0% -20% to 0% < - 20% Stocks have offered positive performance more often than not 1954 52.6% โ€™ 58 43.4 โ€™ 95 37.6 โ€™ 75 37.3 โ€™ 97 33.4 โ€™ 80 32.5 โ€™ 85 31.7 โ€™ 89 31.7 โ€™ 55 31.6 โ€™ 91 30.5 โ€™72 18.9% โ€™ 98 28.6 โ€™86 18.7 โ€™ 61 26.8 โ€™79 18.5 โ€™ 51 24.0 โ€™52 18.4 โ€™92 7.6% โ€™ 67 24.0 โ€™88 16.6 โ€™56 6.6 1953 โ€“ 1.0% โ€™ 76 23.6 โ€™64 16.4 โ€™78 6.5 โ€™90  โ€“ 3.1 โ€™ 96 23.0 โ€™71 14.3 โ€™84 6.3 โ€™81  โ€“ 5.0 โ€™ 63 22.7 โ€™65 12.4 โ€™87 5.3 โ€™77  โ€“ 7.4 โ€™66  โ€“ 10.1% โ€™ 83 22.6 โ€™59 12.0 โ€™70 4.0 โ€™69  โ€“ 8.5 โ€™57  โ€“ 10.8 โ€™ 82 21.6 โ€™68 11.1 โ€™94 1.3 โ€™62  โ€“ 8.8 โ€™01  โ€“ 11.9 โ€˜ 02   โ€“ 22.1 % โ€™ 99 21.1 โ€™93 10.1 โ€™60 0.5 โ€™00  โ€“ 9.1 โ€™73  โ€“ 14.8 โ€™74  โ€“ 26.9 Positive returns Negative returns >20% 10% to 20% 0% to 10% โ€“ 10% to 0% โ€“ 20% to โ€“10% <โ€“20% 50-year 25-year 10-year 5-year 1-year S&P 500 Index 11.08% 12.60% 8.99% โ€“1.62% โ€“20.47% Average annual total returns  through 9/30/02
I already have a plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
WHAT ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],learned? have we
POSITIVES FOR 2005 Economy Earnings Inflation Productivity Interest Rates Cash Federal Reserve
[object Object],OUR COMMITMENT TO YOU
QUESTIONS? Securities offered through Royal Alliance Associates Inc., Member  NASD/SIPC   and an Investment Advisor

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Ten Ways to Wealth

  • 1. TEN WAYS TO WEALTH Lon W. Broske, CFS
  • 2. TEN WAYS TO WEALTH 1. Have a long-term plan to reach 2 your goals 2. Do not follow the crowd 3. Do not speculate 4. Do not buy stocks on rumor 5. Do not use margin
  • 3. TEN WAYS TO WEALTH 6. Hire a professional financial advisor 7. Do not let emotion overrule logic 8. Own a diversified portfolio 9. Do not time the market 10.Update your plan every two years
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7. HAZARDS OF CHASING PAST PERFORMANCE: Source: Commodity Systems, Inc., NAREIT Booms and Busts Examples of large variances from year to year Gold/ Equity Year Silver REIT Hi-Tech End Index Index Index 1993 85% 1994 -17% 1997 13% 1998 -22% 1999 111% 2000 -27% The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold/Silver Index, the Nareit Equity Index, and the Morgan Stanley Technology Index are all unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. 1999 was a period of unusually high performance for the technology sector. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 8. #3 DO NOT SPECULATE โ€œ Everyone knows that most people who speculate or gamble in the market lose money at it in the end. The people who persist in trying it are either unintelligent or willing to lose money for the fun of the gameโ€ฆIn any case, they are not really investors at all.โ€ -- Benjamin Graham R W = Q + T + D
  • 9. #4 DO NOT BUY STOCKS ON RUMOR
  • 10. #5 DO NOT USE MARGIN โ€œWhatโ€™s in Your Wallet?โ€
  • 11.
  • 12.
  • 13.
  • 14. #6 Hire a Professional Financial Advisor
  • 15.
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18. What do each of the following have in common?
  • 19. ANSWER: THEY ALL HAVE PERSONAL COACHES
  • 20. A Professional Advisorโ€™s Most Important Job According to University of Nebraska Sports Psychologist, Dr. Jack Stark: โ€œ Behavior management is probably the most important element in the service that a professional financial advisor can provide for his clients.โ€
  • 21. #7 DO NOT LET EMOTION OVERRULE LOGIC Do not let the news of the day distract you from your long-term plan.
  • 22. The Cycle of Market Emotions Optimism Excitement Thrill Euphoria Anxiety Denial Fear Desperation Capitulation Panic Despondency Depression Hope Relief Optimism Point of Maximum Financial Opportunity - Investors Realize Investment Opportunity Point of Maximum Financial Risk - Investors Beware of Higther Investment Risk
  • 23. Bear Markets May Provide Opportunity December 1957 43.4% 13.3% 12.8% June 1962 31.0% 14.2% 10.4% September 1966 30.5% 8.7% 6.9% June 1970 41.9% 9.3% 9.0% September 1974 38.1% 16.7% 15.6% July 1982 59.3% 29.6% 19.2% November 1987 23.3% 17.3% 18.7% October 1990 33.5% 17.3% 19.4% August 1998 39.8% 13.19 โ€“ Average 37.9% 15.8% 14.0% Source: Thomson Financial - Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Returns shown are for the Standard & Poorโ€™s 500 Index. The S&P 500 index is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly. End date of Bear market 10 years later 5 years later 1 years later
  • 24. S&P 500 vs โ€œPanic Pointsโ€ It is not possible to invest directly in a market index. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Since World War II
  • 25. If, at December 31, 1925, you knew what was coming 1929 - Stock Market crashes 1933 - U.S. banks closed, depression 1939 - World War II begins 1941 - Japan bombs Pearl Harbor 1950 - Korean War begins 1962 - Cuban Missile Crisis 1963 - Kennedy assassinated 1973 - OPEC oil embargo 1974 -Nixon Resigns, Watergate 1980 - Inflation rate rises to 14% 1982 - Worst recession in 50 years 1987 - Dow crashes 23 % in one day 1989 - S&L crisis, $500bn bailout 1990 - Persian Gulf War, recession 1997 - Asian financial crisis 1998 - Russian default 1999 - Clinton impeachment trials 2001 - Terrorist attacks on America
  • 26.
  • 27. If you answered โ€œstocksโ€, you would have been right: Ibbotson Associates cumulative total return indices for S&P 500 and 3-Month Treasury Bills. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Stocks T-Bills Reflects the growth of $10,000 invested on Dec. 31, 1927 to Dec. 31, 2004 $174,400 $9,799,411
  • 28. What if you wanted to seek preservation of principal?
  • 29. T-BILLS MAY NOT BE THE BEST SOLUTIONโ€ฆ.โ€ After inflation and taxes, $10,000 continuously reinvested in 3-month T-bills was worth only $5,221 . Your after-tax, inflation-adjusted purchasing power wouldโ€™ve been reduced by 48% after having invested for 76 years ! Ibbotson Associates cumulative total return indices for 3-Month Treasury Bills adjusted for both inflation and taxes. Investment period from 12/31/25 - 12/31/01. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Your results will vary. Taxes are based upon the top marginal personal income tax rate in the U.S. each year. Inflation is based upon the change in the Consumer Price Index.
  • 30. How diversified are you really?
  • 31. #8 OWN A DIVERSIFIED PORTFOLIO Assume it is 12/31/71 and you are blessed with perfect foresight about these annual asset class returns over the next 29 years. How would you allocate your retirement plan? Indices used to represent asset classes depicted above are the S&P 500, the Morgan Stanley EAFE Index, the NAREIT Equity REITs Index and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Total Return Index, respectively. It is not possible to invest directly in a market index. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
  • 32. AND THE WINNER IS... By combining four non-correlated asset classes, you were actually able to obtain a portfolio return which is higher than any of the four individual asset classes in which you invested and with less risk! The โ€œ25% of Eachโ€ Portfolio was rebalanced on January 1 of each year, 1972-2000. Indices used to represent asset classes depicted above are the S&P 500, the Morgan Stanley EAFE Index, the NAREIT Equity REITs Index and the Goldman Sachs Commodity Total Return Index, respectively. It is not possible to invest directly in a market index. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
  • 33. Why Diversify? Because Winners Rotate: The indices used for Large-cap, Small-cap, Real Estate, and Foreign Stocks are the S&P 500, Russell 2000, NAREIT Equity REITs Index, and the Morgan Stanley EAFE Index, respectively. One cannot invest directly in an index. Past performance does not guarantee future results. LARGE- SMALL- REAL YEAR COMPANY COMPANY ESTATE FOREIGN STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS STOCKS 1982 21.6 25.0 21.6 -1.9 1983 22.6 29.1 30.6 23.7 1984 6.3 -7.3 20.9 7.4 1985 31.7 31.1 19.1 56.2 1986 18.7 5.7 19.2 69.4 1987 5.3 -8.8 -3.6 24.6 1988 16.6 25.0 13.5 28.3 1989 31.6 16.3 8.8 10.5 1990 -3.1 -19.5 -15.4 -23.5 1991 30.4 46.0 35.7 12.1 1992 7.6 18.4 14.6 -12.2 1993 10.1 18.9 19.7 32.6 1994 1.3 -1.8 3.2 7.8 1995 37.5 28.5 15.3 11.2 1996 23.0 16.5 35.3 6.1 1997 33.4 22.4 20.3 1.8 1998 28.6 -2.6 -17.5 20.0 1999 21.0 21.3 -4.6 27.0 2000 -9.1 -3.0 26.4 -14.0 2001 -11.9 2.5 13.9 -21.4 2002 -22.1 -20.5 3.9 -15.9
  • 34.
  • 35.
  • 36.
  • 37. #9 DO NOT TIME THE MARKET Warren Buffett offered some useful counsel on this subject: โ€œWe make no attempt to predict how security markets will behave; successfully forecasting short-term stock price movements is something we think neither we, nor anyone else, can doโ€ฆ Weโ€™ve long felt that the only value of stock market forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.โ€
  • 38. #9 DO NOT TIME THE MARKET Market Prophecy is a Waste of Time Predicted Actual Margin Year S&P S&P of Gain Gain Error 1996 6.1% 26.0% 19.9% 1997 3.4% 31.0% 27.6% 1998 4.9% 26.7% 21.8% 1999 0.1% 19.5% 19.5% 2000 6.1% -10.1% 16.2% 2001 18.0% -12.1% 30.0% 2002 15.0% -22.1% 37.1% Source: Business Weekโ€™s Consensus Yearend Forecast The S&P 500 index is unmanaged and cannot be invested into directly.
  • 39.
  • 40. Bear Market Building Dollar-Cost Averaging is a Potential Way to Build Wealth in Both Bull and Bear Markets
  • 41. Bear Market Building Dollar-Cost Averaging is An Effective Way to Build Wealth in Both Bull and Bear Markets The above illustration is hypothetical; actual returns may vary in a different time period. Dollar cost averaging does not assure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. For the strategy to be effective, you must continue to purchases shares in both up and down markets. As such, an investor needs to consider his/her financial ability to continuously invest through periods of low price levels. It is not possible to invest directly in a stock market index. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
  • 42. Have your goals changed? Were the assumptions made two years ago still valid today? Do you need to adjustโ€ฆ Time, Risk Level, Amount Saved, Retirement Date, Desired Standard of Living at Retirement? #10 - UPDATE YOUR PLAN EVERY 2-YEARS
  • 43. ๏ˆ YEAR 1 HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN TO REACH MY FINANCIAL GOALS STARTING POINT
  • 44. ๏ˆ YEAR 1 YEAR 2 HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN TO REACH MY FINANCIAL GOALS STARTING POINT
  • 45. ๏ˆ YEAR 1 YEAR 2 HAVE A LONG-TERM PLAN TO REACH MY FINANCIAL GOALS STARTING POINT
  • 46. Time is on your side Source: Thomson Financial as of 12/31/02 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poorโ€™s 500 Index is an unmanaged group of large-company stocks. It is not available for direct investment. During the periods shown, a number of index stocks could have had significantly negative performance. It is possible for index performance to be positively or negatively influenced by a relatively small number of stocks. Stocks have offered positive performance more often than not โ€˜ 02 โ€“ 22.1% Time is on your side Source: Thomson Financial as of 12/31/02 Past performance is no guarantee of future results. The Standard & Poorโ€™s 500 Index is an unmanaged group of large-company stocks. It is not available for direct investment. During the periods shown, a number of index stocks could have had significantly negative performance. It is possible for index performance to be positively or negatively influenced by a relatively small number of stocks. 1954 52.6% โ€™ 58 43.4 โ€™ 95 37.6 โ€™ 75 37.3 โ€™ 97 33.4 โ€™ 80 32.5 โ€™ 85 31.7 โ€™ 89 31.7 โ€™ 55 31.6 โ€™ 91 30.5 โ€™ 72 18.9% โ€™ 98 28.6 โ€™86 18.7 โ€™ 61 26.8 โ€™79 18.5 โ€™ 51 24.0 โ€™52 18.4 โ€™ 92 7.6% โ€™ 67 24.0 โ€™88 16.6 โ€™56 6.6 1953 โ€“ 1.0% โ€™ 76 23.6 โ€™64 16.4 โ€™78 6.5 โ€™90 โ€“ 3.1 โ€™ 96 23.0 โ€™71 14.3 โ€™84 6.3 โ€™81 โ€“ 5.0 โ€™ 63 22.7 โ€™65 12.4 โ€™87 5.3 โ€™77 โ€“ 7.4 โ€™66 โ€“ 10.1% โ€™ 83 22.6 โ€™59 12.0 โ€™70 4.0 โ€™69 โ€“ 8.5 โ€™57 โ€“ 10.8 โ€™ 82 21.6 โ€™68 11.1 โ€™94 1.3 โ€™62 โ€“ 8.8 โ€™01 โ€“ 11.9 โ€˜02 โ€“ 22.1% โ€™ 99 21.1 โ€™93 10.1 โ€™60 0.5 โ€™00 โ€“ 9.1 โ€™73 โ€“ 14.8 โ€™74 โ€“ 26.9 Positive Returns Negative Returns 50-year 25-year 10-year 5-year 1-year S&P 500 Index 11.08% 12.60% 8.99% โ€“1.62% โ€“20.47% Average annual total returns through 9/30/02 > 20% 10% to 20% 0% to 10% -10% to 0% -20% to 0% < - 20% Stocks have offered positive performance more often than not 1954 52.6% โ€™ 58 43.4 โ€™ 95 37.6 โ€™ 75 37.3 โ€™ 97 33.4 โ€™ 80 32.5 โ€™ 85 31.7 โ€™ 89 31.7 โ€™ 55 31.6 โ€™ 91 30.5 โ€™72 18.9% โ€™ 98 28.6 โ€™86 18.7 โ€™ 61 26.8 โ€™79 18.5 โ€™ 51 24.0 โ€™52 18.4 โ€™92 7.6% โ€™ 67 24.0 โ€™88 16.6 โ€™56 6.6 1953 โ€“ 1.0% โ€™ 76 23.6 โ€™64 16.4 โ€™78 6.5 โ€™90 โ€“ 3.1 โ€™ 96 23.0 โ€™71 14.3 โ€™84 6.3 โ€™81 โ€“ 5.0 โ€™ 63 22.7 โ€™65 12.4 โ€™87 5.3 โ€™77 โ€“ 7.4 โ€™66 โ€“ 10.1% โ€™ 83 22.6 โ€™59 12.0 โ€™70 4.0 โ€™69 โ€“ 8.5 โ€™57 โ€“ 10.8 โ€™ 82 21.6 โ€™68 11.1 โ€™94 1.3 โ€™62 โ€“ 8.8 โ€™01 โ€“ 11.9 โ€˜ 02 โ€“ 22.1 % โ€™ 99 21.1 โ€™93 10.1 โ€™60 0.5 โ€™00 โ€“ 9.1 โ€™73 โ€“ 14.8 โ€™74 โ€“ 26.9 Positive returns Negative returns >20% 10% to 20% 0% to 10% โ€“ 10% to 0% โ€“ 20% to โ€“10% <โ€“20% 50-year 25-year 10-year 5-year 1-year S&P 500 Index 11.08% 12.60% 8.99% โ€“1.62% โ€“20.47% Average annual total returns through 9/30/02
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49. POSITIVES FOR 2005 Economy Earnings Inflation Productivity Interest Rates Cash Federal Reserve
  • 50.
  • 51. QUESTIONS? Securities offered through Royal Alliance Associates Inc., Member NASD/SIPC and an Investment Advisor

Editor's Notes

  1. Mandatory script: Okay, you understand that historically stocks have offered better returns. But arenโ€™t they pretty volatile? Yes, they can be, and weโ€™re seeing that right now. But the fact remains, if you look at the long term, stocks have offered positive performance more often than not.