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Nielsen presentation q42014 fmcg update

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Nielsen presentation q42014 fmcg update

  1. 1. VIETNAM FMCG TODAY AND TOMORROW Vaughan Ryan, Christoph Michel 2nd March 2015 A SHARING SESSION WITH METRO C&C VIETNAM
  2. 2. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 2 SLUGGISH GROWTH GROWING EXPORTS MODERATE INFLATION CPI EXPORT GROWTH GDP 2013 2014 TARGET 2014 ACTUAL Source: GSO Source: GSO Source: GSO Source: GSO TWO STREAMS ARE DRIVING VIETNAM'S ECONOMY
  3. 3. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 3 . 4.1% -1.4% 18.5% 13.1% 14.5% 7.4% -1.5% -2.5% -5.4% -2.0% 1.3% 1.1% 8.1% 1.0% 25.9% 18.0% 18.8% 11.5% 2.1% 1.1% -2.2% 0.3% 3.4% 2.4% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth Fast Moving Consumer Goods dynamics - total 6 cities (TT+MT excl. Coop) Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago VOLATILITY MAKES IT HARD TO PREDICT FUTURE TRENDS
  4. 4. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 4 -1.5% 15.4% 4.2% -1.1%-2.2% -5.7% -1.7% 1.0% -1.1% 1.3% 19.7% 8.2% 2.6%2.1% -2.1% 1.3% 3.3% -0.7% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% Traditional Trade 6 cities Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago Fast Moving Consumer Goods dynamics - Traditional Trade vs Modern Trade Unite Value change Volume change Nominal growth -3.8% -3.4% -7.1% -1.6% -2.8% -1.2% -3.9% -3.2% -6.0% -2.8% 1.0% -3.1% 0.9% 0.3%-0.5% -3.2% -3.2% -4.8% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% MT HCM and HN excl. Coop Mart Like-for-like 2014 WAS CHALLENGING ESPECIALLY IN MT
  5. 5. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 5 -4.8% -1.5% 3.1% -0.8% -9.7% -10.2% -9.9% -2.1% 2.7% 3.8% -0.2% 1.1% 7.8% 4.2% -5.4% -6.4% -6.8% -0.1% 5.0% 6.5% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% On Premise - 6 cities Unit value change Volume change Nominal growth Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago On-Premise Categories include Soft drinks, Gums, Beer, Energy Drinks, RTDM, RTDT, RTDC, Fruit Juice, Package Water, Sport Drinks and Cigarette Off -premise retrieved for all on-going tracking categories Fast Moving Consumer Goods dynamics - On premise ON PREMISE DRIVES RECENT FMCG GROWTH
  6. 6. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 6 97 98 99 98 102 106 Source: Asia Pacific Consumer Confidence Report (Q4 - 2014) All respondents n = 10134 CONFIDENCE REACHES A 4-YEAR-HIGH LEVEL… Vietnam is among top 10 most confident countries globally CCI Q4’14 - Top 10 countries globally INDONESIA INDIA PHILIPPINES UAE THAILAND CHINA UNITED STATES HONG KONG VIETNAM DENMARK 129 121 120 114 111 106 108 107 107 104 CCI Vietnam - from Q3’13 to Q4’14
  7. 7. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 7 …YET PEOPLE REMAIN CAUTIOUS Source: Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index – Q4’14 Note: Q: How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses : All respondents who answered Yes to Q11 (1 Code) n=500 1 2 3 4 5 Health The Economy Job security Work/life Balance Increase food price VIETNAM TOP CONCERN Q4’14 32 34 35 40 77 Out of home entertainment New Technology Products New Clothes Holidays/ Vacations Put into saving +1 +7 +9 +2 Q4 - 2014 Change from Q4’13 +3
  8. 8. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 8 NIELSEN TRACKED CATEGORIES Total 50 categories BEVERAGE Beer CSD Fruit juice Instant coffee Package water Ready to drink coffee Ready to drink tea Sport drink Tea bag Tonic food drink HOUSEHOLD CARE Dishwashing liquids Fabric softener Household cleaner Household Insec. Aerosol & Coil Laundry products Tissue (Napkin, Toilet, Kitchen ) PERSONAL CARE Body Cream Lotion Deodorants Eyecare Facial Care Products Feminine Protection Hair Conditioner Mouth Wash Personal Wash Shampoo Toilet Soap Toothbrush Toothpaste Insec. Lotion Facial tissue Hair colorant FOOD Biscuits & Pie Bouillon MSG Cheese Chilli Sauce Cooking Oil Gums Instant Noodles Mayonnaise Meal Maker Sauces (Soy, Fish & Oyster) Snack Candy MILK-BASED PRODUCTS Milk Powder Spoon Yoghurt Sweetened Condense Milk Ready to drink milk BABY PRODUCTS Baby Cereal Baby Diaper CIG Cigarette
  9. 9. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 9 37% BEVERAGE ONLY BEVERAGE HAS BEEN ABLE TO REALLY RECOVER MILK BASE 17% FOOD 15% Unite Value change Volume change Nominal growth Super Category Contribution and Growth - total 6 cities (TT+MT excl. Coop) Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago. Beverage: includes On-Premise -1.7% -2.8% -4.0% 3.0% 8.8% 11.0% 1.4% 3.8% -3.1% -3.2% -1.8% -5.6% 3.2% 0.9% -2.3% 0.0% 0.2% 1.1%
  10. 10. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 10 8% CIGARETTE 14% WHILST OTHER CATEGORIES STILL SUFFER PERSONAL CARE 6% HOME CARE BABY CARE 4% Unite Value change Volume change Nominal growth Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago 10.0% 4.8% 0.6% 2.6% 3.6% -1.9% 16.3% 8.3% -1.3% -1.1% 2.4% -0.9% 15.5% 19.6% 12.5% 4.5% 4.1% -4.6% -1.2 -1.3 -2.0 -1.9 -1.4 -2.8 Super Category Contribution and Growth - total 6 cities (TT+MT excl. Coop)
  11. 11. THREE TRENDS TO WATCH FOR Urbanization Upgradation Sophistication Convenience ExperienceValue
  12. 12. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 12Source: Banners’ official website +5% +0% Q4’14 vs. Q3’14 Number of Stores MINIMARTS ARE GAINING MOMENTUM
  13. 13. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 13Source: Banners’ official website / Shopper Trends Number of Stores CONVENIENCE STORES EXPAND RAPIDLY • Notable expansions in Q4 are from Family Mart and Circle K. +6% +2% +10% +29% Q4’14 vs. Q3’14 Need it now… On-the-go… Hanging out
  14. 14. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 14 3% 12% 0% 43% Q4’14 vs. Q3’14 Number of Stores 7% SUPERMARKET STORES ARE EXPANDING THEIR FOOTPRINT Source: Banners’ official website
  15. 15. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 15 E-COMMERCE OPPORTUNITY IS EMERGING 2014 vs 2011: Laptop grows ~ 4x, Smartphone grows ~ 8x TOP 4 SUPPORTED PLATFORMS FOR INTERNET ACCESS 81% OWN LAPTOPS 74 % OWN DESKTOPS 37 % OWN SMART TVs 82% OWN SMARTPHONES Cross-platform study in 2014 in 6 key cities, internet access from respondents; Global e-commerce study 2014 51% Airline ticket/ reservation 28% Clothes/ Shoes/ Accessories 26% Digital devices (TV, cameras...) TOP 3 CATEGORIES WITH INTENTION TO SHOP ONLINE TOP 3 TIPING POINTS SAFE SIMPLE SAVING
  16. 16. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 16 SHOPPERS GET INCREASINGLY PRICE SAVVY Lowest price perception Store attribute ranking 1. Convenient to get to 2. Good deals and promos 3. Easy to find what I need 4. Low prices 39% “I know the price of most of the items and always notice when the price changes” 33% “I actively search for promotions” 2008 2014 Source: Shopper Trends study 2008-2014, HCMC, HN, DaNang, Can Tho
  17. 17. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 17 MORE PURCHASING POWER Source: Monthly income per capita: GSO 2012 Occupation structure & Urbanization rate: Rural Census 2011 Education level: Nielsen Rural Syndicated Study 2009 & Nielsen Rural 2014 BUT ALSO DON’T FORGET THE MASSES Of the population live in rural Vietnam 68%
  18. 18. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 18 MORE PURCHASING POWER Source: Monthly income per capita: GSO 2012 Occupation structure & Urbanization rate: Rural Census 2011 Education level: Nielsen Rural Syndicated Study 2009 & Nielsen Rural 2014 TO BE SUCCESSFUL IN VIETNAM YOU MUST EMBRACE RURAL More than 2X the size of urban Young and increasingly dynamic Over 750K stores Watch TV everyday Not going to go away
  19. 19. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 19 2.0% -4.4% 5.9% -1.9% -4.4% -7.9% -4.1% -0.8% 0.1% 6.7% 0.5% 10.8% 2.1% -0.4% -3.3%0.1% 2.7% 2.7% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Total Urban 5.1% -5.2% 9.4% -0.2% -3.7% -8.6% -6.3% -2.7%-2.4% 8.1% -1.4% 11.8% 2.2% 0.0% -3.7% -1.5% 0.4% -0.7% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Total Rural Unit Value change Volume change Nominal growth Fast Moving Consumer Goods dynamics - Urban vs Rural Source: Nielsen Retail Index – Versus year ago Note: This slide only includes Feminine Protection, Hair Conditioner, Shampoo, Toothpaste, Toothbrush, Personal Wash, Dishwashing Liquids, Fabric Softener, Laundry Products, Bouillon-MSG, RTDM, Soft Drink, Energy Drink, RTDT, Cigarette RURAL IS MORE ‘EXPRESSIVE’ THAN URBAN GREW FASTER IN UPTURN BUT DECLINES STEEPER IN DOWNTURN 55% 45% Rural Urban
  20. 20. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 20 WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR METRO Brick & click Bang for the buck Customer Connection
  21. 21. Copyright©2012TheNielsenCompany.Confidentialandproprietary. 21 MORE PURCHASING POWER YOU NEED KNOW WHAT MAKES THEM TICK REACH WHO WHAT HOW REACTRESONATE Driving differentiated outcomes for your business in Vietnam

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