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Gennady Perviy: Presentation report modernization

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Gennady Perviy: Presentation report modernization

  1. 1. The main task of modernizing the post-Soviet countries. Soviet Union and Eastern Europe were faced with the necessity of change(1) single-party regimes - competitive democracy, (2) of the planning system in theeconomy - market mechanisms, and (3) imperial unit - the nation state. The mainproblem of modernization - the simultaneity of political, economic and socialtransformation. fork political modernization - three ways of development: - Establishing the foundations of western democracy, the most consistentcourse of reform, a focus on the European community - Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia. - roll back to previous positions, strengthening of authoritarian orauthoritarian-democratic tendencies - Russia, Belarus, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan,Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Azerbaijan. - Vibrating "democratic regimes: the balance between authoritariantendencies and a desire for democratic values - Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia andMoldova. As shown by the results of parliamentary elections in Ukraine andKyrgyzstan, the political regimes are not enjoy political stability, but adhere to thenorms and requirements of international institutions in forming governments,ensuring political pluralism and freedom of political choice, not restrictingfreedom of speech, mass marches and rallies of citizens, not shutting down non-state and opposition media. Speaking about the prospects of the CIS, should not forget that the processof modernizing political systems of neighboring states are in a mode differentspeeds. If Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan arefocused on the traditional political culture, which largely guarantees the stability ofthese states in the coming years, then states like Belarus or Ukraine will certainlyfollow the path of modernization and convergence of these countries with the EUwill inevitably . For experts it is no secret that the Islamist movements of various kinds areable to organize in Central Asia rather stable structures that have the support of the
  2. 2. local population that can not always be said of governments. Especially troublingis infiltration of Islamist movements and attitudes on the territory of the FerghanaValley, which has become in recent years in the region of poverty, instability andIslamic radicalism. But in other regions of Central Asia, Islamists have made greatstrides. In all the countries of Central Asia a process of democratic transformationhas a special character. Is to allocate at least three key features of transformation: 1. The transformation process is based on ethnicity. The revival of nationalidentity in the region was due to non-indigenous population. As a result, themajority of citizens - ethnic Slavs - emigrated and still continues to leave CentralAsia. In addition to the civil war in Tajikistan, the main causes of emigration arediscontent with steps to improve the status of national language to the state andconcern that the Russian minority in this case can be put at a disadvantage. According to official statistics, the population of Kazakhstan is constantlydecreasing as a result of emigration exceeded immigration. For the I half of 2000amounted to a net emigration of 53,239 people compared to 45,491 people duringthe same period in 1999. More than half of immigrants - ethnic Russian. A similarphenomenon occurs in all countries of the subregion. The share of the Russianpopulation, which does not belong to the main ethnic group in Kyrgyzstan, downfrom 8% in 1989 to 3% in 2000. From Tajikistan has left more than 75% of suchresidents, and currently is a minority of about 2.7%. Leaving the country citizensare taken away, along with a knowledge and management experience. With respectto institutional reform, policy, focusing on ethnicity and affects the humanresource capacity in public administration. Today, Russian-speaking population expelled from the higher managementlevel the political process in all five countries. Thus, emigration indirectly affectsthe implementation of measures for economic stabilization and institutionaldevelopment. 2. The second important feature that slows the development of systems ofdemocratic institutions, is traditionally existing clan structure of societies in
  3. 3. Central Asia, which is fully affect policy-making process in these countries.Historically, all the peoples of Central Asia are divided into clans, which are aterritorial gang. In this regard, the political status quo in any country in CentralAsia is a reflection of the balance of power and struggle between clans, which havebeen established at a particular time. To maintain political stability is veryimportant to maintain this balance. Even under the Soviet regime in communistgovernment bodies observed the distribution of power between the clans. Situation in contemporary Central Asia can not be explained adequatelywithout taking this phenomenon into account. Change the clan structure that servesas the basis for the ruling elite, is far more difficult task than institutional reform. Very often, modern and semi-democratic system of government is only a"thin shell" clan power structure. This phenomenon is not new, and it is not aspecific feature of Central Asia. 3. Third feature that is important for understanding the political realities ofCentral Asia is a significant disparity in the laws laid down a model of publicadministration and the main mechanisms of the political process. The main cause of inhibition of the process of modernization of politicalsystems in post-Soviet countries is the unresolved issues at the legislative level, aclear distinction between the functions of political and economic actors.