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WHICH HALF IS WASTED?



   N.B. (Almost) All images come from
                                        2
HI I’M RICK.



               3
I USED TO WORK HERE.
                   4
THEN I DID SOME
  INVESTING.




                  5
NOW I WORK HERE.   6
I’VE BEEN
WORKING ON A
BOOK CALLED
WHICH HALF IS
WASTED.
                7
LET’S TALK ABOUT
       ECONOMICS
Without talking about Ron Paul or Schumpeter.

      And even really not much Keynes.




                                                8
COLLEGE.
           9
10
Robert    Adam
Malthus   Smith


                  11
HOMO ECONOMICUS
                  12
“[POLITICAL ECONOMY]...IS
                                                             CONCERNED WITH [MAN]
                                                             SOLELY AS A BEING WHO
                                                             DESIRES TO POSSESS WEALTH,
                                                             AND WHO IS CAPABLE OF
                                                             JUDGING THE COMPARATIVE
                                                             EFFICACY OF MEANS FOR
     John Stuart                                             OBTAINING THAT END.”
        Mill


Mill, John Stuart. "On the Definition of Political Economy, and on the Method of Investigation Proper to It," London and Westminster Review, October 1836.   13
Essays on Some Unsettled Questions of Political Economy, 2nd ed. London: Longmans, Green, Reader & Dyer, 1874.
ONE PROBLEM:
HOMO ECONOMICUS
DOES NOT EXIST.



                  14
15
Alfred     John
Marshall   Maynard
           Keynes

                     16
AN EXTERNALITY IS A COST OR
               BENEFIT THAT IS NOT
               TRANSMITTED THROUGH
               PRICES.


Arthur Cecil
   Pigou

                                             17
EXTERNALITIES CAN BE POSITIVE
OR NEGATIVE.
ADVERTISING IS AN
EXTERNALITY. BUT
POSITIVE OR
NEGATIVE?
                    19
A PENDULUM HAS SWUNG
THROUGHOUT THE HISTORY OF
ADVERTISING                 20
"HALF THE MONEY I
SPEND ON
ADVERTISING IS
WASTED; THE
TROUBLE IS I DON'T
KNOW WHICH HALF."
   – JOHN WANAMAKER, CIRCA 1920




                                  21
RATIONAL   EMOTIONAL




                       22
- DIRECT   MARKETING   - BRAND   MARKETING
- “SCIENCE-BASED”      - CREATIVE
 ADVERTISING            ADVERTISING
- “SELLING   COSTS”    - TRADEMARKS




                                             23
THEORY #1:
INFORMATION
             24
25
THIS IS NOT
FOR LACK OF INFORMATION




                          26
THEORY #2:
SIGNALLING
             27
A POSITIVE
       ASSOCIATION
          BETWEEN
   ADVERTISING AND
           QUALITY.
 ADVERTISING THUS
MAY SIGNAL QUALITY,
   REGARDLESS OF
WHAT THE AD SAYS. 28
NOTHING KILLS A BAD
PRODUCT FASTER
THAN GOOD
               We see this in tech too

ADVERTISING.
               find that quote




  – BILL BERNBACH




                                         29
THEORY #3:
BRANDS.
             30
Joan       Edward
Robinson    Hastings
           Chamberlain

                         31
THE MOTHER AND FATHER
   OF ADVERTISING
     ECONOMICS.         32
IN 1933 CHAMBERLIN BROKE
                                                     DOWN ADVERTISING’S
                                                     ECONOMIC ROLE INTO TWO
                                                     PARTS: THAT OF THE
                                                     TRADEMARK, OR BRAND,
                                                     AND THAT OF “SELLING
                                                     COSTS,” OR THE SPREADING
                                                     OF INFORMATION AND THE
                                                     REPETITION OF THAT
                                                     INFORMATION, AKA DIRECT.
                                                                                33
Theory of Monopolistic Competition. A worthy read.
David       Bill
Ogilvy   Bernbach


                    34
David       Bill
Ogilvy   Bernbach


                    35
“I DO NOT REGARD
ADVERTISING AS                         “I WARN YOU
ENTERTAINMENT OR                 AGAINST BELIEVING
AN ART FORM, BUT                  THAT ADVERTISING
AS A MEDIUM OF                       IS A SCIENCE.”
                quote from confessions
                about headline size
INFORMATION.”
                                   — BILL BERNBACH
—DAVID OGILVY




                                                      36
David       Bill
Ogilvy   Bernbach


                    37
Howard     Alex
 Draft   Bogusky


                   38
39
BRAND + DIRECT =



                   40
360 DEGREES.
THE NAYSAYERS
“THE QUASI-PEACEABLE GENTLEMAN
            OF LEISURE, THEN, NOT ONLY
            CONSUMES OF THE STAFF OF LIFE
            BEYOND THE MINIMUM REQUIRED
            FOR SUBSISTENCE AND PHYSICAL
            EFFICIENCY, BUT HIS CONSUMPTION
            ALSO UNDERGOES A SPECIALISATION
            AS REGARDS THE QUALITY OF THE
            GOODS CONSUMED. HE CONSUMES
            FREELY AND OF THE BEST, IN FOOD,
            DRINK, NARCOTICS, SHELTER,
            SERVICES, ORNAMENTS, APPAREL,
Thorstein   WEAPONS AND ACCOUTREMENTS,
 Veblen     AMUSEMENTS, AMULETS, AND IDOLS
            OR DIVINITIES.”
                – THEORY OF THE LEISURE CLASS
                                               43
"THE MELANCHOLY
DISCIPLES OF
THORSTEIN VEBLEN
WOULD HAVE DESPISED
THIS SHIRT."

                      44
“HARMONY THEREFORE, BETWEEN
            CONSUMER PREFERENCES AND THE
            PATTERN OF PRODUCTION MAY SIMPLY
            INDICATE THE ADAPTATION OF MAN'S
            TASTES TO THE RIGID REQUIREMENTS
            OF THE PRODUCTIVE SYSTEM, AND
            THAT WOULD HARDLY BE A CAUSE FOR
            SELF-CONGRATULATION.”


  Tibor            – THE JOYLESS ECONOMY
Scitovsky


                                           45
ADVERTISING HAS US
CHASING CARS AND
CHOTHES, WORKING
JOBS WE HATE SO WE
CAN BUY SHIT WE
DON’T NEED.
“WHEN ANY SPACE IS BOUGHT, EVEN IF
         ONLY TEMPORARILY, IT CHANGES TO FIT
         ITS SPONSORS. AND THE MORE
         PREVIOUSLY PUBLIC SPACES ARE SOLD
         TO CORPORATIONS OR BRANDED BY
         THEM, THE MORE WE AS CITIZENS ARE
         FORCED TO PLAY BY CORPORATE
         RULES TO ACCESS OUR OWN
         CULTURE.”

Naomi                – NO LOGO
 Klein


                                           47
“THE PROTECTION GIVEN BY CLOTHES
            IS EXCLUSIVE TO THOSE WHO USE
            THEM. BUT WHEN PEOPLE ARE NOT
            SATISFIED WITH A MERE COVERING
            AND PROVIDE THEMSELVES WITH FINE
            CLOTHING PLEASING TO THE EYE, THE
            ENJOYMENT IS SHARED BY ALL WHO
            MEET HIM.”
                     – THE NEED FOR FAITH
Sir Ralph
Hawtrey


                                                49
“MARKETERS EXPLOIT THE FOCUSING
           ILLUSION. WHEN PEOPLE ARE INDUCED
           TO BELIEVE THAT THEY “MUST HAVE” A
           GOOD, THEY GREATLY EXAGGERATE
           THE DIFFERENCE THAT THE GOOD WILL
           MAKE TO THE QUALITY OF THEIR LIFE.”


                     – THINKING FAST AND SLOW
  Daniel
Kahneman


                                             50
WE ALL HAVE TO COME TO
  TERMS WITH THESE.



                         51
THE GOOD NEWS

            52
“ADVERTISING, LIKE DEMOCRACY, IS
              TERRIBLE IN PRINCIPLE BUT BETTER
              THAN ANY KNOWN ALTERNATIVE IN
              PRACTICE.”




  Richard
Schmalensee


                                                 53
THE RETURN FROM ADVERTISING AND
             THEREBY ACHIEVING AN INITIAL SALE
             MAY BE GREATER FOR A HIGH-
             QUALITY PRODUCT, DUE TO THE
             GREATER REPEAT PURCHASES THAT
             COME FROM SATISFIED CUSTOMERS



Phillip J.
Nelson


                                                 54
“EVEN THE CENTRAL PLANNERS
        IN THE OLD SOVIET UNION HAD
        TO ESTABLISH ‘PRODUCTION
        MARKS’ TO STOP
        MANUFACTURERS CUTTING
        CORNERS ON QUALITY.”


                                                       55
http://www.economist.com/node/770992?story_id=770992
ACCORDINGLY, EVEN NON-PRICE
             ADVERTISING CAN LOWER PRICES,
             AND THIS ASSOCIATION APPEARS TO
             DERIVE IN PART FROM THE ENTRY OF
             LARGE-SCALE FIRMS INTO MARKETS
             THAT ALLOW NON-PRICE ADVERTISING


Lee Benham



                                                56
“THE NEWSPAPER INDUSTRY PROVIDES
                                                                         ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF SUBSIDISED
                                                                         COMMODITIES, BELONGING TO THIS
                                                                         CLASS; HERE THE SERVICE
                                                                         PROVIDED TO THE PUBLIC IS
                                                                         SUBSIDISED (THE PAPERS ARE SOLD
                                                                         TO THE PUBLIC BELOW COST), IN
                                                                         ORDER TO ENHANCE THE DEMAND FOR
                                                                         ADVERTISING SPACE, BY THE
                                                                         ADVERTISERS.”
                    Nicholas
                     Kaldor


                                                                                                        57
Kaldor, N. 1950. The economic aspects of advertising. Review of Economic Studies 18, 1–27.
UH OH.

         58
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE INTERNET?
                           59
60
IN 2011, WEB 2.0
                                                             VISIONARY TIM O'REILLY
                                                             BLITHELY COMMENTED
                                                             THAT GOOGLE "SOLVED
                                                             THE PROBLEM POSED
                                                             BY JOHN WANAMAKER
                                                             A CENTURY AGO"



                                                                                      61
https://plus.google.com/107033731246200681024/posts/2NU9pZEZ5t1
ADVERTISING IN THE US
  $114 Billion Total Ad Spend, web is 30% and growing


        70




        53




        35




        18




         0
                 2006          2007     2008    2009    2010   2011   2012   2013   2014    2015       2016

                      US Online Ad Spend, in Billions
                                                                                           Projected
                                                                                                              62
Source: Kantar Media, IAB, E-Marketer
BUT THAT MONEY IS COMING
        FROM PRINT, NOT TV
      40

      30

      20

      10

        0
                      2006                     2007       2008     2009        2010             2011
                                      Online Ad Spend Percentage          Print Ad Percentage


                                                                                                       63
Source: Business Insider, via Company filings
ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING
   AT IT IS TO SAY THAT
   ONLINE AD MONEY IS
  COMING FROM DIRECT
    AND NOT BRAND.

                          64
THIS
DOESN’T
SEEM
SURPRISING

         65
TELEVISION ADVERTISING IS
         ACTUALLY GROWING
                                                     (I MEAN, NOT A LOT, BUT EVERYONE THINKS IT’S
                                                                SHRINKING. BUT IT ISN’T.)


           42



           41



           40
                          2006                 2007                  2008     2009           2010   2011
                       US Television Ad Spend as a percentage of total



                                                                                                           66
Source: Business Insider, via Company filings
AND THIS, EVEN THOUGH
                THEIR AUDIENCE IS
                   SHRINKING.
           4
           2
           0
          -2
          -4
          -6
          -8
           May ‘11 June ‘11 July ‘11 Sep ‘11 Oct ‘11 Nov ‘11 Dec ‘11 Jan ‘12 Feb ‘12 March ‘12


                                   Change in Live + Same Day Ratings; Persons 2+; Total Day (percent)


                                                                                                        67
Source: Business Insider, via Company filings
SO $48 BILLION IS STILL
BEING SPENT ON TV EVEN
THOUGH THE AUDIENCE IS
SHRINKING.


                          68
WTF?
       69
THE INTERNET HAS
CAPTURED DIRECT
AD MONEY FROM
PRINT, BUT IT IS STILL
REALLY BAD AT
BRAND MARKETING
                         70
“THE WEB HAS MEGA-
OPTIMIZED THE SMALLEST
CHUNK OF ADVERTISING,
WHICH IS DIRECT
RESPONSE... IT’S NOT
INTENDED TO MAKE YOU
FEEL SOMETHING FOR THE
BRAND.”
            DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO, JULY 2012

                                                71
81% OF ALL ONLINE AD DOLLARS
       ARE SPENT ON SEARCH OR BANNERS.




http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_archive/press_release/pr-101112
                                                                                                       72
THIS IS EVEN MORE DEPRESSING - THE
       CONCEPT OF BRAND LIFT AS A PRICING
       MODEL IS NON-EXISTENT.




http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_archive/press_release/pr-101112
                                                                                                       73
74
WEB ADS ARE NO LONGER
ALIGNED WITH OUR MEDIA




                         75
SOCIAL IS ERODING THE
ABILITY FOR A BRAND TO
CONTROL THE NARRATIVE.   76
SOME BRANDS DO IT
WELL, BUT THEY ARE
THE EXCEPTION, NOT
THE RULE.




                     77
?
AdWords



              78
AdWords   The First
           Banner


                      79
THIS HAS BEEN MY JAM SINCE I GOT STARTED IN
ADVERTISING.

                                              80
AdWords     Viral
          Marketing


                      81
AdWords   YouTube



                    82
AdWords   Buzzfeed



                     83
Brand   Timeline
Pages


                   84
Old Twitter   New Profile
  Pages         Pages


                           85
86
THIS IS NOT
ACADEMIC.




              87
“STUDIES... INDICATE THAT COMPANIES WITH
STRONG BRANDS OUTPERFORM THE MARKET
IN RESPECT OF SEVERAL INDICES. IT HAS
ALSO BEEN SHOWN THAT A PORTFOLIO
WEIGHTED BY THE BRAND VALUES OF THE BEST
GLOBAL BRANDS PERFORMS SIGNIFICANTLY
BETTER THAN MORGAN STANLEY’S GLOBAL
MSCI INDEX AND THE AMERICAN-FOCUSED S&P
500 INDEX.”



                                           88
BrandChannel
“ADVERTISING
REALLY
TURNS OUR
STOMACHS.”
  DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO, JUNE 2010
                                      89
“CAN YOU REMEMBER
THE LAST TWITTER AD
YOU’VE SEEN, THE
LAST FACEBOOK AD?”
          DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO


                                   90
YOU’VE ALREADY SEEN
OUR AD UNIT. IT’S THE
TUMBLR POST.
          DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO




                                   91
Google   Tumblr
Search   Search

                  92
93
94
95
adidasfootball




                 96
40,620 Notes




adidasfootball
adidasfootball




                 98
Hipster Runoff




                 SOUP
                        100
“ADVERTISING
SHOULD NOT BE
ABOLISHED, BUT
IT MUST BE
REFORMED.”


             101
ADVERTISING IS THE EDGE OF WHAT
               PEOPLE KNOW HOW TO DO AND OF
               HUMAN EXPERIENCE AND IT EXPLAINS
               THE LATEST WAYS PROGRESS HAS
               CHANGED US TO OURSELVES. FOR ME,
               THAT DEFINITION OF ADVERTISING IS
               REALLY INTERESTING AND IS
               PROFOUNDLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
               LATEST SILICON VALLEY DEFINITION
               OF ADVERTISING – WHERE YOU HAVE
               PEOPLE PAY FOR WHO THEY CAN BE
Jaron Lanier   CONNECTED TO....




                                               102
Apologies and thanks to the source: Luma Partners. Hate the game, not the player.
SERIOUSLY.
SCREW
THIS.
Apologies and thanks to the source: Luma Partners. Hate the game, not the player.
THE DEFINING
ADVERTISING ISSUES OF
OUR TIME:



                    105
SOCIAL:
BRING
BRANDS TO
THE PEOPLE.
107
BRAND:
BRING BRAND
TO THE WEB.


              108
SOCIETAL:
BRING BACK
THE NEWS.


             109
110

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WHICH HALF OF ADVERTISING IS WASTED

  • 1. WHICH HALF IS WASTED? N.B. (Almost) All images come from 2
  • 3. I USED TO WORK HERE. 4
  • 4. THEN I DID SOME INVESTING. 5
  • 5. NOW I WORK HERE. 6
  • 6. I’VE BEEN WORKING ON A BOOK CALLED WHICH HALF IS WASTED. 7
  • 7. LET’S TALK ABOUT ECONOMICS Without talking about Ron Paul or Schumpeter. And even really not much Keynes. 8
  • 9. 10
  • 10. Robert Adam Malthus Smith 11
  • 12. “[POLITICAL ECONOMY]...IS CONCERNED WITH [MAN] SOLELY AS A BEING WHO DESIRES TO POSSESS WEALTH, AND WHO IS CAPABLE OF JUDGING THE COMPARATIVE EFFICACY OF MEANS FOR John Stuart OBTAINING THAT END.” Mill Mill, John Stuart. "On the Definition of Political Economy, and on the Method of Investigation Proper to It," London and Westminster Review, October 1836. 13 Essays on Some Unsettled Questions of Political Economy, 2nd ed. London: Longmans, Green, Reader & Dyer, 1874.
  • 14. 15
  • 15. Alfred John Marshall Maynard Keynes 16
  • 16. AN EXTERNALITY IS A COST OR BENEFIT THAT IS NOT TRANSMITTED THROUGH PRICES. Arthur Cecil Pigou 17
  • 17. EXTERNALITIES CAN BE POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE.
  • 18. ADVERTISING IS AN EXTERNALITY. BUT POSITIVE OR NEGATIVE? 19
  • 19. A PENDULUM HAS SWUNG THROUGHOUT THE HISTORY OF ADVERTISING 20
  • 20. "HALF THE MONEY I SPEND ON ADVERTISING IS WASTED; THE TROUBLE IS I DON'T KNOW WHICH HALF." – JOHN WANAMAKER, CIRCA 1920 21
  • 21. RATIONAL EMOTIONAL 22
  • 22. - DIRECT MARKETING - BRAND MARKETING - “SCIENCE-BASED” - CREATIVE ADVERTISING ADVERTISING - “SELLING COSTS” - TRADEMARKS 23
  • 24. 25
  • 25. THIS IS NOT FOR LACK OF INFORMATION 26
  • 27. A POSITIVE ASSOCIATION BETWEEN ADVERTISING AND QUALITY. ADVERTISING THUS MAY SIGNAL QUALITY, REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE AD SAYS. 28
  • 28. NOTHING KILLS A BAD PRODUCT FASTER THAN GOOD We see this in tech too ADVERTISING. find that quote – BILL BERNBACH 29
  • 30. Joan Edward Robinson Hastings Chamberlain 31
  • 31. THE MOTHER AND FATHER OF ADVERTISING ECONOMICS. 32
  • 32. IN 1933 CHAMBERLIN BROKE DOWN ADVERTISING’S ECONOMIC ROLE INTO TWO PARTS: THAT OF THE TRADEMARK, OR BRAND, AND THAT OF “SELLING COSTS,” OR THE SPREADING OF INFORMATION AND THE REPETITION OF THAT INFORMATION, AKA DIRECT. 33 Theory of Monopolistic Competition. A worthy read.
  • 33. David Bill Ogilvy Bernbach 34
  • 34. David Bill Ogilvy Bernbach 35
  • 35. “I DO NOT REGARD ADVERTISING AS “I WARN YOU ENTERTAINMENT OR AGAINST BELIEVING AN ART FORM, BUT THAT ADVERTISING AS A MEDIUM OF IS A SCIENCE.” quote from confessions about headline size INFORMATION.” — BILL BERNBACH —DAVID OGILVY 36
  • 36. David Bill Ogilvy Bernbach 37
  • 37. Howard Alex Draft Bogusky 38
  • 38. 39
  • 42. “THE QUASI-PEACEABLE GENTLEMAN OF LEISURE, THEN, NOT ONLY CONSUMES OF THE STAFF OF LIFE BEYOND THE MINIMUM REQUIRED FOR SUBSISTENCE AND PHYSICAL EFFICIENCY, BUT HIS CONSUMPTION ALSO UNDERGOES A SPECIALISATION AS REGARDS THE QUALITY OF THE GOODS CONSUMED. HE CONSUMES FREELY AND OF THE BEST, IN FOOD, DRINK, NARCOTICS, SHELTER, SERVICES, ORNAMENTS, APPAREL, Thorstein WEAPONS AND ACCOUTREMENTS, Veblen AMUSEMENTS, AMULETS, AND IDOLS OR DIVINITIES.” – THEORY OF THE LEISURE CLASS 43
  • 43. "THE MELANCHOLY DISCIPLES OF THORSTEIN VEBLEN WOULD HAVE DESPISED THIS SHIRT." 44
  • 44. “HARMONY THEREFORE, BETWEEN CONSUMER PREFERENCES AND THE PATTERN OF PRODUCTION MAY SIMPLY INDICATE THE ADAPTATION OF MAN'S TASTES TO THE RIGID REQUIREMENTS OF THE PRODUCTIVE SYSTEM, AND THAT WOULD HARDLY BE A CAUSE FOR SELF-CONGRATULATION.” Tibor – THE JOYLESS ECONOMY Scitovsky 45
  • 45. ADVERTISING HAS US CHASING CARS AND CHOTHES, WORKING JOBS WE HATE SO WE CAN BUY SHIT WE DON’T NEED.
  • 46. “WHEN ANY SPACE IS BOUGHT, EVEN IF ONLY TEMPORARILY, IT CHANGES TO FIT ITS SPONSORS. AND THE MORE PREVIOUSLY PUBLIC SPACES ARE SOLD TO CORPORATIONS OR BRANDED BY THEM, THE MORE WE AS CITIZENS ARE FORCED TO PLAY BY CORPORATE RULES TO ACCESS OUR OWN CULTURE.” Naomi – NO LOGO Klein 47
  • 47.
  • 48. “THE PROTECTION GIVEN BY CLOTHES IS EXCLUSIVE TO THOSE WHO USE THEM. BUT WHEN PEOPLE ARE NOT SATISFIED WITH A MERE COVERING AND PROVIDE THEMSELVES WITH FINE CLOTHING PLEASING TO THE EYE, THE ENJOYMENT IS SHARED BY ALL WHO MEET HIM.” – THE NEED FOR FAITH Sir Ralph Hawtrey 49
  • 49. “MARKETERS EXPLOIT THE FOCUSING ILLUSION. WHEN PEOPLE ARE INDUCED TO BELIEVE THAT THEY “MUST HAVE” A GOOD, THEY GREATLY EXAGGERATE THE DIFFERENCE THAT THE GOOD WILL MAKE TO THE QUALITY OF THEIR LIFE.” – THINKING FAST AND SLOW Daniel Kahneman 50
  • 50. WE ALL HAVE TO COME TO TERMS WITH THESE. 51
  • 52. “ADVERTISING, LIKE DEMOCRACY, IS TERRIBLE IN PRINCIPLE BUT BETTER THAN ANY KNOWN ALTERNATIVE IN PRACTICE.” Richard Schmalensee 53
  • 53. THE RETURN FROM ADVERTISING AND THEREBY ACHIEVING AN INITIAL SALE MAY BE GREATER FOR A HIGH- QUALITY PRODUCT, DUE TO THE GREATER REPEAT PURCHASES THAT COME FROM SATISFIED CUSTOMERS Phillip J. Nelson 54
  • 54. “EVEN THE CENTRAL PLANNERS IN THE OLD SOVIET UNION HAD TO ESTABLISH ‘PRODUCTION MARKS’ TO STOP MANUFACTURERS CUTTING CORNERS ON QUALITY.” 55 http://www.economist.com/node/770992?story_id=770992
  • 55. ACCORDINGLY, EVEN NON-PRICE ADVERTISING CAN LOWER PRICES, AND THIS ASSOCIATION APPEARS TO DERIVE IN PART FROM THE ENTRY OF LARGE-SCALE FIRMS INTO MARKETS THAT ALLOW NON-PRICE ADVERTISING Lee Benham 56
  • 56. “THE NEWSPAPER INDUSTRY PROVIDES ANOTHER EXAMPLE OF SUBSIDISED COMMODITIES, BELONGING TO THIS CLASS; HERE THE SERVICE PROVIDED TO THE PUBLIC IS SUBSIDISED (THE PAPERS ARE SOLD TO THE PUBLIC BELOW COST), IN ORDER TO ENHANCE THE DEMAND FOR ADVERTISING SPACE, BY THE ADVERTISERS.” Nicholas Kaldor 57 Kaldor, N. 1950. The economic aspects of advertising. Review of Economic Studies 18, 1–27.
  • 57. UH OH. 58
  • 58. BUT WHAT ABOUT THE INTERNET? 59
  • 59. 60
  • 60. IN 2011, WEB 2.0 VISIONARY TIM O'REILLY BLITHELY COMMENTED THAT GOOGLE "SOLVED THE PROBLEM POSED BY JOHN WANAMAKER A CENTURY AGO" 61 https://plus.google.com/107033731246200681024/posts/2NU9pZEZ5t1
  • 61. ADVERTISING IN THE US $114 Billion Total Ad Spend, web is 30% and growing 70 53 35 18 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 US Online Ad Spend, in Billions Projected 62 Source: Kantar Media, IAB, E-Marketer
  • 62. BUT THAT MONEY IS COMING FROM PRINT, NOT TV 40 30 20 10 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Online Ad Spend Percentage Print Ad Percentage 63 Source: Business Insider, via Company filings
  • 63. ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT IT IS TO SAY THAT ONLINE AD MONEY IS COMING FROM DIRECT AND NOT BRAND. 64
  • 65. TELEVISION ADVERTISING IS ACTUALLY GROWING (I MEAN, NOT A LOT, BUT EVERYONE THINKS IT’S SHRINKING. BUT IT ISN’T.) 42 41 40 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 US Television Ad Spend as a percentage of total 66 Source: Business Insider, via Company filings
  • 66. AND THIS, EVEN THOUGH THEIR AUDIENCE IS SHRINKING. 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 May ‘11 June ‘11 July ‘11 Sep ‘11 Oct ‘11 Nov ‘11 Dec ‘11 Jan ‘12 Feb ‘12 March ‘12 Change in Live + Same Day Ratings; Persons 2+; Total Day (percent) 67 Source: Business Insider, via Company filings
  • 67. SO $48 BILLION IS STILL BEING SPENT ON TV EVEN THOUGH THE AUDIENCE IS SHRINKING. 68
  • 68. WTF? 69
  • 69. THE INTERNET HAS CAPTURED DIRECT AD MONEY FROM PRINT, BUT IT IS STILL REALLY BAD AT BRAND MARKETING 70
  • 70. “THE WEB HAS MEGA- OPTIMIZED THE SMALLEST CHUNK OF ADVERTISING, WHICH IS DIRECT RESPONSE... IT’S NOT INTENDED TO MAKE YOU FEEL SOMETHING FOR THE BRAND.” DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO, JULY 2012 71
  • 71. 81% OF ALL ONLINE AD DOLLARS ARE SPENT ON SEARCH OR BANNERS. http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_archive/press_release/pr-101112 72
  • 72. THIS IS EVEN MORE DEPRESSING - THE CONCEPT OF BRAND LIFT AS A PRICING MODEL IS NON-EXISTENT. http://www.iab.net/about_the_iab/recent_press_releases/press_release_archive/press_release/pr-101112 73
  • 73. 74
  • 74. WEB ADS ARE NO LONGER ALIGNED WITH OUR MEDIA 75
  • 75. SOCIAL IS ERODING THE ABILITY FOR A BRAND TO CONTROL THE NARRATIVE. 76
  • 76. SOME BRANDS DO IT WELL, BUT THEY ARE THE EXCEPTION, NOT THE RULE. 77
  • 77. ? AdWords 78
  • 78. AdWords The First Banner 79
  • 79. THIS HAS BEEN MY JAM SINCE I GOT STARTED IN ADVERTISING. 80
  • 80. AdWords Viral Marketing 81
  • 81. AdWords YouTube 82
  • 82. AdWords Buzzfeed 83
  • 83. Brand Timeline Pages 84
  • 84. Old Twitter New Profile Pages Pages 85
  • 85. 86
  • 87. “STUDIES... INDICATE THAT COMPANIES WITH STRONG BRANDS OUTPERFORM THE MARKET IN RESPECT OF SEVERAL INDICES. IT HAS ALSO BEEN SHOWN THAT A PORTFOLIO WEIGHTED BY THE BRAND VALUES OF THE BEST GLOBAL BRANDS PERFORMS SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER THAN MORGAN STANLEY’S GLOBAL MSCI INDEX AND THE AMERICAN-FOCUSED S&P 500 INDEX.” 88 BrandChannel
  • 88. “ADVERTISING REALLY TURNS OUR STOMACHS.” DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO, JUNE 2010 89
  • 89. “CAN YOU REMEMBER THE LAST TWITTER AD YOU’VE SEEN, THE LAST FACEBOOK AD?” DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO 90
  • 90. YOU’VE ALREADY SEEN OUR AD UNIT. IT’S THE TUMBLR POST. DAVID KARP, TUMBLR CEO 91
  • 91. Google Tumblr Search Search 92
  • 92. 93
  • 93. 94
  • 94. 95
  • 98.
  • 99. Hipster Runoff SOUP 100
  • 100. “ADVERTISING SHOULD NOT BE ABOLISHED, BUT IT MUST BE REFORMED.” 101
  • 101. ADVERTISING IS THE EDGE OF WHAT PEOPLE KNOW HOW TO DO AND OF HUMAN EXPERIENCE AND IT EXPLAINS THE LATEST WAYS PROGRESS HAS CHANGED US TO OURSELVES. FOR ME, THAT DEFINITION OF ADVERTISING IS REALLY INTERESTING AND IS PROFOUNDLY DIFFERENT FROM THE LATEST SILICON VALLEY DEFINITION OF ADVERTISING – WHERE YOU HAVE PEOPLE PAY FOR WHO THEY CAN BE Jaron Lanier CONNECTED TO.... 102
  • 102. Apologies and thanks to the source: Luma Partners. Hate the game, not the player.
  • 103. SERIOUSLY. SCREW THIS. Apologies and thanks to the source: Luma Partners. Hate the game, not the player.
  • 104. THE DEFINING ADVERTISING ISSUES OF OUR TIME: 105
  • 106. 107
  • 109. 110