LKCE18 Andreas Bartel - What does it take to grab a cupcake?

flow.hamburg
PLAN SYSTEMS. MANAGE WORK. LEAD PEOPLE.
Andreas Bartel
andreas@flow.hamburg
@trichromacy
What Does It Take to
Grab a Cupcake
How Systems of Feedback Loops Regulate
Motion – A Neuroscience Perspective
Copyright © flow.hamburg GbRLKCE18 06.11.18

flow.hamburg GbR– From Hamburg with Love
The Geeky Kanban Couple
Kanban Coaching
Certified Kanban Training

Line of Thought
• Organizational survival is determined by its capability to move in a
dynamic and complex environment
• Organizations must have developed “brains” and feedback loops to
coordinate their movement
• Dysfunctions of movement = dysfunctions of feedback
• Studying dysfunctions will help understand and improve feedback
loops
• Improved feedback loops = Improved Business Agility

Feedback Loops
The Basic Principles

Coupling – Relation of Two Parts
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" dominates ℙ#
linear relation
ℙ" ⟶ ℙ#

Coupling – Relation Properties I
Rectified Impact (positive) Opposing Impact (negative)
LKCE18 06.11.18 Copyright © flow.hamburg GbR
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" dominates ℙ#
ℙ" ⟶ ℙ#
The more … The more …
The less … The less …
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" dominates ℙ#
ℙ" ⟶ ℙ#
The more … The less …
The less … The more …

Coupling – Relation Properties II
Effect Progression Temporal Constraints
ℙ" dominates ℙ#
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" ⟶ ℙ#
+/-
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" dominates ℙ#
ℙ" ⟶ ℙ#
+/-
linear
progressive
degressive
oscillating
decelerating accelerating
slow fast

!"#$%&' ('%)
ℙ+ dominates ℙ,
linear relation
ℙ+ ⟶ ℙ,
https://tinyurl.com/y9w8vm9c

Let’s spice it up a bit – Discourse
https://tinyurl.com/y8ypektq
What is different here?
Could you predict the outcome?

Coupling – Relation of Two Parts
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" affects ℙ#
dynamic relation
https://tinyurl.com/y8ypektq
ℙ" ⇄ ℙ#

Coupling – Feedback Properties
Reinforcing Relation (positive) Stabilizing Relation (negative)
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" ⇆ ℙ#
ℙ" increases ℙ# increases ℙ"
ℙ" decreases ℙ# decreases ℙ"
ℙ" ℙ#
ℙ" ⇆ ℙ#
%&'()*(+, -./0(12(,3 %&'()*(+, 4+5,*&6)7*(,3
ℙ" increases ℙ# decreases ℙ"
ℙ" decreases ℙ# increases ℙ"

Feedback Loops – Examples

Positive Feedback Loops – Example
Reinforcing Loop – Virtuous Cycle
“The more money you have in the bank,
the more interest you earn, which is added to the money
already in the bank, where it earns even more interest.”
Meadows (2008)!"#$% &#
'((")#*
+#*$,$-* ./*$
The more …

Positive Feedback Loops – Example
Reinforcing Loop – Vicious Cycle
“Boards that overemphasize collaboration fuel
groupthink, as threat rigidity and escalating commitment
foster even greater collaboration in a vicious spiral.”
Sundaramurthy and Lewis (2003)!"#$#%&ℎ()*+#,
-.//(0.$(1*.2
3$.4&1ℎ*25
The more …
Pressure for uniformity

Negative Feedback Loops – Example
Stabilizing Loop – Virtuous Cycle
“Increased prey leads to increased predators and this
reduces the prey back to its original value.”
Lewontin and Levins (2007)
!"#$ !"#%&'("
The less …

Negative Feedback Loops – Example
Stabilizing Loop – Vicious Cycle
“Success Trap – organizations come to over-rely on their
own past experience and do not adjust to new demands
and challenges.”
Levinthal and March (1993)!"#$%&'" (&
)%*+ ,-."/$"&'"
01%.+%2$#$+3
+( 4ℎ%&6"
The more …
The more … The less …

Types of Feedback Loops – Summary
Feedback Loop
Positive
Reinforcing
Negative
Stabilizing
Virtuous Cycle
Vicious Cycle
Virtuous Stabilizing Loop
Vicious Stabilizing Loop
Hari Tsoukas and Miguel Pina e Cunha, 2017
Make a good situation better
Make a bad situation worse
Create stability
Resist change

A Good Modell of Organizational Feedback
Loops?
The Watt‘s Governot – The Principle of Regulation
Ulrich and Probst (1988)

„
Homo Sapiens – Ocean and Museum of Feedback
Loops
The brainstem regulates our body functions through
feedback loops, the limbic system our behavior and
emotions, the neocortex our reasoning and judgement.
All three influence each other, again through feedback
loops.
Jürgen Beetz, Feedback, 2016

What Does It Take To
Grab a Cupcake?
A Brain and Feedback Loops!
Copyright © flow.hamburg GbR
https://tinyurl.com/y7oaafzj
LKCE18 06.11.18

The See Squirt
https://tinyurl.com/y88w9l9c
Starts off as an egg
Develops into tadpole like creature
Spinal cord, simple eye, tail
Simple brain for control
LKCE18 06.11.18

https://tinyurl.com/y88w9l9c
Starts off as an egg
Develops into tadpole like creature
Spinal cord, simple eye, tail
Simple brain for control
LKCE18 06.11.18
Looses brain when stops moving

300.000.000 years of evolution
made for
Feed
Mate
Fight or Flight
LKCE18 06.11.18

Requirements for Motion
• A movement apparatus
• Supporting systems
• Processing of external signals
• Processing of internal signals
• Coordination

Some Facts About The Human Brain
• About three pounds
• A trillion of neurons – 1012
• Up to a 10.000 synaptic connections with other neurons
• A quintillion number of synapses – 1015
• Potential number of all connection higher than the number of all
atoms in the universe
More than a universe in three pounds

„
Systems Thinking
More is different!
Jürgen Beetz, Feedback, 2016
LKCE18 06.11.18

From Parts To Systems – From Simple To Complex
Copyright flow.hamburgLKNA18 10.04.18

Copyright flow.hamburgLKNA18 10.04.18

From Parts To Systems – From Simple To Complex
Structure
Interaction
Interdependence
Feedback Loops
Emergent Properties
Reshaping &
Rewiring
(Plasticity)

„
What does it take to grab a cupcake?
A brain and feedback
loops!
LKCE18 06.11.18

Humans Move With a
Purpose1
Voluntary Motor Control – Achieving Balance Through
Excitation and Inhibition
1. The Cognitive Neuroscience. Gazzaniga, 2009

The Challenge
• Degrees of freedom in limb movement
• Almost infinite number of possible muscle activation patterns that
could lead to similar movements
• Massive redundancy
• Naturally occurring errors

Basics of Motor Control
Cortex
(drafts of motor programs)
Basal Ganglia
(coarse plans for fast movements)
Thalamus
(interface)
Cerebellum
(fine plans for slow movements)
Spine &
Muscles
(execution)

Cortico-Basal Ganglia Loop (Simplified)
Cortex
Basal Ganglia Thalamus

Cortex
Striatum
External
Pallidum
inhibitory
excitatory
Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
STN
BG Motor
Loop
tonic inhibition directindirect
BGInBGOut

Cortex
Striatum
BGInBGOut
inhibitory
excitatory
Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
External
Pallidum
STN
BG Direct
Pathway
tonic inhibition
Disinhibition
Increasedactivity
Striatum
Thalamus

Cortex
Striatum
External
Pallidum
BGInBGOut
inhibitory
excitatory
Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
STN
BG Indirect
Pathway
tonic inhibition
Disinhibition
Decreasedactivity
Striatum
STN

Two Pathways Model – Opposite Effects
Direct Pathway Indirect Pathway
Inhibition of the thalamus
Excitatory input from thalamus to
cortex
Overall motor activity
EffectGo! No-Go!

The Basal Ganglia modulate the flow of actions
https://tinyurl.com/y7rfocao
Selective Initiation or
Suppression of
Movement

„
But wait …
How is it determined which pathway to
take?

Enter Dopamine – The Goal Setter
https://tinyurl.com/y9ar3jzy
HO
HO
NH2

Cortex
Striatum
External
PallidumBGInBGOut
inhibitory
excitatory Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
STN
BG Motor
Loop
tonic inhibition
Substantia
Nigra
SNc
Dopamine D1 receptor
Facilitate transmission
Dopamine D2 receptor
Inhibit transmission
directindirect
modulatory
tonic firing, 3 – 6 Hz
dopamine
LKCE18 06.11.18
Disinhibition

Gating-Like Modulation Through Dopamine
• Strong signals take the Go pathway and are expedited
• Weak signals take the No-Go pathway and are delayed or discarded
• Dopamine bursts reinforce cortically initiated activation
• Support activation of intended motor programs
• Minimize interference of conflicting motor programs

Dopamine – It’s About Reward!
https://tinyurl.com/ybcv3hqj

Reward & Punishment
• Compare signal to expected value
• Learning loop through expectation and experience
• Double loop learning
• The Policy
• Select most rewarding motor programs à Dopamine burst à Go pathway
• Avoid punishing ones à Dopamine dips à No-Go pathway
• Filter out the noise
• Caution
• Tonic dopamine levels influence the relative balance
• The more dopamine the more risky the choices
• Insensitivity to negative outcome
Normal condition = incredibly
high discard rate of cortical
activity

What Does It Take to
Grab a Cupcake?
An End-to-End System View

You can’t focus! I’ll select
& sequence most
rewarding plans!
(Basal Ganglia)
I’ll inform those in the
ivory tower! If you let me.
(Thalamus)
Execute!
(Spinal cord)
Alright! I have a direct line to the muscles! And I have many
possible activation patterns.
(Motor Cortex)
Want cupcake!
(Limbic System)
End-to-End System View
Here’s how I’d do it.
Report any errors! I’ll
forecast and correct.
(Cerebellum)

End-to-End System View
You can’t focus! I’ll select
& sequence most
rewarding plans!
(Basal Ganglia)
I’ll inform those in the
ivory tower! If you let me.
(Thalamus)
Execute!
(Spinal cord)
Alright! I have a direct line to the muscles! And I have many
possible activation patterns.
(Motor Cortex)
Want cupcake!
(Limbic System)
Here’s how I’d do it.
Report any errors! I’ll
forecast and correct.
(Cerebellum)
Doing The Right Things!
(What)
Getting Things Done Right!
(How)
Doing Things Better!
(Learning & Improving)

Grabbing a Cupcake Requires …
• Motivation or purpose
• Huge number of activation plans (variety)
• Selection and sequencing
• Reward and punishment
• Excitation & Inhibition
• Detailing out the plans
• Execution and regulation
• Continuous monitoring
• Continuous adaptation

Motor Control Summary
• Movement is a complex product of multiple areas
• Involved areas are organized in a hierarchy
• These areas are connected through specific pathways
• Feedback loops enable coordination
• Suppress unintended movements (inhibition)
• Let through intended movements (excitation)
• Balance is achieved through using both loops types
• Positive loops for reinforcement
• Negative loops for stabilization
• Dopamine modulates on the fly

Dysfunctional
Feedback Loops
Every disturbance of a function in the brain reveals how it
operates under normal, healthy condition

Dysfunctions of Motor Control
Too little (hypokinesia)
• Morbus Parkinson
• Death of cells in SNc
• Loss of dopamine
• Disability to modulate
• Problems initiating movements
• Problems terminating running
movements
Too much (hyperkinesia)
• Chorea Huntington
• Death of cells in striatum
• Loss of GABA
• Disability to suppress
• Problems suppressing unintended
movements
• Reduced muscle tone

Parkinson

Cortex
Striatum
External
Pallidum
Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
STN
SNc
directindirect
Cortex
Striatum
External
Pallidum
Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
STN
SNc
directindirect
Parkinson DiseaseNormal Condition
dopamine dopamine
LKCE18 06.11.18

„
Cupcake?
You will have a hard time initiating your
movement in order to grab your cupcake!
LKCE18 06.11.18

Huntington

Cortex
Striatum
External
Pallidum
Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
STN
SNc
directindirect
Cortex
Striatum
(Lack of GABA)
External
Pallidum
Internal
Pallidum
Thalamus
STN
SNc
directindirect
HuntingtonNormal Condition
dopamine dopamine
LKCE18 06.11.18

„
Cupcake?
You will have a hard time grabbing your
cupcake because other undesired
movements will interfere with your
intention!
LKCE18 06.11.18

Dysfunctional Feedback Loops – Recap
• Two categories of movement disorders
• Difficulties to initiate intended movement
• Difficulties to suppress unintended movements
• Both result from damages of the same loop (Cortex-BG)
• Imbalance of excitation and inhibition
• Significant impact on overall motor control

Organizational
Dysfunctions

Organizational Dysfunctions
Too little (hypokinesia)
• Difficulties to initiate what is
desired
• Difficulties to discard what is
already running
Too much (hyperkinesia)
• Difficulties to avoid what is not
intended
• Constant interference

Organizational Hypokinesia – Difficulties to
initiate
• Cumbersome upstream process
• Analysis paralysis
• Starvation of downstream
• Hand off processes
• Sign off processes
• Large lead times for acquiring options
• Information hiding or information radiators
• Lack of agreement about intent (Einheit)

Organizational Hyperkinesia – Difficulties to avoid
the unintended
• Irrefutable demand
• No demand shaping
• Premature commitment
• Push behavior
• No sense of capability or capacity
• No sense of risk management
• No sense of optionality
• Rewarding starting work instead of finishing

„
Organizational Circularity
Circles explain organizational destruction better
than any other process. ... if we want to know
more about the dynamics of self-destruction we
can start by looking at vicious cycles.
Hari Tsoukas and Miguel Pina e Cunha (2017)

Organizational Dysfunctions - Example
A Vicious Cycle of Threat Rigidity
• The inability to alter responses in the face of
environmental change.
A Vicious Cycle of Escalating
Commitment
• Maintaining or increasing commitment to a goal,
despite considerable uncertainty about whether
this will result in success.
!ℎ#$%&
'()*+%+&
,$-.(+-$
The stronger …
The stronger … The stronger …
/())*&)$+&
'$01*+*+2
3$#4(#)%+0$
The more …

„
So what?
Organizational dysfunctions are observable
effects of dysfunctional feedback loops.
You need to look behind.
LKCE18 06.11.18

The Feedback Lens beta

„
The Feedback Lens
Learn to view organizational behavior or
“movement” as a result of a system of
feedback loops (that can be improved).
LKCE18 06.11.18

The Feedback Lens
What to look for
• What feedback loops are already
there? How are they used?
• What are no loops at all?
• Feedback loops dementia?
• What changes occur through active
feedback loops?
• Signs of escalating commitment or
rigidity?
What to do
• Map how information and decisions
flow through the system
• Pay attention to what information or
decisions go through and what don’t
• Insert a “virus” or a trace element and
watch it propagate
• Identify the “reward” systems!

Discover, Map and Classify Loops
Feedback Loop
Positive
Reinforcing
Negative
Stabilizing
Virtuous Cycle
Vicious Cycle
Virtuous Stabilizing Loop
Vicious Stabilizing Loop
Hari Tsoukas and Miguel Pina e Cunha, 2017
Make a good situation better
Make a bad situation worse
Create stability
Resist change

Take – Aways
LKCE18 06.11.18

Message #1 – Organizational Movement
• Living beings developed brains in order to move
• Movement requires external and internal coordination
• Organizations compete in a environment that favors those who can
move swiftly – Business Agility
• Organizational movement requires a management system (brains)
and feedback loops for coordination of external and internal
interactions

Message #2 – Dynamic Loop Types
• In technical systems, engineered by humans, feedback loop types are
usually hard-wired
• In naturally occurring systems they are not
• These systems can switch from escalation to de-escalation, from
excitation to inhibition
• Novelty can emerge, grow and stabilize
• Organizations should develop their management capability to adjust
& switch feedback loop types dynamically

„
Message #3 – Org. & Loop Maturity
Organizational maturity is your feedback
maturity is your organizational maturity!

Maturity Interdependency
Organizational Maturity Feedback Loops Maturity

Maturity Interdependency
Organizational Maturity Feedback Loops Maturity
Leadership
Maturity

Maturity and Cadences Effectiveness

„
Mature Kanban Cadences – As I see it
A system of distributed (interdependent) feedback
loops for deliberate control and regulation of
complex organizational behavior with the
intention to achieve continuous fitness for
purpose.

„
More on Feedback Loops
Feedback and Cadence: essentials of agile
control and evolution.
Andy Carmichael, 14:40 – 15:10, Downstream

https://flic.kr/p/6K41qv
@trichromacy
https://manage-with-kanban-fra.eventbrite.de
LKCE18 06.11.18

LKCE18 Andreas Bartel - What does it take to grab a cupcake?

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LKCE18 Andreas Bartel - What does it take to grab a cupcake?