![Critical Thinking: Thinking reflexively about a ‘Problem Situation’ Lorraine Dodd [email_address] Ext.5274 © Cranfield University 2011](https://image.slidesharecdn.com/criticalthinking2011-12961660808782-phpapp01/85/Critical-Thinking-2011-1-320.jpg)
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Critical Thinking 2011
- 1. Critical Thinking: Thinking reflexively about a ‘Problem Situation’ Lorraine Dodd [email_address] Ext.5274 © Cranfield University 2011
- 2. Critical Thinking: what is it and are we doing it? John Chaffee (2004) Thinking Critically , Wadsworth Press Thinking critically involves thinking for ourselves and carefully examining the way that we make sense of the world. Creative Thinking involves developing ideas that are unique useful and worthy of further elaboration. Systems Thinking is about seeing things from different viewpoints with multiple perspective lenses.
- 8. foreseen unforeseen non- creative creative small world big world transitional through education If in doubt go back to using SOPs Critical quality self-reflective vantage point ?
- 9. Recent work on “Cognitive Fitness”: thinking skills
- 10. What are your thoughts so far….? If everybody is thinking alike, then somebody isn't thinking. General Jan Smuts one-time terrorist
- 11. Open-eyes / open-mind matrix closed eyes open eyes closed mind open mind
- 12. Closed-to-open sensing and sense-making
- 13. zero surprise Surprise Belief and Surprise (cf GLS Shackle) maximum surprise maximum surprise Belief Function Future outcome Belief Region of Possibility Imaginable futures Open mind
- 16. Options funnel: imagined deemed possible potential imaginable options without prejudice desirable options possible options available options performable options required options obligated options permitted options achievable options do-able options
- 20. What do you think
Editor's Notes
- The figure shows the relationship between belief and surprise according to GLS Shackle's work in economic expectation and "un-knowledge". If we take any one of the attributes being used to appraise situational events then there is usually a subjective belief about the likelihood of the attribute assuming a particular value (see belief function in light-blue). Such belief-related likelihoods are called clamped likelihoods and are generally representative of a closed-mind approach. Inversely-related to the belief function then is a function of surprise (see dotted orange U-shaped function) such that the value of the attribute that has zero surprise corresponds to the value of maximum clamped likelihood and maximum surprise occurs where there is a belief that such extreme values of the attribute will not be seen at all. It may be objectively feasible, however, for the attribute to adopt such extreme values and so we introduce the notion of free likelihood that represents the range of potentially-feasible attribute values and (as depicted by the blue line-graph) usually assumes equal likelihood across the range of possible values. (This need not always be a uniform distribution as shown but could be any distribution that represents the degrees of possibility.) Clamped likelihoods are used formally to represent closed-minds in the sense that likelihood estimates for the attribute values will be calculated according to a known probability distribution (or model) that has an expected value (i.e. mean ) and a (stable) variance. Free likelihood is used formally to represent an open-mind that is willing to consider possibility as well as probability. Closed-eyes and open-eyes is a simple registration of the ranges of attribute vales that are scan-able due to either physical/technical sensing limitations or due to psychological blinds that may be raised to conform with the state of mind.