Making sense of your data doesn't require mountains of data; it requires a systematic approach that leads to actionable insights. But how to get there? This keynote (given at "Predictive Analytics and Business Insights") shows how to extract significant business value from big data with Ask-Measure-Learn, a system that helps you ask the right questions, measure the right data, and then learn from the results. Using this system can help you learn to: * Focus on business-related questions * Find measures that have high causation, a low error rate and a low cost * Create actionable insights by starting with predictions, benchmarks or recommendations

1. Lutz Finger
Ask Measure Learn
Last update: March 3, 2014

2. The philosophy of the day is
data-ism.
—DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)

3. Who
•
•
•
•
am I
Lutz Finger
Director Data Analytics at LinkedIn
Author of Ask Measure Learn
Co-Founder Fisheye Analytics
(sold to WPP)
@LutzFinger
LutzFinger.com
linkedin.com/in/lutzfinger
?

6. Who are
you?

7. Mario Vinasco
Earliest Adopter
Rahul Todkar
Most Popular
Bruno Aziza
Most Connected
Ron Goncalves,
MBA, PMP,
Most Endorsed

12. Actionable Insights?

13. Intellectually enriching – at most

14. We focus too much on technology
Google Search on the term “Big Data”
ENGINEERS
DATA SCIENTISTS

15. ASK the right Questions.
MEASURE the right data –
even if it is not Big data.
Take Actions and
from them.
LEARN
?

16. ASK
Ask the right
Question

17. ASK
THE HARDEST PART

18. ASK
Let’s do “Social Media”

19. ASK
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.

20. • Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)
• Influentials (Merton 1968)
• Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000)
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASK
Please find an “INFLUENCER”

21. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASK
A few person decide what we do…

22. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
ASK
REALLY?

23. ASK
Dear Marketers,
There is
no influencer. It’s a myth.

24. ASK
Reality 50% is Homophily
•
•
•
•
4 years
1001 Students on Facebook
traditional Self-reported Data
How did taste Spread
Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1
Influence is often overestimated. It needs:
§ Reach
§ Readiness
§ Topic Dependence

25. ASK
Aja Dior M.?
AP News?

26. ASK
Aja Dior M.?
AP News?
Aja Dior M.
omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for
whitney houston just found whitney
houston dead in the tub. such ashamed
& sad :(
45 min

27. ASK
I want to create “REACH”
… in order to “SELL”

28. MEASURE
Measure the
right Data

29. • Click Rates – Media
• Low CPO advertisers
• Etc..
MEASURE
The world is full of WRONG metrics

30. Measure
MEASURE
What is RIGHT?
Source: WIkipedia
30

31. Big Data
MEASURE
even if it is not

32. Social
Data
Behavioral
Data
Identity
Data
Data Volume
MEASURE
Analytical Challenge &
Complexity
277+ Million Members = a lot of Data

33. MEASURE
More Data
does not equal
More Insights

34. MEASURE
We want small data….
Data ELT and
Aggregation
Web API
Reach
Analytics
Portal
or
No Reach
1
Petabyte
2
Terabyte
3
Gigabyte
4
Bit

35. MEASURE
Calculating Reach via Network Data
1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based
on Betweenness .”

36. “SELL”
needs purchase intend
MEASURE
“REACH”
creates awareness

37. MEASURE
Correlations are
important

38. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEASURE
What is your behavior?

39. MEASURE
The issue with the Correlation / Causation

40. MEASURE
Sometimes data is
not easy
to get.

41. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEASURE
Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’

42. New York Weather in April 2013
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
MEASURE
It is way easier to work with ‘structured data’

43. MEASURE
MEASURE
Source: Jeffrey Breen
43

44. MEASURE
What is RIGHT?
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
44

45. LEARN
Right Actions
and learn from
them.

46. 2
Connections
4%
4
Connections
3%
1
Connection
28%
0
Connections
59%
LEARN
Information vs. Action…

47. LEARN
Information vs. Action…
4
Connections
2
3%
Connections
4%
1
Connection
28%
0
Connections
59%
47

48. LEARN
Three Types of actionable Insights
Benchmark
Predictions
Recommendations &
Filter

49. LEARN
BENCHMARK

50. LEARN
Competitive Benchmark
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
50

51. LEARN
RECOMMEND & FILTER

52. People You May Know
Groups You May Like
Ads You Be Interested in
Companies you May Want to Follow
Similar Profiles
Puls
LEARN
LinkedIn Recommendation Products

53. More than
50% of
connections
LEARN
Recommendations Impact
More than
50% of
group joins
More than
50% job
applications

54. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEARN
Filter

55. LEARN
PREDICTIONS

56. LEARN
Predicting the OSCAR 2013

57. LEARN
Predicting the OSCAR

58. Possible other Features:
CROWDSOURCED:
• Box Office Results
• Movie Goer Reviews
• Critics
OTHER “Hard Facts”
• Genre
• Payment of Actors
• Etc.
Source: Farsite
LEARN
Predicting the OSCAR

59. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEARN
Predicting Box Office

60. LEARN
Predictions are not easy,
especially if they are about the Future

61. Behavioral Score = 0.5
Identity Score = 0.3
Emily
Score = 0.9
Social Score = 0.1
Behavioral Score = 0.2
Identity Score = 0.3
Steve
Score = 0.9
... With premium
account, you get
more search
results and access
to …
Social Score = 0.4
... Do you know 5
of you connections
have started to use
premium account
…
LEARN
Propensity to Email Marketing

62. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LEARN
Which Model to use

63. Google’s Prediction API
LEARN
Which Model to use

64. Benchmark
Recommendation & Filter
Predict
LEARN
Many more examples…

65. LEARN
Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier

66. LEARN
Training
Update

67. Summary

68. ASK the right Questions.
Forget Big Data but
MEASURE the right
data.
Take Actions and
from them.
LEARN
?

69. We are hiring!