Many experts believed driving was too complex to be automated, yet here we are with self driving taxis, cars, and trucks. The robots are coming for drivers - and they are coming for you too. No matter what your job, a robot WILL do it. They will be stronger, faster, and smarter than you. They will be better writers, better doctors, and run companies more effectively. We can delay the inevitable by shutting down borders and subsidizing losing industries, but we will not stop robots from replacing human labor (nor should we). The challenge is in the transition from a human labor to the robot run economy. Many people will struggle to find new places for their skills, and the result could be increased income inequality, increased violence, and an uprooted sense of self. In this talk, we’ll explore our responsibility as technologists to be aware of and address this inevitable transition to a robot labor force.

1. No jobs for humans
How to survive and thrive in the transition
to the all robot workforce

2. 72%… of Americans are very or somewhat worried about a
future where robots and computers are capable of
performing many human jobs

3. Technologists
See a Utopia

4. Most others
Imagine a
Dystopia

5. Hello!
I’m AJ Davis, and I sit at the
intersection of:
● Behavioral Economics
● Human computer interaction
● Building things
aj@metricrux.com | @AJDavis_ | AJ Davis on LinkedIn

6. PRESENT DAY

7. Technology changes
And our fears change too.

8. Technology changes
And our fears change too.

9. Human behavior.
Sunk cost fallacy.
“Everyone already knows how to drive,
why teach a machine to do it?”
Continuing a behavior or endeavor as a
result of previously invested resources (time,
money or effort)

10. Human behavior.
Endowment effect.
People will tend to pay more to retain
something they own than to obtain
something they do not own.
“I’d rather die by a human driver than a
machine (because I’m used to the risk)”

11. Change is hard.
Change is resisted.
Sunk Cost
Fallacy
Endowment
Effect
Resistance
to change
“Self-driving cars are inevitably more
dangerous than a human driving”

12. Automation is here.
Jobs are already gone.
Switchboard
operator
Lift operator
Toll operator
Cashiers
Factory workers
Surgeons
Pharmacists
Soldiers

13. FUTURE* STATE

14. “
Robots are expected to create 15
million new jobs in the U.S. over the
next 10 years, equivalent to 10% of
the workforce, but those gains,
however, will not come close to
offsetting the 25 million jobs that
technology will eliminate by 2027.
- Forrester Research

15. Future state
A hypothesis
I believe we will find ourselves in a future run
by non-humans (robots, AI, automation) that
will be far more productive than we can be.
Human labor will be a bad business investment,
and many (all) of us will be under- or
un-employed.

16. Future state
More hypotheses
“"It's probably hard to overstate how big of
an impact [automation] going to have on
society over the next twenty years,"”
- Jeff Bezos, Amazon
“The reality is that work has changed. Forty
percent of jobs are now contingent,
meaning they're part-time, independent
contractors, Uber drivers...”
- Chris Hughes, Facebook
“I’m fairly confident that at some point in the future, as
technology continues to eliminate traditional jobs and
massive new wealth gets created, we’re going to see some
version of [basic income] at a national scale.”
- Sam Altman, Y Combinator

17. 5.6 workersEach robot reduces employment by this many workers
3xPredicted growth in robots in next decade
0.25 - 0.5%Drop in wages for each robot added per 1000 workers

18. TRANSITION

19. Jobs at highest risk to be automated
in the next 1-2 decades fall
disproportionately on:
▪ lower wage workers (<$20)
▪ those with high school degrees
or less.
Transition will be
Unequally impactful

20. “
But many economists argue that
automation bears much more blame
than globalization for the decline of
jobs in the region’s manufacturing
sector and the gutting of its middle
class.
- Tech Review

21. We don’t support
Those most impacted
The US is terrible at supporting
those most impacted by automation.
▪ Lagging behind other
developed countries
▪ Decreasing share of GDP over
time

22. RESPONSIBILITY

23. Derive meaning
from new places
Explore the meaning of being
human.
Build products that will help
people find meaning in other
ways.

24. “
The harder challenge is how do people
then have meaning, because a lot of
people derive their meaning from their
employment… if you are not needed, if
there is not a need for your labor,
what’s the meaning?
- Elon Musk, World Government Summit

25. Help create
healthy distractions
The “useless” class will need things
to do.
Cultivate creativity.
Nurture passion, curiosity,
imagination, critical thinking,
persistence.

26. Advocate for education changes.
Help current politicians
understand current technology
and plan for the future.
Encourage conversations for
universal basic income or other
longer-term solutions.
Advocate for
preparedness

27. Listen to fears
persuade change
Help alleviate fears for the future
We experience more stress when
we don’t know if something bad is
about to happen than when we
know for sure it’s coming
Change the conversation from
fear mongering.

28. Vote for political
preparedness.
Real discussions are needed
about tech monopolies and
affording to live without a job.
Advocate for education.
For our citizens, our
politicians, everyone.
Knowledge reduced fear.
Show empathy.
People will be slow to change
and adapt.
Let’s review
What we need to do
Listen.
To concerns about the
changing we’re bringing to the
world.
Build with intent.
Encourage your team to think
about the bigger picture.
Know we may be the “bad guys”
Intentionally or not, we are building this
future and changing the way people
live.

29. Thank you!
aj@metricrux.com | @AJDavis_ | AJ Davis on LinkedIn