[Regional Scrum Gathering Tokyo 2021] Scrum with OODA loop

1. Scrum X Army Ⅱ
Enhance your Scrum with OODA
Jan 6th, 2021
@woosyume (Woohyeok Aaron Kim)
Senior Application Engineer
Rakuten, Inc.

2. 2
Woohyeok Kim
# Certified Scrum Master
# Speaker at RSGT2020 etc.
# Favorite Lang : Korean, Java
Engineer of Rakuten Ichiba
Selenium User Community Organizer(Kansai)
ウヒョク キム
Speaker
- Developers Summit Kansai 2020
- Scrum Fest Mikawa 2020
- Regional Scrum GatheringTokyo 2020
- SeleniumConf 2019
- AgileJapan 2019
- Etc.

3. 3
Ex-Captain
Commander
General Manager : Intelligence Dept.
• Leader of 1 company,Artillery
• Analyzing intelligence related with North Korea
• Predict posture / tactics of North Korea
• Security

4. 4
政治や軍事的などの敏感なテーマは扱っておりませんので、
ご安心ください

5. 5
Index
2020 Highlight
What is OODA
OODA X Scrum
OODA X Scrum Master

6. 6
Target & Goal
Change the ideas
(常識をひっくり返す)
To Scrum Team often meeting at FAILURE (何かうまくいかないスクラムチーム)

7. 7
Intro

8. 8
“Our Scrum is NOT going well”
Plan is changed while driving sprint
Not enough members
Velocity is going down
Commit Rate is still lower
Sprint is broken
due to unexpected trouble

9. 9
Failure is the mother of success but,
Too much failure frustrates us
あまりにも失敗すると、落ち込んでしまい
前向きになれなくなる
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

10. 10
PDCA : The Business cycle of Jesus
Improve business product keep checking and reacting
Plan Do
CheckAct
【Google news, https://google.co.jp/, 2020/12/28 】

11. 11
Almost people believe PDCA will give us success
Seeing tons of success practices with PDCA
We try to adopt the practices to our process making own planning
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

12. 12
Almost people believe PDCA will give us success
With perfect plan, we feel satisfied and look forward to doing it
“Well begun is half done.”
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

13. 13
We also drive Scrum as PDCA (スプリントをPDCAとして理解した上で実施)
Product Backlog WORK IN PROGRESS
IN PROGRESS INTEST Pending
Sprint Backlog
“Planning
should be
perfect
as possible…!!”
スプリントを成功に導くため、
可能な限りきちんと計画を立てないと。。

14. 14
Weakness PDCA has
• Some variables can break planning
(変数により、せっかくのプランが崩壊することがある)
• Broken planning is difficult to be modified until the the cycle finished
（一度決めたプランは、最終的に成果を確認する前変更することが難しい）
Plan Do
CheckAct
Wrong plan affects to the final step

15. 15
Of course, the weakness is annoying us breaking our plan
“Oh, our Scrum is not going well…”
“How can we treat additional tasks?”
“How to treat trouble shooting in sprint perspective?”
「スプリントがなかなかうまく行きません」
「スプリント中に発生する他のタスクはどう扱いますか」
「トラブルがあったら、そのスプリントはどうなりますか」

16. 16
Is it alright?
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

17. 17
Season1
Highlight

18. 18
Scrum’s background based on Army’s theory
Sprint Planning Daily Scrum Sprint Review Sprint Retrospective … … …
Army’s organization theory

19. 19
Army can be defined as ‘Scrummed’ Society (軍隊はスクラム化した社会)
Fighting
Capability
Victory
Drill
Team
Velocity
Success
Study
Team

20. 20
Goal (1) : Maximize fighting capability(戦闘力を最大化する)
VS

21. 21
Goal (2) : Maintain the maximized capability (最大化した能力を保つ)

22. 22
Organization (組織)

23. 23
Product Backlog
Usual operation
Business request
...
…
…
UsualTraining
Senior Force Instruction
Trench Construction
Security Audit
…

24. 24
Sprint Backlog
UI Kaizen Physical Strength Kaizen
Ability
Team Dev
Success
Fighting
Capability
Team Drill
Victory

25. 25
Shippable Product

26. 26
Sprint
Product Backlog
…
WORK IN PROGRESS
IN PROGRESS INTEST Pending
Sprint Backlog
…

27. 27
Sprint
DONEOGRESS
Pending
…
Parallel
Sprint
IN REVIEW
24 HOURS
7DAYS

28. 28
Jeff Sutherland : Co-creator of Scrum
Co-creator of Scrum
He says that Scrum is Art
【Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeff_Sutherland, 2020/12/24 】
【 LinkedIn, https://www.linkedin.com/in/jeffsutherland, 2020/12/24 】

29. 29
What is ‘West Point’
Duty
Honor
Country
United States Military Academy
It’s similar with National DefenseAcademy of Japan
【Wikipedia, https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/陸軍士官学校_(アメリカ合衆国), 2019/12/24 】
America’s Best colleges 2009, Forbes
America’s history itself
Celebrities such as Eisenhower, MacArthur
graduated fromWest Point

30. 30
Scrum is Art of Doing Twice the Work in Half the Time
SCRUM :
The Art of
Doing
Twice
the Work
in Half
theTime
“Why don’t you often diagnose your process?”
“Improvement doesn’t add something new
, but exclude unnecessary things.”
“Figure out counterpart’s mind via OODA loop”

31. 31
Scrum’s background based on Army’s theory
Sprint Planning Daily Scrum Sprint Review Sprint Retrospective … … …
Army’s organization theory

32. 32
Scrum’s background based on Army’s theory
OODA
Sprint Planning Daily Scrum Sprint Review Sprint Retrospective … … …
Orient
DecideAct
Observe
Army’s organization theory

33. 33
OODA

34. 34
Background : Dogfight at Korean War (1950~1953)
F-86 (USA) vs MIG-15 (Soviet) for 3 years
Spec F-86 MIG-15
Max speed
(最大速度)
1,046km / h 1,075km / h
Rate of climb
(上昇率)
45m / s 50m / s
… … …
Shot down
（撃墜された数） 78
800
【Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogfight , 2020/12/28 】

35. 35
Background : Dogfight at Korean War (1950~1953)
Please insert your text here.
Emphasize text by making it crimson red and bold.
Example text
Lorem ipsum dolor sit amet, consectetuer adipiscing elit, sed diam nonummy nibh euismod tincidunt ut laoreet dolore
magna aliquam erat volutpat. Ut wisi enim ad minim veniam, quis nostrud exerci tation ullamcorper suscipit lobortis nisl
ut aliquip ex ea commodo consequat.
Duis autem vel eum iriure dolor in hendrerit in vulputate velit esse molestie consequat, vel illum dolore eu feugiat nulla
facilisis at vero eros et accumsan et iusto odio dignissim qui blandit praesent luptatum zzril delenit augue duis dolore te
feugait nulla facilisi.
More visible
【Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogfight , 2020/12/28 】
【Yahoo news, https://news.yahoo.co.jp, 2020/12/28 】
F-86MIG-15

36. 36
John Boyd : The creator of OODA loop
“How did we win on tons of dogfights?”
Understanding situation
Extracting meaning of current situation
Deciding the next direction
Acting the decision
“Factors gave us victory is
NOT performance of aircraft,
BUT proper actions we took”
【Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/johnboyd , 2020/12/28 】

37. 37
Scrum’s background based on Army’s theory
OODA
Sprint Planning Daily Scrum Sprint Review Sprint Retrospective … … …
Orient
DecideAct
Observe
Army’s organization theory

38. 38
Orient
DecideAct
Observe
OODA

39. 39
Fundamental(基本概念)
Basically, OODA is for risk management and NOT cycle but loop
「錯誤は当たり前なこと。」
「錯誤の繰り返しからより正確な判断力がつく」
Error and Exception, they’re NATURAL thing.
We can just set the direction again
【Pngtree, https://pngtree.com/, 2020/12/28 】

40. 40
Observe(観察): Understanding situation
Stories around us are too many to understand all well
Stories（物事・出来事）

41. 41
Observe(観察): Understanding situation
Stories around us are too many to understand all well
Stories（物事・出来事）

42. 42
Observe(観察): Understanding situation
To observe it well,
We should SIMPLIFY and see it from variety of perspectives
単純化した上、様々な角度から物事を把握する
Stories（物事・出来事）
あまりにも集中しないようにしよう。。

43. 43
Orient(抽出・加工) : Extracting meaning of current situation
After observing current situation,
ExtractTODO tasks from it
Point 日本語訳
Collect trustworthy intelligence 信頼できる情報を集める
Search similar cases 似ている事例を調べる
Specify the risk リスクを具体化する
Set priority 優先順位を決める
Not pursue perfect 完璧を求めない
Prevent recurrence
（悪いことがあったら）
再発を防止する
How to orient?
Maybe this part should be
Bottleneck soon…
この角度から見たら、
このプロジェクトは後半になると
OOがネックになりそうだ

44. 44
Small Workshop : Let’s Imagine what is Observe-Orient
You’re elementary school student and you have…
SummerVacation’s homework.
Vacation will finish soon
夏休みの宿題

45. 45
Small Workshop : Let’s Imagine what is Observe-Orient
entary school student and you have…
mmerVacation’s homework.
Vacation will finish soon
夏休みの宿題
What was my homework again?
宿題何だっけ。。？
How about others?
他のみんなはもう終わってる？
If I don’t do it?
やらなかったらどうなる？
What can I do first?
もう手遅れのものはいいから、
今の時点ではどこまでできるの？
How can I avoid this pressure?
次はどうしたら、簡単に解決できるかな？

46. 46
Decide(決断) : Deciding the next direction
Decide the next direction considering result of analysis
A B
C D
Do!

47. 47
Decide(決断) : Deciding the next direction
Decide the next direction considering result of analysis
AB
C
D
Do!

48. 48
Act(行動) : Acting the decision
Go!
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

49. 49
Main Difference with PDCA : Flexibility
PDCA : Planning is absolute until cycle is finished
OODA : Observing is absolute. Planning can be changed at any time
Plan Do
CheckAct
【Pngtree, https://pngtree.com/, 2020/12/28 】

50. 50
Leader in OODA loop
“After you.”
“Follow me.”
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

51. 51
Leader’s Role in OODA loop
Be the first piece of puzzle and indicate the entire direction

52. 52
Leader’s Role in OODA loop
And support others to locate well

53. 53
OODA X SCRUM

54. 54
Loop
Observe Orient
DecideAct
【ultraupdate, https://www.ultraupdates.com/2015/03/colourful-geometric-loop-gifs-by-florian-de-looij, 2020/12/28 】

55. 55
Sprint1 Sprint2
Sprint3Sprint4
Scrum is also recursive process
【ultraupdate, https://www.ultraupdates.com/2015/03/colourful-geometric-loop-gifs-by-florian-de-looij, 2020/12/28 】

56. 56
Escape from myth that planning should be the absolute first step
We don’t need to make great plan
Scrum is NOT just straight process
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

57. 57
How can we make sprint be more flexible?
変化の可能性を受け入れた上で、
普段からその変化に対する準備をしておかないといけない
With OODA,
Accept all risks
Getting ready to correspond to the changes

58. 58
What kind of risks can we treat?
Risk
Unexpected
Expected “Someday, it should be trouble breaking sprint.”

59. 59
My Practice : What is expected risk?
We have automated regression test system but some day the success rate was 99%.
But we ignored it considering it’s just automated test’s issue.The failing cases were more and more.
We thought it’s risky but we didn’t have enough time to fix them trusting they’re just known issues.
Eventually, success rate was up to 94%
100 99 98 96%…

60. 60
My Practice : What is expected risk?
We have automated regression test system but some day the success rate was 99%.
But we ignored it considering it’s just automated test’s issue.The failing cases were more and more.
We thought it’s risky but we didn’t have enough time to fix them trusting they’re just known issues.
Eventually, success rate was up to 96%
100 99 98 96%…
Unfortunately, we missed that the one of known issues (just we seems) resulted in trouble.
Managers lost trust for the auto test’s quality.
Until recovering the trust, it took more time than fixing the issues beforehand of trouble.

61. 61
My Practice : What is expected risk?
We have automated regression test system but some day the success rate was 99%.
But we ignored it considering it’s just automated test’s issue.The failing cases were more and more.
We thought it’s risky but we didn’t have enough time to fix them trusting they’re just known issues.
Eventually, success rate was up to 96%
100 99 98 96%…
Unfortunately, we missed that the one of known issues (just we seems) resulted in production trouble.
Managers lost trust for the auto test’s quality.
Until recovering the trust, it took more time than fixing the issues beforehand of production trouble.
We should have perceived the severity and fixed it earlier

62. 62
How to improve Scrum
with OODA

63. 63
Observe : Analyze risk beforehand
Observe current Scrum
Forecast upcoming bottleneck / trouble with simplified
Sprint
Member’s working time
Is longer and loger, why?
Many tickets are
left until the last day, why?
Sprint planning takes
So much time but cannot
cover all, why?

64. 64
Orient : Extract meanings from
Drill down the problems specifying it
Many tickets are
left until the last day…!!
“Is this alright?”
Pull requests are created in the last day of sprint
Reviewers don’t have enough time to check it
Review quality should be lower
It’s probable that
we cannot catch bugs even if it will be trouble

65. 65
Decide : Readiness with Pessimism
Compare each problems’ priority and decide what to resolve first,
Imagining damage from the worst scenario
Product Backlog
Fix for Problem A
Fix for Problem B
…
Evaluate risks
Problem A : S
Problem B : S
Problem C : B+
Problem D : B+

66. 66
We should fix expected trouble ASAP
予測可能な限り、普段からトラブル対応を行う必要がある

67. 67
We should fix expected trouble ASAP
予測可能な限り、普段からトラブル対応を行う必要がある
It will enhance sprint quality from the next loop
それによって、次のスプリントがより安定する

68. 68
Act : Correspondence with Optimism
OODA
Orient
DecideAct
Observe
‘Sprint Planning’
is the start of acting
Sprint Backlog
Task A
Task B
Fix for Problem A
Fix for Problem B

69. 69
OODA is NOT NECESSARILY the answer
Direction has strong dependency with leader’s character.
It will be future risk that the direction should be lost
when the leader leave the organization
リーダの交代時
大きな方向において、一貫性を失ってしまうことがある

70. 70
We should have big picture first
【ultraupdate, https://www.ultraupdates.com/2015/03/colourful-geometric-loop-gifs-by-florian-de-looij, 2020/12/28 】
Sprint

71. 71
We should have big picture first
Road Map
【ultraupdate, https://www.ultraupdates.com/2015/03/colourful-geometric-loop-gifs-by-florian-de-looij, 2020/12/28 】

72. 72
PDCA should be considered together
Road Map
Plan Do
CheckAct
【ultraupdate, https://www.ultraupdates.com/2015/03/colourful-geometric-loop-gifs-by-florian-de-looij, 2020/12/28 】

73. 73
SCRUM MASTER
with OODA

74. 74
Scrum Master is NOT leader but
Considering OODA is for decision making,
Someone should be decision maker.
Like it or not, Scrum Master should play the role as key person.

75. 75
Keep studying practices for better observing
Seeing others’ Scrum process,
Know which practice can be the best for us matching it with team’s situation
Company A’s practice Company B’s practice Company C’s practice Company D’s practice
A + C
can be useful..
D is good but
it’s not
matched with us

76. 76
Keep trying to find current / future risk
Simplifying current status, try to find risk.
And pursue countermeasure and measures to prevent recurrence
Stories（物事・出来事）

77. 77
Decide well cooperating with members
No need to do ALL by yourself.
Scrum master is not alone.
OpinionA
Opinion B
Decision
based on A, B
comprehensive review

78. 78
Act with confidence : Don’t hesitate to suggest to terminate sprint
Changing direction is NATURAL on OODA
If you feel the sprint seems wrong,
it’s better to stop and restart with updated decision.
It’s NOT waste.
Stop!
Should I really stop?
What a waste of time…
本当に止めていいの？
みんなに申し訳ないし、
もったいないんだけど。。

79. 79
Boost OODA loop on Scrum involving others
Indicating team’s direction to members,
Scrum master should support for them to have ownership
proactively thinking about team’s status with OODA loop.
OODA

80. 80
Be healthy
体調管理に全集中！
【Pexel, https://images.pexels.com/, 2020/12/28 】

81. 81
OODA Workshop on
RSGT2022

82. 82
TBU
TBU
PleaseVOTE
On RSGT2022
OODA X SCRUM
TRAINING
OODAの観点から、
１）スクラムを見る
２）スクラムでの問題を解決する