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Return Over Influence
          Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case
                 Web Analytics Association
               São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009




marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu          Twitter: @mcoutinho
Overview

• Social Networks on the Internet
• Digital Social Networks in Brazil
• The case for advertising
  – Brands and Social Capital

• Old AND New Metrics
• Debate

                                 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
Social Networks on the Internet




                          Sociable Media, MIT Media Lab
Social Networks are
older than the Internet…




                       marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
But the web amplify their reach




                         marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
South Korea
                                                                       Russia
                                                                                                       9.7m
                                               Denmark
                                                                        2.4m
                                                0.3m


                       UK                                Poland
                      4.5m Netherlands
                              1.6m                        1.1m

                                   Germany
 USA
         CANADA
          1.6m
                          France
                                    5.2m
                                                           Czech
                                                         Romania
                                                           0.6m
                                                          0.5m
                                                                                  China                            Japan
                                                      Hungary
                                   Switzerland
                                                                                                                    14m
26.4m                       4m       0.5m      Austria 0.1m
                                                0.4m Greece
                                                      0.3mTurkey                   43m
                               Italy                            2m   Pakistan
                  Spain        3.4m
                                                                      0.97m                               Taiwan
                  4.5m                                                                                     4.2m

        MEXICO
         4.1m
                                                                                                    Philippines    % Write their own
                                                                     India                   Hong
                                                                                             Kong
                                                                                                       2.4m
                                                                                                                   blog
                                                                                              1m
                                                                     8.7m                                          60%+

        BRAZIL                                                                                                     40% -60%
                                                                                        Australia
         7.6m                                                                             1m
                                                                                                                   30%-40%
                                                                                                                   <30%




                                                                        Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
South Korea
                                                                                    Russia                        9.4m
                                                                                     6.1m
                                       Netherlands
                                          3.7m                         Poland
                             UK                                Denmark
                                                                0.6m
                                                                        2.7m
                             11m


                    CANADA
                                                Germany                   Romania
                                                                         Czech
                                                                            1.4m
                                                                         0.8m
                                                                                             China                              Japan
                                                 8.2m
                                                                                                                                12.4m
           USA       4.2m          France
                                    4.2m       Switzerland
                                                                Hungary
                                                                  1m
                                                                          Turkey              39m
           43m                                   0.9m        Austria
                                                              0.6m
                                                                           3.3m
                                                                       Greece
                                             Italy                               Pakistan
                               Spain                                    0.5m
                                                                                  1.8m
                                             3.9m                                                                      Taiwan
                               4.7m
                                                                                                                        3.9m
                                                                                     India
                 MEXICO
                  5.1m                                                               11.7m     Hong Kong
                                                                                                  1m          Philippines
                                                                                                                  3m


% joined a                BRAZIL
social network             11.4m
70%+
                                                                                                           Australia
                                                                                                            2.6m
60% -69%
50%-59%
<49%



                                                                                Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
Digital Social Networks in Brazil




                 Revista Época, 10/3/2008

                                   marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Brazil is the leading country in
  time spent on the internet




                          marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Member Communities usage




                    marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Most Popular Categories - BR




                               Source: IBOPE
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Time Spent on “social usage” on the internet in
Brazil is almost 50% higher than in US



                                                            11,8   8,0



                                                                   3,6

                                                                   3,5

                       3,7                    3,5




                       1,7



                             Source: State of the Media Survey 2009 / Deloitte
Q - What does it mean for advertising?
 A – First, that a costumer can generate in a
week more GRPs than you can buy in a year…




                                  marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
…and second, this can cost
   you a lot of money




                             Source: Wired
… even if you are a bar in São Paulo




                           marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
Source: Trust Barometer, Edelman, 2008
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
Digital social networks will change the way that
 we relate to the news, brands and products




  NP



   Radio




                                               Source: BBC
It is not the end of “Broadcast”, but it
       is the birth of “Socialcast”
marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
The death of the “opinion leader” or the
    birth of the “opinion climate”?




               Source: Colective Dynamics Group, Columbia University
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
The real value generated by brands
and the consumer > facts

Consumers recognize (and search
for) the trophies related to their
values and brands (media, websites,
social networks, etc)

And happily “socialcast” these
values to their own networks

                marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
Source: Forrester Research, 2009.
A new type of market for Brands:
Social Capital and Social Currency
The trade for Facts


 Trust                                   Benefits

                                    Emotional
                                    Satisfaction

Communication      Social           1.
                                    2.
                                          Altruistic
                                          Competitive      Social
                   Capital                                Currency
                                    Operational

                                    Financial
Expertise                           (reduction of
                                    Transaction costs)




                Adapted from Bourdieu, 1997; Goshal, 1998; Scheinkman, 2000
Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho
Broadcast Metrics can
be applied to a Socialcast world?




                           marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Yes, but with care
    Quantitative Metrics - IAB
• Exposition (Broadcast)
     • Visitors / Unique Visitors
     • Visits
     • Time Spent
• Interactions (Socialcast)
     •   Uploads / Downloads
     •   Messages
     •   Comments / Answers / Votes
     •   Friends
     •   Incoming Links
     •   Members
                                      marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Qualitative Socialcast Metrics still in
           beta…(ESPM)
• Relevancy
  – Number of relevant posts / number of total posts


• Dialogue extension and depth
  – First comment / Last comment (recency)


• Favorability
  – (number of total post – negative posts) / number of total
    posts



                                          marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
What is an opinion to a machine?

It is a "quintuple", an object made up of 5 different things:




         Oj = The thing in question (i.e product)

                      f jk = a feature of Oj
SO ijkl = the sentiment value of the opinion of the opinion
         holder hi on feature fjk of object oj at time tl
 These 5 elements have to be identified by the machine


          Source: Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Pang & Lee, 2008
It is not old X new metrics,
      but old AND new
Advertising is moving from a world built around
Cathedrals (Broadcast media consumption,
tools and metrics)…




                                     marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
… to a world ruled by the logic of the bazaar
(even if the same owner has a lot of outlets)




                                     marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
Socialcast “channels”
and we are just beginning
Return Over Influence
          Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case
                 Web Analytics Association
               São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009




marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu          Twitter: @mcoutinho

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Socialcast Return Over Influence Web2.0 Coutinho

  • 1. Return Over Influence Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case Web Analytics Association São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho
  • 2. Overview • Social Networks on the Internet • Digital Social Networks in Brazil • The case for advertising – Brands and Social Capital • Old AND New Metrics • Debate marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 5. Social Networks on the Internet Sociable Media, MIT Media Lab
  • 6. Social Networks are older than the Internet… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 7. But the web amplify their reach marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 10. South Korea Russia 9.7m Denmark 2.4m 0.3m UK Poland 4.5m Netherlands 1.6m 1.1m Germany USA CANADA 1.6m France 5.2m Czech Romania 0.6m 0.5m China Japan Hungary Switzerland 14m 26.4m 4m 0.5m Austria 0.1m 0.4m Greece 0.3mTurkey 43m Italy 2m Pakistan Spain 3.4m 0.97m Taiwan 4.5m 4.2m MEXICO 4.1m Philippines % Write their own India Hong Kong 2.4m blog 1m 8.7m 60%+ BRAZIL 40% -60% Australia 7.6m 1m 30%-40% <30% Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
  • 11. South Korea Russia 9.4m 6.1m Netherlands 3.7m Poland UK Denmark 0.6m 2.7m 11m CANADA Germany Romania Czech 1.4m 0.8m China Japan 8.2m 12.4m USA 4.2m France 4.2m Switzerland Hungary 1m Turkey 39m 43m 0.9m Austria 0.6m 3.3m Greece Italy Pakistan Spain 0.5m 1.8m 3.9m Taiwan 4.7m 3.9m India MEXICO 5.1m 11.7m Hong Kong 1m Philippines 3m % joined a BRAZIL social network 11.4m 70%+ Australia 2.6m 60% -69% 50%-59% <49% Source: Universal McCann Social Media Tracker March 2008
  • 12. Digital Social Networks in Brazil Revista Época, 10/3/2008 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 13. Brazil is the leading country in time spent on the internet marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 14. Member Communities usage marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 15. Most Popular Categories - BR Source: IBOPE
  • 17. Time Spent on “social usage” on the internet in Brazil is almost 50% higher than in US 11,8 8,0 3,6 3,5 3,7 3,5 1,7 Source: State of the Media Survey 2009 / Deloitte
  • 18. Q - What does it mean for advertising? A – First, that a costumer can generate in a week more GRPs than you can buy in a year… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 19. …and second, this can cost you a lot of money Source: Wired
  • 20. … even if you are a bar in São Paulo marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 22. Source: Trust Barometer, Edelman, 2008
  • 25. Digital social networks will change the way that we relate to the news, brands and products NP Radio Source: BBC
  • 26. It is not the end of “Broadcast”, but it is the birth of “Socialcast”
  • 28. The death of the “opinion leader” or the birth of the “opinion climate”? Source: Colective Dynamics Group, Columbia University
  • 30. The real value generated by brands and the consumer > facts Consumers recognize (and search for) the trophies related to their values and brands (media, websites, social networks, etc) And happily “socialcast” these values to their own networks marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 33. A new type of market for Brands: Social Capital and Social Currency The trade for Facts Trust Benefits Emotional Satisfaction Communication Social 1. 2. Altruistic Competitive Social Capital Currency Operational Financial Expertise (reduction of Transaction costs) Adapted from Bourdieu, 1997; Goshal, 1998; Scheinkman, 2000
  • 35. Broadcast Metrics can be applied to a Socialcast world? marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 36. Yes, but with care Quantitative Metrics - IAB • Exposition (Broadcast) • Visitors / Unique Visitors • Visits • Time Spent • Interactions (Socialcast) • Uploads / Downloads • Messages • Comments / Answers / Votes • Friends • Incoming Links • Members marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 37. Qualitative Socialcast Metrics still in beta…(ESPM) • Relevancy – Number of relevant posts / number of total posts • Dialogue extension and depth – First comment / Last comment (recency) • Favorability – (number of total post – negative posts) / number of total posts marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 38. What is an opinion to a machine? It is a "quintuple", an object made up of 5 different things: Oj = The thing in question (i.e product) f jk = a feature of Oj SO ijkl = the sentiment value of the opinion of the opinion holder hi on feature fjk of object oj at time tl These 5 elements have to be identified by the machine Source: Opinion Mining and Sentiment Analysis, Pang & Lee, 2008
  • 39. It is not old X new metrics, but old AND new
  • 40. Advertising is moving from a world built around Cathedrals (Broadcast media consumption, tools and metrics)… marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 41. … to a world ruled by the logic of the bazaar (even if the same owner has a lot of outlets) marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu
  • 43. and we are just beginning
  • 44. Return Over Influence Socialcast Metrics – The Brazilian case Web Analytics Association São Paulo, Brazil, October 2009 marcelo.coutinho@post.harvard.edu Twitter: @mcoutinho