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Key Populations
and the HIV Epidemic
Lessons Learned in M&E and
Future Directions
Sharon S Weir, PhD
MEASURE Evaluation
University of North Carolina
May 11, 2016
USAID Brown Bag Lunch
Global, five-year, $180M cooperative agreement
Strategic objective:
To strengthen health information systems – the
capacity to gather, interpret, and use data – so
countries can make better decisions and sustain good
health outcomes over time.
Project overview
Improved country capacity to manage health
information systems, resources, and staff
Strengthened collection, analysis, and use of
routine health data
Methods, tools, and approaches improved and
applied to address health information challenges and
gaps
Increased capacity for rigorous evaluation
Phase IV Results Framework
Global footprint (more than 25 countries)
title
Acknowledgments
MEASURE Evaluation:
• Jess Edwards, Zahra Reynolds, Sarah Hileman, Grace Mulholland,
Becky Wilkes
Global Fund/UNAIDS/WHO
• Jinkou Zhao, Keith Sabin, Txema Calleja
LINKAGES
• Agatha Bula, Jean Lambert Chalachala, Lauren Zalla, William Miller,
Whitney Ewing, Kathy Lancaster, Kate Muessig, Ernest Malenga, country
teams
Collaborations
• MESH Consortium / Gates Foundation / University of West Indies /
University of Manitoba / Makerere University / Enda Santé / FHI360
Overview
Shakespeare
NC Bathroom Bill
Star Wars
Responsible and timely M&E for action
Shakespeare
The Duke pretends to leave Vienna but disguises himself as a
friar and remains to observe what happens. Claiming to act
against corruption, his deputy Angelo sentences a man to death
for getting his girlfriend pregnant. The man’s sister comes to
plead for mercy for her brother. Angelo agrees to pardon her
brother if she will sleep with him. (Hypocrite!) Eventually the
Duke sheds his disguise, sentences Angelo, frees the brother,
and marries the sister.
Responsible and timely M&E for action
Lesson Learned:
Distinctions between
surveillance, monitoring,
evaluation and taking
action are fading.
Surveillance should be
more immediately useful to
programs. Program data
should provide
epidemiologic indicators.
Evaluation
& Action
Surveillance
Monitoring
Make PLACE More Useful to Programs
• Mapping Readiness Assessment Tool
• QGIS Plug-In
• Cascade Estimation : prevention and
treatment
• Size estimation – Extrapolation
The Mapping Readiness
Assessment Tool
The MRA is a structured guide for
obtaining qualitative input from
stakeholders including key populations
(KPs), healthcare providers, public
officials and law enforcement.
Topics addressed include understanding
the socio-legal environment for KPs,
identifying available services and barriers
to healthcare for KPs, and exploring the
risks of collecting data on KPs.
1. To protect the rights and well-
being of key population
individuals and groups.
2. To adapt the study protocol to the
country context.
3. To ensure data use.
Objectives
“They didn’t consult with us prior to conducting the study, so
we don’t know what they did and we don’t trust the results.”
- Representative of an MSM organization in Haiti
IAS ABSTRACT 2016: Minimizing Unintended Risks of HIV-Related Programmatic Mapping
Among Key Populations: Introducing the Mapping Readiness Assessment (MRA)
K. Muessig1, L. Zalla2, E. Emmanuel3, A. Bula4, J. Chapola4, E. Mlenga4, J. Michel3, Y. Estiverne3, M. Herce5, W. Miller2, K. Lancaster2, S. Weir2
Background: Collecting information from key populations, may pose risks even if the purpose is to improve quality
and coverage of health services. Unintended risks can occur through confidentiality breaches, data misuse, or
drawing unwanted attention to hidden populations. The tool engages communities in a comprehensive assessment
of the risks of mapping.
Lessons Learned in South Africa, Haiti, Malawi and Angola: The MRA revealed differential access to services and
exposure to discrimination across KP sub-groups, particularly by socioeconomic class and locale. MRA
implementers learned alternative ways of reaching KPs, such as through social media, in countries where punitive
laws and discrimination limit their public visibility. We documented concerns that targeting KPs for HIV testing
could lead to further stigmatization or violence, by reinforcing the association between sex work and HIV, or
through perceptions that PM implementers are advocating for same-sex marriage or "recruiting" MSM. Action
steps resulting from the MRA included decisions to provide testing to all venue patrons and to alert local leaders
and authorities to PM prior to fieldwork.
Conclusions: MRAs can help governments, program implementers, and civil society engage KPs, protect rights, and
strengthen partnerships to ensure that data collected is ultimately used to improve KP services.
QGIS Tool for PLACE
QGIS is free and open-source software
Included in the package are:
1. Geographic data files such as administrative areas, rivers, roads
2. “My Maps” folder—a place to store your own maps
3. “QGIS”—a copy of the GIS software program and the plugin tool
4. “Start QGIS”—a shortcut that will start the Wizard
1
Select
Areas
2
Select
Variable
to Map
3
Select
Points
4
Output
Map
QGIS Plug In:
• Tool automatically
puts in the title
(from the first
dialog box), a scale
bar, and a legend.
• It classifies the
districts according
to the Excel file
containing the
priority levels (high,
low, and medium).
• It can classify the
point data which
was contained in
the Excel
spreadsheet with
the GPS locations
and other attribute
data.
More responsive to programs
PLACE Malawi: Female sex worker HIV care cascade identified by
social mobilizer during spot verification (PLACE Form B)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ever tested Tested within
prior 11 months
Ever told HIV-
infected
HIV testing history among FSW (n=361)
ALSO PREVENTION
CASCADE
• Interviewers facilitated linkage to care.
34 people with problems
accessing ART identified
during site visits April 16-28
• Escorted to lighthouse where she was given
one month emergency supply.
• Provider promised to follow up with Kawale
H/C.
Stopped taking medication.
She was afraid to go back to
the hospital after losing her
booklet
• Escorted to lighthouse where she was
restarted on medication as a transfer in.
Stopped taking medication
because her husband took
away her booklet and they
are now divorced. She
reported she was buying
ARVs from friends.
Lilongwe,
Malawi
title
Size estimation
Review
Revise
Extrapolate
R & R in Guyana
MESH
Choices. Labels. Stigma. Access.
NC Bathroom Bill
Labels.
NC Bathroom Bill
678
•Ever
had
sex
648 • 50+
231
•Exchanged
sex for
cash/gifts
148 • 26+
678 female workers at a sample
of venues where people meet
new sexual partners in Liuzhou
China. 50 had a positive rapid
test for syphilis. 24 were not sex
workers.
Number with a
positive rapid
test for syphilis.
• 148 exchanged
sex for cash in
past 4 weeks
Star Wars and HIV : A History
Jamaica
All parishes
Zimbabwe
Hwange District
Madagascar
7 cities
Zambia
Mongu
Kapiri Mposhi
Angola
Luanda
Tanzania
Magu
Rwanda
All 12 provinces
St. Lucia
Castries
Gros Islet
Anse la Raye
Haiti
Carrefour
Russia
Saratov-Engels
Samara
St. Petersburg
China
Liuzhou
Lesotho
Ficksburg, Maseru, Maputsoe,
Ladybrand, Fouriesburg, Butha
Buthe
South Africa
2 townships in Port Elizabeth
East London
1 Township in Cape Town
Mexico
Chetumal
Ciudad Hidalgo
Uzbekistan
Tashkent
Kyrgyzstan
Osh
Kazakhstan
Karaganda
Almaty
India
Bhubaneswar
Ghana
All 10 regions
Burkina Faso
Banfora
Tenkodogo
Kenya
All 8 provinces
DR Congo
Burundi
Guyana Uganda
Malawi
PLACE story is still a good one.
Problem addressed by PLACE has not changed:
Preventing HIV transmission at the local level
2005: “The PLACE method addresses the need for
rapidly available information to strategically target
and monitor local AIDS prevention.”
2016: The PLACE method addresses the need for
rapidly available information to strategically target
and monitor local HIV/AIDS prevention.
.
PLACE rationale—Bikini* version
The HIV pandemic is worldwide but transmission occurs in local
epidemics. Prevention should focus in geographic areas where HIV
incidence is highest.
Interrupting HIV transmission requires focusing on people with high
rates of new sexual or needle sharing contacts. Effective prevention
must be tailored to the local epidemic.
The PLACE method identifies venues and events where local
outreach could reach transmission networks and assesses program
coverage among those who need it most.
Note—Bikini version covers the essentials.
Causal Model
Underlying Proximate Biological
New HIV
Infections
Determinants Transmission
 Exposure to HIV
 Susceptibility to HIV
 Number of partners
 Lack of condom use
 Anal sex
 Lack of circumcision
Proximate Determinants model still works.
What IS new since 2005?
• New and more biomarkers
• New spatial mapping tools and mapping readiness
• New analysis tools
• New indicators including cascade indicators and coverage
indicators for combination prevention
• Adapted to align to 90/90/90 goals
• Adapted to oversample for key populations
• Adapted to obtain size estimates for key populations
• Adapted to extrapolate estimates to areas in the country
not included
• More experience in data use
Summary
Shakespeare
NC Bathroom Bill
Star Wars May the verse be with you!
MEASURE Evaluation is funded by the U.S. Agency for
International Development (USAID) under terms of Cooperative
Agreement AID-OAA-L-14-00004 and implemented by the
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at
Chapel Hill in partnership with ICF International, John Snow,
Inc., Management Sciences for Health, Palladium, and Tulane
University. The views expressed in this presentation do not
necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States
government.
www.measureevaluation.org

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Responsible and timely M&E for action

  • 1. Key Populations and the HIV Epidemic Lessons Learned in M&E and Future Directions Sharon S Weir, PhD MEASURE Evaluation University of North Carolina May 11, 2016 USAID Brown Bag Lunch
  • 2. Global, five-year, $180M cooperative agreement Strategic objective: To strengthen health information systems – the capacity to gather, interpret, and use data – so countries can make better decisions and sustain good health outcomes over time. Project overview
  • 3. Improved country capacity to manage health information systems, resources, and staff Strengthened collection, analysis, and use of routine health data Methods, tools, and approaches improved and applied to address health information challenges and gaps Increased capacity for rigorous evaluation Phase IV Results Framework
  • 4. Global footprint (more than 25 countries)
  • 5. title Acknowledgments MEASURE Evaluation: • Jess Edwards, Zahra Reynolds, Sarah Hileman, Grace Mulholland, Becky Wilkes Global Fund/UNAIDS/WHO • Jinkou Zhao, Keith Sabin, Txema Calleja LINKAGES • Agatha Bula, Jean Lambert Chalachala, Lauren Zalla, William Miller, Whitney Ewing, Kathy Lancaster, Kate Muessig, Ernest Malenga, country teams Collaborations • MESH Consortium / Gates Foundation / University of West Indies / University of Manitoba / Makerere University / Enda Santé / FHI360
  • 7. Responsible and timely M&E for action Shakespeare The Duke pretends to leave Vienna but disguises himself as a friar and remains to observe what happens. Claiming to act against corruption, his deputy Angelo sentences a man to death for getting his girlfriend pregnant. The man’s sister comes to plead for mercy for her brother. Angelo agrees to pardon her brother if she will sleep with him. (Hypocrite!) Eventually the Duke sheds his disguise, sentences Angelo, frees the brother, and marries the sister.
  • 8. Responsible and timely M&E for action Lesson Learned: Distinctions between surveillance, monitoring, evaluation and taking action are fading. Surveillance should be more immediately useful to programs. Program data should provide epidemiologic indicators. Evaluation & Action Surveillance Monitoring
  • 9. Make PLACE More Useful to Programs • Mapping Readiness Assessment Tool • QGIS Plug-In • Cascade Estimation : prevention and treatment • Size estimation – Extrapolation
  • 10. The Mapping Readiness Assessment Tool The MRA is a structured guide for obtaining qualitative input from stakeholders including key populations (KPs), healthcare providers, public officials and law enforcement. Topics addressed include understanding the socio-legal environment for KPs, identifying available services and barriers to healthcare for KPs, and exploring the risks of collecting data on KPs. 1. To protect the rights and well- being of key population individuals and groups. 2. To adapt the study protocol to the country context. 3. To ensure data use. Objectives “They didn’t consult with us prior to conducting the study, so we don’t know what they did and we don’t trust the results.” - Representative of an MSM organization in Haiti
  • 11. IAS ABSTRACT 2016: Minimizing Unintended Risks of HIV-Related Programmatic Mapping Among Key Populations: Introducing the Mapping Readiness Assessment (MRA) K. Muessig1, L. Zalla2, E. Emmanuel3, A. Bula4, J. Chapola4, E. Mlenga4, J. Michel3, Y. Estiverne3, M. Herce5, W. Miller2, K. Lancaster2, S. Weir2 Background: Collecting information from key populations, may pose risks even if the purpose is to improve quality and coverage of health services. Unintended risks can occur through confidentiality breaches, data misuse, or drawing unwanted attention to hidden populations. The tool engages communities in a comprehensive assessment of the risks of mapping. Lessons Learned in South Africa, Haiti, Malawi and Angola: The MRA revealed differential access to services and exposure to discrimination across KP sub-groups, particularly by socioeconomic class and locale. MRA implementers learned alternative ways of reaching KPs, such as through social media, in countries where punitive laws and discrimination limit their public visibility. We documented concerns that targeting KPs for HIV testing could lead to further stigmatization or violence, by reinforcing the association between sex work and HIV, or through perceptions that PM implementers are advocating for same-sex marriage or "recruiting" MSM. Action steps resulting from the MRA included decisions to provide testing to all venue patrons and to alert local leaders and authorities to PM prior to fieldwork. Conclusions: MRAs can help governments, program implementers, and civil society engage KPs, protect rights, and strengthen partnerships to ensure that data collected is ultimately used to improve KP services.
  • 12. QGIS Tool for PLACE QGIS is free and open-source software Included in the package are: 1. Geographic data files such as administrative areas, rivers, roads 2. “My Maps” folder—a place to store your own maps 3. “QGIS”—a copy of the GIS software program and the plugin tool 4. “Start QGIS”—a shortcut that will start the Wizard
  • 14. QGIS Plug In: • Tool automatically puts in the title (from the first dialog box), a scale bar, and a legend. • It classifies the districts according to the Excel file containing the priority levels (high, low, and medium). • It can classify the point data which was contained in the Excel spreadsheet with the GPS locations and other attribute data.
  • 15. More responsive to programs
  • 16. PLACE Malawi: Female sex worker HIV care cascade identified by social mobilizer during spot verification (PLACE Form B) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Ever tested Tested within prior 11 months Ever told HIV- infected HIV testing history among FSW (n=361) ALSO PREVENTION CASCADE
  • 17. • Interviewers facilitated linkage to care. 34 people with problems accessing ART identified during site visits April 16-28 • Escorted to lighthouse where she was given one month emergency supply. • Provider promised to follow up with Kawale H/C. Stopped taking medication. She was afraid to go back to the hospital after losing her booklet • Escorted to lighthouse where she was restarted on medication as a transfer in. Stopped taking medication because her husband took away her booklet and they are now divorced. She reported she was buying ARVs from friends. Lilongwe, Malawi
  • 19. Choices. Labels. Stigma. Access. NC Bathroom Bill
  • 20. Labels. NC Bathroom Bill 678 •Ever had sex 648 • 50+ 231 •Exchanged sex for cash/gifts 148 • 26+ 678 female workers at a sample of venues where people meet new sexual partners in Liuzhou China. 50 had a positive rapid test for syphilis. 24 were not sex workers. Number with a positive rapid test for syphilis. • 148 exchanged sex for cash in past 4 weeks
  • 21. Star Wars and HIV : A History
  • 22. Jamaica All parishes Zimbabwe Hwange District Madagascar 7 cities Zambia Mongu Kapiri Mposhi Angola Luanda Tanzania Magu Rwanda All 12 provinces St. Lucia Castries Gros Islet Anse la Raye Haiti Carrefour Russia Saratov-Engels Samara St. Petersburg China Liuzhou Lesotho Ficksburg, Maseru, Maputsoe, Ladybrand, Fouriesburg, Butha Buthe South Africa 2 townships in Port Elizabeth East London 1 Township in Cape Town Mexico Chetumal Ciudad Hidalgo Uzbekistan Tashkent Kyrgyzstan Osh Kazakhstan Karaganda Almaty India Bhubaneswar Ghana All 10 regions Burkina Faso Banfora Tenkodogo Kenya All 8 provinces DR Congo Burundi Guyana Uganda Malawi PLACE story is still a good one.
  • 23. Problem addressed by PLACE has not changed: Preventing HIV transmission at the local level 2005: “The PLACE method addresses the need for rapidly available information to strategically target and monitor local AIDS prevention.” 2016: The PLACE method addresses the need for rapidly available information to strategically target and monitor local HIV/AIDS prevention. .
  • 24. PLACE rationale—Bikini* version The HIV pandemic is worldwide but transmission occurs in local epidemics. Prevention should focus in geographic areas where HIV incidence is highest. Interrupting HIV transmission requires focusing on people with high rates of new sexual or needle sharing contacts. Effective prevention must be tailored to the local epidemic. The PLACE method identifies venues and events where local outreach could reach transmission networks and assesses program coverage among those who need it most. Note—Bikini version covers the essentials.
  • 25. Causal Model Underlying Proximate Biological New HIV Infections Determinants Transmission  Exposure to HIV  Susceptibility to HIV  Number of partners  Lack of condom use  Anal sex  Lack of circumcision Proximate Determinants model still works.
  • 26. What IS new since 2005? • New and more biomarkers • New spatial mapping tools and mapping readiness • New analysis tools • New indicators including cascade indicators and coverage indicators for combination prevention • Adapted to align to 90/90/90 goals • Adapted to oversample for key populations • Adapted to obtain size estimates for key populations • Adapted to extrapolate estimates to areas in the country not included • More experience in data use
  • 27. Summary Shakespeare NC Bathroom Bill Star Wars May the verse be with you!
  • 28. MEASURE Evaluation is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) under terms of Cooperative Agreement AID-OAA-L-14-00004 and implemented by the Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill in partnership with ICF International, John Snow, Inc., Management Sciences for Health, Palladium, and Tulane University. The views expressed in this presentation do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government. www.measureevaluation.org