2. • Source: Adapting to Climate Change in Africa, Melanie
Allen, December 22, 2008, www.ifpri.org
“The rain doesn’t come at
the usual, expected time
and the temperature is
increasing. There are many
problems because of
climate change, and the
indigenous way of farming
can’t support my family
anymore.”
Farmer near the
village of Harfu-Lole,
Ethiopia
PhotobyIFPRI
2
3. “Growing demand for food must be met
against a backdrop of rising global
temperatures and changing patterns of
precipitation. ………The extent to which
adaptation occurs (for example through the
development of crops and production
methods adapted to new conditions) will
critically influence how climate change
affects the food system.”
Growing concern that climate change threatens
food availability
4. Some recognition of population growth’s impact
on food security
“Future demand for food will thus be influenced by complex economic
and social drivers acting through population growth.”
Source: The Future of Food and farming (2011), Final report, Govt. Office for Science, London
“The goal of achieving food security will be made more difficult if
population growth rates cannot be reduced. The economic and
environmental costs of augmenting per capita food production may well
prove too great for countries whose populations grow faster than their
economies, resulting in greater poverty and fewer resources to fight it.”
Source: FAO 2005, PAI http://www.populationaction.org/Publications/Fact_Sheets/FS30/Summary.shtml
“A partial explanation for food insecurity is that the greatly increased
population of the Greater Horn may have approached or exceeded the
carrying capacity of the fragile environment in some areas. High
population growth must be dealt with immediately, even though the
impact of policies implemented now will only occur over the long-term.”
USAID Breaking the Cycle of Despair: President Clinton's Initiative on the Horn of
Africa, http://www.usaid.gov/regions/afr/ghai/cycle/causes.html
6. Climate change and agriculture
Climate change affects agricultural outputs
through:
– Rainfall (too much or too little)
– Carbon dioxide fertilization
– Temperatures
– Changes in length of growing seasons
7. There is growing scientific evidence that yields
are being threatened by climate change.
Source: Nature Climate Change, 13 March 2011
8. Factors influencing the demand for food
• Nutritional requirements
• Income
• Price
• Population size and
composition by age, sex
and rural-urban
9. Adaptation to climate change choices in agriculture
• Flood protection
• Drought tolerant crop varieties
• Irrigation
• Better mechanization
• Increased fertilizer use
• Rainwater storage
• Damming glacial lakes
• Geo-engineering
• Reduced demand via family planning
10. To understand the dynamic and complex
linkages we developed a model that links
population, food requirements and food supply
and demand. Model was piloted in Ethiopia.
• Population Model
• Food Requirements Model
• Economic Model
11. Physical
• Physical activity level
• Weight (kg)
Demographic
• Base year population
• Life expectancy
• Migration
Family Planning
• Fertility rate
• Method mix
• Proximate determinants
Economic
• Yields (based on cc)
• Investment rates
• Land use
Socioeconomic
• Female mortality
• Female education
• Safe water
Population
projection
• Population by
age and sex
• Pregnancies
Food
requirements
GLOBE
Economic
Model
Food
security
gap
Daily per capita kcal
required
Daily per capita kcal
consumed
Child
malnutrition
Food
prices
Data requirements
12. The Model’s
data inputs and outputs
Inputs
• Population data: taken from
Spectrum/FP scenarios
• Income and food price
forecasts/assumptions
• Physical activity assumptions
for demographic groups
• Diet composition
• Agricultural inputs: land under
cultivation and yield of various
crops and foodstuffs under
different climate change
scenarios
• Economic assumptions
Outputs
• Population by age and sex
• Food energy requirements
• Total demand for
foodstuffs, disaggregated by
type
• Total production and
consumption of
foodstuffs, disaggregated by
type
• Food “gap” estimated
• Nutritional impacts on
population and children
14. Ethiopia’s food security lies on
the edge
Food Security Outcomes, July 2011
• Source: FEWS NET and WFP 14
15. Source: UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles Ethiopia, accessed at
http://country-profiles.geog.ox.ac.uk
In Ethiopia, the data show that average
temperatures have increased in the recent past and
forecasts predict this to continue.
17. 17
Two future scenarios for fertility
and family planning in Ethiopia
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
TFR(TotalFertilityRate
CPR(ContraceptivePrevalenceRate)
TFR
CPR
18. 154
194
0
50
100
150
200
250
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Millionsofpeople
• Source: Spectrum projections, authors’ calculations
Ethiopia’s population is projected
to exceed150 million by 2050
18
Low Population
High Population
19. Age pyramids under two scenarios
Slow fertility decline Fast fertility decline
22. Men
30%
Women
25%
Children
45%
National kcal needs, 2010
Men
39%
Women
32%
Children
29%
National kcal needs, 2050
High Population Growth
Men
42%
Women
35%
Children
23%
National kcal needs, 2050
Low Population Growth
25. GLOBE
Economic
Model
Daily per capita kcal
consumed by food
category
Food Balance Sheet
kcal by food category
Growth rates of
food consumption
by food category
Determination of Food Consumption
Population Scenarios
Climate Change
Assumptions
Economic
Assumptions
26. Economic Assumptions: Ethiopia
Per Annum
Capital Stock Growth 2.50%
Ag land growth 0.90%
Non food mfg productivity growth 4%
Agproductivity growth 1.30%
Food processing productivity growth 4%
27. FAO Food Balance
Sheet for Ethiopia,
2007
Daily kcal food
consumption per
capita
Cereals 1305
Starchy roots 264
Sugar crops 0
Sugar & sweetners 56
Pulses 147
Treenuts 7
Oilcrops 9
Vegetable oils 40
Vegetables 11
Fruits 16
Stimulants 1
Spices 12
Alcoholic beverages 16
Meat and offals 50
Animal fats 15
Eggs 2
Milk 30
Seafood and fish 0
Other aquatic
products 0
miscellaneous 0
Total 1981
29. 65.9%
59.6% 58.6% 58.9%
20.7%
14.2% 14.1% 14.4%
2.5%
9.6% 10.5% 10.1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2010 2050: No climate
change, high
population
growth
2050: Climate
change, high
population
growth
2050: Climate
change, low
population
growth
Percentageoftotaldiet Changes in Dietary Composition: fewer cereals, roots and
tubers, more meat
Others
Animal fats
Meat & Offals
Sugar & Sweetners
Fruits and
Vegetables
Roots, Tubers, and
Pulses
Cereals
30. 1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Average daily per capita kcal consumption
No climate
change, high
population
growth
Climate
change, high
population
growth
Climate
change, low
population
growth
31. 0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Average daily per capita kcal shortfall
(requirements - consumption)
No climate
change, high
population growth
Climate change, high
population growth
Climate change, low
population growth
33. • Climate change is affecting agricultural systems.
• Food systems adaptation strategies are essential to
securing a country’s food supply and the health of its
people in the future.
• Family planning is one such adaptation strategy, and
also provides additional benefits.
Conclusions
33
Editor's Notes
Welcome to [event name…].Today we are pleased to share with you the results of a recent analysis of the linkages between climate change, food security, and population in Ethiopia. It draws on a wide range of Ethiopian and international data, including a modeling framework developed by the Futures Group, with support from the Measure Evaluation Project and the Packard Foundation. Many Ethiopians today remain vulnerable to shocks to the food system, putting them on the edge of food security. Today we will explore how climate change is expected to affect the agricultural system and the ability of Ethiopians to achieve food security. While many adaptation strategies address agricultural systems, we will also look at the other side of food security: population.
“The rain doesn’t come at the usual, expected time and the temperature is increasing. There are many problems because of climate change, and the indigenous way of farming can’t support my family anymore.”
First let’s review where Ethiopia is today in several relevant areas.
The USFamine Early Warning System (FEWS) monitors the food situation in Africa on a continuous basis. In their latest assessment much of Ethiopia today is facing a precarious food security situation. The map shows that large parts of the country are considered in a state of emergency, crisis, or stressed.
Our population projections show that Ethiopia’s population will exceed 150 million by 2050. In a scenario of lower population growth, we estimate a 2050 population of 154 million. In a scenario of higher population growth, we estimate a 2050 population of 194 million.