the slides is prepaired for phd synopsis to be submitted in Jamia Millia Islamia New Delhi India by mehebub sahana.

1. Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerabilities to Climate Change:
A study on Sundarban Biosphere Reserve, West Bengal
Synopsis
Submitted to the Board of Studies for the Consideration for Admission to
Doctor of Philosophy in Geography
by
Mehebub Sahana
Under the Supervision
of
Dr. Haroon Sajjad
Department of Geography
Faculty of Natural Sciences
Jamia Millia Islamia
New Delhi- 110025

2. Climate Change
Climate change is a significant time variation in weather patterns
occurring over periods ranging from decades to millions of years.
Climate change may refer to a change in average weather conditions, or
in the time variation of weather around longer-term average conditions
(i.e., more or fewer extreme weather events). Climate change is caused
by factors such as biotic processes, variations in solar radiation received
by Earth, plate tectonics, and volcanic eruptions. Certain human
activities have also been identified as significant causes of recent
climate change, often referred to as "global warming".

3. Climate change & Sundarban Biosphere
Reserve (SBR)
• The physical development processes along the coast are influenced by a multitude
of factors, comprising wave motions, micro and macro-tidal cycles and long shore
currents typical to the coastal tract. These are also affected by cyclonic action.
Erosion and accretion through these forces maintains varying levels, as yet not
properly measured, of physiographic change whilst the mangrove vegetation itself
provides a remarkable stability to the entire system. During each monsoon season
almost all the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve area is submerged, much of it for half
a year. The sediment of the lower delta plain is primarily advected inland by
monsoonal coastal setup and cyclonic events. One of the greatest challenges
people living on Sundarban biosphere reverve area may face in coming years is the
threat of rising sea levels caused mostly by subsidence in the region and partly by
climate change.
• the soil salinity is very high in Sundarbans biosphere reserve. a 2007 report by
UNESCO, "Case Studies on Climate Change and World Heritage" has stated that an
anthropogenic 45-cm rise in sea level (likely by the end of the 21st century,
according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), combined with
other forms of anthropogenic stress on the Sundarbans, could lead to the
destruction of 75% of the Sundarbans mangroves. Already, Lohachara Island and
New Moore Island/South Talpatti Island have disappeared under the sea, and
Ghoramara Island is half submerged.

4. Objective
• The study aims to achieve the following objectives:
• To find out the intensity of climate change in Sunderban biosphere reserve.
• To examine the role of climate change on ecological vulnerability.
• To assess the impact of climate change on economic vulnerability.
• To examine the impact of climate change on social vulnerability
• To assess the climatic impact vulnerability and adaptation.

5. Research Hypothesis
• Changing climate is putting great stress on ecological
security of the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve.
• Human life and livelihood is at risk due to changing
climate in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve.

6. Study Area
• The study area is spread over Sundarban Biosphere
Reserve (SBR) of west Bengal in India. the total area of
Sundarban biosphere region in India is 9630 sq km
between 21˚40'04”N and 22˚09'21”N latitude, and
88˚01'56”E and 89˚06'01”E longitude.
• The Indian Sundarban has divided in main three broad
geographical regions, Core Zone, Buffer Zone and
Transition Zone. The Sundarbans eco-region can be
categorized into three distinct divisions – the beach/sea
face, the swamp forests and the mature delta – based
on the bio-geophysical attributes.
• Sundarban biosphere reserve is spread in two major
district of West Bengal, South 24 Parganas and North 24
Parganas. Sundarban also covers 6 administrative blocks
of the adjacent North 24 Parganas district, besides 13
blocks in South 24 Parganas.

7. Location of the Study Area

8. Database & Methodology
• The study will be based on both primary and secondary
sources of data. The primary data for examining
ecological, social and economic vulnerability will be
collected through field work using structured
questionnaire. The data will be drawn from a
comprehensive survey. Stratified random sampling
technique will be applied. The secondary data will be
collected from different government agencies such as
Survey of India Topographical Sheet, Satellite data of
Landsat and IRS, DEM satellite data of Cartosat-1and
Rainfall and Temperature data from Meteorological
Department of India. Followings methodology will be
applied:

9. Changes in Precipitation and Temperature
• All of the climatic parameters will be examined to
observe the rate of climate change. Monthly and
yearly data of rainfall and temperature variables of
last five decades will be used in statistical model to
calculate the climate change intensity and its
influence. For land surface temperature estimation
and change temporal data of Landsat TM will be
used.

10. Soil Salinity Analysis
• Soil salinity will be analyzed by soil PH method and
the soil regions will be classified according to USDA
soil classification. Soil samples will be compared with
the soil PH data of Indian Council of Agricultural
Research.

11. Land use & land cover Dynamics
• The land use/ land cover maps of the study area will be
prepared for different time periods to analyze the land
use change dynamics as a consequence of climate
change. The changing tendency of agriculture land use,
degradation of River Island, wetlands, forest, built up
area, etc. will be assessed. The generated land use/
land cover maps of the different time periods will be
validated by conducting ground survey. Global
Positioning System (GPS) will be used to collect the
accurate locations of the reference points, which will
be used in the validation. Vegetation indices (VIs) will
be applied to analyze the changes in vegetation cover.

12. River Bank Embankment & Sea Surface rising
CRITERIA GEOTECHNICAL INDICATOR
Bank Materials and
Geotechnical
Attributes
Geometry of
Embankment
Hydraulic
Pressure
Soil Texture,
Bulk Density,
Plasticity Index,
Bank Top
Height, Bank
Width, Bank
Slop
Water
Height
Assignment
of
Weight
and
Rank
Value
River
Embankment
Breaching
Vulnerability
Index

13. Ecological Vulnerability Index
• The biotic and abiotic components will be taken
as an indicator to compute the ecological
vulnerability index. The indicators contain
physical aspects of the study area viz.
degradation of River Island, degradation of wet
lands, soil salinity, depletion of forest, loss of
aquatic plants and animals, etc.

14. Social Vulnerability Index
• House type, drinking water, sanitation, family
size, educational status, infant mortality, life
expectancy, etc will be collected to assess social
vulnerability to climate change.

15. Economic Vulnerability Index
• Economic vulnerability index will be calculated by
taking economic indicators like type of
occupation, household income, accessibility of
resource, resource dependency, migration etc

16. Vulnerability Index
Where,
i=Variables (1, 2, 3, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . ,I)
j= Components (1, 2, 3, . . . . . . . . . ,J )
k = Blocks (1, 2, 3, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .K )
For the evaluation of vulnerability indices in Sundarban Biosphere
Reserve, the relative approach of UNDP for developing HDI on an inter-
country basis (UNDP, 1990 & 1992) will be applied. The analytical
approach essential for conducting Composite Vulnerability Indices in the
form of CVI is characterized by its four propositions of Social
Vulnerability Index (SVI), Economic Vulnerability Index (EVI) and
Ecological Vulnerability Index (Ec.VI). These vulnerability indices will be
calculated by selecting site specific indicators in the study area. The
stratified random sampling method will be applied to conduct study
area survey.
The CVI, the exposition of the relative approach to evaluate the relative
vulnerabilities status of a given set of entities is presented below.

17. Methodology for Ecological and Socio-economic Vulnerabilities to Climate Change
SIO
Topographic
al Sheet
SIO
Topographi
cal Sheet
SIO
Topographi
cal Sheet
ICAR Soil
PH Data
Demarcation
of Study Area
Subset Subset
Drainage Map
Road Network
Map
Settlement Map
Land Use Land
Cover Dynamics
Soil Map
GPS
Survey
River Bank
Embankment & Sea
Level Rising
Digital
Elevation
Model
Forest Cover Change
Land & Sea Surface
Temperature
Rainfall &
Temperature
Data
Impact of Climate
Change
Adaptation to
Climate Change
Ecological Vulnerability
Social Vulnerability
Economic Vulnerability
Socio-
economic
Survey

18. Tentative Chapter Scheme
Introduction
• Objectives
• Hypotheses
• Study area
• Database and Methodology
• Review of Literature
• Chapter Scheme
Chapter One: Climate change impact on
Sundarban biosphere reserve ecosystem
1.1 Temperature variation
1.2 Disruption of rainfall pattern
1.3 Cyclones
1.4 Flood
1.5 Sea level rise
Chapter Two: Climate Change and land
use/land cover dynamics
2.1 Forest
2.2 Agriculture
2.3 Built up area
2.4 Water bodies
Chapter Three: Ecological vulnerability to
climate change
3.1 Land degradation
3.2 Soil degradation
3.3 Forest degradation
3.4 Islands and wetlands
3.4 Fauna
Chapter Four: Social vulnerability to climate
change
4.1 Demographic characteristics
4.2 Living environment
4.3 social indicators
Chapter Five: Economic vulnerability to climate
change
5.1 Types of occupation
5.2 Household income
5.3 Accessibility of resource
5.4 Resource dependency
5.5 Migration
Chapter Six: Adaptation capacity to climate
change
6.1 Ecological adaptation
6.2 Social adaptation
6.3 Economic adaptation
Conclusion
Bibliography
Appendices

19. Adaptation to climate change
• Ecological adaptation
• Social adaptation
• Economic adaptation

20. References
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21.  USDA, (1954). Diagnosis and improvement of saline and alkali soils. U.S.Dept. of
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 http://indianexpress.com/article/india/regional/sundarbans-where-farmers-sell-
goats-to-protect-trees/
 http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/hungry-tide-mangroves-on-
hooghly-bank-set-off-fear-of-rising-sea/
 http://indianexpress.com/article/cities/kolkata/tell-world-about-sunderbans-
fragility-state-to-centre/

22. Thank you