How should the policy community react to the transition for voice from circuits to packets? This presentation describes some of the issues in using packets, the role of the regulator in addressing them, and suggests an alternative regulatory approach. This includes a "Pigouvian tax" on the use of numbers where the quality assurance is not provided.
9. |9
IPX
High perceived value
The first application of networks is usually voice, and take-up among network users is typically close to 100%
10. |10
Failure is very visible
Even short failures are very obvious. The endowment effect means that losing the quality level you have become accustomed to causes great dissatisfaction. This can create a crisis of legitimacy for regulators.
11. |11
Low data volume
Everyone knows that voice doesn’t use much ‘bandwidth’, but that isn’t really the issue.
25. Intensify
resource sharing
Packet networks take ‘fill the silences’ to its logical conclusion. It’s bit like taking a small piece of land, and sharing it among many people.
28. |28
BT 21CN VOICE
The UK incumbent operator spent a lot of money trying to replace circuits with packets for landline voice calls
29. FAILED
Yet the project was infeasible from the outset: they tried to fit the packet signalling within the timing constraints of the circuit network, which was impossible.
30. |30
IPX
These are not isolated issues, but are endemic to our industry. Consider the standard for quality-managed packet voice, IPX.
31. IPX Specification IR.34 v9.1§6.3.4
This does not specify a working phone call! The average over a month could still allow for a 40 minute period with 100% loss, and be compliant.
32. IPX performance and cost issues
Why? Media and signalling are joined, which forces traffic the “long way”
?
37. |37
Everything fails under load. Why? No call admission control (CAC), so no graceful degradation.
Large European MNO’s enterprise converged voice service
39. |39
VoLTE
High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
40. |40
VoLTE
High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
41. |41
VoLTE
High cost of association management Why? It needs IMS
High cost of quality Why? Weak scheduling; waste in code space + backhaul
Limited revenue Why? Assurance only offered to telephony, not other apps
42. |42
Small cells
Failure due to timing issues Why? Media, signalling, network control are on the same path. These lack isolation; have a coupled load; result is self-induced failure.
43. |43
Small cells
Failure due to timing issues Why? Media, signalling, network control are on the same path. These lack isolation; have a coupled load; result is self-induced failure.
44. |44
Broadband voice
Growing voice quality problems
Why? Worsening “non-stationarity”
QoS suffers from “quality inversion”
AQM creates new failure hazards
Clever voice codecs just add more delay
45. |45
Broadband voice
Growing voice quality problems
Why? Worsening “non-stationarity”
QoS suffers from “quality inversion”
AQM creates new failure hazards
Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “Networking and the Internet’s ‘global warming’ problem”
46. |46
Broadband voice
Growing voice quality problems
Why? Worsening “non-stationarity”
QoS suffers from “quality inversion”
AQM creates new failure hazards
Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “The six challenges of selling QoS”
47. |47
Broadband voice
Growing voice quality problems
Why? Worsening “non-stationarity”
QoS suffers from “quality inversion”
AQM creates new failure hazards
Clever voice codecs just add more delay
See “Why Active Queue Management should worry telco investors”
48. |48
Broadband voice
Growing voice quality problems
Why? Worsening “non-stationarity”
QoS suffers from “quality inversion”
AQM creates new failure hazards
Clever voice codecs just add more delay
49. |49
DSL
Lack of service continuity
Why? ADSL – 30 sec retrain outages
VDSL – frequent short retrains
50. |50
DSL
Lack of service continuity
Why? ADSL – 30 sec retrain outages
VDSL – frequent short retrains
51. |51
Systemic risks
Going from 400+ to 6 switching centres with IP Transition: can anyone model the performance risks in disaster situations? (Answer: not really.)
57. Source: Wikipedia/Imperial War Museum
It’s like when we moved to jet aircraft. We didn’t understand the dynamic loading properties of the materials.
58. Source: Wikipedia/Krelnik
The result was catastrophic failure in operation. Passengers were flying what were in effect experimental aircraft. (SDN/NFV are experimental technologies being pushing into deployment…)
59. |59
Why? Circuit thinking! “Monoservice fallacy” The mistaken belief that capacity and schedulability are the same thing.
60. |60
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
61. |61
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
62. |62
Two very common basic technical errors: More capacity solves schedulability problems. Average measures are what matter.
63. |63
IMS manages capacity constraints not schedulability constraints
You might want to ask for your money back.
64. |64
This will get worse! SDN/NFV create more variability and aggregate failures.
70. |70
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
71. |71
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
72. |72
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
73. |73
Sustainability trap International voice quality assurance market will become irrelevant Why? Price reductions due to no quality floor Performance crises needing more equipment OTT outperforms PSTN/PLMN
74. |74
Economic crisis in voice market! Costs can’t drop (due to market size and overheads) but prices can!
75. |75
The OTT quality arbitrage is finite
So OTT can’t take up the slack
77. |77
Sustainable growth New revenue Quality floor and price floor established Wide range of assured services Lower costs Decreased requirement to buy equipment
78. |78
Sustainable growth New revenue Quality floor and price floor established Wide range of assured services Lower costs Decreased requirement to buy equipment
79. THE BIG QUESTION!
How to get trustworthy services, that are affordable, and enable innovation?
81. |81
Understand packets! “Translocation as a Service” (with contention) vs Circuit fragment (without contention)
Need to understand what the packet service is!
82. 4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH
1.The business model will change
2.The media will shift from circuits
3.Your power is over the E164 numbering
4.The future value is in trusted services
83. 4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH
1.The business model will change
2.The media will shift from circuits
3.Your power is over the E164 numbering
4.The future value is in trusted services
84. 4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH
1.The business model will change
2.The media will shift from circuits
3.Your power is over the E164 numbering
4.The future value is in trusted services
85. 4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH
1.The business model will change
2.The media will shift from circuits
3.Your power is over the E164 numbering
4.The future value is in trusted services
86. 4 REALITIES TO DEAL WITH
1.The business model will change
2.The media will shift from circuits
3.Your power is over the E164 numbering
4.The future value is in trusted services
96. E164 NUMBERS
•Your global trusted brand for quality assurance
•You can’t control the media delivery…
•…so focus on preserving value in the numbering and signalling
97. E164 NUMBERS
•Your global trusted brand for quality assurance
•You can’t control the media delivery…
•…so focus on preserving value in the numbering and signalling
98. MARKET STRUCTURE
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
The three basic jobs that get done in delivering phone calls
99. TODAY’S REVENUE MODEL
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Minutes
No billing for unanswered calls
No user charge for numbers
100. COST STRUCTURE
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Translocation costs
Association costs
Numbering costs
101. TODAY’S (RELATIVE) COSTS
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Falling fast
Falling slowly/rising
Fixed/rising
102. POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax
103. POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax
Anti-spam
104. POSSIBLE FUTURE MODEL?
MEDIA
SIGNALLING
IDENTITY
Bill and keep
Charge for unanswered or rejected calls
Pigouvian tax
111. STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality.
3.Encourage development of new markets.
112. STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality.
3.Encourage development of new markets.
Significant market power
113. STRETCH QUALITY TARGET USES
1.Criteria for license renewal and setting price of license.
2.Trade SMP for higher quality.
3.Encourage development of new markets.
Such as higher definition, WebRTC assurance, video.
117. Take control over the systemic performance hazards
(as operators and their suppliers aren’t doing it)
118. FILL THE GAP IN STANDARDS FOR QUALITY
•The ITU needs to step up!
•Provide scientific and thought leadership
•Create standards for composable quality metrics that are a strong QoE proxy
119. THREE LAYER POLYSERVICE MODEL
Superior traffic costs more to deliver… so should attract a premium
Economy
Standard
Superior
Standard traffic is today’s off-peak Internet… but is consistently the same
Economy traffic does not drive capacity upgrades
120. Cost of 80 hours of voice/month?
25¢
(translocation cost only, based on UK cost metrics)
121. SUMMARY
1.Move the money! Identity and assurance is where it will be.
2.Light touch on how services are delivered, but a strong grip on what quality.
3.Pro-consumer and pro-citizen policies that align with packet technical reality.
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