New Voice Opportunities at ITU Telecom World 2013

New Opportunities
in Voice and Messaging
ITU Telecom World 2013, Bangkok
Dean Bubley & Martin Geddes
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com
mail@martingeddes.com

About Disruptive Analysis
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London-based analyst house & strategic consulting firm
Cross-silo, contrarian, visionary, independent
Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors
Covering VoIP since 1997 & 3G/4G mVoIP since 2007
Critic of RCS since 2008
Published report on “Telco-OTT Strategies”, Feb 2012
Report on WebRTC, Feb 2013, updated Jun & Nov 2013
Workshops on WebRTC, Future of Voice & TelcoOTT

Twitter @disruptivedean
November 2013

Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd and
Martin Geddes Consulting Ltd 2013

About Martin Geddes Consulting
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Strategy consulting on broadband, voice and cloud services
Industry thought leader – Sprint, BT, Telco 2.0
Focus on network performance and next-gen voice services
Blogging and speaking on OTT and Future of Voice since 2003
Co-founder and Executive Director of Hypervoice Consortium
Workshops on Future of Voice & TelcoOTT

Twitter @martingeddes

November 2013

Free newsletter: martingeddes.com


To learn more…

www.disruptive-analysis.com
www.martingeddes.com
MORE

November 2013


Declaration of relevant business interests


Martin:
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Board member: Voxygen
Client: HarQen
Advisory board: VoiceSage
Business advisor: Predictable Network Solutions
Paid by Hypervoice Consortium members
Many other consulting clients

Dean:
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Many research and consulting clients across telecoms ecosystem
(too many to list them all here!)
Advisor: Voxygen, Temasys, Movirtu

November 2013


A map of the ‘new world’ of voice

November 2013


Agenda

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Overview of the Future of Voice (Martin)
The Death of Ubiquity (Dean)

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Beyond telephony: Value-added voice & Hypervoice (Martin)
Beyond telephony: WebRTC (Dean)

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So what and what next for telcos?

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November 2013


Overview of the
Future of Voice

Telephony is like a Marks & Spencer sandwich
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Perishable product
Beautiful packaging
Own-branded only
No personalisation
 “Hold

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November 2013

the mayo…”

The highest quality…
…but at a high price

Voice evolution is suddenly accelerating

2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
“Telepocalypse”

November 2013



2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
Slow growth of OTTs & UC
Slow shift of TDM to IP for voice
Lots of good ideas, hard to implement
Broadband and smartphone explosion…
…but no change to core telephony offer
November 2013



2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
First
Future of Voice
Workshop

November 2013



2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015
Today

November 2013



Two years ago

Now

Volume & value
Predicting
declines in
“peak telephony”
mature markets

November 2013



Two years ago

Now

Risk of voice
over-supply

Risk of voice
under-demand

November 2013



Two years ago

Now

OTT =
threat

OTT =
opportunity

November 2013



Two years ago

Now

Voice-in-apps
as concept

APIs, WebRTC &
cloud telephony

November 2013



Two years ago

Now

4G voice &
messaging
doubts

VoLTE and RCS
problems real

November 2013


Mainstream opinion is finally catching up…
“After decades of stagnation, the voice landscape is undergoing
a seismic shift. Migration is in full swing to richer IP-based
communication, and Web real-time communication is expected
to significantly disrupt the value chain.

CSPs should reassess their strategy
to avoid being disenfranchised.”
“The Future Evolution of CSP Voice Services”
Gyanee Dewnarain, Research Director, Gartner
14 November 2013
November 2013


Voice is suddenly changing fast

2003 … … … 2011 … 2013 … 2015

?
November 2013


Voice gets “app stored”
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Demand-driven future
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No two users have the exact same
needs

Hyper-personalised
There is no “one-size-fits-all”
voice solution


Supply-centric outlook = death

November 2013


From ubiquity to Hi-Lo mix of communications
Sunglasses: $100
Jacket: $1000
Uniform: $150

Leggings: $10

November 2013


Your fate if you don’t adapt to changing context!

Marks & Spencer has revealed a 9.1% fall in half-year profits as
underlying sales of clothing and homewares
slipped back for the ninth consecutive quarter.

Tuesday 5 November 2013

November 2013


To learn more…

Sign up to the
Future of Communications
newsletter
http://eepurl.com/dSkfz
MORE

November 2013


For IP Communications,
Ubiquity is Dead

Neuroscience explains reluctance to change
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Predictable irrationality

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Endowment effect
Optimism bias
Confirmation bias
Defence of belief systems

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November 2013


Convergence
& standards

Fragmentation &
differentiation

Telephony & SMS will continue to exist,
but there will be
NO more standard, interoperable services

Comforting myths about demand
“Voice” = ubiquitous phone calls
Good quality is critical

Interoperability is essential
Minutes / messages = value
November 2013


Uncomfortable demand reality
Phone calls are
becoming less useful

Good quality is only sometimes critical
Interoperability is essential
for basic lowest-common
denominator services only
Intention & outcomes = value
October 2013


Essential supply consequences
Need personalisation and
contextualisation capabilities
Range of levels of network quality and cost…
…from unmanaged to assured
Shift focus to embedded voice
Need new demand-driven
services model
November 2013


In the beginning – “Proxi-phone”

Near voice

November 2013


Pretty good for the 19th century...
Old distant voice [Tele-phone]

>100 years ago

November 2013


... but really not good enough for 21st century

“Hegemony
of the
caller”

Fragmentation of communications models

Standalone
Circuit calls

Good to have “lowest
common denominator”

IP

Embedded
app/web
calls
Ubiquity no/negative
benefit
November 2013

Non-call
comms
Maybe ubiquitous
in a niche


Intent & context....

Why do people make
phone calls (or send
messages, share media
or use video), anyway?

November 2013


The chart you’ll never see…
Calls by purpose
Gossip
Meeting up
Flirting
Spam
Showing off
Work
Wasting time

November 2013


Different contexts

Out walking
Public transport

Living room

Board room

Bar

November 2013

At work
Airline lounge

1 OR 2 “UBIQUITOUS”
SERVICES CANNOT
FULFILL ALL THESE
PURPOSES WELL
November 2013


Tools are cheap/free. So we pick the right ones

SMS
November 2013


So how important is quality?
% calls

Must have

I'll call back
Nice to have

Meh. I want free

November 2013


Beyond “the minute” as a metric & model
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We don’t pay for movies or flights by the minute
Short calls often more valuable than long
Minutes = easy to count (and must be counted)
Locks telecom industry to obsolete business model
Regulator mindset needs to shift too

November 2013


Service

Product
Feature

Function

November 2013


Ubiquity is dead. And that’s a good thing.

November 2013


To learn more…

Sign up to the
Disruptive Wireless newsletter
http://eepurl.com/wAqC5

Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

November 2013


MORE

Voice Value-added Services

Voice VAS
Standard fixed +
mobile feature set

Next-gen
“mobile, social,
cloud” feature set

Standard feature set
(caller ID, voicemail,
forwarding, etc.)

Voice, video and
messaging

Audio conferencing

Call recording

Premium voice

Visual call control

Ringback tones

Source tracking

Centrex

Next-generation
conference calling

November 2013

Translation


“Hypervoice”

Singtel – concierge-type services

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“Next-generation Yellow Pages + search, for voice”
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More than 150,000 local businesses and 7,000 hawker locations
Singapore English and local terms
Mobile-app based

November 2013


Yes, you can compete with Google (and win!)

“We have spent a lot of effort to ensure the
app is able to understand the way
Singaporeans speak English,
and this sets deF!ND apart from other
voice recognition apps that have been
developed abroad”

November 2013


If you can’t beat them…

Nigeria
+

November 2013

Philippines
+


DoCoMo - automatic voice translation service

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World’s first commercial mobile service for translation of
conversations between people speaking Japanese and other
languages.
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

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Hanashite Hon’yaku provides translations between Japanese and the
receiver’s language.
Translations are provided both as screen text and voice readouts.

Dial the other party using an Android app for DOCOMO
smartphones and tablets running Android 2.2 or higher.

November 2013


Tropo Ameche – telco-centric “voice apps store”

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Integrated with telco core network
Wide range of capabilities (e.g. voice whisper)

November 2013


CallTrunk – consumer call recording

Capture
November 2013

Cloud
integration

Search
and analyse

VoiceBase – enterprise call search

November 2013


Cloud/SaaS integration is important

November 2013


Op3nVoice - Call recording seems to be ‘hot’

November 2013


C2B Inbound call source/lead tracking

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Optimise the ROI of your marketing campaigns
Compare response rates of different marketing channels with
unique trackable phone numbers

November 2013


SME: Telefonica Azul - Rich visual call control
1:1 call

Group or
conference call

November 2013


Adds mute, earmuff, kick participants
or put them on hold.

B2B: Next-generation conference calling

“Links what
you say to
what you
do.”

How?
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Not just traditional “network services” and call control
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Multiple commercial options: Build, partner, re-sell
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New architectures expose or defer call control
Many value-added integration points (Hosting, security, etc.)
E.g. Vodafone OneNet vs Cisco UC + SingTel UCaaS

Enterprise segment tends to lead
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Long history of making money from reselling 3rd party applications and
services and supplying appropriate connectivity
Used to re-selling PBX, video conferencing + service wrapper
“OTT” – has always been that way in the enterprise world!

November 2013


WHERE NEXT?

November 2013


What is hypervoice?
Voice as 2-way audio

November 2013


Voice as
information

Problems we are solving

Voice has value at a
single instant

November 2013

Voice has value beyond
a single instant


Defining characteristics
Activity stream
Recordable
Shareable
Workflow integration
Searchable
Rich UI

Web 1.0
Hypertext

Web 2.0
Hypermessaging

Web 3.0
Hypervoice

?

November 2013


Summary

Hypervoice conversations are the
‘social’ version of telephony
and unified communications.

November 2013


To learn more…

White paper, newsletter, blog at www.hypervoice.org
MORE

November 2013


WebRTC Market
Status & Opportunities

The vision: voice & video everywhere

November 2013


Talked about for years, but hard to achieve
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Expensive
Inflexible
Poor developer support
Limited use-cases
Reliance on “call” model
Poor audio/video
Hard to integrate

= Patchy adoption & little
developer enthusiasm / buzz

November 2013


But now….

November 2013


WebRTC – what is it?



An easy way to put voice & video into web browsers…
… and also apps, and devices and more
High quality, network-intelligent (eg firewalls)
Also with “context”, realtime data & encryption
Developer-friendly & user-friendly
Excitement, buzz & “cool factor”
“Democratises” voice & video. Cheap, easy innovation
More than just a tech standard. A “movement”.

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Huge disruption potential for telcos & others

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November 2013


When?

NOW
Already being commercialised & monetised…
…before it is standardised

November 2013


Who’s involved?

& 200+ startups & 1000’s of developers
November 2013


Original 3-way support for WebRTC expanding
Enterprise

Network
tools

Devices

WebRTC
Consumer
Web

Telco

TV &
gaming
November 2013

WebRTC rapidly expanding past “calls”

November 2013


WebRTC supported on >4bn devices by 2016

Source: Disruptive Analysis WebRTC Strategy Report update November 2013
November 2013

View Oct’13: lead WebRTC use-cases
Early enterprise adoption
Live &
commercial
Initial consumer web apps/devices

Pilots / precommercial

Trials &
demos
November 2013

Verticals & corporate

Telco, Entertainment, M2M, other…

For telcos WebRTC is really a magnifier/catalyst

Now

With WebRTC
Bigger opportunities
Worse threats
Faster speed
November 2013


Main WebRTC strategies for SPs?
Extend onnet services
& IMS / SS7
Strengthen
enterprise &
verticals

TV,
entertainment &
digital
services

October 2013

Turbocharge
Telco-OTT
apps

IMS should be <30% total
WebRTC effort &
investment

Sell
packaged
WebRTC
services to
subscriber

Enhance
developer
platform

Also: invest / incubate
Improve own CRM & systems
Maybe M2M, devices etc

Policy impact of WebRTC

?
(but urgent)
November 2013


For WebRTC report & quarterly update
details see:
http://disruptivewireless.blogspot.com/p/blog-page.html

Or email information@disruptiveanalysis.com
October 2013

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2013

What next?

Which way do you want to go?

Oct 2013


Operators
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Milk the cash cow…
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Re-think credit control
More bundling with new VAS
Refine segmentation
Customers, not devices
New payment models

…and recognise and engage with
inevitable change

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

Can’t limit user behaviour
“Don’t fight demand”
Lots of opportunity so accept change

November 2013

Operators should do these five things now!
1.
2.
3.

Build off-net (TelcoOTT) service capability
Measure and manage on-net OTT voice quality
Create a value-added voice strategy
 Integrated

4.

5.

with core voice offer only where appropriate

Re-examine responsibility for voice
Engage regulator in pro-active dialogue

November 2013


Regulatory and policy considerations


This is good for consumers!
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Potential huge area for digital economy + R&D

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Will increase pressure on telcos in some cases
Protecting ‘national champion’ incumbent players may backfire

Regulation is going to get more complex

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Service innovation and competition
Treat like the rest of the web – progress & diversity is good

‘Voice’ is becoming 1000’s of apps, not just “calls”?
Revisit rules & laws to reflect new world of voice/video

Difficult issues around privacy, security, encryption

November 2013


Also available…

Workshops, Briefings, Consultancy
Dean.Bubley@disruptive-analysis.com

November 2013


New Voice Opportunities at ITU Telecom World 2013

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