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Conflict Analysis
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcbG1t_lh0
 0:01 – 1:01

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

2
Background

Stakeholders
Conflict

Aftermath
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

3
Background

Stakeholders
Conflict

Aftermath
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

4
1947 : After the second
world war and the jews
genocide, palestinian
territory was divided into
Israel and Arab state by UN
decision

1949 : first Israel-Arab war, Israel
started to occupy the south of Arab
part

1957 : Suez Canal crisis, when
Egyptian decided to nationalize the
canal in 1956
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

5
Direct Causes

Indirect Causes

 Military presence of Arab

 Non recognition of Israel state from

countries in Israel borders

 Incident West Bank, 3 Israeli

soldier killed by Al Fatah mine

 17th May of 1967 : Withdrawal of UN

“casques bleus” to Sinai, ordered
by Nasser

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

Arab countries (Egypt, Syria,
Jordan)

 Arab alliance against

“Imperialism”

 Moshe Dayan appointed defense

minister and chief of army in 1967

29.11.2013

6
 Does Israel show all the characteristics of a state?

Characteristics

Status

Defined territory

unclear

Population

unclear

Judicial system

yes

Own currency, flag

yes

International recognition

unclear

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

7
Background

Stakeholders
Conflict

Aftermath
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

8
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

9
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

10
Gamal Abdel Nasser
(* 1918 † 1970)

 Provoquer of the Six Day War
•

1958-1970 President of the
United Arab Republic and
President of Egyptian Republic

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

11
Abd al-Hakim Amer
(* 1919 † 1967)

•
•

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

1968 -1965 Vice President of
Egypt
1956–1967 Egyptian army´s
Field Marshall and Minister of
Defense

29.11.2013

12
King Hussein of Jordan
(*1935 †1999)

•

1952-1999 King of Jordan

•

Reluctant ally of Egypt

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

13
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

14
Levi Eshkol
(* 1895 † 1969)
•

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

Israel

Arab countries

•

1963-1969 Prime
Minister of Israel
1963-1967 Minister
of Defense

29.11.2013

15
Arab countries

Israel

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

Moshe Dayan
(* 1915 † 1981)
•
•

1967 -1974
Minister of
Defense
Lieutenant
General

29.11.2013

16
Arab countries

Israel

Abba Eban
(*1915 † 2002)

•
•

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

1963–1966
Deputy Prime
Minister
1966–1974
Minister of
Foreign Affairs

29.11.2013

17
Arab countries

Israel

Yitzhak Rabin
(*1922 † 1955)
•

•
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

1964 – 67 Chief of
Staff of the Israel
Defense Forces
(IDF)
1968 – 1973
Ambassador to the
U.S
29.11.2013

18
Arab countries

Israel
U.S. President Johnson: „ Israel will not
be alone, unless it decides to go alone.“

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

19
 Factors causing misperceptions

ISRAEL
Exaggeration of threats
Poor judgment of intentions, situations
Consideration of all relative information
Identity- virile or victim
Beliefs, moral authority, credibility, reputation
Deployment of arms and occupation of a
territory
 Bipolar perspective – US vs. Them
 Ideology/nationalism







Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

ARAB COUNTRIES







Overestimation of military capacity
Military optimism
Exaggeration of threats
Bipolar perspective – US vs. Them
Ideology/nationalism
Beliefs, moral authority, credibility,
reputation

29.11.2013

20
Background
Stakeholders
Conflict

Aftermath
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

21
11th Nov
1966

13rd Nov
1966

12th May
1967

25th /26th /27th

May 1967

Israel’s foreign
3 Israeli soldiers
Israeli retaliation Eviction of UN
stepped on a mine raid crossed into forces and closing minister in
patrolling along the West Bank to strike of Israel’s Southern Washington
border between
into an al-Fatah
port Eilat by Nasser questioning the US
position in case of
Israel and West
stronghold
Wrong pretext
an war outbreak
Bank (then under BUT: Jordanian
supplied by
and the Egyptian
Jordanian control) soldiers that wasn’t
Soviets: Report of “operation Dawn”
supposed to be
Mine planted by
an Israeli plan to
plans for the 27th
there crossed
the al-Fatah
invade Syria and to
Israeli paths and capture Damascus Hotline message
organization of
between Johnson
shots were
Yasser Arafat
and Soviet Premier
exchanged
Kosygin
14 killed Jordanians
Operation
and riots in Jordan
canceled
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

30th June
1967
Jordan signs a
mutual defense
treaty with Egypt
Israel calls upon
Jordan numerous
times to refrain
from hostilities.

1st June
1967
Jordanian Army
under command of
Egyptian General
Riad

29.11.2tepped 013

22
5th June
Operation Focus
(Mivtza Moked)
was launched at
7:45 am Israeli
time.

Israel Air Force
(IAF) jets attack
and destroy the air
forces of Egypt,
Syria and Jordan.

Israel sends a
message to Jordan’s
leader King Hussein
via the US State
Department, the UN
and the British
Foreign Office, saying
that, despite the
outbreak of war, it
would not attack the
West Bank if Jordan
maintained quiet on
that front.

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

King Hussein
Emboldened by
received false
this information,
information from
Jordan launched
Egypt denying
immediate multiple
Egyptian losses
attacks on Israel
and claiming a
massive and
successful Egyptian
attack against
Israel.

29.11.2013

23
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9CJowfomT0

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

24
5th June

6th June

Operation Focus
(Mivtza Moked)
was launched at
7:45 am Israeli
time.

IAF was used
against Egyptian,
Jordanian, Syrian,
and Iraqi ground
forces.

No reaction of
Isreal on
Jordanians
opening fire in
Jerusalem.
Misleading
information of
General Riad
about destroyed
Isreali airforce.

7th June

8th June

9th June

Israel completed Battle of the Golan
the capture of the Heights
Sinai by sending Syria announceds
infantry units to
its acceptance of
Ras Sudar on the the cease-fire
western coast of
Despite this, four
the peninsula
hours later at 7
am, Israeli
Defense Minister
Moshe Dayan
Israeli paratroopers
"gives the order
in the Old City
to go into action
By the end of the
against Syria”
third day Jordanian
IAF destroyed
hundreds of
Egyptian vehicles
trying to flee and
trapped thousands
more in narrow
Sinai passes..
Israeli forces
entering West Bank

military no longer
in the fight.

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

10th June
In some locations,
Israeli troops
advanced after an
agreed-upon
cease-fire to
occupy
strategically strong
positions
Fighting is over.
Israel had complete
air superiority over
Israel, the Golan
Heights, the West
Bank, and the entire
Sinai desert.
29.11.2013

25
Israel
776–983 killed
4,517 wounded
15 captured
------400 tanks
destroyed
46 aircraft
destroyed

Arab
Countries
10,000 – 15,000 killed or missing
4,338 captured

6,000 killed or missing
533 captured

2,500 killed
591 captured

hundreds
of tanks
destroyed
452+
aircraft
destroyed

10 killed
30 wounded
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

26
 Realism
 The state is the dominant actor
 Power maximization (homo politicus, material gains)
 Recognize non-state actors but view them as unable to compete with the state
 International institutions and law = state creation and work for state interests

 Constructivism
 The state is the central actor but not always rational (also based on emotions)
 Homo symbolicus = interests are determined by identity, ideology, cultural links or

recognition
 For constructivists, material goods (disarmament) can be symbolic

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

27
 Levels of the Conflict
 International: cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union
 Regional: between progressive and conservative Arab regimes
 Bilateral: intractable Arab-Israeli conflict (perennial source of instability throughout the

region).
 Religious: entering the Old City of Jerusalem complicating relationship with Catholic
countries as well as deteriote the relationship with Muslim countries
 Power in International Relations
 Eshkol promoting soft power
 Military (Amer, Dayan, Rabin, etc.) promoting hard power

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

28
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

29
Background and Pretext

Stakeholders
Conflict

Aftermath
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

30
 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UKuxPyrpx0
 40:37 -end

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

31
UN 242 Resolution

Khartoum Resolution, “The Three No resolution"

 Required the withdrawal of

 No peace with Israel

israeli forces in occupied
territories

 "Termination of all claims

 No recognition of Israel
 No negociation with Israel

or states of belligerency
and respect for and
acknowledgment of the
sovereignty, territorial
integrity and political
independence of every
State in the area and their
right to live in peace within
secure and recognized
boundaries free from
threats or acts of force."
Faisal of Saudi Arabia, Nasser of Egypt, Sallal of Yemen,
Sabah of Kuwait and Arif of Iraq, the 29th August 1967

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

32
Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

33
34

Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH

29.11.2013

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The 6 Days War 1967

  • 1. Conflict Analysis Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH
  • 2.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BLcbG1t_lh0  0:01 – 1:01 Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 2
  • 5. 1947 : After the second world war and the jews genocide, palestinian territory was divided into Israel and Arab state by UN decision 1949 : first Israel-Arab war, Israel started to occupy the south of Arab part 1957 : Suez Canal crisis, when Egyptian decided to nationalize the canal in 1956 Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 5
  • 6. Direct Causes Indirect Causes  Military presence of Arab  Non recognition of Israel state from countries in Israel borders  Incident West Bank, 3 Israeli soldier killed by Al Fatah mine  17th May of 1967 : Withdrawal of UN “casques bleus” to Sinai, ordered by Nasser Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH Arab countries (Egypt, Syria, Jordan)  Arab alliance against “Imperialism”  Moshe Dayan appointed defense minister and chief of army in 1967 29.11.2013 6
  • 7.  Does Israel show all the characteristics of a state? Characteristics Status Defined territory unclear Population unclear Judicial system yes Own currency, flag yes International recognition unclear Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 7
  • 9. Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 9
  • 10. Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 10
  • 11. Gamal Abdel Nasser (* 1918 † 1970)  Provoquer of the Six Day War • 1958-1970 President of the United Arab Republic and President of Egyptian Republic Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 11
  • 12. Abd al-Hakim Amer (* 1919 † 1967) • • Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 1968 -1965 Vice President of Egypt 1956–1967 Egyptian army´s Field Marshall and Minister of Defense 29.11.2013 12
  • 13. King Hussein of Jordan (*1935 †1999) • 1952-1999 King of Jordan • Reluctant ally of Egypt Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 13
  • 14. Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 14
  • 15. Levi Eshkol (* 1895 † 1969) • Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH Israel Arab countries • 1963-1969 Prime Minister of Israel 1963-1967 Minister of Defense 29.11.2013 15
  • 16. Arab countries Israel Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH Moshe Dayan (* 1915 † 1981) • • 1967 -1974 Minister of Defense Lieutenant General 29.11.2013 16
  • 17. Arab countries Israel Abba Eban (*1915 † 2002) • • Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 1963–1966 Deputy Prime Minister 1966–1974 Minister of Foreign Affairs 29.11.2013 17
  • 18. Arab countries Israel Yitzhak Rabin (*1922 † 1955) • • Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 1964 – 67 Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) 1968 – 1973 Ambassador to the U.S 29.11.2013 18
  • 19. Arab countries Israel U.S. President Johnson: „ Israel will not be alone, unless it decides to go alone.“ Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 19
  • 20.  Factors causing misperceptions ISRAEL Exaggeration of threats Poor judgment of intentions, situations Consideration of all relative information Identity- virile or victim Beliefs, moral authority, credibility, reputation Deployment of arms and occupation of a territory  Bipolar perspective – US vs. Them  Ideology/nationalism       Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH ARAB COUNTRIES       Overestimation of military capacity Military optimism Exaggeration of threats Bipolar perspective – US vs. Them Ideology/nationalism Beliefs, moral authority, credibility, reputation 29.11.2013 20
  • 22. 11th Nov 1966 13rd Nov 1966 12th May 1967 25th /26th /27th May 1967 Israel’s foreign 3 Israeli soldiers Israeli retaliation Eviction of UN stepped on a mine raid crossed into forces and closing minister in patrolling along the West Bank to strike of Israel’s Southern Washington border between into an al-Fatah port Eilat by Nasser questioning the US position in case of Israel and West stronghold Wrong pretext an war outbreak Bank (then under BUT: Jordanian supplied by and the Egyptian Jordanian control) soldiers that wasn’t Soviets: Report of “operation Dawn” supposed to be Mine planted by an Israeli plan to plans for the 27th there crossed the al-Fatah invade Syria and to Israeli paths and capture Damascus Hotline message organization of between Johnson shots were Yasser Arafat and Soviet Premier exchanged Kosygin 14 killed Jordanians Operation and riots in Jordan canceled Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 30th June 1967 Jordan signs a mutual defense treaty with Egypt Israel calls upon Jordan numerous times to refrain from hostilities. 1st June 1967 Jordanian Army under command of Egyptian General Riad 29.11.2tepped 013 22
  • 23. 5th June Operation Focus (Mivtza Moked) was launched at 7:45 am Israeli time. Israel Air Force (IAF) jets attack and destroy the air forces of Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Israel sends a message to Jordan’s leader King Hussein via the US State Department, the UN and the British Foreign Office, saying that, despite the outbreak of war, it would not attack the West Bank if Jordan maintained quiet on that front. Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH King Hussein Emboldened by received false this information, information from Jordan launched Egypt denying immediate multiple Egyptian losses attacks on Israel and claiming a massive and successful Egyptian attack against Israel. 29.11.2013 23
  • 24.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9CJowfomT0 Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 24
  • 25. 5th June 6th June Operation Focus (Mivtza Moked) was launched at 7:45 am Israeli time. IAF was used against Egyptian, Jordanian, Syrian, and Iraqi ground forces. No reaction of Isreal on Jordanians opening fire in Jerusalem. Misleading information of General Riad about destroyed Isreali airforce. 7th June 8th June 9th June Israel completed Battle of the Golan the capture of the Heights Sinai by sending Syria announceds infantry units to its acceptance of Ras Sudar on the the cease-fire western coast of Despite this, four the peninsula hours later at 7 am, Israeli Defense Minister Moshe Dayan Israeli paratroopers "gives the order in the Old City to go into action By the end of the against Syria” third day Jordanian IAF destroyed hundreds of Egyptian vehicles trying to flee and trapped thousands more in narrow Sinai passes.. Israeli forces entering West Bank military no longer in the fight. Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 10th June In some locations, Israeli troops advanced after an agreed-upon cease-fire to occupy strategically strong positions Fighting is over. Israel had complete air superiority over Israel, the Golan Heights, the West Bank, and the entire Sinai desert. 29.11.2013 25
  • 26. Israel 776–983 killed 4,517 wounded 15 captured ------400 tanks destroyed 46 aircraft destroyed Arab Countries 10,000 – 15,000 killed or missing 4,338 captured 6,000 killed or missing 533 captured 2,500 killed 591 captured hundreds of tanks destroyed 452+ aircraft destroyed 10 killed 30 wounded Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 26
  • 27.  Realism  The state is the dominant actor  Power maximization (homo politicus, material gains)  Recognize non-state actors but view them as unable to compete with the state  International institutions and law = state creation and work for state interests  Constructivism  The state is the central actor but not always rational (also based on emotions)  Homo symbolicus = interests are determined by identity, ideology, cultural links or recognition  For constructivists, material goods (disarmament) can be symbolic Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 27
  • 28.  Levels of the Conflict  International: cold war between the United States and the Soviet Union  Regional: between progressive and conservative Arab regimes  Bilateral: intractable Arab-Israeli conflict (perennial source of instability throughout the region).  Religious: entering the Old City of Jerusalem complicating relationship with Catholic countries as well as deteriote the relationship with Muslim countries  Power in International Relations  Eshkol promoting soft power  Military (Amer, Dayan, Rabin, etc.) promoting hard power Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 28
  • 29. Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 29
  • 30. Background and Pretext Stakeholders Conflict Aftermath Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 30
  • 31.  http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UKuxPyrpx0  40:37 -end Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 31
  • 32. UN 242 Resolution Khartoum Resolution, “The Three No resolution"  Required the withdrawal of  No peace with Israel israeli forces in occupied territories  "Termination of all claims  No recognition of Israel  No negociation with Israel or states of belligerency and respect for and acknowledgment of the sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of every State in the area and their right to live in peace within secure and recognized boundaries free from threats or acts of force." Faisal of Saudi Arabia, Nasser of Egypt, Sallal of Yemen, Sabah of Kuwait and Arif of Iraq, the 29th August 1967 Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 32
  • 33. Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013 33
  • 34. 34 Mathilde BERTRAND, Margareta HEIDT, Kerstin KNOBLOCH 29.11.2013