Michael P Totten GreenATP: APPortunities to catalyze local to global positive tipping points through collaborative innovation networks

Advanced Review

GreenATP: APPortunities to
catalyze local to global positive
tipping points through
collaborative innovation networks
Michael P. Totten∗

Humanity’s unceasing ingenuity is generating vast economic gain for billions
of people with goods unavailable to even kings and queens throughout most of
history. Unfortunately, this economic growth has triggered unprecedented se-
curity challenges of global and historical magnitude: more absolute poor than
any time in human history, the sixth largest extinction spasm of life on earth,
climate destabilization with mega-catastrophic consequences, and multi-trillion
dollar wars over access to energy. These multiple, inextricably interwoven chal-
lenges have low probability of being solved if decision makers maintain the strong
propensity to think and act as if life is linear, has no carrying capacity limits,
uncertainty is controllable, the future free of surprises, planning is predictable
and compartmentalized into silos, and Gaussian distributions are taken as the
norm while fat-tail futures are ignored. Although the future holds irreducible
uncertainties, it is not fated. The emergence of Internet availability to one-third
of humanity and access by most of humanity within a decade has spawned the
Web analogue of a ‘Cambrian explosion’ of speciation in knowledge applica-
tions. Among the most prodigious have been collaboration innovation networks
(COINs) reflecting a diversity of ‘genome’ types, facilitating a myriad of collective
intelligence crowd-swarming phenomena (Malone T, Laubacher R, Dellarocas C.
The Collective Intelligence Genome. MIT Sloan Management Review, Spring; 2010,
Vol. 51). COINs are essential tools for accelerating and scaling transformational
solutions (positive tipping points) to the wicked problems confronting humanity.
Web COINs enable acceleration of multiple-benefit innovations and solutions to
these problems that permeate the nested clusters of linked nonlinear complex
adaptive systems comprising the global biosphere and socioeconomy [Raford N.
How to build a collective intelligence platform to crowdsource almost anything.
Available at: http:news.noahraford.com. (Accessed November 30, 2011)]. The Web
initiative, GreenATP, illustrates this opportunity. C 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

How to cite this article:
WIREs Energy Environ 2012, 1: 98–113 doi: 10.1002/wene.40

COLLABORATION INNOVATION dramatically. The average infant can expect to sur-
NETWORKS vive 66 years, compared with 24 years in the year
1000, with one out of three dying in the first year of
O ver the past millennium, global population in-
creased 22-fold, world gross domestic product
(GDP) rose nearly 300-fold, and per capita income
life. Per capita growth has also been accelerating ex-
ponentially, with declining time intervals that it takes
for a doubling of per capita global GDP.4
increased 13-fold.1–3 Life expectation also improved
This phenomenal rise in wealth and well-being
has occurred for a number of factors (e.g., the scien-
∗
Correspondence to: mtotten@conservation.org tific method, advancements in knowledge, improved
Conservation International, Singapore, Singapore hygiene and sanitary conditions, and evolving inno-
DOI: 10.1002/wene.40 vations in engineering and technology), with access to

98 c 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Volume 1, July/August 2012

WIREs Energy and Environment APPortunities to catalyze tipping points through COINs

cheap energy being a primary driver this past century. the Web, however, there is amplifying recognition
Cheap energy, in turn, made access to water and re- that a powerful communication revolution is emer-
sources cheaper, resulting in an eightfold increase in gent. Over the past decade, the exponential growth
global materials use during the 20th century. This of Web networks enabling social collaboration has
historical growth pattern, coupled with a determin- spawned powerful new ways to engage a global cit-
istic view of continuous technology advances, lead izenry at a heretofore unprecedented level of ongo-
most economists to assume global average annual per ing breadth, depth, and diversity of arrangements
capita growth rates of 2–3% in the 21st century. This and cooperative initiatives. The Web’s many-to-many
implies a nearly 10- to 20-fold increase in world GDP. communication, sharing, producing, and collaborat-
Earth scientists, however, are far less sanguine, given ing offer a potent opportunity for harnessing peo-
the accumulation of observations, measurements, ev- ple’s ‘cognitive surplus’—‘the shared, online work we
idence, and findings that indicate serious instabilities do with our spare brain cycles for building a bet-
throughout the biosphere, posing cataclysmic threats ter, more cooperative world.’6 GreenATP is used to
to undermine, disrupt, and collapse humanity’s vul- illustrate the power of self-organizing collaboration
nerable socioeconomic systems. It is abundantly clear innovation networks (COINs) for catalyzing swarms
from the multitude of earth systems and socioecologi- of ‘greening’a activity in localities worldwide.
cal scientific assessments that the traditional ‘wisdom’
in solving complex problems through orderly, linear
modeling is perilously inadequate. We confront a bas- UNPRECEDENTED CHALLENGES OF
ket of wicked problems, ill-defined problem sets that
GLOBAL AND HISTORICAL
are too complex to be solved by rational systematic
processes.5
MAGNITUDE
The overwhelming scale and complexity of these The accumulating evidence derived from a wide range
unparalleled perils is stupefying and paralyze most of transdisciplinary research on the earth’s physical
citizens from taking action, resigned to pessimism, climate and biogeochemical systems, including ex-
willful blindness, or fatalism. Such attitudes are pre- tensive interdisciplinary supercomputer modeling, the
mature, albeit understandable given well-funded en- mathematical study of nested clusters of interacting
trenched interests aggressively blocking action by dynamic nonlinear complex adaptive systems, and
distorting facts. As Body Shop founder Anita Rod- paleoscience discoveries in climatology, ecology, and
dick put it, ‘If you think you’re too small to make marine geochemistry, starkly show that business-as-
an impact, try going to bed with a mosquito in usual global economic growth is transgressing plan-
the room.’ The past half-century has been witness etary boundaries in the terrestrial, atmospheric, and
to an explosion of knowledge generation, technical oceanic spheres. Humanity is spiraling into a future of
advances, and accumulated evidence from applied more frequent and severe local, regional, and global
innovations in markets and governance that offer disasters of increasingly ‘biblical’ proportions, e.g.,
promising prospects for addressing these seemingly 100- and 500-year flood and drought episodes occur-
intractable perils. ring in a period of several years (Figure 1).7
Although there does not appear to be any intrin-
sic technological, economic, or financial impossibil-
ity in transforming humanity’s unfolding nightmare Sixth Largest Species Extinction Spasm
into a healthy, sustainable future, harnessing human Biologists and ecologists have been sounding alarms
willpower and overcoming entrenched interests have over the last quarter century of an unfolding extinc-
always been the Achilles’ heels of such change. There tion spasm of planetary dimensions, due to human-
is grossly insufficient leadership in society’s major in- ity’s liquidation of intact ecosystems and assemblages
stitutions, be it governments, religions, businesses, of flora and fauna occurring in the wake of converting
and academia. This has had a corrosive effect on nation-size landscapes for food, feed, fiber, forestry,
citizen confidence in believing anything positive will fuel, and other commodities. Extinction of species in-
occur from sclerotic-like centralized bureaucracies. evitably occurs over geological time spans, with some
When sudden crises too large to ignore demand public 99.9% of all life having gone extinct since life first
action (e.g., Hurricane Katrina hitting New Orleans), formed 3.85 billion years ago. What is different about
all too frequently the actions taken are done with- the current human-triggered planetary mass extinc-
out foresight or common sense, let alone designed for tion is the phenomenal rate, estimated to be three to
achieving multiple-benefit outcomes. The result tends four orders of magnitude higher than the average nat-
to be enormous, lost opportunities. With the rise of ural background rate. As detailed in the multi-volume

Volume 1, July/August 2012 c 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 99

Advanced Review wires.wiley.com/wene

F I G U R E 1 | A safe operating space for
humanity. Estimates of how the different
control variables for seven planetary
boundaries have changed from 1950 to
present. The green shaded polygon represents
the safe operating space. (Reprinted with
permission from Ref 7. Copyright 2009,
Macmillan Publishers Limited.)

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment8 and the more re- oil, coal, natural gas, and cement production.17 An
cent The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity9 additional 15–20% (5–6.6 Gt CO2 e) are estimated
and Principles for Responsible Investment10 reports, from deforestation, nearly 12 Gt CO2 e from non-
the wholesale destruction of worldwide ecosystem CO2 GHGs,18 and potentially 1 Gt CO2 e of methane
services, the planet’s natural capital, is destroying emissions from hydro damsc .19
some 5 trillion dollars per year of assets and economic Scientists recently calculated that the net present
value. This is a conservative estimate, given that just value of climate change impacts from business-as-
1% of the planet’s species have been studied, many usual is $1240 trillion, assuming stabilization of at-
holding potentially immense future value generated mospheric concentrations of CO2 e below 850 ppm
by the 21st century’s exponentially growing bioinfor- by 2100.20 In reality, society is not only on pace to
matics sector and biotechnology industry, and will be exceed 850 ppm, but new evidence also indicates far
irretrievably lost before science discovers them. greater climate sensitivity at much lower levels previ-
ously thought ‘safe’ (∼450 ppm).
Ecosystem Services Irreversible Losses Three recent global modeling assessments in-
With the world adding the population size of the dicate that the planet faces a 5–7◦ C increase in
United Kingdom every year, the projected 10 billion global average temperature this century—a drasti-
population by 2050 will require a 70% increase in cally large and rapid change unprecedented in the
food production. Along with the increased energy history of Homo sapiens.21–23 Implications include
and materials feeding humanity’s rising economic desertification of roughly a quarter of global agri-
‘metabolism’, the continued loss of ecosystem services cultural lands (half in Africa),24 as well as resulting
and natural capital is estimated to cost nearly 20% of in largely irreversible changes in global ecosystems
annual Gross World Product by 2050.10 Expanding for 1000 years after emissions stop.25 An estimated
environmental degradation and ecosystem collapses two-thirds of the world plant and animals species
are being recognized as monumental threats to human could be driven to extinction, especially when com-
security,11,12 with evidence of or correlations between pounded by humanity annually burning down and
loss of ecosystem services and piracy, land conflicts clearing tropical forests and ecosystems the size of
and resource wars, ethnic cleansing, and genocidal England.
crimes (e.g., Rwanda13 and Darfur14 ).15,16 Nor is this the worst of all possibilities. Other
recent scientific research indicates that atmospheric
CO2 e emissions under business-as-usual carbon-
Climate Destabilization and intensive economic growth could trigger disastrous
Mega-Catastrophic Consequences ‘tipping points’, releasing vast storehouses of the
In 2010, global CO2 emissions exceeded the worst earth’s carbon stocks into the atmosphere. Nearly a
case scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Cli- dozen negative tipping points have been identified,d
mate Change, with 33 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent ranging from the melting of the permafrost and re-
(CO2 e)b of greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted from lease of massive amounts of the potent GHG methane,



to the dieback of the Amazon rainforest or boreal for-
est. Each of these could increase the global average
temperature by 3–5◦ C.26
Recent studies indicate critical aspects of ecosys-
tem functioning beginning to collapse at 2.5◦ C, with
the loss of major ice sheets, the collapse of the Amazon
rain forest, extinction of coral reefs, and large-scale
release of methane from deep-sea deposits and tun-
dra could occur at temperatures as low as 2–4◦ C of
warming. The threshold temperature for irreversible F I G U R E 2 | Internet users in the world—distribution by world
dieback of the Amazon rain forest could be as low regions, 2011. (Source: Internet World Stats—www.internetworldstats
as 2◦ C, rather than the more commonly cited 3– .com/stats.htm. Basis: 2,095,00,005 Internet users on March 31, 2011.
Copyright 2011, Miniwatts Marketing Group.)
4◦ C.27 A 2005 Amazon drought was estimated to
have caused the loss of 1.6 Gt of carbon in that single
year.28 Multi-Trillion Dollar Resource Wars
and Genocidal Acts
Climate change, marine acidification, and species ex-
Ocean Acidification Threat to Fisheries tinctions are, in a sense, indirect human-triggered un-
Collapse intended consequences or externalities that, if con-
The oceans face multiple extreme risks. Recent ma- tinued over the long term, will spark collapses in
rine evidence has found that over the past half-century socio-economic systems around the world.36 Cur-
phytoplankton, the base of the ocean food web has de- rently and for the past century, have also been direct
clined 40%, corresponding with a 0.5◦ C global tem- human-triggered devastations from war and conflicts
perature increase over the past century.29 In addition, over access to oil, minerals, and land; genocidal acts
humanity’s annual 30 + gigaton pulse of CO2 emis- have occurred on average every five years over the
sions is accelerating the rate of ocean acidification past half century, many triggered over control of nat-
faster than any time during the last 300 million years. ural resources.37 The price tag for the first oil war
Marine scientists warn that the failure to peak global of the 21st century instigated by the United States
CO2 emissions by 2015 and then steadily reduce these invasion of Afghanistan and Iraq is estimated at $6
emissions by 5% per annum could, by the end of trillion.38,39 The 2002 US national security strategy
the century, cause acidification levels that essentially mentioned neither oil nor the Gulf, but the 1992 draft
unravel the ocean ecosystem and collapse major fish- of Defense Planning Guidance for the Fiscal Years
eries and marine species.30 Only 1% of marine fishery 1994–1999 clearly stated America’s ‘overall objec-
catch revenues are not influenced by changes in ocean tive’ in the Gulf: ‘to remain the predominant outside
pH.31,32 power in the region and preserve US and Western ac-
Climate change and marine acidification risks cess to the region’s oil.’ Large US military bases now
are compounding humanity’s already massive over- cover the region.
fishing, depletion, and collapse of major fisheries.33
Worldwide, approximately 1 billion people are de-
pendent on fish as the principal source of animal pro-
WEB COINs CATALYZING
tein and half a billion people depend on fisheries and
aquaculture for their livelihoods; the vast majority of
MULTIPLE-BENEFIT VALUE NETS
them live in developing countries. Coral reef-related Less than 7000 days ago, the World Wide Web
fisheries constitute approximately one-tenth of the was virtually nonexistent, then it exploded, growing
world’s total fisheries, and in some parts of the Indo- nearly 500% between 2000 and 2010, with one out of
Pacific region up to 25% of the total fish catch, while three people now having Internet access (see Figure 2).
also representing the breeding, nursing, and feeding ‘The World Wide Web was developed to be a pool of
grounds for one-fourth of marine fisheries. One-third human knowledge, and human culture, which would
of all coral species are already at risk of extinction allow collaborators in remote sites to share their ideas
as a result of bleaching and disease caused by ocean and all aspects of a common project.’40
warming in recent years.34 In terms of catastrophic Information technology (IT) experts anticipate
risk, acidification interacts with the temperature stress it will take less than 5000 days before most of hu-
on coral reefs; with 1.7◦ C warming, all coral reefs will manity will be connected globally to a ubiquitous
be bleached, and by 2.5◦ C they will be extinct.35 semantic Web network. The emergent phenomenon



New media Professor Shirky6 makes a com-
pelling case that there are more than 1 trillion hours
of television viewed each year, representing a pool of
‘cognitive surplus’ that could be harnessed to create
other open source public collaboration assets. There
are now legions of examples underway. For example,
in the span of just 48 months, YouTube went from
a start-up to experiencing 48 h of video uploaded ev-
ery minute, resulting in nearly 8 years of content up-
loaded every day. Over 3 billion videos are viewed
a day through YouTube, with users uploading the
equivalent of 240,000 full-length films every week.
There is more video uploaded to YouTube in 1 month
than the three major US networks created in 60 years.
Seventy percent of YouTube traffic comes from out-
F I G U R E 3 | Size of English Wikipedia as of August 2010 (2647 side the United States, and is localized in 25 countries
Encyclopedia Britannica volumes). (Source: Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia across 43 languages. YouTube mobile gets over 400
.org/wiki/File:Size_of_English_Wikipedia_in_August_2010.svg.) million views a day, representing 13% of daily views.
One hundred million people take a social action on
YouTube (likes, shares, comments, etc.) every week,
of new value creation and social engagement oppor- and more than 50% of videos on YouTube have been
tunities occurring through self-organizing web col- rated or include comments from the community.47
laboration networks are being examined in countless Flickr, the image and video sharing site, rose
publications.41–45 from a 2004 start-up to hosting 6 billion images in just
Although this powerful knowledge-generating 7 years. In 7 years since start-up, Facebook now hosts
and communication network can be and is being used 800 million active users, including 42% percent of the
for viral spread of disinformation, propaganda, prej- US public, and 1 billion pieces of content being loaded
udices, hatred, fallacies, scams, endless advertising each day. China has more than half a billion registered
for click-and-ship consumerism, gambling, pornog- microbloggers, and nearly 700 million mobile phone
raphy, sexual predation, and a broad range of de- users, with a rapid rise in smart web phones. These
viant behaviors, it is also emerging as an especially examples and scores of other social networks with
potent system of social cooperation. Witness the self- millions of users provide overwhelming evidence of
organizing open source initiatives, as evidenced by the the growth of citizen engagement in web networks.
breathtaking formation of Wikipedia, daily growing It was a phenomena the public-at-large hardly envi-
and error correcting the world’s largest publicly ac- sioned even 15 years ago; or as Bill Gates notoriously
cessible pool of accumulated knowledge and learning said in 1993, ‘The Internet? We are not interested
resources. in it.’
In the decade since it was launched, Wikipedia Collaboration innovation and knowledge-
has swiftly established itself as the world’s largest sharing networks are beginning to permeate global
encyclopedia. Within 60 months and six employees, society, speciating throughout business sectors, ed-
Wikipedia grew to 10 times the size of the largest en- ucation systems, science research initiatives, avoca-
cyclopedia. As of August 2010, the size of just the En- tions, advocacy issues, media and news services, gov-
glish version of Wikipedia amounted to nearly 2700 ernment and public agencies at all scales, and a
volumes the size of the Encyclopedia Britannica. This long tail of citizen-initiated interest groups. Ongo-
phenomenal growth has been accomplished with rel- ing research in evolutionary game theory and the
atively few paid employees (still less than 100). Daily dynamics of complex adaptive systems derive some
additions, updates, edits, and error corrections are encouraging findings regarding social cooperation.48
carried out by several hundred thousand volunteers, As Professor Nowak, Director of Harvard’s Program
with content being translated into several hundred for Evolutionary Dynamics, noted, humanity has the
languages. An IBM research team estimated that it sad capacity to destroy the planet’s climate, with a
took around 100 million hours to self-organize and number of our current practices and policies eerily
maintain this open source public knowledge asset. For geared to meet this outcome as quickly as possible.49
comparison, Americans watch 100 million hours of Preserving the earth’s climate is the biggest public
television ads every weekend (Figure 3).46 goods game ever, and research indicates the ability of



people to solve what game theorists call a ‘collective
risk social dilemma.’50 The key insights are straight-
forward, even if the tasks are daunting: individuals
must be well informed about climate change risk;
if misled, then individuals falsely conclude the risk
is small and will not cooperate; and if individuals
know that the risk is high, then they are likely to
cooperate.
These dynamics are evident in the United States
where the media neglects and distorts reporting on
climate risks and costs. The vast realm of science and
the environment, of which climate is a tiny subset,
barely gets reported in the media; according to the
Pew Research Center for People and the Press, US
media coverage on science or the environment is cov- F I G U R E 4 | Trust network visualization. (Reprinted with
ered just 4 min out of every 10 h of viewing time. By permission from Ref 59. Copyright 2004, Springer-Verlag.)
comparison, celebrity coverage gets five times more
attention, crime 15 times more exposure, and adver-
tising captures 45-fold more screening time than all There are approaches to derive assessments
science. Most egregious is the media informational about information sources based on individual feed-
bias as a result of conjuring up two sides of an is- back about the sources. As users add annotations,
sue, even when the peer-reviewed science on, e.g., the they can include measures of credibility and relia-
threat of dangerous and catastrophic consequences bility about a statement, which are later averaged
of climate-triggered disasters shows virtually unani- and presented to the viewer. There is burgeoning ac-
mous consensus. The deplorable media coverage has tivity in the IT research field, social network space,
been skewed further with a disinformation campaign and commercial applications around the array of rec-
funded through the largesse of the fossil fuel industry ommendation engines, collaborative filters, informa-
to foster public confusion and false conclusions about tion confidence, and trust metrics provided for and
climate risks and mitigation costs. In 2009–2010, the by users, as evidenced, e.g., in commercial sites like
US oil, coal, and utility industries collectively spent eBay, epinions, Amazon.com and, to a certain extent,
$500 million to lobby against climate change legisla- the PageRank search algorithms used by Google.58
tion and to defeat candidates calling for climate miti- The machine-readable intelligence agents integral to
gation action.51 the semantic web are expected to radically improve
Notwithstanding episodes of herd mentality, the trust process, including reputation inference algo-
group think,52 irrational exuberances,53 and mis- rithms, Trustbots, semantic reputation networks, etc.
guided certitudes that will be propagated through (Figure 4).59
web sharing networks, web-based cooperation net- So, how does this relate to tackling the multiple
works relying on empirical, evidence-based, and accu- wicked problems previously discussed? Essentially by
mulated experience, shared in as transparent a man- leveraging the power of self-organizing, small-world
ner as possible, can hopefully serve as trustworthy networks of cooperation and collaboration among
checks and balances. Adaptive and interactive net- willing citizens to apply some of their ‘cognitive sur-
work dynamics (i.e., continuous user feedback and plus’ toward addressing and solving these wicked
further input), using specific mechanisms for the evo- problems at the local scale.
lution of cooperation48 (i.e., direct reciprocity, indi- Not surprisingly, research finds that the higher
rect reciprocity, spatial reciprocity, reputation and consumption lifestyle of the world’s urban popula-
trust through kin and group selection)54 can be inte- tion, while directly occupying a small fraction of
grated into web collaboration designs and processes. the earth’s surface, is the primary driver of global
Cooperation increases when combined with networks deforestation, GHG emissions, ocean acidification,
of social diversity,55 and generally in small-world net- and many of the other major environmental impacts
work phenomenon combining a dense array of lo- on the planet. Agricultural trade is the other pri-
cal contacts and a good enough number of long- mary driver, most of it driven by urban consumption
range ‘weak-link’ contacts, enabling innovation to patterns, as well.60 Urban population increased 10-
flourish.56,57 fold in the 20th century to 2.8 billion people. This



F I G U R E 5 | The emergence of VERGE. (Reprinted
with permission from Ref 66. Copyright 2011,
GreenBiz.com.)

number will nearly double to 5 billion by 2030. In currency of the cell. The cell’s supply of ATP is mostly
Africa and Asia, the accumulated urban growth of generated in mitochondria, sometimes described as
these two regions during their whole span of history ‘cellular power plants.’ To greatly simplify, the emer-
will be duplicated in a single generation. By 2030, gence of multicellular complex life forms was enabled
developing world towns and cities will comprise four to a large degree by the symbiogenesis of anaerobic
out of five global urban dwellers.61 archebacteria and O2 respiring proteobacteria; it was
There are three key actions that can be taken the key evolutionary innovation toward eukaryotic
for accommodating projected growth while dimin- genome and cellular organization.64
ishing planetary impacts: (1) Shrinking energy, wa- In analogous manner, the symbiogenesis of
ter, and resource use through continuous, aggres- Internet and green Technology (IT and green T)
sive, ambitious efficiency gains; (2) Shifting to green offer the potential emergence of transformational
power and fuels having the smallest composite foot- positive tipping points with multiple-benefits capable
print of impacts (e.g., GHG emissions, air and of resolving or dramatically reducing wicked socio-
water pollution, toxic wastes, hazardous contami- ecological problems. A paradigmatic example getting
nants, land requirements, water use, displacing valu- intensive analysis and research and development
able ecosystem services, vulnerability to price volatil- funding from the public and private sectors is the con-
ity and supply disruptions, vulnerability to extreme vergence of entirely separate sectors through ‘smart’
disruption by nature, military or terrorists, fail grace- IT connectivity and green T design innovations; or as
fully, not catastrophically, and offering a least-cost, recently stated in Reinventing Fire, ‘pervading the en-
least-risk, highly resilient way of delivering services ergy system with distributed intelligence, ubiquitous
at the point of use)62,63 ; and (3) Sourcing standards- sensors, and current information, IT-enriched en-
based, multiple-benefits carbon mitigation offsets for ergy will choreograph the convergence between
footprints still remaining, with emphasis on con- vehicles, buildings, factories, and electricity
servation and restoration of threatened ecosystem sources.’65 It will, as US Federal Energy Regulatory
services as a very cost-effective way. This triple S Chairman Jon Wellinghoff describes, ‘transform
portfolio of actions is the focus of the GreenATP every individual energy using device from a stand-
COIN. alone single purpose entity into a multipurpose in-
terconnected grid asset that will ultimately optimize
the efficiency of the entire energy system.’ ‘It is,’ he
added, ‘a revolution that is coming and it will change
GREENATP—APPORTUNITIES AND
everything.’ (Figure 5).66
POSITIVE TIPPING POINTS Metaphorically, greenATP symbolizes the infor-
Biochemically, adenosine triphosphate (ATP) is a mation currency flowing through self-organizing and
complex nanomachine serving as the primary energy maintained cooperation and COINs, with a focus



on how urban and rural landscapes can achieve capital intensive. . .The product cycles—the amount
zero emission targets and zero net footprint impact of time it takes to go from concept to market—
transition goals through continuous application of the is years longer than most IT products and services.
triple S portfolio of actions. It is meant as a mnemonic, And their lifecycle—their time in productive use—
meme, or iconic brand for positive transformation can range from a decade (for a car) to a century (for
into healthy, sustainable economies. As an acronym, a building). Because they are infrastructural, expen-
greenATP stands for ’green APPportunities and posi- sive, and long lasting, their convergence, while slower
tive tipping points,’ reflecting reliance on the suite of in coming, will potentially transform how we live,
web software tools, applications, resources, and an- work, shop, travel, and play.’67 The pace of con-
alytics used in small-world networks. Using a diver- vergence innovation can either be further retarded
sity of apps, collective intelligence algorithms, web or accelerated, depending on how slowly or quickly
mashups, and eventually semantic ‘meshnets’e for un- encrusted regulations and rules can be superseded
dertaking iterative and recursive local knowledge-in- by ones aligning with the extraordinary convergence
action and adaptable learning-by-doing activities, and opportunities.
particularly focused on accelerating and scaling ex- In this regard, a long overdue regulatory
ceptionally promising options leading to multilocality makeover is ensuring the delivery of least-cost and
transformational changes worldwide. least-risk (LCR) utility services at the point of use.
Every city or community is unique in numerous The regulatory procedures overseeing the traditional
respects, embedded in diverse cultures, economies, utility industry have primarily focused on costs, while
policies, laws, regulations, and technology develop- ignoring to factor in a number of risks posing eco-
ment. At the same time, cities exhibit many similar nomic, security, and financial costs over the lifespan
methods of obtaining utility and mobility services of conventional power plants. Even regulators’ em-
and generic logistics of acquiring food and procur- phasis on costs have been artificially truncated by ex-
ing goods. Opportunities abound for taking triple S clusively focusing on supply-side expansion options
actions in any and all of these urban areas. The vi- while excluding the vast and still-expanding pool of
ability of specific ATP will require a recursive and demand-side, end-use efficiency, onsite and locally
flexible process that involves local change agents tak- distributed generation resources.68 For example, three
ing the common knowledge resources and experiences decades of experience in harnessing end-use efficiency
shared and accumulated through the greenATP net- improvements to deliver utility services in a number
works, determining local applicability fit and need for of pioneering service territories have been five to 15
modifications, discerning the best ways and means times less costly than the range of supply expansion
of promoting actions locally, and continuing to it- options.69,70
erate and adapt this process as outcomes, results, The global implications of capital misallocation
barriers, impasses, etc., unfold and require useful and lost opportunities are massive. Just the construc-
advice from the pool of network collaborators and tion of power plants and transmission lines over the
cooperators. next 20 years will consume $28 trillion of investment
capital to generate approximately 13 trillion kWh per
year. However, if an LCR comprehensive integrated
Mobilizing for the Delivery of Least-Cost resource planning (IRP) methodology is adopted, then
and Least-Risk Utility Services end-use efficiency emerges as the highest priority,71
Lovins65 makes the telling insight in his recent gem as do many onsite and locally distributed resource
of a book, Reinventing Fire, ‘The convergence of options. Collectively, they can cost-effectively and
electricity and information, with rapid innovations competitively ‘deliver’ half of these kWhs, effectively
in both, makes 21st century technologies and busi- freeing up $14 trillion (gross, or perhaps $12 trillion
ness models collide with 20th and even 19th century net after incentives and operating costs), while poten-
cultures and institutions, often encrusted with regu- tially reducing annual customer costs by more than
latory structures and rules that no longer fit today’s half a trillion dollars per year.
evolving needs.’ Industrial electric drive motor systems nicely il-
This is of monumental importance to address in lustrate these opportunities. Half of all electricity con-
order to facilitate the convergence of buildings, ve- sumed worldwide goes just to power electric motors,
hicles, factories, and grids. As CleanTech publisher pumps, compressors, and fans. In China, it is 60%,
Joel Makower reminds us, ‘Relative to smartphone and industry is paying 10 cents per kWh for that
technologies, conVERGE technologies are far more delivered electricity. As Jiangsu Province discovered



F I G U R E 6 | McKinsey Version 2.1 global GHG abatement curve beyond BAU, 2030. Average cost of abatement opportunities up to 38 Gt CO2
equal zero € per ton CO2 e, if benefits from negative cost on left-hand side are fully captured. The curve presents an estimate of the maximum
potential of all technical GHG abatement measures below €80 per ton CO2 e if each lever was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role
different measures and technologies will play. (Reprinted with permission from Ref 71. Copyright 2010, McKinsey Global Institute.)

Sidebar components and replace with high-performance mod-
els at a delivered cost of electricity of one cent per
McKinsey Global’s global carbon abatement cost curve as- kWh.
sessments consistently show enormous opportunities for For most of the past decade, all the official en-
achieving deep GHG emission reductions at zero net costs ergy projections have indicated that coal and natu-
over the next several decades. Figure 6 shows that the av- ral gas would constitute 3/4ths of this power plant
erage cost of abatement opportunities up to 38 Gt CO2 e by growth. So, displacing a large percentage of these fos-
2030 equal zero € per ton CO2 e, if benefits from negative sil fuels through zero emissions efficiency gains would
cost on left-hand side are fully captured. The curve presents achieve cost-free reductions of several billion tons of
an estimate of the maximum potential of all technical GHG CO2 per year, as well as deep reductions in acid rain,
abatement measures below €80 per ton CO2 e if each lever smog, mercury, and toxic chemical pollutants—a
was pursued aggressively. It is not a forecast of what role social benefit worth several tens of billions of dollars
different measures and technologies will play. A critically per year in avoided mitigation expenses and health
important insight is that delaying action for 10 years would and ecological damage costs.
reduce the technical abatement potential in 2030 by half. There are three key fiscally prudent and finan-
The other critically important insight is that reducing de- cially responsible criteria which should govern the
forestation, restoring ecosystem degradation, and regen- design and operation of utility delivery systems,
erating agriculture systems represent the largest pool of whether electricity, natural gas, water, or waste and
cost-effective options. It is several fold less costly than car- sanitation.
bon capture and storage (CCS) of fossil GHG emissions into First, adopt a comprehensive IRP that ranks
geological caverns, and immediately available unlike CCS all supply and demand-side (customer-site) resource
still a decade away from commercialization. opportunities according to cost and risk for de-
livering utility services at the point of use. Costs
also include transmission and distribution expenses,
plus risk adjustment for exposure to price volatil-
(in a MOU partnership with California), they could ity from long-term dependence on fuel and wa-
swap out 10,000 MW of inefficient industrial drive ter requirements, and for externalities such as CO2



emissions, air pollutants, ground and water contam- the nation had followed California’s regulatory inno-
inants, and a non-zero probability of complete asset vations, it would have avoided construction of 180
loss and large replacement costs (i.e., Fukishima-type GW of coal plants and saved several hundred billion
disasters).72 dollars per year on utility bills.85
Second, remove the regulatory disincentive Half of humanity now lives in urban areas and
that undermines utility investment in least-cost nearly three-fourths of the global population, or more
customer-site resource options. This requires aligning than six billion people, will be urban residents by
the financial interests of the utility provider with those 2050. Financing the provision of electricity, natu-
of their customers, which can be achieved by regula- ral gas, water, sanitation, waste treatment, mobility
tory agencies decoupling utility revenues from gross access, telecommunication, and other urban services
sales. Allowing utilities to recoup lost earnings from pose monumental burdens for local governments. An
declining revenues as a result of helping customers re- LCR utility services strategy is imperative in order
duce their bills by taking advantage of cost-effective to wisely apply ratepayer and taxpayer dollars (e.g.,
end-use efficiency opportunities.73,74 fossil fuels annually capture half a trillion dollars in
Third, combine this with performance incen- global tax subsidies, excluding several fold more in
tives for the utility to apply its long-term, low-cost public costs incurred in cleaning up externalities and
capital in financing the customer-site efficiency gains, suffering health damages).
along with providing technical assistance in identify- Distributing the utility’s access to low-cost,
ing what products perform best, as well as remov- long-term capital to harness urban (and rural) dis-
ing other transaction costs through partnerships with tributed LCR utility services has a multiplier effect in
stakeholder groups and government agencies.75 capturing other highly desired ancillary values: sev-
These regulatory innovations can result in five eral fold more local jobs generated per dollar of in-
to 10 times more customer-site services through effi- vestment than from large coal, nuclear, and hydro
ciency gains ranking as LCR options. Without the dam plants, with the job earnings spent in the local
innovations, utility customers are unlikely to cap- economy (while also saving local governments’ unem-
ture more than 10–20% of the cost-effective op- ployment insurance and public assistance payments);
portunities available because of their much higher cleaner, healthier air, water and soil; urban revitaliza-
discount rates and rate of return requirements than tion with greener construction; greater resilience, se-
the utility’s, combined with customer inertia induced curity and lower vulnerability to price volatilities due
by a host of transaction costs and multiple market to weather-triggered disasters or human-generated
barriers.76–80 disruptions.
Accumulated empirical experience over the past When LCR rankings indicate expanding new
several decades in regions with comprehensive IRP supply, insights and evidence from financial port-
utility frameworks—e.g., in western, Pacific north- folio theory strongly point to increasing greater
west and northeast US states, in a number of Aus- reliance on those options with the least compos-
tralian states and cities, and in China’s Jiangsu ite footprint impacts and risks.86 Solar and wind
province—provides compelling evidence for adopt- power rank as the most resilient and least impacting
ing the IRP methodology.81,82 The methodology also when evaluated from multirisk perspectives (as noted
proves to be a more open and transparent process above).56
combined with broader stakeholder engagement, the Commercial progress in solar and wind power
reduction of subsidies and negative externalities, and is occurring so rapidly that facts a year ago are woe-
greater consideration of the unique local and regional fully out of date. Under a strong LCR planning frame-
social and ecological conditions.83 work, where monetized risks are fully incorporated,
IRP approaches that integrate electricity and wind and solar rank as the most economically at-
water planning, as in California, have identified mul- tractive and abundant supply options. A global net-
tiple LCR opportunities, which have saved electricity work of land-based 2.5 MW turbines restricted to
and natural gas by delivering water services more ef- nonforested, ice-free, nonurban areas operating at as
ficiently. California water uses consume 20% of the little as 20% of their rated capacity could supply
state’s total electricity and one-third of the State’s to- more than 40 times current global power consump-
tal natural gas in pumping, distributing, heating and tion, and five times total global energy use.87 US wind
disposing of the state’s water.84 Over the past three resources, specifically in the Great Plains, could pro-
decades, California’s LCR regulatory innovations cut vide as much as 16 times total current power. Both
its electric sector CO2 emissions by half while accru- the United States and China, which together emit
ing households $1000 on utility savings; if the rest of one-third of global GHG emissions, could steadily



displace all existing and new coal power plants with can continually inform the public-at-large, galvaniz-
their wind resources.88,89 When phased in with utility ing and mobilizing public opinion in support of LCR
bill-reducing efficiency opportunities, the system cost practices and rules.
of delivering electricity should be comparable to or Regulatory agencies are typically laggards, not
less than continuing dependence on coal plants pow- leaders; they view problems linearly, seldom from
ering inefficient devices. fully integrative and systemic perspectives. Yet, the
With the steady cost declines in solar power multiple wicked problems of our times call not just
systems now underway (and expected to reach grid for leaders of business-as-usual, but heroic levels of
parity by 2015, or sooner under an LCR framework visionary leadership, particularly in addressing non-
combined with feed-in tariffs), there is a good pos- linear complex systems. GreenATP COINs can sus-
sibility of powering the world mostly by solar in tain the pressure calling for such transformational
the latter half of this century. Already, at $3 per and inspirational actions. An exemplary opportunity
gallon of gasoline (equivalent to electricity at 32 regards the third component of the triple S portfo-
cents/kWh), solar electric charging stations are cost- lio, Sourcing CO2 emission offsets. Hypothetically,
effective to power the world’s 150 million existing if Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) was suddenly
electric bikes and scooters, with sales increasing 10% available overnight and applied to the 2.4 billion tons
per annum. Limited space prevents full discussion of of CO2 emissions from US fossil-fired electricity gen-
caveats, nuances, other relevant policy, and regula- eration (at the future projected cost of $45 per tCO2 ),
tory needs, which are discussed in a range of recent this would amount to nearly $100 billion per year,
publications.90–92 adding 3–5 cents per kWh of electricity.
Although there are strong indications that so- In sharp contrast, ecological carbon storage
lar and wind power will be as competitive or less (ECS), or reducing emissions from deforestation and
expensive over the long run with fossil or nuclear degradation (REDD) as it is referred to in climate ne-
options, in the larger perspective of unprecedented gotiations, is immediately available at an average cost
climate catastrophe costs, multi-trillion oil wars and of $7.50 per tCO2 , six times lower cost than future
non-zero probabilities of nuclear reactor disasters, ad- CCS cost projections.94 This would add half a penny
hering closely to cost-benefit analyses is foolish. As per kWh to utility costs, but the end-use efficiency
Harvard economics professor Martin Weitzman has gains (from Shrinking) would reduce utility bills well
cogently articulated, the real question we should be beyond this slight increase. How much would be
answering is how much climate catastrophe insurance raised for ECS/REDD + financing? About $18 billion
humanity needs. per year, which is roughly the sum estimated neces-
Using greenATP COINs to promote the triple S sary for incentive payments to prevent most tropical
portfolio of actions can perform several key roles in deforestation.95
overcoming and superseding existing barriers and my-
opic thinking. Many regulatory commissioners, for Sourcing Standards-Based, Multiple-Benefit
example are political appointees (cronies) with lit- Offsets
tle understanding or interest in authentic LCR prac- It is an astonishingly under-reported fact that 15–
tices. GreenATP COINs could generate the knowl- 20% of total global CO2 emissions are due to the
edge and local advocates to hold these agencies ac- burning of 14 million hectares of tropical forests each
countable for their failure in performing due dili- year. This is an amount greater than the emissions
gence on the extra costs and risks by not adopting released by the global transport sector, and roughly
LCR regulations. Most regulatory commissions and the same level as the annual CO2 emissions of the
environmental protection agencies operate in silos, United States or China.
failing to recognize the synergistic LCR benefits that Nearly a decade ago, the Climate, Commu-
accrue by productively working together.93 Likewise, nity & Biodiversity (CCB) standards were launched
greenATP COINs can help forge those connections. as a multiple-benefits approach to sourcing emis-
All public regulatory agencies are underfunded and sion offsets. The voluntary standards help design and
understaffed, disproportionately so relative to the in- identify land management activities that simultane-
dustries they are responsible for setting regulations. ously minimize climate change, support sustainable
Citizens can marshal together the pool of LCR facts, development, and conserve biodiversity. Analogous
documentation, cases, analyses, etc., effectively serv- to green building standards such as LEED, that re-
ing as an ad hoc task force. Most regulatory agencies quires going beyond just making a building energy
perform miserably in transparently communicating efficient, CCB standards require going beyond just do-
their decision-making processes. GreenATP COINs ing carbon mitigation and encompassing community



sustainability, improved local livelihoods, and pro- and the web platform and collaboration technologies
tecting or restoring the health and integrity of ecosys- for sharing and acting on this intelligence are avail-
tem services and functions. able. Becoming informed by trusted sources has been
CCB has become the most used land-based shown time and again to generate engaged, coop-
standard worldwide, and widely recognized as a erative behavior. As Mark Twain brilliantly noted,
high-quality, triple benefits standard used for address- ‘Once you lose your ignorance, it’s hard to get it
ing three pressing social and environmental prob- back.’
lems. In a world still without global agreement on
capping and deeply reducing GHG emissions, such
voluntary leadership actions remain essential for
sustaining momentum toward phasing out GHG
NOTES
a
emissions, while demonstrating that it can be achieved A diversity of terms and definitions have been pro-
simultaneously with development for all and sustain- posed for describing the essential or salient properties
ing healthy ecosystem services. of planetary well-being, encompassing humanity, bio-
diversity, and biosphere integrity, now and over fu-
ture generations. No one definition, let alone a single
CONCLUSION word, adequately captures this complex process. Sus-
tainability is a primary term of long-time use, but is so
Spurring Reputational Markets and pliant that it allows a multitude of, sometimes contra-
Transparent Governance dictory, interpretations. Concatenations of terms used
The radical evolution of IT, now enabling a pow- by some writers to contextualize the spatiotempo-
erful symbiosis with smarter, greener ways to pro- ral complexity, e.g., ‘cleaner, greener, safer, smarter,
duce and deliver utility and mobility services, should more secure and resilient, and ecologically sustain-
be used for accelerating and scaling solutions to able’ is unwieldy and still incomplete. I rely on these
the multiple wicked problems confronting human- various words throughout the paper, recognizing that
ity. Our hypothesis is that web-based COIN plat- none of them captures but some aspects or dimensions
forms such as greenATP can play invaluable roles of a far more complex dynamic continuously evolving
in moving society beyond the linear mindset that through time.
b
has led to planetary-scale externalities threatening the Carbon dioxide equivalents is a metric measure used
long-term well-being of humans and nature. Whether to compare the global warming potential (GWP) from
called greenATP or a million other names is unim- several dozen radiatively active trace gases, collec-
portant, what is most important is the coopera- tively referred to as greenhouse gas emissions. Car-
tion, sharing, and local actions initiated through the bon dioxide equivalents are commonly expressed as
small world and weak links of collaboration net- ‘million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents
works. Constellations and clusters of such COINs (MMTCDE)’. The carbon dioxide equivalent for a
web-linked worldwide offer powerful new forms gas is derived by multiplying the tonnes of the gas
of distributed solutions: distributed forms of capi- by the associated GWP. For example, the GWP for
tal financing, end-use energy services, and local re- methane is 21 and for nitrous oxide 310. This means
newable resource options, and applied intelligence that emissions of 1 million metric tonnes of methane
for better sense making of multiple-benefit local and nitrous oxide respectively is equivalent to
solutions. emissions of 21 and 310 million metric tonnes of car-
Such COINs enable, at the same time, shin- bon dioxide. [definition based on IPCC Third Assess-
ing sunlight and spotlights on infectious activities ment Report, 2001].
c
such as crony capitalism, legalized graft, embedded Estimates of hydro dam emissions range widely. The
corruption, locked-out populations, perverse subsi- World Commission on Dams 2000 report included a
dies, skewed and archaic regulations, lax enforce- span of 2–28% of total global GHG emissions based
ment, and entrenched moneyed interests shaping on a literature review, St. Louis et al.18 estimated 7%
media opinions and distortions without transpar- extrapolated from 30 catchment basin measurements,
ent disclosure. COINs can manifest the knowledge and a 2011 Nature Geoscience article by Barros et al.
needed to move humanity beyond the Prisoner’s estimate emissions at less than 1% of total global
Dilemma that is afflicting national and international emissions.
d
decision makers. Both the positive knowledge for The term ‘tipping point’ commonly refers to a crit-
solving wicked problems such as climate change, ical threshold at which a tiny perturbation can qual-
mass poverty, biodiversity extinction, and oil wars, itatively alter the state or development of a system.



Lenton et al. introduce the term ‘tipping element’ to service for all. The basic concept behind MeshUp
describe large-scale components of the earth system technologies is to create Open-InfoSpace where in-
that may pass a tipping point. dividuals and organizations gain free and simplified
e
Mesh, also called ‘meshup’, is an Internet informa- access to an integrated open base of information ser-
tion and communication network concept. ‘MeshUp vices, contents, platforms, and infrastructures and are
technologies allow using available data, mobiles de- free to integrate and modify them, as the whole re-
vices, Web applications, and wireless networks to source environment evolves. By satisfying their needs,
create infinity of new information services. MeshUp users and resource providers enhance and upgrade the
technologies merge many forms of data and content system.’ Definition by the European Consen Group,
loosely adding knowledge in a practical information http://meshup.org/node/33.

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