Dedicated to Inspiration: 100% Renewable Energy Vision
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This document discusses research by Mark Jacobson and Mark Delucchi on transitioning energy systems to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) power. It summarizes their studies analyzing pathways to transition the United States, individual states like California, and the entire world to 100% renewable energy systems by 2050. Their research finds that this can be accomplished cost-effectively while reducing air pollution and related health impacts and costs. Specific generation mixes are proposed for different locations based on available wind, solar, hydro, and other renewable resources in each area.
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Dedicated to Inspiration: 100% Renewable Energy Vision
- 7. Law of Accelerating Returns Information technologies Communication technologies Miniaturized technologies COIN technologies
- 8. Information Technologies (of all kinds) double their power (price performance, capacity, bandwidth) every year -- Law of Accelerating Returns Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot 16 Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw Doubling)(or)Halving)times) • Dynamic RAM Memory “Half Pitch” Feature Size 5.4 years • Dynamic RAM Memory (bits per dollar) 1.5 years • Average Transistor Price 1.6 years • Microprocessor Cost per Transistor Cycle 1.1 years • Total Bits Shipped 1.1 years • Processor Performance in MIPS 1.8 years • Transistors in Intel Microprocessors 2.0 years • Microprocessor Clock Speed 2.7 years
- 9. Law of Accelerating Returns Every form of communications technology is doubling price-performance, bandwidth, capacity every 12 months Moore’s)Law)is)only)one)example Exponential)Growth)of)Computing)for)110)Years) Moore's)Law)was)the)fifth,)not)the)first,) paradigm)to)bring)exponential)growth)in)computing Year Logarithmic+Plot 15 Ray Kurzweil, What Does the Future Look Like, Sept 18, 2012, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oe7hG1NXVdw Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot Logarithmic+Plot
- 10. Law of Accelerating Returns Miniaturization: another exponential trend http://www.ted.com/talks/ ray_kurzweil_on_how_technology_will_transform_us?language=en https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vnyQWr8hk0A Ray Kurzweil Exponential Finance July, 2014 Wireless smart sensor networks Trillion$ Valuable Smartphone NANO technology engineering & Mfg
- 11. Law of Accelerating Returns COllaborative Intelligence/Innovation Networks (COINs) another exponential trend Wikipedia, the world’s largest and fastest growing encyclopedia, premier example of an open source COIN to date. It is one of the top 5 to 7 daily visited Internet sites in the world (monthly readership of ~500 million worldwide). 34 million free usable articles in 288 languages that have been written by over 50 million registered users and numerous anonymous contributors worldwide. 15,000 volumes equivalent to Encyclopedia Britannica. 100 million hours to create Wikipedia over the first decade. By comparison, Americans spend 132 million hours each day on Facebook (430 million hours each day worldwide); and Americans watch 100 million hours of TV ads every weekend. There are thousands of open source COINs currently operating Proliferation of Open Source COINs Collaborative Intelligence/Innovation Networks
- 12. Ray Kurzweil, Kurzweilai.net, presentation at Google, 2009 20th Century Organizations 21st Century Organizations
- 13. sors) Visions ot ch ntially s for a it. by new market 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 1995 2000 2014 2020 People Online Smartphones People Online (billions)Machine-to-Machine (M2M) Two Explosive Exponential Trends driving IP addressable Internet of Everything (IoE) Source: Benedict Evans, Industrial Internet,11-2014, Partner, Andreesen- Horowitz; and, B. Evans, Mobile Is Eating the World, May 2013 (Left) Road Map for the Trillion Sensor Universe, 11/2013, Janusz Bryzek,VP, MEMS and Sensing Solutions, Fairchild Semiconductor
- 14. Personal Pocket SuperComputers SuperComputer Networkers Human & Knowledge Capital Social, Civic & Intelligence Capital
- 15. Catalyzing Collaborative Innovation Networks Daylighting HVAC LEDs Buildings Pumps/Compressors Water Chillers Landscaping Plugloads Financing Mobility Architecture Motors EVs Windows Solar PV Solar thermal codes standards FITs decoupling+ incentives design smart sensor networkssolar gardens LEED ++ zero waste beyond zero net visualization geospatial mapping BIPV Albedo surfaces integration APPs complete streets bikes MOOCs wind biogeothermal conservationprocurement aggregation E-Lab epeat collaboration innovation networks peer-to-peer 10xE microgrids COIN – Ad hoc self- organized groups of self-motivated citizens, geographically dispersed, focused on accomplishing a specific mission
- 16. http://www.statista.com/statistics/266488/forecast-of-mobile-app-downloads/ APP Use Growing Exponentiallymillions
- 17. Making Smarter & Integrated Sectors Grids+Vehicles+Buildings+Industries The Next Industrial Revolution
- 21. Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives, 2008, p. 366. The figure is based on National Petroleum Council, 2007 after Craig, Cunningham and Saigo. Oil Gas Uranium Coal ANNUAL Wind Hydro Photosynthesis ANNUAL Solar Energy Annual global energy consumption by humans SOLAR PHOTONS ACCRUED IN A MONTH EXCEED THE EARTH’S FOSSIL FUEL RESERVES 1( Nme( use(
- 22. In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares. Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of existing urban area— on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in dual-uses. Requires 93% less water than fossil fuels. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source! 15%'
- 23. that the turbine scaling and other improvements to turbine efficiency described in Chapter 4 have more than overcome these headwinds to help drive PPA prices lower. Source: Berkeley Lab Figure 46. Generation-weighted average levelized wind PPA prices by PPA execution date and region Figure 46 also shows trends in the generation-weighted average levelized PPA price over time among four of the five regions broken out in Figure 30 (the Southeast region is omitted from Figure 46 owing to its small sample size). Figures 45 and 46 both demonstrate that, based on our data sample, PPA prices are generally low in the U.S. Interior, high in the West, and in the middle in the Great Lakes and Northeast regions. The large Interior region, where much of U.S. wind project development occurs, saw average levelized PPA prices of just $22/MWh in 2013. U.S.'Wind'Power'LCOE'PPA'in'2013'2.5¢/kWh' Global'Wind'Power'LCOE'in'2013'6.5¢/kWh'' Ryan(Wiser(&(Mark(Bollinger,(2013(Wind(Technologies(Market(Report,(Lawrence(Berkeley,(August(2014( 6¢/kWh( 2¢/kWh( 4¢/kWh( LCOE=Levelized(Cost(of(Electricity( PPA=Power(Purchase(Agreement(
- 24. Entire State of Calif Community College System BIG BIM CLOUD COMUTING Largest System Public Higher Education in World ! 71 Million ft2 ! 2.75 Million Students ! 112 California locations ! 5,000 bldgs
- 25. IEA: World needs $48 TRILLION in investment to meet its energy needs to 2035 WHY $23 TRILLION for fossil fuels ?? $1.7 Trillion for nuclear But only $1.7 Trillion for Solar PV $3.0 Trillion for Wind 8 5 11 16 7 9 14 6 12 17 10 15 13 18 Figure 1.6 Shares of total global average annual investment in the New Policies Scenario 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2031-2035 2026-2030 2021-2025 2014-2020 Fossil fuels Power T&D Non-fossil fuel Efficiency h,ps://www.iea.org/publica1ons/ freepublica1ons/publica1on/ weo-2014-special-report--- investment.html
- 26. dependent change in U.S. end-use power demand for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, and industry) al fuels and WWS generators based on the state roadmaps proposed here. Total power demand decreases upon conversion t of electricity over combustion and end-use energy efficiency measures. The percentages on the horizontal date axis ar WWS that has occurred by that year. The percentages next to each WWS source are the final estimated penetration of th vironmental Science Vie Jacobson, Mark and Mark Delucchi et al., 100% clean and renewable wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) all-sector energy roadmaps for the 50 United States, Journal of Energy & Environmental Science, May 17, 2015, Royal Society of Chemistry, h,ps://web.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Ar1cles/I/susenergy2030.html Jacobson-Delucchi 100% WWS Energy System by 2050
- 31. 100% CALIFORNIA Transition to 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) for all purposes (electricity, transportation, heating/cooling, industry) Residential rooftop PV 7.5% Solar PV plants 27% CSP plants 15% Onshore wind 25% Offshore wind 10% Commercial/govt rooftop PV 5% Wave devices 0.5% Geothermal 5% Hydroelectric 4.4% Tidal turbines 0.5% 2050 PROJECTED ENERGY MIX 40-Year Jobs Created Number of jobs where a person is employed for 40 consecutive years Operation jobs: Construction jobs: =10,000 142,153 315,982 Using WWS electricity for everything, instead of burning fuel, and improving energy efficiency means you need much less energy. -44.3% Current demand Wind, Water, Solar VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT Data from Stanford University - For more information, visit http://go100.me/50StateTargets FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj 100% CALIFORNIA VISIT THESOLUTIONSPROJECT.ORG TO LEARN MORE AND 100.ORG TO JOIN THE MOVEMENT DatafromStanfordUniversity-Formoreinformation,visit http://go100.me/50StateTargets FOLLOW US ON 100isNow SolutionsProj P Transitionto100%wind,water,andsolar(WWS)forallpurposes (electricity,transportation,heating/cooling,industry) Avoided Mortality and Illness Costs Percentage of California Land Needed for All New WWS Generators Future Energy Costs 2050 Money in Your Pocket Avoidedhealthcostsperyear: 2.9%ofStateGDP Airpollutiondeathsavoidedeveryyear:12,528 $128B =1000 Planpaysforitselfinaslittleas2.6 yearsfromairpollutionandclimate costsavingsalone 2.61%Spacing area 0.64%Footprint area BAU(Businessasusual) WWS(Wind,water,solar) U.S.averagefossil-fuelenergycosts* 10.73 c/kWh StateaverageWWS electricitycosts 9.7 c/kWh *Healthandclimateexternalcostsoffossilfuelsareanother5.7c/kWh Annualenergy,health,andclimatecostsavingsperperson in2050:$7,395 Annualenergycostsavingsperpersonin2050:$161 = $2,000 The Solu1ons Project, h,p://thesolu1onsproject.org/infographic/#ca
- 38. Rapid, affordable energy transformation possible, study says 25 January 2016 A high-resolution map based on NOAA weather data showing one measure of wind energy potential across the United States in 2012. Credit: Chris Clack/CIRES Nature Climate Change. Although improvements in wind and solar generation have continued to ratchet down the cost of producing renewable energy, these energy resources are inherently intermittent. As a result, utilities have invested in surplus generation capacity to back up renewable energy generation with natural gas-fired generators and other reserves. "In the future, they may not need to," said co-lead author Christopher Clack, a physicist and mathematician with the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences at the University of Colorado Boulder. Since the sun is shining or winds are blowing somewhere across the United States all of the time,
- 42. 8 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov Revolution Now: The Future Arrives for Four Clean Energy Technologies. DOE. September 2014 (in press) The Progress of Wind Power in the United States • 4.6% of U.S. 2014 power generation1 • 42% of all 2012 U.S. power capacity additions, the highest of any resource 2 • Wind capacity more than doubled from 2008-2012 (average of 8.7 GW/year) 3 • 59 GW wind capacity added from 2005 to 2014 4 • 11 states with > 10% wind generation in 2014: Colorado, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Minnesota, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, and Texas 5 – Two states with >25% wind generation in 2014: Iowa (30%) and South Dakota (25%) • Average of 73,000 U.S. jobs in installation, manufacturing and operations over 2010-2014 6 Key Facts
- 43. © 2015 Clean Edge, Inc. (www.cleanedge.com). This report, and the models and analysis contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not be reproduced, published, or summarized for distribution or incorporation into a report or other document without prior approval. 6GETTING TO 100 CHART 2: ANNUAL SOLAR AND WIND INSTALLATIONS, 2000-2014 Renewable energy’s growth in the United States has been equally dramatic. Ac- cording to Clean Edge’s 2015 U.S. Clean Tech Leadership Index, which has tracked clean-energy deployment in the states since 2010, a dozen states have roughly doubled the percentage of electricity they receive from utility-scale renewable sources over the past six years. And 11 states now receive more than 10% of their in-state electricity generation from renewables. Three states – Iowa, South Dakota, and Kansas – now receive more than 20% of their electricity from wind power alone. California broke the 5% milestone for utility-scale solar PV generation in 2014, a first for any state. While many factors have played a role in this growth, the declining cost of renewable energy has arguably been the most critical. In 2007, the global average cost of a solar PV system spanning residential through utility-scale systems (in dollars per watt) was $7.20. By 2014, that figure had fallen to $2.47 per watt according to Clean Edge estimates, a decline of more than 65 percent in just seven years. Likewise, in August 2015, the U.S. Department of Energy reported that power purchase agreements (PPAs) for power produced in the wind-swept middle sections of the country had fallen to as low as 2.24 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh), down from 7 cents/kWh in 2009. In a growing number of places, both wind and solar power are already cost-com- petitive with fossil fuel-fired power plants, both in the U.S. and internationally – the all-important tipping point known as grid parity. Numerous organizations including the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and the financial advisory company Lazard, have published recent figures showing a MWh of onshore wind power can be produced at least 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Wind CAGR: 20.59% Solar PV CAGR: 42.83% Wind Annual Installed Capacity (GW) Solar PV Annual Installed Capacity (GW) Source: Clean Edge research is contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not or other document without prior approval. 5GETTING TO 100 y shows why pe dream for solar PV and rkets had ex- pound annual lled, solar PV with a 20.6% enerally expe- ergy industry. 80 to 2000. are reaping rch organiza- al and natural represented 4, with wind, ewables ’s power ximately CHART 1: SOLAR PV AND WIND MARKET SIZE, 2000-2014 ($ BILLIONS) $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 CAGR:27.60% Wind Solar Source: Clean Edge research Wind CAGR: 20.7% Solar PV CAGR: 42.8% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR)
- 44. h,ps://charlieonenergy.wordpress.com/2015/12/07/solar-and-moores-law/, December 7, 2015 / charlieonenergy 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839 HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT SOLAR PV GLOBAL GROWTH? TW years 2012 2050 15% year growth 10% yr growth 20 4 Current Global Energy Consumption in TW-years 25% year growth 60 Rate dependent upon how fiercely, effectively, and unendingly fossil fuel advocates are at deterring, delaying, derailing Solar PV Ray Kurzweil and Larry Page, calculate solar PV growth achieving 8 doublings within the next several decades, matching total global energy demand, prepared for National Academy of Engineers Workshop of Experts, 2008 2028 2035
- 45. What’s the Size of the U.S. Wind Resource? Authoritative Estimate: Developable wind resource is 13 times total U.S. electricity consumption
- 46. Evolution of Wind Turbine Size (Land Based) Ed DeMeo, Governors’ Wind & Solar Energy, Coali1on Policy Priori1es Workshop, June 19, 2015, h,p://www.governorswindenergycoali1on.org/?page_id=13502 Evolu0on of Wind Turbine Size (Land Based)
- 48. Expanding from 0.28 TW in 2012 to 1.2 TW by 2020 (20% per year growth rate 2012-2020) 5 TW by 2030 (15%/year 2011-2030) 33 TW by 2050 (10%/yr from 2031-2050) HOW TO SUSTAIN DOUBLE DIGIT GLOBAL GROWTH OF RURAL- & COASTAL-BASED WIND FARMS? years 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 TW 2012 2050 1 million 5-MW 6.6 million 5-MW 400,000 3-MW ~140,000 2-MW
- 49. $0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250 windpower farm non-wind farm US Farm Revenues per hectare govt. subsidy $0 $60 windpower royalty $200 $0 farm commodity revenues $50 $64 windpower farm non-wind farm Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/ Crop revenue Govt. subsidy Wind profits Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
- 57. 208,000 buildings equivalent to Empire State Building are planned for construction through 2030 HOW TO ACCELERATE INTEGRATED DESIGN (& DEEP RENOVATION) IN THE GLOBAL BUILDING SECTOR?Prior to 2008, the Empire State Building’s per to most U.S. office buildings. Annu Annu Annu Peak I. MOTIVATION 1) Prove or disprove the economic viability of retrofits. source: Ed Mazria, Architecture 2030, ROADMAP TO ZERO EMISSIONS, June 4, 2014, submission to Durban Platform for Enhanced Action; citing and Adapted from, Dobbs, Richard. Insights & Publications. 06-2012. http://www.mckinsey.com/insights/urbanization/ urban_world_cities_and_the_rise_of_the_consuming_class
- 59. COIN ASSET– EXAMPLES OF APPLIED ACTION! Growing ASSETsTACTICS The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for shading impacts and determines “hotspots” for solar PV. Solution MARFORRES Energy Program selected Critigen to provide its Solar Site Assessment solution at multiple installations to analyze the opportunity for efficient solar system installation. Critigen Solar Site Assessment is a remote solar assessment tool developed from Critigen’s Solar Mapping program that models the most important factors in Solar PV production: solar access, shading, rooftop azimuth and pitch, and other local variables, to determine a buildings solar potential. Critigen performed more than 10 Solar Site Assessments for the MARFORRES Energy Program, providing them with graphical and tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter resolution solar energy production potential and graphically depicts where on the roof the “hotspots” for solar are. Reports include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building- level solar potential roll-ups. The site assessments were customized to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and considerations and to meet other needs driven by DOD and legislative mandates. Result Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable information in the hands of facility and energy managers at MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site selection for future systems, one assessment revealed apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to construct the portion of the system that had been overdesigned by the installer. Costing less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV system, Critigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems Rooftop obstructions and perimeter setbacks were applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more accurate solar potential calculations. One Solar Site Assessment allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs The Critigen Solar Model assesses all surrounding topology (e.g. vegetation, buildings) in the data for shading impacts and determines “hotspots” for solar PV. Solution MARFORRES Energy Program selected Critigen to provide its Solar Site Assessment solution at multiple installations to analyze the opportunity for efficient solar system installation. Critigen Solar Site Assessment is a remote solar assessment tool developed from Critigen’s Solar Mapping program that models the most important factors in Solar PV production: solar access, shading, rooftop azimuth and pitch, and other local variables, to determine a buildings solar potential. Critigen performed more than 10 Solar Site Assessments for the MARFORRES Energy Program, providing them with graphical and tabular reports detailing building, roof-panel and sub-meter resolution solar energy production potential and graphically depicts where on the roof the “hotspots” for solar are. Reports include 3D perspective views, solar hotspot maps and building- level solar potential roll-ups. The site assessments were customized to reflect MARFORRES-specific criteria and considerations and to meet other needs driven by DOD and legislative mandates. Result Critigen Solar Site Assessments have placed actionable information in the hands of facility and energy managers at MARFORRES and are helping them locate the most efficient sites for solar energy generation. In addition to ensuring optimal site selection for future systems, one assessment revealed apportion of a rooftop with a planned solar PV system that was unsuitable for solar energy production. The assessment allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs to construct the portion of the system that had been overdesigned by the installer. Costing less than 1% of the cost of a typical large solar PV system, Critigen Solar Site Assessments have proven to provide an essential and cost-effective level of assurance that systems will deliver planned return on investment and deliver progress toward legislative mandates faced by Federal agencies. Rooftop obstructions and perimeter setbacks were applied using the MARFORRES 3D data for more accurate solar potential calculations. One Solar Site Assessment allowed MARFORRES to avoid more than $60,000 in costs for a solar PV system that had been overdesigned. Corporate Headquarters 7604 Technology Way, Suite 300 Denver, CO 80237 +1 303.706.0990 critigen.com © 2012 Critigen, LLC. All Rights Reserved. All other trademarks used herein are the property of their respective owners. ContactApps for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge BIM 7 DSG AGGREGATION Growing ASSETs Building by Building, Campus by Campus, City by City 360° Visual Tour 10x EE Roof&Ground solar PV capability inventory
- 60. ASSET – EXTERIOR BUILDINGS! SOLAR POWER TOOLS Geo-Spatial Visual Mapping Solar-capable Surfaces integrated with long-term financing option apps Apps rapidly evolving and speciating
- 61. Interactive 360º Visuals hand-held APPortunities
- 62. ASSET – INTERIOR BUILDINGS! 360º interactive View APPs for Spurring Solar & Efficiency Tech-knowledge ASSETs EarthVisionZ, location intelligent software, http://earthvisionz.com/ ,
- 63. ASSET – INTERIOR BUILDINGS AS LEARNING LAB! Using web COIN to Scale real-world big-gain results RMI Deep-Dive 10xE Learning Tools & Experience
- 64. VROOM
- 65. Mapping Cities’ Roof & Road tops for Solar Reflecting Savings Each%m2%white%roof%offsets%1%ton%CO2 US$2 Trillion Global Savings 50+ billion tons CO2 reduced Singapore%EXPO%Conven;on%&%Exhibi;on%Centre Urban%Heat%Island The long-term effect of increasing the albedo of urban areas, Hashem Akbari, H Damon Matthews and Donny Seto, Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2012) 024004
- 66. Over 4000 Walmart stores with white roofs, and standard practice since 1990 Reflects away 80% of solar heat SOLAR REFLECTORS
- 67. ASSET – CITYSCAPE SCALE! APP-Aggregating Assemblages of Buildings Priority-Ranking Biggest Opportunities Incorporating Financing Algorithms COINs for learning, skills, training, practice, verification, adaptation, time saving Arizona State University researchers have developed a new software system capable of estimating GHG emissions across entire urban landscapes, all the way down to roads and individual buildings. Until now, scientists quantified CO2 emissions at a much broader level. Dubbed "Hestia" after the Greek goddess of the hearth and home, the system combines extensive public database "data-mining" with traffic simulation and building-by-building energy-consumption modeling. Its high-resolution maps clearly identify CO2 emission sources in a way that policy- makers can utilize and the public can understand. Hestia provides a complete, three-dimensional picture of where, when, and how carbon dioxide emissions are occurring. Credit: Kevin Gurney, Bedrich Benes, Michel Abdul-Massih, Suzanna Remec, Jim Hurst
- 68. GTM, US Residential Solar Finance Landscape Map, Feb 2013, http://www.greentechmedia.com/research/report/u.s.-residential-solar-pv-financing One-Click, One-Stop Process for Solar PV Assessment-Financing-Installation-Operation U.S. Residential Solar PV Financing: TheVendor, Installer and Financier Landscape, 2013-2016
- 69. 21 Some of the most exciting work RMI has done,and is doing,is with our industrial collaborators.We work with some of the best engineers and planners in the world,who feel that RMI really adds something to their products,investments, capabilities,and strategies.We are at the front of a wave of better design combined with more responsible,long-term thinking—and we’ve been helping shape that wave. —Robert“Hutch”Hutchinson, RMI Managing Director energy into customer value: much less than 1 W -67% power plant -10% transmission and distribution -33% cooling -4% lighting -15% uninterruptible power supply -10% fans -35% power supply -85% underutilization energy is lost in the process in a conventional data center debloat software and ensure that every computation cycle is needed … … then cut IT equipment’s internal losses by 75% … … then cut utility losses by 50% … ENERGY INTO ENERGY LOSS -40% zero-value applications business processes energy into plant: 100 W Here’s how whole-systems design can save energy at each step of the value chain. Most of the fuel energy is lost even before it leaves the power plant and only a tiny fraction provides real value. W electricity supply data center applications business processes 100 30 16 0.9 0.4 W 1.4 A MULTIPLYING EFFECT The savings compound as you go upstream, multiplying downstream savings by up to about 100-fold. server 15 29 98 1 2 4 3 inefficient & inefficient … then cut cooling and power supply energy by 90% … GraphicbyStanfordKayStudio.ReprintedbypermissionfromReinventingFire,publishedbyChelseaGreen,2011. ive U.S. industrial sector that oductivity by 2050 and is r savings. r generates more than 40% employs almost 20 million r mills, chemical plants, , light manufacturing and This mighty engine consumed ergy in 2010, 76% of which eater adoption of energy ty to increase the productivity s and driving global 28 trillion, U.S. industry would resent value return from Companies that can overcome l barriers and make the bold efficiency improvements globally competitive—and atile fossil fuel prices. emerging energy efficiency ing waste heat, and using ape and optimize subsystems 050 it is possible to reduce ast 9% below 2010 levels even ows by 84%. forming industrial process and and oil and all but 10 quads dustry, even before adopting FOCUS RMI has a long history of collaborating with industry on solutions, design of products and processes and the application of renewable and alternative energy sources. We push clients hard on efficiency, renewables, and related sustainability issues. Our strengths in working with industry include our knowledge of energy and efficiency technologies, our expertise in shaping integrative, cross-functional design experiences, our information-gathering network, and our professionalism. We facilitate innovative thinking and bring together unusual partners. We have new clients in the mining, automotive, industrial process, and oil and gas industries. We look forward to sharing more in the future as this work unfolds—creating rapid mutual learning, teachable cases, and competitive pressure for emulation. As we complete Reinventing Fire research, RMI is reinvigorating its industrial work. This is a key part of RMI’s heritage and one we intend to keep active and vibrant. As before, RMI will work with select major firms to maximize energy efficiency across their operations— focusing on radically productive processes and effective products. We may also help drive fundamental changes in buildings, fleets, self- generation of power, and corporate strategy. Less than1% actually creates customer value. of the power-plant fuel that makes electricity for a data center energy into customer value: much less than 1 W -67% power plant -10% transmission and distribution -33% cooling -4% lighting -15% uninterruptible power supply -10% fans -35% power supply -85% underutilization energy is lost in the process in a conventional data center debloat software and ensure that every computation cycle is needed … … then cut IT equipment’s internal losses by 75% … … then cut utility losses by 50% … ENERGY INTO ENERGY LOSS -40% zero-value applications business processes energy into plant: 100 W Here’s how whole-systems design can save energy at each step of the value chain. Most of the fuel energy is lost even before it leaves the power plant and only a tiny fraction provides real value. W electricity supply data center applications business processes 100 30 16 0.91.4server 29 98 1 2 4 3 inefficient & inefficient … then cut cooling and power supply energy by 90% … GraphicbyStanfordKayStudio.ReprintedbypermissionfromReinventingFire,publishedbyChelseaGreen,2011. Deep-Dive Efficiency - Factor 5+ Industry & Mfg Sector Poor Factor 5+
- 70. Now use 1/2 global power 30-50% efficiency savings achievable w/ high ROI ELECTRIC MOTOR SYSTEMS
- 71. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g04-G53mbmc 3D, 4D, 5D, 6D, 7D BIM Continuous, smarter performance
- 72. Solar-charged Electric tricycles in Philippines Electric-Powered Mobility Innovation Globally Nearly 1/2 billion electric bikes, trikes, scooters by 2015
- 73. Solar PV Charging stations Electric Bicycles/Scooters
- 74. Cost of owning and operating an e-bike is the lowest of all personal motorized transportation in China. 120 million electric bicycles & scooters in China $3 per gallon gasoline is equivalent to 36 cents per kWh – twice as expensive as solar PV electricity Source: Jonathan Weinert, Chaktan Ma, Chris Cherry, The Transition to Electric Bikes in China: History and Key Reasons for Rapid Growth; Alan Durning, Three Trends that favor electric bikes, 12-20-10, www.grist.org/article/charging-up
- 76. Real-world Wind turbine performance metricsComputer model wind farm optimization 3D Simulation Collaboration Rooms Simulation Wind Turbine Erection w/ Crawler Crane WIND SIMs
- 77. Women Barefoot Solar Engineers Worldwide
- 78. Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
- 79. BIG BIM, BIG DATA BIG CONTINUOUS RESULTS
- 81. From Integrated designs to integrated operations Building Lighting HVAC low-side Plug Loads Computing HVAC high-side Realistic scenario -variables Occupancy Operating hours Occupant behavior Weather Loads I N T E G R A T E D D E S I N G S I N T E G R A T E D O P E R A T I O N S Design stage – most efficient/peak 36 Integrated'Designs'&'Integrated'Opera6ons' Lifecycle(&(CradlePtoPCradle( Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by( innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014( Infosys BPO awarded 5-Star Rating by B Efficiency (BEE) 5-star rating signifies being the most energy efficient Bangalore, India - May 13, 2010: Infosys BPO, the busin subsidiary of Infosys Technologies, today announced that it has rating for energy efficiency by Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) f Phase 2 campus in Hinjewadi, Pune, India. The rating is under buildings” scheme of BEE that rates office buildings in India from rendered on a scale of 1 to 5 stars, where a 5-star rating signifi efficient. The rating is valid for a period of 5 years. 36(Mc2' buildings'
- 82. Integrated and goal oriented design approach HVAC(Goal( Ligh3ng(Goal( Water(Goal( ! Max envelope heat gain 1.0 W/sqft ! Total building @ 750-1000 sqft/TR ! 25 deg C, 55% RH ! LPD of 0.45 W/sqft ! 90% of building to be day lit > 110 lux ! No Glare throughout the year ! Architects ! Facade Specialists ! IT Specialists ! HVAC Engineers ! Lighting Specialists ! Architects ! Facade Specialists ! Lighting Specialists ! Electrical Designers ! PHE Engineers ! Architects ! Landscape Architects ! Less than 25 LPD for office building ! Zero discharge ! 100% self sufficient T E A M G O A L( 13 Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(Sept(15,(2014(
- 83. Building Analytics in action At one client facility running Building Analytics, the preheating coil and cooling coil were operating simultaneously and wasting more than $900 and 80,000 kBTUs on a daily basis. The problem was pinpointed at a leaking chilled water valve that once repaired produced $60,000 in annual savings with ROI in the first month. Mixed air temperature sensor Outdoor air temp “Occupancy” is at set point Return fan status Preheating discharge temperature Heating valve position Cooling valve position Supply air temperature set point Supply fan status Simultaneous heating and cooling Building name: Equipment name: Analysis name: Estimated daily cost savings: Problem: Excess or simultaneous heating and cooling either providing excess heating or cooling or operating simultaneously. Possible causes: and is leaking. > Temperature sensor error or sensor installation error is causing improper control of the valves. SMALL'SENSORS' BIG'DATA' VISUAL'ANALYTICS'
- 84. • 20%'reduc6on'in'build' costs'(buy'4,'get'one'free!)' • 33%'reduc6on'is'costs'over' the'life6me'of'the'building' • 47%'to'65%'reduc6on'in' conflicts'and're$work' during'construc6on' • 44%'to'59%'increase'in'the' overall'project'quality' • 35%'to'43%'reduc6on'in' risk,'beLer'predictability'of' outcomes' • 34%'to'40%'beLer' performing'completed' infrastructure' • 32%'to'38%'improvement' in'review'and'approval' cycles' BIM'Lifecycle'' Con6nuous'Commissioning'
- 85. Benchmarking of Infosys buildings Design%target% Units% Exis:ng%(US)% BeXer% Best%prac:ce% Infosys% Delivered(energy(intensity( kBtu/sfYy( 90( 40Y60( <30( <25( LPD:(Design( W/sf( 1.5( 0.8( 0.4Y0.6( 0.4Y0.6( LPD:(Opera3onal( W/sf( 1.5( 0.6( 0.1Y0.3( <0.15( Installed(computers/appliances..( W/sf( 4Y6( 1Y2( <0.5( <0.7( Glazing(RYvalue((center(of(glass)( sfYF0Yh/Btu( 1Y2( 6Y10( ≥20( >5( Window(RYvalue((including(frame)( sfYF0Yh/Btu( 1( 3( 7Y8( >5( Glazing(spectral(selec3vity( Ke(=(Tvis/SF( 1( 1.2( >2.0( >2.0( Roof(solar(absorptance(and(emilance( α,(ε# 0.8,(0.2( 0.4,(0.4( 0.08,(0.97( 0.18,(0.99( Installed(mechanical(cooling( sf/ton( 250Y350( 500Y600( 1200Y1400+( 750(Y(1000( Cooling(designYhour(efficiency( kW/ton( 1.9( 1.2Y1.5( <0.6( <0.59( US India 11 Punit(Desai,(Environmental(Sustainability(at(Infosys(Driven(by(values,(Powered(by(innovaNon,(InfoSys,(presentaNon(to(RMI,(09P15P2014(
- 86. Issa, Suermann and Olbina 2D 3D 4D 5D Risk Figure 3: Decrease in project risk with the increase in model details VICO Control is a location based virtual construction system that allows the creation of compressed schedules which al- low the user to determine progress by comparing actual productivity to the project schedule. Many BIM models are not able to store information beyond what the building looks like and as such do not allow the user to store info on the construction process. VICO Control allows integrated construction of the whole project and allows the user to link duration and cost in- formation directly to the model. Accordingly the user can instantly see the impact of changes in scope and schedule on the entire project. It links the building model to estimating and scheduling information going from 3D to 5D and allows the user to add additional parameters to each and every element in the BIM. Thus, the user can attach a recipe describing the means Decrease'in'project'risk'' with'increase'in'BIM'details' 6D Cradle'to'Cradle*Facility*Lifespan*Integra6on** 7D Neil(Calvert,(“Why(We(Care(About(BIM…,”(DirecNons(Magazine,(Dec.(11,(2013,( h,p://www.direcNonsmag.com/arNcles/whyPwePcarePaboutPbim/368436(( A/E'Firms' Contractors' Owners'
- 87. The FUSION + CCC GIS + Onuma Collaboration Platform links three separate web tools to create a flexible and powerful means for districts to work on projects across the facilities life-cycle, from campus master planning to energy monitoring to maintenance job ticketing. Calif. Community Colleges’ FUSION Facilities Utilization Space Inventory Options Net COLLABORATE BIG BIM Bang -- Enterprise BIM and BIG Data -- Sharing Data, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls
- 88. BIG BIM Bang -- Enterprise BIM and BIG Data -- Sharing Data, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls
- 89. BIG BIM Bang -- Enterprise BIM and BIG Data -- Sharing Data, AIA Technology in Architectural Practice, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dajUgdz_rls Exponential Organization Methods
- 95. Of these 11 analyses, the median value of Net metering policies have been critical to the Figure ES-1: Retail Electricity Rates and the Values of Solar Energy in 11 Cost-Benefit Analyses. 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 30.00 35.00 CentsperkWh (U)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, utilities (PUC)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, public utilities commissions (O)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, non-utility organizations Retail Electricity Rate Value of Solarons Retail Electricity Rate Value of Solar Average Retail Residen0al Electricity Rates Compared to Values of Solar in 11 Cost-Benefit Analysis h,ps://ilsr.org/solar-net-metering-a-subsidy-to-u1li1es/ John Farrell, June 25, 2015 U U U O O PUC O O PUC O O (U)—Studies wrimen by, or commissioned by, u0li0es (PUC)—Studies wrimen by, or commissioned by, public u0li0es commissions (O)—Studies wrimen by, or commissioned by, non- u0lity organiza0ons
- 96. Categories of Benefits & Costs Included in Each Value of Solar Energy Cost-Benefit Analysis* Solar Energy is Worth More Than the Benefits from Net Metering 15 ety, or did it only consider a limited number of direct benefits to the grid and the utility? The most basic way to value solar, and the most common, is to calculate the avoided costs that result from its expansion.29 In other words, what costs do Value Provided by Solar Energy Usually Exceeds Benefits from Net Metering Nearly all analyses that consider a full range of solar energy benefits find that the value provided by Table 2: Categories of Benefits and Costs Included in Each Solar Energy Cost-Benefit Analysis.* Author Costs of Solar Integration Not Specified Avoided Energy Costs Avoided Capital and Capacity Investment Reduced Financial Risks Grid Resiliency Cost of Environ- mental Compliance Avoided Greenhouse Gas Emissions Economic Development Total (cents per kWh) SAIC 3.56 Xcel 8.04 CPR (Austin) 10.70 CPR (Utah) 11.60 CPR (San Antonio) 15.80 Synapse 16.90 Crossborder Energy (AZ) 23.50 CPR (NJ) 28.10 Acadia 29.06 CPR (PA) 31.90 Maine PUC 33.60 *Colored cells represent categories that were included in the solar energy cost-benefit calculation*Colored cells represent categories included in the solar energy cost-benefit calcula0on SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Roooop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey Hallock, Fron1er Group Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center, Summer 2015
- 97. A Comparison of Cost-Benefit Analyses of Solar Energy by Study and Category SHINING REWARDS, The Value of Roooop Solar Power for Consumers and Society, Lindsey Hallock, Fron1er Group Rob Sargent, Environment America Research & Policy Center, Summer 2015 Figure ES-2: A Comparison of Cost-Benefit Analyses of Solar Energy by Study and Category. when evaluating programs that compen- sate customers for the solar electricity they provide to the grid. policies, including multifamily homes or homes without out sunny roofs, by implementing virtual net metering programs. -3 2 7 12 17 22 27 32 ValueofSolar(centsperkWh) (U)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, utilities (PUC)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, public utilities commissions (O)—Studies written by, or commissioned by, non-utility organizations *Lines indicate the value of solar energy as calculated in the analysis Additional Environmental Benefits Avoided Cost of Environmental Compliance Grid Resiliency Reduced Financial Risks and Electricity Prices Avoided Capital and Capacity Investment Avoided Energy Costs Not Specified Costs of Solar Integration
- 99. and on-bill models have developed independently as a response to market demand. Figure 2: Energy Efficiency Finance Models Financing Model Energy Savings Performance Contract (ESPC) Energy Services Agreement (ESA) Managed Energy Services Agreement (MESA) Property Assessed Clean Energy (PACE) On-Bill Financing/ Repayment (OBF/OBR) Market Penetration High for MUSH; low for Commercial and Industrial Low Low Low Low Target Market Segment MUSH, Commercial, and Industrial MUSH, Commercial, and Industrial MUSH, Commercial, and Industrial Residential, Commercial Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Balance Sheet On or Off On or Off On or Off Undetermined On or Off Typical Project Size Unlimited $250,000 - $10 million $250,000 - $10 million $2,000 - $2.5 million $5,000 - $350,000 Allows for Extensive Retrofits Yes Yes Yes Yes No Repayment Method Energy savings Energy savings Energy savings Property assessments Via utility bill Security/ Collateral Depends on financing (e.g., lease or debt) Equipment Equipment Assessment Lien Equipment; Service termination Responsibility for Utility Bills ESCO or Customer Customer MESA provider Customer Customer This section describes each of these emerging models in brief and provides an assessment of the advantages and disadvantages associated with each. source: Innovations and Opportunities in Energy Efficiency Finance, White Paper, 2nd edition, May 2012, Wilson, Sonsini, Goodrich & Rosati *MUSH= Municipalities, Universities, Schools & Hospitals *
- 101. 1) There is no cost or investment up-front. PACE providers finance up to 100%, helping businesses with internal funding shortages. 2) Property owners see a posi1ve cash flow due to energy savings that lower monthly opera1ng expenses. 3) PACE assessments stay with the property if the building is sold. This allows building owners to make deep energy efficiency improvements without having to pay off the financing upon sale. Instead, the payments can transfer to a new owner. 4) There is the ability to pass payments through to tenants. PACE projects are financed using a property tax assessment. If the owner of a building has several tenants leasing the space of the building, the line item PACE payments will be paid back by the tenants through their building taxes. PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) h,p://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/upping-the-pace-for-solar
- 102. 4) At the same 1me, tenants will see cost savings on electricity bills while leasing space in that building. This allows tenant and landlord interests to align as the landlord gets the tenants to pay the bill, but the tenants get to see the cost savings. 5) PACE offers low interest rates; which tend to be in the 6-7% range, some1mes even lower if incen1ves are provided. 6) PACE-financed improvements can increase long-term property value. PACE adds a lien item to the property taxes, allowing sellers to price in the value of energy efficiency projects when a property is sold. 7) It allows customers to use their internal capital for purposes core to their business. PACE (Property Assessed Clean Energy) h,p://www.pv-tech.org/guest-blog/upping-the-pace-for-solar
- 103. 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 -100 CostofavoidingCO2 -eqemissions [$/tonCO2 -eq] 2000 2014 Solar (PV) Wind emissions has also dropped Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015 As Solar & Wind energy costs have fallen, the cost of reducing emissions has also dropped Professor Jessika Trancik, Energineering Systems, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key- charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
- 106. h,p://www.pv-tech.org/news/pv-cost-decreases-to-ensure-strong-demand-in-2016-and-beyond-energytrend
- 110. h,p://energy.gov/ar1cles/new-interac1ve-map-shows-big-poten1al-america-s-wind-energy-future Wind Vision 2050 projected growth of the wind industry over the next 35 years § 600,000+ jobs in manufacturing, installa0on, maintenance & suppor0ng services. § Save $508 billion from reduced pollutants and $280 billion in natural gas costs. § Save 260 billion gallons of water otherwise used by the electric power sector. Wind energy could support by 2050:
- 111. Fossil Nuclear Wind Solar 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Globalpowercapacity[GWp ] 20352030202520202015201020052000 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Globalpowercapacity[GWp ] 20352030202520202015201020052000 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Globalpowercapacity[GWp ] 20352030202520202015201020052000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Globalpowercapacity[GWp ] 20352030202520202015201020052000 Actual deployment 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2006 Deployment projection from International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook report ‘reference case’ scenario from year: Wind and solar energy have grown faster than expected Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
- 115. 200 150 100 50 0 Globalpowercapacity [GWp ] 2010200019901980 Year Solar (PV) deployment 100 80 60 40 20 0 Solar(PV)moduleprice [$/Wp ] 2010200019901980 Year Solar (PV) price 400 300 200 100 0 Globalpowercapacity [GWp ] 2010200019901980 Year Wind deployment 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Costofelectricity [$/MWh] 2010200019901980 Year Wind cost 12600% growth since 2000 2300% growth since 2000 86% decline since 2000 35% decline since 2000 Solar and wind energy costs have fallen as their markets have grown Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015 Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts-demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
- 116. Solar(PV)2014 w orld m inim um Solar(PV)2014 w orld average Solar(PV) 2030 projection 250 200 150 100 50 0 Costofelectricity[$/MWh] C oal2014 N aturalgas 2014 Solar (PV) + Health impacts Direct cost Opportunity for further cost decline under countries’ climate pledges (INDCs) Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 20 250 200 150 100 50 0 Costofelectricity[$/MWh] C oal2014 N aturalgas 2014 Wind + Health impacts Direct cost W ind 2030 projection W ind 2014 Report: Trancik Lab, MIT, 2015 Opportunity for further cost decline under countries’ climate pledges (INDCs) Opportunity for further cost decline under countries’ climate pledges (INDCs) 2015 best sites Jessika Trancik, MIT, Nov 29, 2015, h,p://mitei.mit.edu/publica1ons/reports-studies/12-key-charts- demonstra1ng-posi1ve-feedback-loop
- 118. h,p://repowering.org
- 121. TURE CLIMATE CHANGE DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE2921 ARTICL ↑ 16% ↑ 6% ↑ 37% ↓ 33% ↓ 61% ↓ 78% 11.76¢ 9.84¢ 11.50¢ 8.54¢ 10.21¢ 10.04¢ NEWS simulated results 8.57¢ 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 1990 2012 2030 reference Coal scenario High-cost RE Low-cost NG Mid-cost RE Mid-cost NG Low-cost RE High-cost NG 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.13 0.14 Averagecostofelectricity(2013US$kWh−1) ElectricitysectorCO2emissions(millionmetrictons) 2 | The US electricity sector CO2 emissions (left axis, bars) and levelized cost of electricity (right axis, diamonds). The blue bars are for his nd an International Energy Agency projection to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our optimization model (the values are t ge of the three years of simulations). The coal scenario is identical to the HRLG scenario, but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamon ent the levelized cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour (kWh) to consumers in 2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions re 0 levels. US electricity sector CO2 emissions (le} axis, bars) and LCOE (levelized cost of electricity) (right axis, diamonds) Future cost-compe11ve electricity systems and their impact on US CO2 emissions, Alexander E. MacDonald, Christopher T. M. Clack, et al., Nature Climate Change, Jan. 25, 2016 Blue bars are for historical data and an Interna1onal Energy Agency projec1on to 2030 (ref. 6). The green bars represent results from our op1miza1on model (the values are the average of the three years of simula1ons). The coal scenario is iden1cal to the HRLG scenario, but with the inclusion of coal plants. The red diamonds represent the levelized cost of electricity per kilowa,-hour (kWh) to consumers in 2013US$. The percentages show the change of CO2 emissions rela1ve to 1990 levels.
- 123. © 2015 Clean Edge, Inc. (www.cleanedge.com). This report, and the models and analysis contained herein, are the property of Clean Edge and may not be reproduced, published, or summarized for distribution or incorporation into a report or other document without prior approval. GETTING TO 100 FIVE MAJOR DEVELOPMENTS ENABLING THE SHIFT TO 100% DISTRIBUTED SOLAR BECOMES COST-EFFECTIVE ACROSS GEOGRAPHIES Without question, the proliferation of ever-cheaper distributed solar generation – residential, commercial, and community – is a key driver toward the 100% RE goal. Rooftop or onsite, ground-mounted solar PV arrays are a growing part of the toolkit to expand clean-energy use by individuals, large and small businesses, governments, and increasingly, even utilities themselves. The cost curves are undeniable. The plummeting prices of solar panels have been well documented, but the industry has recently been attacking balance-of-system costs and so-called soft costs (such as marketing, customer acquisition, permitting, and installation) as well. Bottom line: installed costs of solar PV systems around $3 per watt in the U.S. today will plunge some 40% to less than $2/watt by the end of 2017, according to Deutsche Bank projections. DISTRIBUTED SOLAR BECOMES COST- EFFECTIVE ACROSS GEOGRAPHIES UTILITY-SCALE RENEWABLES GROW UP ENERGY STORAGE COMPLETES THE PUZZLE NET ZERO BUILDINGS AND SMART CONNECTED DEVICES DRIVE EFFICIENCY RENAISSANCE AN EMBOLDENED, RESILIENT GRID TAKES SHAPE 1 2 3 4 5 1 Source: Clean Edge research Ge•ng to 100, A Status Report on Rising Commitments Among Corpora0ons and Governments to Reach 100% Renewables , November 2015, CleanTech, prepared for SolarCity
- 128. Fortunately, Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever Source: GTM Research/SEIA U.S. Solar Market Insight $3.60 $2.27 $1.68 $0.00 $0.50 $1.00 $1.50 $2.00 $2.50 $3.00 $3.50 $4.00 Residential Commercial Utility Q32014Bottom-UpAverageSystemPrice($/W) Modules Inverters and AC Subsystem DC Electrical BOS Structural BOS Direct Labor Engineering and PII Best-in-Class Next Wave of U.S. Solar, Shayle Kann, Sr VP, Research, Greentech Media, U.S. Solar Market Insight 2014 Solar is Cheaper to Install Than Ever
- 129. $0 $25 $50 $75 $100 $125 $150 $175 $200 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 PPAPrice($/MWh) Contract Execution Date U0lity Solar PPA Prices Now Consistently Below $70/MWh (<7 cents/kWh) GTM, Shayle Kann, The Evolu1on of the U.S. Solar Market, April 2015
- 134. 9 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov The Wind Vision Report The Benefits of Wind Energy Today The avoided CO2 emissions from wind energy today help offset the equivalent of more than 24 million passenger vehiclesKey Fact
- 135. 13 | Wind and Water Power Technologies Office eere.energy.gov The Wind Vision Report The Study Scenario $ The Wind Vision Study Scenario results in modest increases in electricity cost in the near- and mid- term (<1% price increase), but in the long term electricity costs savings of 2% are achieved by 2050 The Potential of 35% of the Country’s Electricity Coming from Wind Energy by 2050
- 140. and inverter) and “other costs” each account for about half the decline. Another period has been the steady increase in the size of installed systems, from an ave 2000 to over 6 kW in 2013. Figure 1. Average installed prices of U.S. PV systems in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W. $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 2000 price Module Inverter Other costs 2013 price InstalledPrice(2013$/W) 51% 42% $13.37 $4.77 Average installed prices of U.S. PV systems in 2000 and 2013, in real $/W Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric O’Shaughnessy, Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016
- 141. Distribu0on of installed prices forSolar PV systems installed in 2013 Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric O’Shaughnessy, Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016 Figure 2. Distribution of installed prices for systems installed in 2013. 3.2. Geographic Distribution of LP Systems Figure 3 shows the share of installations in each U.S. state that is LP (at or below the 10th
- 142. Share of systems in each state that is P10 Gray states have price data but are missing data on other characteris0cs, so they are dropped from all other analyses Characteris1cs of Low-Priced Solar Photovoltaic Systems in the United States, Gregory F. Nemet, Eric O’Shaughnessy, Ryan Wiser et al, LBNL-1004062, Jan. 2016 Figure 3. Share of systems in each state that is P10. Gray states have price data but are missing data on other characteristics, so they are dropped from all other analyses. 3.3. Installer Firms
- 154. STORAGE
- 155. 02 WHAT SERVICES CAN BATTERIES PROVIDE TO THE ELECTRICITY GRID? TABLE 1: ISO / RTO SERVICES SERVICE NAME DEFINITION Energy Arbitrage The purchase of wholesale electricity while the locational marginal price (LMP) of energy is low (typically during nighttime hours) and sale of electricity back to the wholesale market when LMPs are highest. Load following, which manages the difference between day-ahead scheduled generator output, actual generator output, and actual demand, is treated as a subset of energy arbitrage in this report. Frequency Regulation Frequency regulation is the immediate and automatic response of power to a change in locally sensed system frequency, either from a system or from elements of the system.1 Regulation is required to ensure that system-wide generation is perfectly matched with system-level load on a moment-by- moment basis to avoid system-level frequency spikes or dips, which create grid instability. Spin/Non-Spin Reserves Spinning reserve is the generation capacity that is online and able to serve load immediately in response to an unexpected contingency event, such as an unplanned generation outage. Non- spinning reserve is generation capacity that can respond to contingency events within a short period, typically less than ten minutes, but is not instantaneously available. Voltage Support Voltage regulation ensures reliable and continuous electricity flow across the power grid. Voltage on the transmission and distribution system must be maintained within an acceptable range to ensure that both real and reactive power production are matched with demand. Black Start In the event of a grid outage, black start generation assets are needed to restore operation to larger power stations in order to bring the regional grid back online. In some cases, large power stations are themselves black start capable. ISO/RTOSERVICES The other set of utility services is comprised of resource adequacy and transmission congestion relief. UTILITY SERVICES Utility services generally fall into two categories. One set of services—transmission- and distribution-system ISO / RTO SERVICES Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Hervé Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited baAeries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain Ins1tute, September 2015. <<h,p://www.rmi.org/ electricity_ba,ery_value>>
- 156. UTILITY SERVICES on-site consumption of distributed solar photovoltaics (PV), generates savings by optimizing load against a time-of-use rate, or reduces a building’s peak demand charge, it is effectively smoothing the load profile of the building where it is deployed. A smoother, less peaky load profile is much easier and less costly to match up with the output of centralized generating TABLE 2: UTILITY SERVICES SERVICE NAME DEFINITION Resource Adequacy Instead of investing in new natural gas combustion turbines to meet generation requirements during peak electricity-consumption hours, grid operators and utilities can pay for other assets, including energy storage, to incrementally defer or reduce the need for new generation capacity and minimize the risk of overinvestment in that area. Distribution Deferral Delaying, reducing the size of, or entirely avoiding utility investments in distribution system upgrades necessary to meet projected load growth on specific regions of the grid. Transmission Congestion Relief ISOs charge utilities to use congested transmission corridors during certain times of the day. Assets including energy storage can be deployed downstream of congested transmission corridors to discharge during congested periods and minimize congestion in the transmission system. Transmission Deferral Delaying, reducing the size of, or entirely avoiding utility investments in transmission system upgrades necessary to meet projected load growth on specific regions of the grid. UTILITYSERVICES 02 WHAT SERVICES CAN BATTERIES PROVIDE TO THE ELECTRICITY GRID? CUSTOMER SERVICES Customer services like bill management provide direct benefits to end users. Accordingly, the value created by these services can only be captured when storage is deployed behind the meter. Table 3 defines these customer-facing services. Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Hervé Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited baAeries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain Ins1tute, September 2015. <<h,p://www.rmi.org/ electricity_ba,ery_value>>
- 157. CUSTOMER SERVICES ROC KY MOUN TAIN INSTITUTE THE ECONOMICS OF BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE | 16 peaky load profile is much easier and less costly to match up with the output of centralized generating assets. This is why price signals such as peak demand charges and time-of-use pricing exist: to incent end users to alter their metered load profile in a way that lowers overall system production costs. TABLE 3: CUSTOMER SERVICES SERVICE NAME DEFINITION Time-of-Use Bill Management By minimizing electricity purchases during peak electricity-consumption hours when time-of-use (TOU) rates are highest and shifting these purchase to periods of lower rates, behind-the-meter customers can use energy storage systems to reduce their bill. Increased PV Self- Consumption Minimizing export of electricity generated by behind-the-meter photovoltaic (PV) systems to maximize the financial benefit of solar PV in areas with utility rate structures that are unfavorable to distributed PV (e.g., non-export tariffs). Demand Charge Reduction In the event of grid failure, energy storage paired with a local generator can provide backup power at multiple scales, ranging from second-to-second power quality maintenance for industrial operations to daily backup for residential customers. Backup Power In the event of grid failure, energy storage paired with a local generator can provide backup power at multiple scales, ranging from second-to-second power quality maintenance for industrial operations to daily backup for residential customers. CUSTOMERSERVICES these customer-facing services. The monetary value of these services flows directly to behind-the-meter customers. However, the provision of these services creates benefits for ISOs/RTOs and utilities, as well. When energy storage either maximizes Fitzgerald, Garre,, James Mandel, Jesse Morris, and Hervé Toua1. The Economics of BaAery Energy Storage: How mulH-use, customer-sited baAeries deliver the most services and value to customers and the grid. Rocky Mountain Ins1tute, September 2015. <<h,p://www.rmi.org/ electricity_ba,ery_value>>
- 158. ROC KY MOUN TAIN INSTITUTE THE ECONOMICS OF BATTERY ENERGY STORAGE | 6 behind the meter, at the distribution level, or at the transmission level. Energy storage deployed at all levels on the electricity system can add value to the grid. However, customer-sited, behind-the-meter energy the electricity system as possible when examining the economics of energy storage and analyze how those economics change depending on where energy storage is deployed on the grid. FIGURE ES2 BATTERIES CAN PROVIDE UP TO 13 SERVICES TO THREE STAKEHOLDER GROUPS ISO /RTOSERVICES CUSTOMERSERVICES UTILITY SERVICES Backup Power Increased PV Self- Consumption Demand Charge Reduction Energy Arbitrage Spin / Non-Spin Reserve Frequency Regulation Voltage Support Resource Adequacy Transmission Congestion Relief Transmission Deferral Distribution Deferral Time-of-Use Bill Management Service not possible Service not possible DISTRIBUTED TRANSMISSION DISTRIBUTION BEHIND THE METER CENTRALIZED Black Start
- 166. Interstate Natural Gas Associa1on of America asserts that more than $313 billion in mid-stream gas infrastructure (e.g., gas pipelines) will be needed by 2035. of economic activity does not bode well for energy use, leading to reduced electric load growth and lower levels of industrial production that adversely affect natural gas consumption for power generation and in the petrochemical sector. As a result, total gas use in the low-growth case is about 15 Bcfd, or about 15 percent lower than the base case. Gas use rises to roughly 91 Bcfd by 2035, versus approximately 106 Bcfd in the base case.10 Although not shown in the figure below, liquids market growth also is significantly lower in this low-growth case, and U.S. refinery runs are down modestly compared with the base case levels. U.S. and Canadian Gas Consumption (Average Annual Bcfd) 10
- 167. Interstate Natural Gas Associa1on of America asserts that more than $313 billion in mid-stream gas infrastructure (e.g., gas pipelines) will be needed by 2035. U.S. and Canadian Natural Gas Production (Average Annual Bcfd) As is the case for gas production, the growth of oil and NGL production is adversely affected by the
- 219. AWEA
- 220. 1 WIND AND WATER POWER TECHNOLOGIES OFFICE 2014 Wind Technologies Market Report: Summary Ryan Wiser & Mark Bolinger Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory August 2015
- 221. 8 • Global wind additions reached a new high in 2014 • U.S. remains a distant second to China in cumulative capacity • U.S. led the world in wind energy production in 2014 The U.S. Placed 3rd in Annual Wind Power Capacity Additions in 2014 Annual Capacity (2014, MW) Cumulative Capacity (end of 2014, MW) China 23,300 China 114,760 Germany 5,119 United States 65,877 United States 4,854 Germany 39,223 Brazil 2,783 India 22,904 India 2,315 Spain 22,665 Canada 1,871 United Kingdom 12,413 United Kingdom 1,467 Canada 9,684 Sweden 1,050 France 9,170 France 1,042 Italy 8,556 Turkey 804 Brazil 6,652 Rest of World 6,625 Rest of World 60,208 TOTAL 51,230 TOTAL 372,112 Source: Navigant; AWEA project database for U.S. capacity
- 222. 9 U.S. Lagging Other Countries in Wind As a Percentage of Electricity Consumption Note: Figure only includes the countries with the most installed wind power capacity at the end of 2014
- 223. 10 Geographic Spread of Wind Projects in the United States Is Reasonably Broad Note: Numbers within states represent cumulative installed wind capacity and, in brackets, annual additions in 2014
- 224. 11 Texas Installed the Most Capacity in 2014; 9 States Exceed 12% Wind Energy • Texas has more than twice as much wind capacity as any other state • 23 states had >500 MW of capacity at end of 2014 (16 > 1 GW, 10 > 2 GW) • 2 states have >25% of total in-state generation from wind (9 states > 12%) Installed Capacity (MW) Percentage of In-State Generation Annual (2014) Cumulative (end of 2014) Actual (2014)* Texas 1,811 Texas 14,098 Iowa 28.5% Oklahoma 648 California 5,917 South Dakota 25.3% Iowa 511 Iowa 5,688 Kansas 21.7% Michigan 368 Oklahoma 3,782 Idaho 18.3% Nebraska 277 Illinois 3,568 North Dakota 17.6% Washington 267 Oregon 3,153 Oklahoma 16.9% Colorado 261 Washington 3,075 Minnesota 15.9% North Dakota 205 Minnesota 3,035 Colorado 13.6% Indiana 201 Kansas 2,967 Oregon 12.7% California 107 Colorado 2,593 Texas 9.0% Minnesota 48 North Dakota 1,886 Wyoming 8.9% Maryland 40 New York 1,748 Maine 8.3% New Mexico 35 Indiana 1,745 New Mexico 7.0% New York 26 Michigan 1,531 California 7.0% Montana 20 Wyoming 1,410 Nebraska 6.9% South Dakota 20 Pennsylvania 1,340 Montana 6.5% Maine 9 Idaho 973 Washington 6.3% Ohio 0.9 New Mexico 812 Hawaii 5.9% Massachusetts 0.6 Nebraska 812 Illinois 5.0% South Dakota 803 Vermont 4.4% Rest of U.S. 0 Rest of U.S. 4,941 Rest of U.S. 0.9% TOTAL 4,854 TOTAL 65,877 TOTAL 4.4% * Based on 2014 wind and total generation by state from EIA’s Electric Power Monthly.
- 225. 13 Interconnection Queues Demonstrate that a Substantial Amount of Wind Is Under Consideration Wind represented 30% of capacity in sampled 35 queues But absolute amount of wind (and coal & nuclear) in sampled queues has declined in recent years whereas natural gas and solar capacity has increased Not all of this capacity will be built . • AWEA reports 13.6 GW of capacity under construction after 1Q2015
- 226. 14 Larger Amounts of Wind Planned for Texas, Midwest, Southwest Power Pool, PJM, and Northwest Not all of this capacity will be built .
- 227. 20 Imports of Wind Equipment Are Sizable; Exports Continue to Grow Slowly • Figure only includes tracked trade categories; misses other wind-related imports • See full report for the assumptions used to generate this figure U.S. is a net importer of wind equipment Exports of wind- powered generating sets increased modestly in 2014 to $488 billion; no ability to track other wind- specific exports, but total tower exports equalled $116 million 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 2006 2457 MW 2007 5253 MW 2008 8362 MW 2009 10005 MW 2010 5216 MW 2011 6820 MW 2012 13131 MW 2013 1087 MW 2014 4854 MW Billion2014$US Other wind-related equipment (est.) Wind generators (2012-2014) Wind blades and hubs (2012-2014) Towers (estimated through 2010) Wind-powered generating sets US Imports: Exports of Wind-Powered Generating Sets
- 228. 24 The Project Finance Environment Remained Strong in 2014 • Project sponsors raised $5.8 billion of tax equity (largest single-year amount on record) and $2.7 billion of debt in 2014 • Tax equity yields held steady, while debt interest rates trended lower 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Tax Equity Yield (after-tax) 15-Year Debt Interest Rate (after-tax) 15-Year Debt Interest Rate (pre-tax)
- 229. 26 Long-Term Contracted Sales to Utilities Remained the Most Common Off-Take Arrangement, but Merchant Projects Continued to Expand, at Least in Texas 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 On-Site Power Marketer Merchant/Quasi-Merchant POU IOU %ofCumulativeInstalledCapacity Merchant: 1,613 MW (33%) On-Site: 23 MW (0.5%) IOU: 2,497 MW (51%) POU: 720 MW (15%) 2014 Capacity by Off-Take Category • Recently announced wind purchases of ~2 GW from technology companies and business giants to hospitals, universities, and government agencies
- 230. 28 Turbine Nameplate Capacity, Hub Height, and Rotor Diameter Have All Increased Significantly Over the Long Term
- 231. 35 Even Controlling for These Factors, Average Capacity Factors for Projects Built After 2005 Have Been Stagnant, Averaging 32% to 35% Nationwide 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 1998-99 25 921 2000-01 27 1,760 2002-03 38 1,988 2004-05 28 3,652 2006 20 1,708 2007 37 5,282 2008 79 8,498 2009 96 9,578 2010 48 4,733 2011 68 5,917 2012 117 13,533 2013 8 969 Weighted Average (by project vintage) Individual Project (by project vintage) 2014CapacityFactor(byprojectvintage) Sample includes 591 projects totaling 58.5 GW Vintage: # projects: # MW:
- 232. 38 Controlling for Wind Resource Quality and Commercial Operation Date Demonstrates Impact of Turbine Evolution Notwithstanding build-out of lower-quality wind resource sites, turbine design changes are driving capacity factors higher for projects located in given wind resource regimes 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 1998-992000-012002-032004-05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Project Vintage Highest Wind Resource Quality Higher Wind Resource Quality Medium Wind Resource Quality Lower Wind Resource Quality Weighted-Avg.RealizedCapacityFactorin2014
- 233. 39 Regional Variations in Capacity Factors Reflect the Strength of the Wind Resource and Adoption of New Turbine Technology 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% West 32 projects 3,938 MW Northeast 15 projects 1,147 MW Great Lakes 18 projects 2,109 MW Interior 59 projects 7,253 MW Weighted Average (by region) Weighted Average (total U.S.) Individual Project (by region) 2014CapacityFactor Sample includes 124 projects built in 2012-13 and totaling 14.4 GW
- 234. 49 Wind PPA Prices Have Reached All-Time Lows, Dominated by Interior Region $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 $120 Jan-96 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 PPA Execution Date Interior (20,611 MW, 212 contracts) West (7,124 MW, 72 contracts) Great Lakes (3,620 MW, 48 contracts) Northeast (1,018 MW, 25 contracts) Southeast (268 MW, 6 contracts) LevelizedPPAPrice(2014$/MWh) 75 MW 150 MW 50 MW
- 235. 50 A Smoother Look at the Time Trend Shows Steep Decline in Pricing Since 2009; Especially Low Pricing in Interior Region $0 $10 $20 $30 $40 $50 $60 $70 $80 $90 $100 1996-99 10 553 2000-01 17 1,249 2002-03 24 1,382 2004-05 30 2,190 2006 30 2,311 2007 26 1,781 2008 39 3,465 2009 49 4,048 2010 48 4,642 2011 42 4,572 2012 14 985 2013 26 3,674 2014 13 1,768 AverageLevelizedPPAPrice(Real2014$/MWh) Nationwide Interior Great Lakes West Northeast PPA Year: Contracts: MW:
- 236. 51 Relative Competitiveness of Wind Power Improved in 2014: Comparison to Wholesale Electricity Prices • Wholesale price range reflects flat block of power across 23 pricing nodes across the U.S. • Price comparison shown here is far from perfect – see full report for caveats 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2003 9 570 2004 13 547 2005 17 1,643 2006 30 2,311 2007 26 1,781 2008 39 3,465 2009 49 4,048 2010 48 4,642 2011 42 4,572 2012 14 985 2013 26 3,674 2014 13 1,768 2014$/MWh Nationwide Wholesale Power Price Range (by calendar year) Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price (by year of PPA execution) Wind project sample includes projects with PPAs signed from 2003-2014 PPA year: Contracts: MW:
- 237. 52 Comparison Between Wholesale Prices and Wind PPA Prices Varies by Region Notes: Wind PPAs included are those signed from 2012- 2014. Within a region there are a range of wholesale prices because multiple price hubs exist in each area; price comparison shown here is far from perfect – see full report for caveats Wind PPA prices most competitive with wholesale prices in the Interior region 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Interior 37 projects 5,275 MW Great Lakes 10 projects 755 MW Northeast 1 project 69 MW West 5 projects 329 MW Total US 53 projects 6,427 MW Average 2014 Wholesale Power Price Range Individual Project Levelized Wind PPA Price Generation-Weighted Average Levelized Wind PPA Price Wind project sample includes projects with PPAs signed in 2012-2014 2014$/MWh
- 238. 53 Recent Wind Prices Are Hard to Beat: Competitive with Expected Future Cost of Burning Fuel in Natural Gas Plants Price comparison shown here is far from perfect – see full report for caveats 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Range of AEO15 gas price projections AEO15 reference case gas price projection Wind 2012 PPA execution (985 MW, 14 contracts) Wind 2013 PPA execution (3,674 MW, 26 contracts) Wind 2014 PPA execution (1,768 MW, 13 contracts) 2014$/MWh
- 239. 57 State Policies Help Direct the Location and Amount of Wind Development, but Current Policies Cannot Support Continued Growth at Recent Levels • 29 states and D.C. have mandatory RPS programs • State RPS’ can support ~4-5 GW/yr of renewable energy additions on average through 2025 (less for wind specifically) Source: Berkeley Lab NV: 25% by 2025 TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 ME: 40% by 2017 NH: 24.8% by 2025 VT: 75% by 2032 MA: 11.1% by 2009 +1%/yr RI: 16% by 2019 CT: 23% by 2020 DE: 25% by 2025 NJ: 22.5% by 2020 DC: 20% by 2020 MD: 20% by 2022 NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs), 10% by 2018 (co-ops and munis) AZ: 15% by 2025 NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops) CA: 33% by 2020 MN: 26.5% by 2025 Xcel: 31.5% by 2020 WI: 10% by 2015 IA: 105 MW by 1999 IL: 25% by 2025 MO: 15% by 2021 HI: 100% by 2045 NY: 30% by 2015 PA: 8.5% by 2020 MI: 10% by 2015 OH: 12.5% by 2026 CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) 20% by 2020 (co-ops) 10% by 2020 (munis) MT: 15% by 2015WA: 15% by 2020 OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities) 5-10% by 2025 (smaller utilities)
- 240. 58 Solid Progress on Overcoming Transmission Barriers Continued • Over 2,000 circuit miles of new transmission built in 2014; lower than 2013 but consistent with 2009-2012 • 22,000 additional circuit miles proposed by March 2017, with half having a high probability of completion • AWEA has identified 18 near-term transmission projects that – if all were completed – could carry 55-60 GW of additional wind power capacity • FERC continued to implement Order 1000, requiring public utility transmission providers to improve planning processes and determine a cost allocation methodology for new transmission investments
- 241. 59 System Operators Are Implementing Methods to Accommodate Increased Penetrations of Wind Notes: Because methods vary and a consistent set of operational impacts has not been included in each study, results from the different analyses of integration costs are not fully comparable. There has been some recent literature questioning the methods used to estimate wind integration costs and the ability to disentangle those costs explicitly, while also highlighting the fact that other generating options also impose integration challenges and costs. Integrating wind energy into power systems is manageable, but not free of additional costs $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% IntegrationCost($/MWh) Wind Penetration (Capacity Basis) APS (2007) Avista (2007) BPA (2009) [a] BPA (2011) [a] BPA (2013) CA RPS (2006) [b] ERCOT (2012) EWITS (2010) Idaho Power (2007) Idaho Power (2012) MN-MISO (2006) [c] Nebraska (2010) NorthWestern (2012) Pacificorp (2005) Pacificorp (2007) PacifiCorp (2010) PacifiCorp (2012) PacifCorp (2014) Portland GE (2011) Portland GE (2013) Puget Sound Energy (2007) SPP-SERC (2011) We Energies (2003) Xcel-MNDOC (2004) Xcel-PSCo (2006) Xcel-PSCo (2008) Xcel-PSCo (2011) [d] Xcel-UWIG (2003)
- 242. 61 Sizable Wind Additions Anticipated for 2015 & 2016; Downturn and Increased Uncertainty in 2017 and Beyond Wind additions in 2014 and anticipated additions from 2017-2020 fall below the deployment trajectory analyzed in DOE’s Wind Vision report
- 243. 62 Current Low Prices for Wind, Future Technological Advancement and New EPA Regulations May Support Higher Growth in Future, but Headwinds Include • Lack of clarity about fate of federal tax incentives • Continued low natural gas and wholesale electricity prices • Modest electricity demand growth • Limited near-term demand from state RPS policies • Inadequate transmission infrastructure in some areas • Growing competition from solar in some regions