On 13 August, 2014 in a tragic event a private plane carrying one of the Brazilian presidential candidates crashed, killing all of those on board. As a result, a popular politician who was blocked from running for President due to missing a few signatures on her application form and instead became a VP candidate, stepped into the void as a new national Presidential candidate and has transformed the election dynamics and polls. For more information connect with MSLGROUP's Latin America contact: Josh Shapiro josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com or share your feedback with us on twitter @msl_group

1. Update on Brazil’s 2014
Presidential Election
th Released September 5 , 2014

2. THE CLOUDS AND THE BRAZILIAN SKY
Few times in history has reality so coldly and cruelly
reflected philosophy. In our first analysis of Brazil’s 2014
election, we mentioned the way that former Senator and
banker Magalhães Pinto (1909-1996) famously described
politics: "politics is like the clouds, you look at them and
they appear one way. Look again and they have already
changed."
On August 13, on a cloudy, windy day, the Cessna Citation
560 XL aircraft transporting presidential candidate
Eduardo Campos (PSB) and members of his staff crashed
in a residential area in the city of Santos, located in the
state of São Paulo, killing all those aboard.
Campos, who had garnered only 8% of the vote in opinion
polls, was not a threat to the reelection of President Dilma
Rousseff (Workers Party or PT), or the efforts of
opposition candidate Aécio Neves (Brazilian Social
Democracy Party or PSDB), in the run-up to the October
5th election. However, Marina Silva (PSB), who was
standing for vice-president under Campos, does represent
such a threat. The three latest national opinion polls
confirm this.
Following the death of Campos, former senator Silva was
selected as the PSB's new Presidential candidate, with
federal representative Beto Albuquerque, from the state
of Rio Grande do Sul, standing as her vice-presidential
candidate. Albuquerque is a politician with links to
agribusiness, a long-standing member of the PSB and a
supporter of the Campos’ proposals.
Five days after the tragedy, a survey by the respected
Datafolha Institute showed that Marina Silva and her party
had leaped in the polls, capturing 21% of voting
intentions, compared with 36% for Rousseff and 20% for
Neves. Analysts attributed this to the fact that emotions
are running high, but interest in the incredible story and
poll numbers to back it up has continued to grow.
On August 26, the Ibope Institute also confirmed Silva's
strong position, calculating that she was expected to
attract 29% of the vote, compared with 34% for Rousseff.
If the elections were to go to a second round of voting,
which is almost assured at this point, the poll predicted
that Silva would win with 45% of the vote, compared to
36% for Rousseff. Neves failed to get past 19%. Another
important factor is the low level of negativity Silva attracts
at just 10%, while 18% report being opposed to Neves and
36% against Rousseff.
On August 29, new research from Datafolha further
reinforced the continued rise of Silva in the polls:
President Rousseff and Silva are now tied at 34% and
Neves with 15%. In a simulated second round, Silva would
win with 50% of the vote to President Rousseff's 40%.
WHO IS MARINA SILVA?
political career in the 1980s working alongside Chico
Mendes, a leader of the rubber tappers in the region.
Silva joined the Workers Part or PT, becoming first a city
counselor and state representative and eventually a
senator in 1994, winning reelection in 2002. Her main
achievement in the capitol of Brasilia was including Brazil
in efforts to achieve greenhouse gas emission reduction
targets and she found herself lining up against sectors
linked to agribusiness. She was appointed Minister of the
Environment in 2003 following Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's
election as President and maintained her cordial
relationship with the new administration. She remained a
member of the cabinet for five years and managed to
reduce deforestation and the extent of agricultural
advances onto indigenous land.
Maria Osmarina Marina Silva Vaz de Lima is a black
evangelical Christian, a mother to four children, and
suffers from frequent health issues. She is internationally
known for her stance on the environment, and has a vision
for Brazilian development that balances advances in
agriculture and hydropower with equivalent social and
environmental measures and is widely considered to be
conservative in her approach.
She was born in 1958 in Rio Branco, the capital city of the
state of Acre, an Amazon region on the border with Bolivia
and still one of Brazil's poorest and most underprivileged
regions. She comes from a poor family that worked as
rubber tappers and was illiterate until the age of 16. She
grew up working as a maid and contracted tropical
diseases from which she still suffers today. She began her

3. WHAT TO EXPECT FROM MARINA SILVA
Based on recent poll results, the average Brazilian voter
does not currently see any contradictions in Marina Silva's
positions or have concerns about the issues mentioned by
her adversaries. Analysts expect President Rousseff and
Neves to use some of their free-to-air party political
broadcasting time on radio and TV, which began on
August 19 and runs until October 2, to attack the
candidate as she makes significant gains in the polls.
In the area of campaign advertising, the former senator is
at a disadvantage – President Rousseff enjoys 22 minutes
and 48 seconds of air time daily, Neves has 9 minutes and
10 seconds, while Silva has just 4 minutes and 6 seconds.
The airtime is determined by a law that links it to the
parties share of representatives in congress in Brazil.
The former senator's campaign is therefore expected to
make widespread use of social media like Facebook and
Twitter, which are the most popular social networks in
Brazil, in order to promote her proposals. In an article
published in the “Valor Econômico” newspaper, political
Brazil
2014
Today, some of the attacks from her detractors are focused
on the relationship between her campaign staff and Maria
Alice Setubal, known as “Neca,” one of the heirs to the
Itaú-Unibanco financial conglomerate, which is Latin
America's largest privately held bank. On economic
issues, she has developed a relationship with market-oriented
economists who are critical of state intervention,
such as Andre Lara Resende (former chairman of the
BNDES during the Fernando Henrique Cardoso
administration), Eliana Cardoso (formerly of the World
Bank) and Eduardo Giannetti da Fonseca, who is noted in
academic circles for his liberal ideas. Internally, she also
faces resistance from elements in the PSB party which
believe that her political background is not compatible
with the policies supported by Campos.
scientist Alberto Carlos de Almeida pointed out the
difficulties that Marina Silva's adversaries will have in
undermining her, given her humble background and life
story, with the author referring to her as "Lula in a skirt."
In 2010, the 19.6 million votes Marina Silva received
during her first candidacy for President came from voters
who were unhappy with the PT and PSDB parties, mainly
from younger sections of the population. During those
elections, people did not push her for specifics of her
economic proposals, which now could be critical for the
candidates since Brazil’s economy is on the verge of being
labeled as in recession and may end the year at less than
1% growth, together with inflation at more than 6%.
In an interview published in the “Folha de São Paulo”
newspaper, economist Giannetti da Fonseca, a close
advisor to Silva, admitted that the three pillars of the
current economic policy – a floating exchange rate,
inflation targets and fiscal discipline – will be maintained,
and he also voiced support for an independent Central
However, during President Lula's second term, she started
to find it more difficult to enact her proposals because of
the administration’s liberal energy policies, which focused
on building new hydroelectric power stations in the
Amazon region in areas occupied by indigenous people
and subsistence farmers. She stepped down as minister in
2008 in protest and distanced herself from the PT,
canceling her membership the following year.
Both inside and outside the government, she has always
been internationally recognized for her stance on
environmental issues. She received the "2007 Champions
of the Earth" award from the UN, the Duke of Edinburgh
medal from the WWF and, during the London Olympics,
she carried the Olympic flag during the opening ceremony
alongside UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
After leaving the PT, she was challenged by
left-wing groups because of her conservative positions.
For example, she is against decriminalizing abortion. She
was also attacked for her alliances with representatives of
Brazil's financial elite. In 2010, her running mate was
businessman Guilherme Leal, owner of the Natura
cosmetics company, who is ranked 29th on the Forbes list
of Brazilian billionaires, with a fortune worth $1.8 billion.
However, his company is one of the most committed
businesses to sustainable development in Brazil.

4. Bank. In the run-up to the elections, the candidate's
economic team will be holding meetings with various
business groups, particularly Brazilian and foreign
investors, to explain Silva's proposals for tax and
administrative reforms. The biggest challenge is
If Marina Silva's rise in the opinion polls continues and
she faces President Rousseff in the second round
election, scheduled for October 26th, the polls show that
Brazilian voting traditions may change radically. Since
1989, when direct elections for the Brazilian presidency
were reinstated, the winner has always been the person
leading the polls at the beginning of the free political
advertising broadcast season, which just started. Though
slipping in the polls, Neves could still be a wildcard, as he
has significant support in populous states including São
Paulo, Minas Gerais and Paraná. However, when looking at
the sentiments today most believe the the possibility of
Silva losing support and Neves rising in the polls, which
was probable prior to Campos' death, is remote. Even
though this could happen, Neves' economic proposals do
not differ significantly from those presented by Marina
Silva's team, as Neves' economic coordinator is economist
Armínio Fraga, a former chairman of the Brazilian Central
Bank and a staunch supporter of the market economy.
As far as president Rousseff is concerned, she is expected
to try and further strengthen her support among the
Analysis by:
assuaging concerns in the agriculture sector, especially
among livestock breeders and soybean growers, about the
candidate's position, which is to respect the law and abide
by any outstanding commitments.
Paulo Andreoli, Chairman MSLGROUP Latin America and
Roseli Loturco, Public Affairs Consultant, Publicis Consultants Brasil
MSLGROUP Latin America contact:
Josh Shapiro, josh.shapiro@mslgroup.com
poorer sections of society that benefit from social support
programs like the national “bolsa familia” (Family
Benefit) that provides monthly payments to low income
families. The PT is particularly concerned about Marina
Silva's growth in regions such as São Paulo and the
Federal District, where the former minister has already
overtaken President Rousseff in the polls.
With these developments, one can clearly see how the
clouds have shifted in Brazil's Presidential election this
October. The wind is clearly blowing in favor of Marina
Silva. With the exception of agribusiness, the positive
reaction from the business community and financial
markets to Silva's recent public statements can only help
further. If these trends continue, Silvia will easily force a
second round vote with President Rousseff with broad
support to challenge the status quo in the country. With a
Silva administration, some are predicting a "new way" in
Brazil's political dynamic, breaking the current power
struggle that has been unfolding for the last 20 years
between the PT and PSDB parties.
FINAL THOUGHTS