The UK election is a week away and there is no clear victor in sight. The opinion polls show a dead heat between the Conservatives and Labour, with SNP support soaring in Scotland and UKIP support holding in England. Our first instalment on the UK election looked at the main political parties and the challenges likely to face them during and after the election. This second instalment looks at the election to date, at some of the policies on offer, and attempts to predict an outcome. Andrew MacDougall, our Senior Executive Consultant at MSLGROUP UK and former Director of Communications to Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper, sees a route to minority government for Prime Minster David Cameron.

1. Betting
on a lonely
British
minority

2. No matter the result, the party
with the most seats come the
morning of May 8 will face a
challenge finding a combination
that will produce a stable
governing coalition.

3. 03
Betting on a lonely
British minority
Andrew MacDougall
Senior Executive Consultant
This is the second instalment of a planned 3-part series on
the British election. Click here to read the first instalment.
We’re three weeks into the British election and we’re
no closer to knowing the outcome. Nothing the party
leaders are doing on the campaign trail – speeches,
debates, or manifesto launches – has been able to
move the dial; Britain’s main parties – Conservatives
and Labour – remain stuck at around 33% per cent
support. Barring an unforeseen event, Britain is heading
towards another hung parliament.
A hung parliament isn’t necessarily a recipe for
instability. As the past five years have demonstrated,
Westminster can function just fine in a coalition. In 2010
it was the Liberal Democrats who led the insurgency
that resulted in a governing coalition; this time, it’s the
Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) and United Kingdom
Independence Party (UKIP) who are storming the
electoral barricades. This has profound implications
given the former’s antipathy to the United Kingdom
and the latter’s hostility towards the European Union.
The flourishing of multi-party democracy will be the
legacy of this election. For most of the 20th century
Britain’s first-past-the-post electoral system produced
either strong Tory or Labour majorities. The 21st
century could witness the birth of proportional
representation or other significant electoral reform to
better reflect this surge in “minority” party support.

4. 04
Betting on a lonely
British minority
The SNP are laying waste to Labour’s base north of
Hadrian’s wall and taking a few high-profile Liberal
Democrat scalps to boot, while Nigel Farage’s Kippers
are eating into Tory support in the south of England.
With only 4% of the United Kingdom’s population
potentially translating into 12% of its seats, Nicola
Sturgeon’s SNP could be left holding the whip hand on
the union, a nightmare scenario to be sure. And while
UKIP might not win more than a few seats, its support
means that Prime Minister David Cameron will likely
see his chances of an outright majority evaporate.
Why haven’t the major parties been able to see off the
challenges from the fringes? In many ways they are
reaping the reward of a generation’s worth of trends.
Both New Labour and the Conservatives have tacked
to the centre over the past two decades, blurring the
policy boundaries and shedding traditional supporters.
Where those supporters had no other option in past
years, they can now bed down with the new “outsider”
parties. And while Miliband has led his troops back
to a more leftish flank, many core supporters –
particularly in Scotland – feel abandoned by the
Labour Party. Likewise, the segment of the Tory base
that has always been mistrustful of Europe and the
wider world has found a champion in UKIP.

5. 05
Betting on a lonely
British minority
Armed with predictable messages and platform
planks, neither Labour nor the Conservatives have
reached out to new voter groups. For months the
Tories have campaigned on their long-term economic
plan, while Labour has made it clear they would
campaign on social programs like the NHS.
What they’ve failed to recognise is that their core
supporters who value them on either file have
already slotted in their votes. They need to appeal
to a new demographic.
The launch of the party manifestos this week was
meant to address this gap. Labour donned Tory
clothing and pledged to the party of fiscal rectitude,
and Cameron dipped into his empty treasury
cupboards to dig up another 8 billion pounds for the
health service. Time will tell if voters viewed these
promises as genuine appeals outside of party comfort
zones or as situationally convenient dips into an
opponent’s pool in search of late-stage votes.
It would be wrong, however, to discount party
manifestoes entirely. Despite their quaintness they
still provide the clearest distillation of each party’s
intentions. Just how much of each manifesto would
survive coalition negotiations is another matter.
More on this later.
On tax and finance, the Conservatives are pledging
to raise the income tax threshold to £12,500 whilst
Labour plans to reintroduce the 10p income tax rate
for the lowest earners.

6. 06
Betting on a lonely
British minority
While the Tories would keep the highest rate at 45p,
Labour will re-introduce the 50p band. On government
spending plans there is a significant difference, with
the Conservatives planning on eliminating the deficit
on both current and capital spending, and Labour
planning to reduce only the former. Labour have
instead opted to raise revenue (to finance the NHS)
through a new mansion tax and eliminate the
antiquated ‘non-dom’ status. The differences in
approach have left the Tories open to attacks over
savage cuts, while Labour has been accused of
plotting to raise taxes after the election.
On matters of national defence there is little to
separate the two major parties. Both Labour and
the Conservatives have pledged to replace Britain’s
nuclear deterrent, while avoiding a commitment to
keep defence spending at the 2% of GDP level
advocated by NATO. Indeed, only UKIP has pledged
to meet that particular target, to be funded by
effectively cancelling Britain’s foreign aid budget.
There is also a stark dividing line on Europe. Labour
have said they will not countenance a referendum
on Britain’s relationship with the European Union,
with David Cameron pledging that a Conservative
government would give Britons a say on the EU by
2017. While both parties are committed to the union
of the United Kingdom, only David Cameron has
ruled out working with the SNP at Westminster.

7. 07
Betting on a lonely
British minority
Only Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg has
positioned his manifesto as a platform for coalition
government. He has pledged to cut more than Labour,
but less than the Conservatives, positioning himself
as the heart of another Lib Dem-Conservative coalition
or the head in a potential tie up with Labour.
As mentioned, just how much of any particular
manifesto will make it into a coalition government
platform is an open question. Both Labour and the
Tories have avoided drawing any red lines under
policy proposals, lest they admit their much-desired
majority is no longer a possibility. Whatever the
particulars, it is certain that coalition negotiations
will require significant horse-trading.
Barring a significant shift in the polls it appears
unlikely that any party will:
1) win an outright majority, or
2) be able to form a stable two-party coalition.
Despite their shared social-democratic leanings,
Ed Miliband knows that a government with
the SNP would be toxic to Labour in England.
David Cameron is equally loath to rely on
Nigel Farage and UKIP.
There is another route, however. If David Cameron is
elected with the most seats and no obvious coalition
partner, and if Labour plus the SNP isn’t able to form
a government, there might be an opportunity for
Cameron to govern as a minority.

8. 08
Betting on a lonely
British minority
While this hasn’t been British tradition, a number of
factors could help to make it a reality. First, if Miliband
fails to win the most seats there will be enormous
pressure from within the partyto replace him. Likewise
for Nick Clegg if the Liberal Democrats are indeed
slaughtered as expected. Even Nigel Farage has said
he would step down if he fails to carry his own seat,
which is a possibility.
Faced with leaderless opposition parties with empty
party coffers, Cameron could open up a few years of
smooth Parliamentary sailing. His fixed term elections
act also requires a super-majority in the House of
Commons to trigger new elections. What are the odds
all of the opposition parties in a minority Parliament
would be feeling their oats at the same time? Other
Westminster parliaments, particularly Canada’s,
provide relevant examples for Cameron.
Keeping his restive backbenches in line has never
been his strong suit. When presented with the
alternative, however, even they could be convinced
that a lonely British minority would be a preferable
course of action.
With two weeks left until Election Day there is
everything to play for. I’m placing my bet on a minority
government led by David Cameron.
To discuss the election and what it means for your
business, please contact: @AGMacDougall.

9. 09
About
MSLGROUP
We are MSLGROUP in the UK.
We’re a communications agency with digital, insight and creativity
at its heart. We help some of the world’s leading employers to build
and protect their reputations and relationships – inside and outside
their organisations. Our clients include Associated British Foods,
BG Group, BMW, BP, EY, Canon and GSK.
We help organisations around the world to deliver their business
and people strategies by understanding, attracting, recruiting,
engaging and retaining top talent. Our works spans the entire
‘Employee Lifecycle’ from EVP development to attraction and
engagement. Our teams combine expertise in consultancy,
insight and strategy development to activation – including
creative, writing, digital and technical development.
As part of the global MSLGROUP network we have more than
3,500 colleagues worldwide. MSLGROUP is Publicis Groupe’s
strategic communications and engagement business, advising
clients on all aspects of their multi-stakeholder communications.
Find out more at mslgroup.co.uk or by contacting Victoria Sugg
victoria.sugg@mslgroup.com

10. Victoria Sugg
Business Development Director
—
victoria.sugg@mslgroup.com
+44 (0)7950 821 272
mslgroup.co.uk
Be interested.
Be interesting.
Be influential.