Was bedeutet Paris für die Energiewende in Deutschland?
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Vortrag beim 11. Deutschen Energiekongress in München am 7. September
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Was bedeutet Paris für die Energiewende in Deutschland?
- 1. 11. Deutscher Energiekongress - Energiewirtschaft im Wandel – Kann sich die Branche neu erfinden? 6. und 7. September 2016 in München (Hilton Munich Park) Prof. Dr. Niklas Höhne, n.hoehne@newclimate.org Was bedeutet Paris für den Klimaschutz und die Energiewende?
- 2. Ergebnisse von Paris Auswirkungen auf den Fahrplan der deutschen Energiewende Fazit www.newclimate.org 2 Inhalt
- 3. Global 1,5/2°C: Temperaturanstieg auf „weit unter 2°C“ begrenzen und „Anstrengungen unternehmen“, ihn auf 1,5°C zu begrenzen Ausstieg aus Treibhausgasemissionen: Globale Emissionen sollen in der zweiten Hälfte des Jahrhunderts Netto-Null erreichen National Nationale Beiträge: Alle Länder reichen regelmäßig nationale Beiträge ein Steigerung: Beiträge werden sukzessive erhöht bis die globalen Ziele erreicht sind www.newclimate.org 3 Ambition von Paris
- 4. www.newclimate.org 4 Country assessments Gambia Bhutan Costa Rica
- 5. Nationale Beiträge reichen nicht aus Source: Climate Action Tracker update, 8 December 2015 http://climateactiontracker.org/news/253/Climate-pledges-will-bring-2.7C-of-warming-potential-for-more-action.html Su Con 185 IND imp aro a lik res IND full war disc glo only 0.4% of global emissio global emissions as “mediu Conditional elements of IN 1.5 and 2°Cby roughly 2.8 G Taking into consideration more ambitious (4.6-7.8 Gt benefits. For limiting warm be closed by 20-34%. 5
- 6. Globaler Klimaschutz weltweit erhält durch Paris Schub (Fast) alle Länder der Welt haben Beiträge für Pariser Abkommen vorgelegt - ein Durchbruch in den internationalen Klimaverhandlungen Unternehmen setzen auf Klimaschutz: • 2500 Unternehmen und Investoren haben sich Klimaschutzziele gesetzt • 614 Unternehmen haben Ziele die 1.5/2°C kompatibel sind o 100% erneuerbare Energie: Coca Cola, IKEA, Microsoft, Nike, Unilever,... Städte und Regionen haben sich Klimaschutzziele gesetzt • >2500 Städte • 167 Regionen (Schottland: 100% erneuerbare Energien bis 2020) www.newclimate.org 6
- 7. Globale Initiativen sind vielfältig und zum Teil ambitioniert 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Emissions(GtCO2e/a) Year CP min CP max initiatives min initiatives max INDC 2025 INDC 2030 SunShot Initiative US Wind Program SEII EWI GFEI UIC SEAD GBPN C40 Under 2 MOU GCFTF Bonn Challenge / NYD GACC GMI CCAC RE100 Caring for Climate Power Transport Buildings Cities / regions Forestry Non-CO2 Business Quelle: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/ www.newclimate.org
- 8. Globale Initiativen sind vielfältig und zum Teil ambitioniert 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Emissions(GtCO2e/a) Year CP min CP max initiatives min initiatives max INDC 2025 INDC 2030 SunShot Initiative US Wind Program SEII EWI GFEI UIC SEAD GBPN C40 Under 2 MOU GCFTF Bonn Challenge / NYD GACC GMI CCAC RE100 Caring for Climate Power Transport Buildings Cities / regions Forestry Non-CO2 Business 9 GtCO2e Wenn die Initiativen ihr Ziel erreichen und nicht Anstrengungen anderswo ersetzen Quelle: Graichen, Healy, Siemons, Höhne, Kuramochi, Gonzales-Zuñiga, Sterl, Kersting, Wachsmuth, 2016: Climate initiatives, national contributions and the Paris Agreement: https://newclimate.org/2016/05/23/climate-initiatives-national-contributions-and-the-paris-agreement/ www.newclimate.org
- 9. Ergebnisse von Paris Auswirkungen auf den Fahrplan der deutschen Energiewende Fazit www.newclimate.org 9 Inhalt
- 10. Beispielhaftes 2°C Szenario www.newclimate.org 10 0 10 20 30 40 50 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 GlobaleTHGEmissioneninGtCO2e CO2 aus Energienutzung und Industrie CO2 aus Wald und Böden Nicht-CO2 Datenquelle: Markerszenario RCP 2.6 vom IPCC, RCP scenario database http://tntcat.iiasa.ac.at:8787/RcpDb/dsd?Action=htmlpage&page=download
- 11. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas- Emissionen null erreichen www.newclimate.org 11 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THG Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil Wahrscheinliches Eintreten des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 2°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THGMittlere Chance des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 1,5°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/
- 12. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas- Emissionen null erreichen www.newclimate.org 12 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THG Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil Wahrscheinliches Eintreten des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 2°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THGMittlere Chance des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 1,5°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/ *: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwritschaft *
- 13. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas- Emissionen null erreichen www.newclimate.org 13 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THG Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil Wahrscheinliches Eintreten des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 2°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THGMittlere Chance des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 1,5°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/ *: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwirtschaft * *
- 14. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas- Emissionen null erreichen www.newclimate.org 14 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THG Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil Wahrscheinliches Eintreten des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 2°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THGMittlere Chance des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 1,5°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/ *: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwirtschaft * * Paris-konform ohne negative Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C 2°C
- 15. Zeitpunkt an dem globale Treibhausgas- Emissionen null erreichen www.newclimate.org 15 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THG Median25. Perzentil 75. Perzentil Wahrscheinliches Eintreten des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 2°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen CO2 aus Energienutzung Alle THGMittlere Chance des Temperatur- anstiegs unter 1,5°C Szenarien mit negativen Emissionen CO2 Budget ohne negative Emissionen Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/ *: Gilt für Emissionen aus Energienutzung, Industrie sowie Land- und Forstwirtschaft * * Paris-konform ohne negative Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C 2°C Paris-konform mit negativen Emissionen1.5°C Weit unter 2°C 2°C
- 16. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 AnteilderErneuerbarenam Primärenergieverbrauch(%) Jahr Greenpeace BMU Leitszenario WWF Innovationsszenario Aktuelle-Politik-Szenario Energiewende-Szenario Deep Decarbonisation Pathway Project 1,5°C Anforderung Anteil der erneuerbaren Energien am Energiemix in Deutschand www.newclimate.org 16 Ziele der Regierung: 30% bis 2030 45% bis 2040 60% bis 2050 Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/ Global Paris-konform ohne negative Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C Global Paris-konform mit negativen Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C
- 17. Anteil der erneuerbaren Energien am Strommix in Deutschand www.newclimate.org 17 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 AnteilderErneuerbarenanderStromerzeugung(%) Jahr Greenpeace BMU Leitszenario WWF Innovationszenario Aktuelle-Politik-Szenario Energiewende-Szenario Deep Decarbonisation Pathway Project 1,5°C Anforderung Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/ Ziele der Regierung: 50% bis 2030 65% bis 2040 80% bis 2050 Global Paris-konform ohne negative Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C Global Paris-konform mit negativen Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C
- 18. Anteil der Kohle an der Stromerzeugung in Deutschand www.newclimate.org 18 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 AnteilvonKohle(ohneCCS)ander Stromproduktion(%) Jahr Greenpeace BMU Leitszenario WWF Innovationszenario Aktuelle-Politik-Szenario Energiewende-Szenario Deep Decarbonisation Pathway Project 1,5°C Anforderung Quelle: http://newclimate.org/2016/02/23/what-does-the-paris-agreement-mean-for-climate-protection-in-germany/ Global Paris-konform ohne negative Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C Global Paris-konform mit negativen Emissionen 1.5°C Weit unter 2°C
- 19. Mobilität Deutschland weit hinter den Anforderungen zurück Andere Länder sind ambitionierter • Norwegen und Niederlande streben 100% Elektroauto- Neuanmeldungen ab 2025 an • China und USA setzen hohe Förderungen für Elektroautos um www.newclimate.org 19 Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator Ziel der Bundesregierung Herausforderung 2°C Ziel Herausforderung 1.5°C Ziel nach Pariser Abkommen Mobilität Verkehrsvermeidung und -verlagerung: Reduktion des Individualverkehrs ./. (Individualverkehr nimmt zu) Reduktion des Individualverkehrs spätestens ab 2015- 2030 Reduktion des Individualverkehrs um etwa 10% pro Dekade Anteil an PKW ohne Verbrennungsmotor, z.B. Elektromotor 6 Mio in 2030 = etwa 14% 23% in 2030 100% in 2050 - 2060 100% vor 2035, d.h. 100% Neuanmeldungen ab 2025
- 20. Gebäude 25 Aug 2016 www.newclimate.org 20 Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator Ziel der Bundesregierung Herausforderung 2°C Ziel Herausforderung 1.5°C Ziel nach Pariser Abkommen Gebäude Jährliche Rate für energetische Sanierung von Gebäuden 1% 2%-3,5% 5% 100% „Nahe Null-Energiehäuser“ im Neubau ab 2020 Erheblich schnellere energetischer Sanierung nötig
- 21. Ergebnisse von Paris Auswirkungen auf den Fahrplan der deutschen Energiewende Fazit www.newclimate.org 21 Inhalt
- 22. Fazit Um die Ziele von Paris einzuhalten, müsste die deutsche Energiewende erheblich beschleunigt werden: • Null CO2-Emissionen vor dem Jahr 2035 (strikte Auslegung) oder vor 2055/65 (großzügige Auslegung mit Wette auf Entfernung von CO2 aus der Atmosphäre) • Schnellerer Ausbau von erneuerbaren Energien als derzeit geplant • Schnellerer Ausbau der Elektromobilität als bisher geplant (in strikter Auslegung keine Neuanmeldung von PKW mit Verbrennungsmotoren ab 2025) • Erheblich schnellere energetische Sanierung des Gebäudebestands Globaler Klimaschutz hat auf allen Ebenen durch Paris neuen Schub erhalten Deutschland/EU läuft Gefahr, Vorreiterrolle zu verlieren www.newclimate.org 22
- 24. Herausforderung für Deutschand 07/09/2016 www.newclimate.org 24 Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator Ziel der Bundesregierung Herausforderung 2°C Ziel Herausforderung 1.5°C Ziel nach Pariser Abkommen Treibhausgasemissionen aus Energienutzung Zeitpunkt zu dem Emissionen aus Energienutzung null erreichen müssen ./. 2050-2060 vor 2035 Erneuerbare Energien Anteil der erneuerbaren Energien am Gesamtenergiemix 30% bis 2030 45% bis 2040 60% bis 2050 100% in 2050 bis 2060 100% vor 2035 Anteil der erneuerbaren Energien am Strommix 50% bis 2030 65% bis 2040 80% bis 2050 100% bis 2050 100% vor 2030 Stromerzeugung mit fossilen Brennstoffen Zeitpunkt zu dem Emissionen aus Kohleverstromung null erreichen müssen ./. 2040 / 2050 etwa 2025 Zeitpunkt zu dem Emissionen aus Stromerzeugung aus Erdgas null erreichen müssen ./. 2050 vor 2030
- 25. Herausforderung für Deutschand 07/09/2016 www.newclimate.org 25 Themenbereich / Sektor Indikator Ziel der Bundesregierung Herausforderung 2°C Ziel Herausforderung 1.5°C Ziel nach Pariser Abkommen Mobilität Verkehrsvermeidung und -verlagerung: Reduktion des Individualverkehrs ./. (Individualverkehr nimmt zu) Reduktion des Individualverkehrs spätestens ab 2015- 2030 Reduktion des Individualverkehrs um etwa 10% pro Dekade Anteil an PKW ohne Verbrennungsmotor, z.B. Elektromotor 6 Mio in 2030 = etwa 14% 23% in 2030 100% in 2050 - 2060 100% vor 2035 Gebäude Jährliche Rate für energetische Sanierung von Gebäuden 1% 2%-3,5% 5% Industrie Zeitpunkt zu dem Emissionen aus Energienutzung null erreichen müssen ./. 2050-2060 vor 2035 Land- und Forstwirtschaft Reduktion der Netto-Emissionen auf ein technisch mögliches Minimum
- 26. Timing of zero emissions Source: http://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/105007/pdf
- 27. Necessary reductions presented in IPCC report 2007 influenced national target setting Table explained in • den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2008. Reductions of greenhouse gas emissions in Annex I and non-Annex I countries for meeting concentration stabilisation targets. An editorial comment. Climatic Change, 91, 249–274. • den Elzen, M.G. J., Höhne, N., 2010. Sharing the reduction effort to limit global warming to 2°C. Climate Policy, 10, 247– 260. EU: -80% to -95% Germany: -80% to -95% USA: -80% Japan: -25% (repealed) Norway: -40% (conditional) NL: court case
- 28. Determining future GHG emission reduction targets Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.
- 29. Suggested targets in 2030 compatible with 2°C Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.28. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147.
- 30. Suggested targets in 2050 Source: IPCC AR5 WGIII, figure 6.29. Based on Höhne, N., Den Elzen, M., & Escalante, D. (2014). Regional GHG reduction targets based on effort sharing: a comparison of studies. Climate Policy, 14(1), 122-147. -80% to -95% for 2°C -90% to -100% for 1.5°C
Hinweis der Redaktion
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.
- This slide shows how different gases from different sources must be reduced to keep to 2 degree compatible pathways. This default representation of the IPCC’s RCP 2.6 scenario assumes that some non-CO2 emissions and emissions from forestry would not be phased out by 2100 because that is technically not feasible or would be far more costly. For example, it is very difficult to reduce methane emissions from animals and rice fields to zero . This means that emissions of CO2 from fossil fuels must be reduced earlier. In this representation CO2 emissions from fossil fuels reach zero at around 2070 and are then assumed to be negative (i.e. taking CO2 out of the atmosphere). CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry cannot be compensated for by a phase out from forestry– both must reduce at the same time. Non-CO2 gases means the following gases methane (CH4), Nitrous Oxide (N2O) and fluorinated gases While more research is needed, existing scenarios show that it is technically and economically feasible to reduce emissions to zero for roughly 90% of current sources of GHG emissions with technological options that are available today and in the near future. A nearly complete phase-out of net emissions by 2050 is possible with additional innovation and offsetting residual emissions by sinks. A net phase-out by 2050 would ensure a very high likelihood of meeting the agreed 2°C goal and a 50% chance of staying below 1.5°C by the end of the century. The energy system represents the largest source of emissions, but CO2 emissions can also arise from other sources, primarily from human use of land and land use change. This includes carbon emissions from deforestation and, to a smaller degree, agriculture.