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Seng Heng Bank – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics

                誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心


投資新思維       
                         刊登日期 :二零零八年三月二十四日(市民日報)


             作者為誠興銀行投資及風險研究中心分析師黃碩東



                           衍生工具之運用


     由於美國次按風暴繼續擴散,加上市場擔心因國內通脹高企政府會加大宏
調力度,令港股近期只有波幅,沒升幅。在這樣的市況中突顯了風險控制的重要
性,本文將簡單介紹不同的金融衍生工具及如何適當運用以減低風險。



期指



     衍生工具的特性是其價格是取決予與其掛鈎的資產。一般人聽到衍生工具
這字便會聯想到高風險。這可能是由於過往有很多談及金融市場的電視劇,那些
抄賣衍生工具的主角大多數都會落得破產或跳樓的下場。而劇中主角所運用的衍
生工具大多數是恆生指數期貨(FUTURES)。期指的特性是槓桿比率大,以恆指
期貨為例,合約為$50一點,以恆指22,000點計算,一張合約為$1,000,000。港
交所將會在有需要時調整合約按金,例如現時波幅巨大,買/賣家需以$175,000
作為按金才可買入/沽出一張合約,槓桿比率約為6倍,即指數上升/下跌1%,
買家便會賺取/損失6%的本金(買入合約)。因為期指操作簡單,而看對市況
時可於短時間內獲得巨利,所以吸引不少投機者的參與,但最終能在期指市場上
獲利的有多少?單邊買賣期指實與賭博無異,由於其槓桿效應,當參與者看錯方
向時,需要承受極大的心理壓力。於1995年,歷史悠久的英國霸菱銀行就是
因為其交易員Nick Leeson抄輸期指而令銀行破產,而近期法興銀行交易員也是違
規抄輸期指而令銀行錄得巨大損失。期指除了用於投機外,適當運用其實是可用
來減低組合風險的。只要計算出組合的Beta,便可以沽出適量的期指達至對沖的
作用。簡單說即當組合股票下跌時,已沽出期指之盈利便可令組合損失減少。這
方法多數用於大型之基金,由於其組合龐大,大量沽出某隻股票可能會大幅推低
股價,加上沽出期指之手續費較沽出股票為便宜,所以當基金於短期看淡後市時,
就可能會使用以上策略減低風險。




     Seng Heng Bank – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics

                誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心



                                       圖一 買入認購期權盈虧圖

期權



     另一較為人熟
悉的衍生工具是期權
                                        行使價
(Options)。期權可
                                              打和點
分為四類,即買入/            期權金

賣出認購期權,及買
入/賣出認沽期權,
其價格通常會以
Black-Scholes 計價模
式來計算。



     期權與期指的最大分別為若所掛鈎股票價格不變,期權的價格會受時間值
的損耗而減少。以股票期權為例,買入期權者需要付期權金給賣家,而買家有權
利於指定之行使價購入股票,但沒有義務去行使。圖一為一個買入認購期權的盈
虧圖,圖中可見,到期時若股價低於行使價的話,買家便不會行使期權(因可在
市場上以更低的價格購入),損失已付出的期權金(最大虧損)。當股價高於行
使價時,買家便會行使其權利,已一個較市價為低的價錢向賣家購入股票,所以
如股票於到期前大幅上升的話,持有認購期權者則可以獲取巨利(以行使價買入,
以市價賣出),而這利潤則正正是沽出認購期權者的損失,所以期權又名為零和
遊戲。這樣看來持有認購期權者的風險只是有限(期權金),回報卻是無限,但
沽出者卻是相反,風險無限回報有限,那誰會沽出?期權有趣之地方是當參與者
把不同之期權組合起來時,其盈虧圖便會有所不同。圖二是一個手持正股+沽出
認購期權組合之盈虧圖。沽出認購期權的無限風險已被手持的正股所抵消,所以
如到期時股價低於行使價,期權金便袋袋平安,若股價高於行使價,只需要將股
票以行使價賣給期權買方便成。這策略十分適合手持正股而短期看淡的投資者,
因為可獲得期權金之收益。




  Seng Heng Bank – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics

             誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心
圖二 正股+沽出認購期權盈虧圖


                               只買正股




            打和點:買入
            股價-期權金


                     行使價




認股証



   對於有買賣港股之投資者應該不會對認股証陌生,其實認股証即是期權,
但認股証投資者只可買入認購期權或認沽期權,賣出方為發行商。而認股証到期
時是以現金結算的,並不如期權般交收股票 。如上文所說沽方會承擔無限風險,
所以其實發行商是會買入正股作對沖之用。說到認股証便不能不題及引伸波幅。
引伸波幅是決定認股証(或期權)之價格的重要原素,在其他數值相同之情況下,
引伸波幅越高即代表認股証越貴。從圖三可見恆指的歷史與引伸波幅, 通常於大
市急跌時,引伸波幅便會大幅上升(8月,1月及3 月),而於除後大市回升時便會下
降,所以在認股証之引伸波幅極高時購入是十分不智,因為就算投資者看對方向,
由於引伸波幅回落,認股証之價格可能不升反跌。這也說明為可認股証發行商的
利潤十分豐厚,因為他們可以以高價賣給投資者而在低價買回。
Seng Heng Bank – Center for Investment and Risk Analytics

                               誠興銀行 – 投資及風險研究中心


                                                  圖三 , 恆指歷史與引伸波幅
80.0%                                                                                                                           34000



70.0%                                                                                                                           32000



60.0%                                                                                                                           30000



50.0%                                                                                                                           28000



40.0%                                                                                                                           26000



30.0%                                                                                                                           24000



20.0%                                                                                                                           22000



10.0%                                                                                                                           20000



0.0%                                                                                                                            18000
   5/7/2007   6/7/2007   7/7/2007   8/7/2007   9/7/2007   10/7/2007    11/7/2007   12/7/2007   1/7/2008   2/7/2008   3/7/2008

                                    歷史波幅       認購期權引伸波幅               認沽期權引伸波幅             恆生指數




總結



         運用衍生工具的精要是用予減低風險,並非用於單邊賭博。但普通投資者
大多數是用於後者。由於風險無限的關係,加上市況十分波動,投資者實不應參
與買賣期指,而認股証由於投資者最多只會損失本金,但宜少注宜情。至於期權,
則可運用期權組合用作減低風險之用。最後參與衍生工具之投資者請緊記 [風險控
制,量力以為]。
(讀者如有任何意見,可電郵至feedback@stshb.com)

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