Page 52 EDB 2010 There What's Next? Megatrends Shaping Tomorrow's Society and Rebooting Democracy

Source:MattNovak’sPaleo-Futureblog
From Gov2.0 in 2010
… to Gov3.0 in 2020
What’s
Next?
EDB © 2010, Antonio Lo Cascio

EDB 2010
The trouble with our times
is that the future is not
what it used to be PaulValery

Source: Matt Novak’s Paleo-Future blog

EDB 2010
From change as the
exception
to …
…
change
as the norm

Underlying
megatrends that
are shaping
tomorrow
Towards 2020

Once again, industrialisation
is changing our society…

.. but now with an abundant
access to raw materials:
CPU capacity continues to
double every 18 months
(”Moore’s Law”)
130x...

Storage capacity continues to
double every 12 months
(”Kryder’s Law”)

2,000x
(in 10 years)
… and then, with startling
speed; Network bandwidth
triples every 18 months
(”Gilder’s Law”)

ICT
∑Possibilities
∞→
ICT
∑Price → 0
Two remarkable rules seem to apply
for the primary means of production
in the informa...

EDB 2010
$600M
x36
STILL…

«Cheap, utility-
supplied computing
will ultimately
change society as
profoundly as cheap
electricity did»
Nicholas Carr

The widespread democratisation of
means of production and distribution is
impacting and transforming our society
more than...

Et voilà; Une
explosion de
l'information!

It is estimated that one week of
newspaper content …

.. equals more information than
one person received during a
lifetime in the 18th century

It is calculated that the global content
production this year will amount to
1,000 exabyte
Source: “The Expanding Digital ...

…or more content than
was produced during the
previous 5,000 years
(combined)

> 4B pictures uploaded to Flickr (as of October 2009)
> 2B new pictures uploaded to Facebook – each month

13 hours
-uploaded video to YouTube
-every minute

247 billion
- number of e-mails per day in 2009
(81 percent was spam…)

Up Next:
“The Internet of Things”

«In 2011, 2B people will be connected to the
internet – as well as 1,000B things» Bob Sutor, IBM

EDB 2010
From
Desktop to
Mobile to

1.1
1.4
5.0
.. combined
Now there are twice as
many mobile phones
in our world as
TV sets and
PCs …

But we are just in the early stages of
the 5th IT wave, The Mobile Internet
Page 31
EDB 2010
Kilde: comScore Global 1/10

Source: John Batelle, Wired
EDB 2010
Mobile internet will open
new opportunities

YouTube–AugmentedRealityoniPhone

“Everyware” adding to
a vast sea of information
..every second ..of every hour ..of every day
ST.OLAV HOSPITAL
One of the ...

NUI – Natural User
Interfaces – the
new standard

..and movement2 loudspeakers
HD Video
Front camera
5MP camera
UMTS / 3G
Bluetooth, WiFi
2 microphones
HD Screen
Multi Touc...

“Once social change
begins, it cannot be
reversed”
Towards 2020
Cesar Chavez

Source: Finance Dep, Norway
1967: 3.9 workers
per retired person
2003: 2.6 workers
per retired person
2050: 1.6 workers
pe...

Oslo University Hospital is one
of Northern Europe’s largest …
Norway will have to build 6 hospitals
like it to meet the n...

¾ of all
graduates must
begin to work
within the health
care sector
Source: SINTEF,
oct 2009

Challenges are
formidable!
To a far greater
extent than today,
public sector
needs to exploit
opportunities
from self serv...

EDB 2010
Most sectors are facing extensive
efficiency improvements needs –
and will have to learn from the
banks’ ...

EDB 2010
There will be an
increased
competition for
the best minds,
with an IT focus
on Collaboration,
HR & Brand ...

Digital Natives
Set the Agenda

Keeping up with the Joneses:
The Hunt for Comfort
The Lack of Cash,
Products & Options
*Picture source: Google Image Search

The Hunt for
Meaning
The Lack of Trust,
Time & Attention
More informed
More educated
More mobile
Still a ”youngster”
at 30...

«Bathed in Bits since Birth»
"Growing Up Digital", Don Tapscott

Consumo
Ergo Sum
"People want to be part of
something larger than
themselves. They want to
be part of something they
are r...

“What we sell is the ability for
a 43-year-old accountant to
dress in black leather, ride
through small towns and
have peo...

Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
They are
the most active
in finding public
information in new
context...

Source: SINTEF / Norstat
2008 and Nielsen, june 2009
Never
considered
”cold”, ICT is
their primary
social glue

Rebooting Democracy –
A New Model Emerging
Industry
Society
Information
Society
Democracy Represented Participatory
Citize...

(1) Ensuring
openness &
transparency
(2) Lowering the cost
of government
(3) Cyber-Security
(4) Participatory
democracy
(5...

more global
more local
morecollective
moreindividual
From ”EDB Digital Public Sector Scenario Planning 2015
My Multimedia ...

Technology alone will not create change
Vision Competencies Incentives Resources Plan & Process CHANGE!
Competencies Incen...

«If your only tool is a hammer, every
problem looks like a nail»
Bernard Baruch