Methods of delay analysis
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This document discusses different methods for analyzing construction delays. It begins with an overview of forensic schedule analysis and definitions. It then examines the main delay analysis methodologies: as-planned vs as-built, impacted as-planned, time impact analysis, and as-built but for. For each methodology, it outlines the approach, strengths, and weaknesses. It emphasizes that the most suitable methodology depends on the specific project factors and available information. It recommends following industry guidance and notes that facts should take precedence over theoretical analyses. The document aims to provide an unbiased overview of delay analysis options to help practitioners choose the right approach.
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Methods of delay analysis
- 2. OVERVIEW Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance Conclusions 2
- 3. “‘Beware the dark arts’ was the sage advice of Albus Dumbledore to the young Harry Potter. Besides budding wizards, construction clients (at the project or dispute resolution stages), contractors and lawyers would be equally well served by this advice when it comes to the difficult subject of delay analysis"...“delay analysis like Lord Voldamort, comes in many guises and it seems there is a spell for every circumstance. ‘What would you like conjured … err … proven, sir? Let me just mix up some ‘fragnets’, ‘lags’, eye of newt and … hey presto!’” OVERVIEW – DEFINITION 3 (cited: BEWARE THE DARK ARTS! DELAY ANALYSIS AND THE PROBLEMS WITH RELIANCE ON TECHNOLOGY, David Barry, 2009 )
- 4. • FORENSIC SCHEDULE ANALYSIS • “… refers to the study and investigation of events using CPM or other recognized schedule calculation methods for potential use in a legal proceeding.” • “… the study of how actual events interacted in the context of a complex model for the purpose of understanding the significance of a specific deviation or series of deviations from some baseline model and their role in determining the sequence of tasks within the complex network.” (cited: AACE® International Recommended Practice No. 29R‐03 FORENSIC SCHEDULE ANALYSIS TCM Framework) OVERVIEW – DEFINITION 4
- 5. APPROACH Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis and Nomenclature Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance Conclusions 5
- 6. APPROACH – DELAY ANALYSIS METHODOLOGIES 6 TWO Types FOUR Categories* TWO Types FOUR Categories* * See for example the Society of Construction Law “Protocol on Delay and Disruption”, or Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering Recommended Practice No.29R-03 “Forensic Schedule Analysis” • As‐planned versus As‐built • As‐Built But For LOOKING BACKLOOKING BACK Retrospective Analyses LOOKING FORWARDLOOKING FORWARD Prospective Analyses • Time‐Impact Analysis • Impacted As‐planned
- 7. • is the most basic method of analysis • is observational – no changes are made to the programme • straightforward comparison between the planned vs the actual performance of the work • can only be carried out retrospectively (requires as‐built programme/or at least the overall as‐built completion date) 7 Strengths Weakness • is very simple and therefore easy to understand • can be performed with rudimentary base data (e.g. when detail and logic of the as‐ planned programme is unavailable, and no detailed progress records other than the overall as‐built programme are available) • Static critical path • fails to fulfil the fundamental requirement to demonstrate the causal link between a delay event and its alleged effect • does not deal adequately with concurrent delay APPROACH – AS‐PLANNED VS AS‐BUILT (APAB)
- 9. APPROACH – IMPACTED AS‐PLANNED (IAP) 9 • is a prospective methodology • delay effect is measured by imposing events on a model of the original programme (Baseline) • does not rely on any actual progress that has been made • requires a robust and reliable original programme that reflects the indented sequence and the Scope of Work Strengths Weakness • relatively simple to carry out and to understand • No as‐built required (likely choice when planned programme is available, no significant changes in the sequence during the project execution, few delaying events, and when there is little or no progress records) • cannot be used for complex projects • used to quantify potential delays rather and actual • concurrent delays easily overlooked • assumes that the baseline was achievable • does not take actual progress/ resources into account • not reliable in dispute resolution
- 11. APPROACH – TIME IMPACT ANALYSIS (TIA) 11 • prospective and dynamic method – but can be applied retrospectively • takes account of progress and timing of delay events on the Works • requires reliable as‐built data to update the programme (hence, if detailed and regular progress data is not available then this method cannot be used) • a reliable baseline programme is essential (ideally reflects the execution of the planned project using sound construction logic) • often undertaken in time slices (windows) Strengths Weakness • has a proven track‐record in forensic application • preferred method of the SCL Protocol • based on a dynamic and changing critical path • demonstrates cause and effect • time consuming (to determine the factual background and correct logic associated with progress records and delay events) • requires considerable degree of expertise and technical knowledge • hence, difficult to communicate, highly complex
- 12. Activity 1 Activity 2 Activity 3 Project Completion Date of Event TimescaleActivities Progress behind on this activity. Delay to Project Completion Delay to Project Completion (2) Delay Event • Delay (1) caused by poor progress • Delay (2) caused by event • Claim = difference between D (1) and D (2) 12 APPROACH – TIME IMPACT ANALYSIS (TIA)
- 13. APPROACH – AS‐BUILT BUT FOR (ABBF) 13 • retrospective method also known as Collapsed As‐built (CAB) • relies on a detailed reconstruction of the as‐built programme • normally restricted to after‐the‐event analyses in forensic work • does have a limited prospective capability (can be used to demonstrate the effect of a delay on the completed part of an incomplete project) • has been proven to be reliable in dispute resolution/ claims • If done properly can demonstrates effect and cause/ takes account of concurrence Strengths Weakness • greatest strength for forensic work is that it is fact based (based on as‐ build) • not reliant upon an as‐planned programme • complicated method hence, difficult to execute and to explain • difficult to establish a dynamic as‐built schedule (as complicated to determine and model logic) • requires detailed as‐build/ progress records
- 18. AACEI RP 29R-03: Forensic Schedule Analysis Table 1 – Nomenclature Correspondence ADVANTGES & DISADVANTAGES NOT PREFERENCE … OR PREJUDICE! APPROACH – NOMENCLATURE 18
- 19. FINDINGS Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis and Nomenclature Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance Conclusions 19
- 20. Which Method is appropriate, correct, sustainable? • Legal/Contractual • What does the jurisdiction/ contract require? (e.g. Concurrency? Likely or Actual delay to completion? Delay Analysis Method Specified?) • What information is available? • Planned, progress, as‐built (Does a lack of information preclude the use of any of the methods?) • Time and Money • Do time/cost constraints eliminate certain options? ((During project/After Project, Record keeping; Staff available (Engineering/Management),Decision making, Budget) • Other issues: • Proportionality, Type of project, Which party, at what stage is the dispute? FINDINGS – CHOOSING A METHODOLOGY 20
- 21. Key Facts: At least after an event delay becomes a fact and the Other Party/ the Courts are interested in what actually happened rather than in what could have happened. For an event to affect the completion date it must fall on the critical path of the project. must consider all relevant facts and evidence regardless of a positive or negative impact in relation to the issues in question Delay Analysis should be based on a calculated approach it can not be impressionistic Effect and Cause not Cause and Effect Are there facts/ evidence available and accessible to verify the cause? FINDINGS – FACT IS KING 21
- 22. Recommend Guidance: AACEI Recommended Practice (http://www.aacei.org/resources/ppg/) SCL Protocol (http://www.scl.org.uk/resources) FINDINGS – GUIDANCE 22
- 23. CONCLUSIONS Overview – Definition Forensic Schedule Analysis and Nomenclature Approach – Delay Analysis Methodologies pro & cons Findings – Choosing a methodology, Fact is King, Guidance Conclusions 23
- 24. CONCLUSIONS 24 Conclusions: Delay Analysis comes in many guises all with their advantages and disadvantages To chose the most suitable method depends on the surrounding factors Facts and common sense are KING
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