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Decision Making Process

         Unit II
Decision making.



– The process of choosing a course of action for

 dealing with a problem or opportunity.




                        2
How are decisions made
                  in organizations?
 Steps in systematic decision making.
   – Recognize and define the problem or opportunity.

   – Identify and analyze alternative courses of action, and
     estimate their effects on the problem or opportunity.
   – Choose a preferred course of action.

   – Implement the preferred course of action.

   – Evaluate the results and follow up as necessary.



                               3
Decision-Making Conditions




            4
Types of Decisions.
1. Programmed Vs Nonprogrammed decisions
   – Programmed decisions.
       • Involve routine problems that arise regularly and can be addressed through
         standard responses.
   – Nonprogrammed decisions.
       • Involve nonroutine problems that require solutions specifically tailored to
         the situation at hand
2. Major Vs Minor decisions

3. Individual Vs Group decisions


                                      5
Conditions that Affect the Possibility of
           Decision Failure
                            Organizational
                               Problem


 Low                 Possibility of Failure                   High
  Certainty          Risk             Uncertainty      Ambiguity


       Programmed                             Nonprogrammed
         Decisions                               Decisions

                              Problem
                              Solution

                                  6
1. Rational Perspectives on
     Decision Making




             7
Six Steps in the Managerial
 Decision Making Process




             8
Decision Making Steps

Step 1. Recognize Need for a Decision
  – Sparked by an event such as environment changes.
     • Managers must first realize that a decision must be made.
Step 2. Generate Alternatives
  – Managers must develop feasible alternative courses of
    action.
     • If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor.
     • It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to
       look for new ideas.




                            9
Decision Making Steps

Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives
  – What are the advantages and disadvantages
    of each alternative?
  – Managers should specify criteria, then
    evaluate.




                  10
Decision Making Steps
Step 3. Evaluate alternatives




                   11
Decision Making Steps
Step 4. Choose Among Alternatives
  – Rank the various alternatives and make a decision
  – Managers must be sure all the information
    available is brought to bear on the problem or
    issue at hand




                         12
Decision Making Steps

Step 5. Implement Chosen Alternative
  – Managers must now carry out the alternative.
  – Often a decision is made and not implemented.
Step 6. Learn From Feedback
  – Managers should consider what went right and wrong
    with the decision and learn for the future.
  – Without feedback, managers do not learn from
    experience and will repeat the same mistake over.


                     13
The Administrative Model of
     Decision Making




             14
The Scope of Decision Making
 1. Individual decision making
 2. Group decision making
 3. Organizational decision making
 4. Metaorganizational decision
    making

                 15
Advantages and Disadvantages of
Group and Team Decision Making




               16
Methods of Group Decision Making
• Nominal Group Technique
  – Members silently and individually generate ideas
  – They present without discussion
  – Discussion and clarification
  – Silently rate
  – Group decision is the pooled outcome of votes




                         17

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Decision making , rr mob.2011(3)

  • 2. Decision making. – The process of choosing a course of action for dealing with a problem or opportunity. 2
  • 3. How are decisions made in organizations?  Steps in systematic decision making. – Recognize and define the problem or opportunity. – Identify and analyze alternative courses of action, and estimate their effects on the problem or opportunity. – Choose a preferred course of action. – Implement the preferred course of action. – Evaluate the results and follow up as necessary. 3
  • 5. Types of Decisions. 1. Programmed Vs Nonprogrammed decisions – Programmed decisions. • Involve routine problems that arise regularly and can be addressed through standard responses. – Nonprogrammed decisions. • Involve nonroutine problems that require solutions specifically tailored to the situation at hand 2. Major Vs Minor decisions 3. Individual Vs Group decisions 5
  • 6. Conditions that Affect the Possibility of Decision Failure Organizational Problem Low Possibility of Failure High Certainty Risk Uncertainty Ambiguity Programmed Nonprogrammed Decisions Decisions Problem Solution 6
  • 7. 1. Rational Perspectives on Decision Making 7
  • 8. Six Steps in the Managerial Decision Making Process 8
  • 9. Decision Making Steps Step 1. Recognize Need for a Decision – Sparked by an event such as environment changes. • Managers must first realize that a decision must be made. Step 2. Generate Alternatives – Managers must develop feasible alternative courses of action. • If good alternatives are missed, the resulting decision is poor. • It is hard to develop creative alternatives, so managers need to look for new ideas. 9
  • 10. Decision Making Steps Step 3. Evaluate Alternatives – What are the advantages and disadvantages of each alternative? – Managers should specify criteria, then evaluate. 10
  • 11. Decision Making Steps Step 3. Evaluate alternatives 11
  • 12. Decision Making Steps Step 4. Choose Among Alternatives – Rank the various alternatives and make a decision – Managers must be sure all the information available is brought to bear on the problem or issue at hand 12
  • 13. Decision Making Steps Step 5. Implement Chosen Alternative – Managers must now carry out the alternative. – Often a decision is made and not implemented. Step 6. Learn From Feedback – Managers should consider what went right and wrong with the decision and learn for the future. – Without feedback, managers do not learn from experience and will repeat the same mistake over. 13
  • 14. The Administrative Model of Decision Making 14
  • 15. The Scope of Decision Making 1. Individual decision making 2. Group decision making 3. Organizational decision making 4. Metaorganizational decision making 15
  • 16. Advantages and Disadvantages of Group and Team Decision Making 16
  • 17. Methods of Group Decision Making • Nominal Group Technique – Members silently and individually generate ideas – They present without discussion – Discussion and clarification – Silently rate – Group decision is the pooled outcome of votes 17