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Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

Slide about mobile market I use to had a session for Computer Science CU on Aug 15, 2013

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Mobile Market : Past Present Now and Then

  1. Mobile Mobile Mobile
  2. Who am I • Sittiphol Phanvilai (nuuneoi) • 11 years in mobile application development • Expertise on Smartphone application development and UI/UX • Experience 2 global apps with more than 1,000,000 downloads
  3. Agenda • Mobile Market • What’s now in Thailand • Get started on mobile app development • To be mobile application developer • Want to have your own product?
  4. Why Everyone goes for Mobile?
  5. Why Mobile? • I believe that everyone know the answer • Everyone has mobile ! • Mobile phone is not just a phone anymore, they are now computer that could make a call • Mobile phone is now treated as “Anytime Accessible Online Channel”
  6. And somebody has already been rich from mobile app
  7. Apportunity • App brings a lot of great opportunities to creator
  8. To be rich
  9. To be known (and may be rich)
  10. To be hired
  11. To expand the business
  12. How does these Apportunities happen?
  13. Ecosystem
  14. App Store makes the world smaller
  15. Journey of the app: Past
  16. Key difficulty • Hard to distribute the application • Hard to collect money from customer • Piracy always win (especially in Thailand)
  17. Journey of the app: Present
  18. Key Advantage • App distribution is not big deal anymore • App Store collect the money for developer • Piracy is also not big deal
  19. Thanks to
  20. Internet connect people together Internet
  21. Ecosystem is ready
  22. Smartphone becomes the most effective connecting people device
  23. Definition of Mobile Application is changed
  24. Mobile Application: Past • The software on mobile
  25. Mobile Application: Present • The media that help user and brand connected via mobile
  26. Understand Mobile Market
  27. Global Mobile Subscription
  28. Penetration Percentage
  29. Mobile Phone Markets • There are two types of mobile phones: Smartphone Feature phone
  30. Smartphone is eating Feature Phone’s cake • Q1’2013: Smartphone out-shipped Feature Phone
  31. U.S. Smartphone Penetration
  32. U.K. Smartphone Penetration
  33. It is still world of feature phone but … • There are two words you need to know: • What is difference? Potential User Non-potential user
  34. Potential User • User with potential to spend money on mobile app • Use app frequently • Smartphone user is
  35. Non-Potential User • Opposite to Potential User • What is app? • Feature phone user is
  36. Potential users are keep increasing That’s mean cash flow in mobile app industry is keep increasing as well
  37. What’s now in Thailand
  38. Now in Thailand • Very high demand on mobile app – But 95% of demand are “Gimmick” • Very high supply on programmer – But low quality • Quality developer goes abroad for big company • Funny: Startup causes developer shortage • AEC will cause quality developer leaking out more
  39. Wanna be mobile application developer?
  40. What to focus?
  41. Good News: War End
  42. Good News: War end • Android is leader, iOS is latter – Cover more than 90% and will be like this for at least 2 years • Windows Phone is now No.3 but still has no potential (and keep going down) • As well as BB10 and the rest
  43. Bad News Red Ocean
  44. Red Ocean • There are already winner in almost every single type of application • It doesn’t mean there is no room for new app, there is but not so many
  45. Bad News • The winner is Android Fragmentation
  46. Fragmentation
  47. Fragmentation
  48. Fragmentation
  49. Fragmentation
  50. iOS vs Android
  51. iOS vs Android
  52. Go for Android and iOS (if you want to go mass)
  53. So Android or iOS first?
  54. iOS vs Android: Shipment
  55. iOS vs Android
  56. Anyway go for iOS first not Android • Although Android market share is larger than iOS but … – Potential user is still less than iOS – Fragmentation is high high high high highhhhh
  57. You need to go for them BOTH • At the final stage, application is needed to be supported on both platform • You also could do for them both at the same time – How? (TBD)
  58. Bad News: Late game • We are now in period of “Late game” • There is already a winner in every single way – Hardware – Software • You would never be the first one • Don’t try to fight with the winner (unless you are so confident)
  59. Late game • No room for “just another application” • Success rate is lower than previous • To survive: – Build the service or platform targeted the specific target – Build on top the successful application – Build Enterprise application
  60. MOLOME • Had ever been intended to compete with Instagram • Until Instagram was acquired by Facebook
  61. MOLOME
  62. Turn crisis into opportunity (Pivot)
  63. Desktop vs Mobile
  64. Desktop vs Mobile • Desktop: Run on power supply • Mobile: Run on Battery
  65. Desktop vs Mobile • Desktop: 2GB-32GB of RAM • Mobile: 256MB - 2GB
  66. Desktop vs Mobile • Desktop: Stable network • Mobile: WiFi, 3G, 2G, No signal
  67. Desktop vs Mobile • Desktop: Large screen • Mobile: Small screen
  68. Desktop vs Mobile • Desktop: Very fast processor • Mobile: Far slower processor
  69. Quality Mobile App Developer
  70. Quality Mobile App Developer • Know how to optimize code • Know how to deal with fragmentation • Can develop both iOS and Android • Know direction of technology and follow • Don’t stick with just one OS • Know the UI/UX guideline • Know how to share code with another • Crash
  71. Get started on mobile application development
  72. Native • Android: Java • iOS: Objective-C • Windows Phone: C# (Silverlight/WPF) • BB10: Qt (QML + C++) • Firefox OS: HTML + CSS
  73. Cross Platform
  74. Wanna own your product?
  75. Startup 101
  76. Startup 101 One thing you should know Startup is simple thing that very very very hard
  77. Basis • Good Team – Founder – Developer – Business Development – PR & Marketing – Sale • Great Idea • Vision • Monetization • Connection • Luck
  78. Step MarketingPRImplementDesignThink 40% 20% 20% 20%
  79. Startup Ecosystem Investor + Startup with Scalable business
  80. Startup Ecosystem in Thailand • Almost ready • But the biggest problem is just about 1% reach investor’s need • Now fund is moving out from Thailand to another country: Vietnam, Myanmar
  81. Suggestion • Think Local then Regional then Global • What does it mean? Scalable
  82. Suggestion • Don’t open company in Thailand • Go for Singapore
  83. Secret behind mobile application’s success
  84. Success rate of mobile application 5% and keep lower by time
  85. Key Success • Cross Platform • Solve the problem • Snatch the “time in daily life” • Repeated user is more important than new user (Gain & Keep) • Use Gimmick to gain user, use feature to keep user • Has business model
  86. Key Success (Cont.) • Always deliver new things • Perfect time to market • Well-designed • Quality • PR and Marketing • Connection
  87. Gimmick vs Feature
  88. Gimmick vs Feature
  89. Gimmick • Wow ! • Huuuu • Haaaaa • But boring • Short-life • Use it just once or twice • Like ‘Magic’
  90. Feature • Wow ! • Huuuu • Haaaaa • But boring • Short-life • Use it just once or twice • Like ‘Magic’
  91. Gimmick + Feature • PR + Marketing + Real Feature
  92. Gain & Keep • Gain : To gain user to the system • Keep : To keep user using the service
  93. Gimmick • Don’t measure succeed from Gimmick
  94. Gimmick & Feature • So how do you know which one is Gimmick, which one is feature? “Sense”
  95. Attack on ‘Daily Life’
  96. Attack on Daily Life • As long as people still eat, dining application will still alive • As long as people still talk, chatting application will still alive • As long as people still take a photo, photo sharing application will still alive • As long as people still have lust, sex, dating service and adult content will still last long
  97. Dining
  98. Chatting
  99. Chatting
  100. Photo Sharing
  101. Adult
  102. Business Model of Mobile Application
  103. Business Model • Free • Free with Ads • Sell the application/game • Free with In-App Purchase • Subscription • Expand the business to mobile • Sell your personal data
  104. Free • For fun • For portfolio
  105. Free with Ads • To collect some amount of money – 1-5 cents per user per day • Need very high return rate • Annoying
  106. Sell the application/game • Just sell it • Work with just specific OS in specific case • In general case, not work anymore
  107. Free with In-App Purchase • Distribute it for free and collect money from virtual item selling
  108. Subscription • Subscription base service. Collect money every week/month to extend the membership – Book – Movie – Etc.
  109. To expand the business
  110. Sell your personal data !
  111. Success Case Study
  112. Top 10 Revenue
  113. LINE • Chat platform is the new way of social networking • At first, success with new method of chatting (Sticker) • Now more successful with gaming service
  114. Instagram • Give the new way to communicate with people • Solve the “too hard to decorate photo on mobile“ problem • Creator has very good connection • Change the concept in time
  115. Pulse News • Present new way to read the news • Solve the problem “Hard to read news on mobile phone”
  116. LINE & Instagram & Pulse • They are “Platform” • They are “Well-Designed” • Driven with “User generated content” • In “Daily-Life”
  117. Trends
  118. World is rotate faster in mobile world • Everything changes in “year” – Motorola has ever been No.1 – Nokia has ever been No.1 – BlackBerry has ever been No.1 – Apple has ever been No.1 – Samsung has ever been No.2
  119. You need to know the trend and know what is going to happen
  120. Global Trends • Android will be No.1 for at least 5 years from now on or might be forever • iOS will be No.2 for a big while as well • Cross Platform is a must • Potential user will (or already does) use more than one smartphone with different OS • Store everything on Cloud • Just software might not be enough anymore
  121. Thai Market • 3G is (finally) available – Time to think about content to feed to user • Thai people basically doesn’t spend money on mobile app but dramatically love to spend money for showing off purpose
  122. It is too late to be just a Mobile Application Developer
  123. New way to develop app • In future, app will be done by template – Shoppening – iBuildApp • Demand for mobile app developer will be lower • But there is still demand for skilled one
  124. VC said: “Mobile App again?” • Mobile app is the way too … many • Consumer app is in Red Ocean situation • There is very big room to play in Enterprise application
  125. Next era is for • Big Screen Hardware • Wearable Device • Robot
  126. Application for business owner
  127. Enterprise Application • Big room and great opportunity for developer and business owner • Application to use internally for organization • Last year is year of consumer application, this year is year of enterprise application
  128. Case Study: Condomenium
  129. Case Study: Insurance
  130. Consumer Application to expand business
  131. Augmented Reality on Mobile
  132. Feature or Gimmick? • 90% Gimmick • 10% Feature
  133. Augmented Reality • It is just a technique
  134. It is all about content
  135. Good Question • AR was implemented for many years ago • Why there is no success case that last long?
  136. Cloud Computing
  137. Cloud • Why does Cloud matter? – People has many devices on hand – User need to sync data on every single device • How could we do? – via Server • Server needs to be scalable for variant number of users – Scalable server = Cloud
  138. Cloud • Public Cloud • Private Cloud
  139. Popular Public Cloud • Amazon Web Service • Microsoft Azure • Advantage – Pay per use – Zero initial cost – Scalable • Disadvantage – No privacy – Uncontrollable
  140. The End