New Technology Lecture L03 Exponential World
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For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your father and your childs. Nothing changed. Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law. Any new technology that gets wide acceptance in society needs to be adopted by people. We will explore that type of people are the first to adopt new things, and what types come later.
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New Technology Lecture L03 Exponential World
- 2. How does technology evolve?
- 3. Evolution of technology is closely linked with the evolution of mankind
- 4. Charles Darwin published “On The Origin of Species” in 1852
- 5. Evolutionary Process Each generation breeds the next, and becomes an input
- 6. Samuel Butler published 1859 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines” Kingdom of the machines
- 7. Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
- 8. Kevin Kelly’s The Seventh Kingdom
- 9. Evolution of the human brain http://www.bordalierinstitute.com/images/brainEvolution.jpg
- 10. THE EXPONENTIAL
- 11. The S-‐Curve
- 12. The S-curve Based on the notion of the Technical Life Cycle Improvements in performance varies throughout the life of the technology
- 13. The S-curve Product Perfomance Maturity phase Growth phase Research and development phase Time and effort
- 14. The S-curve Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-‐curves where each curve is faster
- 15. The S-curve Exponential trends can be composed of a sequence of S-‐curves where each curve is faster
- 17. Technology Life Cycle The technology life-cycle (TLC) describes the commercial gain of a product through the expense of research and development phase, and the financial return during its "vital life".
- 18. Technology Life Cycle In the early days In the later days ! ! The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market
- 20. Computers in 1964 IBM System/360 360/20 with 24K of memory
- 21. The Digital Revolution Transistor, 1947 Vacuum tube, 1904 Intel 4004, 1971 Integrated circuit, 1959
- 22. Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
- 23. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months
- 24. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.
- 29. 30 years of product improvements 1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz
- 30. 30 years of product improvements iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4
- 31. Exponential Growth Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates
- 32. Second half of the Chess board Flickr picture by spwelton
- 33. The Legend of the Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
- 35. Moore’s Law Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months.
- 37. Computers will be faster
- 38. Computers will be smaller
- 39. Computers will be cheaper
- 40. Computers will be everywhere
- 41. Things that once were impossible become possible
- 43. From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009
- 44. And from 2009 to 2014
- 45. The Long Nose of Innovation Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/ id2008012_297369.htm
- 46. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to accelerate
- 47. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
- 48. The Law of Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
- 49. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the commonsense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil
- 50. S-Curve
- 51. S-Curve
- 52. S-Curve
- 53. S-Curve
- 54. S-Curve
- 55. S-Curve
- 56. Is this evolution of technology good?
- 57. Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral
- 58. Peter Diamandis