New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
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For the most time of human history, life was local and linear. Local in the way that anything that happened was close by, a least within a walking distance. Linear in the way that your life was the same as your father and your children. Nothing changed. Just like the evolution of man, technology improvements follow an evolutionary progress. New ideas or products are to begin with immature and fragile with slow improvements. Then the progress accelerates until the products become mature and taken for granted. Then the cycle repeats and a new layer of technology is added to the previous. This process is exponential. One such observation of exponential is Moore’s Law. Any new technology that gets wide acceptance in society needs to be adopted by people. We will explore that type of people are the first to adopt new things, and what types come later.
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New Technology 2015 L03 Exponential World
- 6. Process by which an organisation transforms labor, capital, material, and information into products and services of greater values Technology
- 7. The value you get out of a product for which you have paid some cost Product Performance
- 8. Innovation The change in the technology
- 9. HOW DOES TECHNOLOGY EVOLVE?
- 10. Evolution of technology is closely linked with the evolution of mankind
- 11. Charles Darwin published “On The Origin of Species” in 1852
- 12. Evolutionary Process Each generation breeds the next, and becomes an input
- 13. Samuel Butler published 1859 a letter to the editor of the Press in New Zealand, called “Darwin among the Machines” Kingdom of the machines
- 14. Kevin Kelly: The Seventh Kingdom
- 16. Kevin Kelly’s The Seventh Kingdom
- 18. EXPONENTIAL
- 20. IF PRODUCT PERFORMANCE DOUBLES EVERY YEAR IN 10 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE IN 30 YEARS WE HAVE 1,000,000,000 FOLD INCREASE IN PERFOMANCE
- 22. IBM System/360 360/20 with 24K of memory Computers in 1964
- 23. Transistor, 1947 Integrated circuit, 1959 Intel 4004, 1971 Vacuum tube, 1904 THE DIGITAL REVOLUTION
- 24. Gordon Moore published an article in 1965 called “Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits”
- 25. Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 26. Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months. Moore’s Law
- 31. 1977 Apple II $1,298 4000 bytes memory Motorola 6502 1MHz 2007 iMac 17-inch $1,199 1GB memory Intel 2.0GHz 30 years of product improvements
- 32. iPad 2 as fast as Cray 2 supercomputer, fraction of the size Read more: http://www.electronista.com/articles/11/05/10/ipad.2.benches.as.fast.as.cray.2.from.1985/#ixzz1jdOS0Es4 Cray 2 1985 Apple iPad 2 2011 30 years of product improvements
- 33. Slow growth in the beginning than accelerates Exponential Growth
- 34. Flickr picture by spwelton SECOND HALF OF THE CHESSBOARD
- 35. The Legend of the Ambalappuzha Paal Payasam
- 37. Number of transistors on an integrated circuit will double in about 18-24 months Moore’s Law
- 39. COMPUTERS WILL BE FASTER
- 40. COMPUTERS WILL BE SMALLER
- 41. COMPUTERS WILL BE CHEAPER
- 42. STUDY EXERCISE
- 43. THINGS THAT ONCE WHERE IMPOSSIBLE BECOME POSSIBLE
- 46. From a 1946 Comic strip to CES 2009
- 48. And from 2009 to 2014
- 50. ANY NEW TECHNOLOGY THAT COMES TO THE MARKET IS LIKELY TO BE AT LEAST 10 YEARS OLD
- 51. Source: http://www.businessweek.com/innovate/content/jan2008/ id2008012_297369.htm Bill Buxton’s Long nose of Innovation The Long Nose of Innovation
- 52. Growth of Technology Evolutionary processes – both biology and technology, tend to a c c e l e r a t e
- 53. Ray Kurzweil on how technology will transform us (from TED.com)
- 55. PLANS ARE USUALLY ASUME LINAR GROWTH
- 56. DESIGN PRODUCTS WITH TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE IN MIND
- 57. TECHNOLOGICAL PREDICTIONS ARE USUALLY RIGHT, JUST WRONG IN TIME
- 58. MOST PRODUCTS FAIL BECAUSE ALL THE ENABLING FACTORS ARE IN PLACE WHEN NEEDED
- 59. The Law of Accelerating Returns Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more capable methods resulting from one stage of evolutionary progress are used to create the next stage. As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary process increases exponentially over time.
- 60. “An analysis of the history of technology shows that technological change is exponential, contrary to the common- sense ‘intuitive linear’ view. So we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today's rate).” - Ray Kurzweil
- 67. Disruptive stress or opportunity Growth of technology Our view of the world
- 68. DISRUPTIVE STRESS TECHNOLOGY IS CAUSING PROBLEMS ESTABLISHED COMPANIES ARE TREATED BUSINESS MODELS BECOME IRRELEVANT LAWS BECOME USELESS
- 69. DISRUPTIVE OPPURTINTY NEVER BEFORE IN HISTORY HAS SOME MUCH OPPORTUNITY BE AVAILABLE TO SO MANY PEOPLE
- 70. Is this evolution of technology good?
- 71. Technology is neither good nor bad; nor is it neutral Kranzberg’s 1. law of technology
- 72. Peter Diamandis
- 74. Why did smartwatches appear in 2014 when the idea came in the 50s QUESTION