Innovation is the change in technology. The question is this: how does innovation happen? Many people have believe that new ideas come from brilliant inventors that have lightbulb moments or an epiphany. Greek scholar Archimedes had a Eureka moment, Newton discovered the theory of gravity when the apple fell on his head, and so on. This idea has been popularized, but the truth is quite different. Most discoveries are based on long evaluation - slow hunches, and collaboration. In this lecture we look at how innovation happens. We look at the slow hunch, the liquid network, and serendipity.

1. LECTURE L04
ADJECENT POSSIBLE

2. Exponential World
Local and linear
Global and Exponential

3. The S-curve
Improvements in performance
varies throughout the life of the
technology

4. Number of transistors on
an integrated circuit will double
in about 18-24 months
Moore’s Law

5. The Law of Accelerating Returns
Evolution applies positive feedback in that the more
capable methods resulting from one stage of
evolutionary progress are used to
create the next stage
As a result, the rate of progress of an evolutionary
process increases exponentially over time

6. Complexity of Technology
Local and linear
Global and Exponential

7. Combinatorial

8. Ideas build upon Ideas
Every generation of technology
becomes a source for new
innovations

9. Web of Technology
Products are made using different
parts using many technologies -
confection of ideas

10. Gall’s Law
All complex systems that work, evolved from
simpler system that worked

11. “I, Pencil” by Leonard E. Read

12. Toaster

13. Thomas Thwaits: The Toaster Project

14. "Left to his own devices he couldn’t build a toaster.
He could just about make a sandwich
and that was it."
Mostly Harmless, Douglas Adams, 1992

17. “And that was something that reoccurred
throughout the project, was, the smaller the
scale you want to work on, the further back
in time you have to go”
- Thomas Thwaites

18. Layers of Technology
Technologies evolves layer by
layer, from simple to complex
technologies

19. Combinatory Process
New technology is created
by combining other existing
technology in new ways

20. The Law of Disappearing Technology
When some technique is
mastered, it will “disappear” as
something obvious and trivial, and
other more useful things that are
built on top of it

21. The Resistance Corollary
Even outdated things that
should “disappear” don’t
due to supposed importance

23. Adjacent Possible

24. Adjacent Possible
...a kind of shadow future, hovering
on the edges of the present state of
things, a map of all the ways in
which the present can reinvent itself
Steven Johnson

26. Ideas usually come at similar time
Who invented the telephone?

27. Enabling Technology
Existing technology that can be used
to build new technologies

28. Why was the computer
invented in the 1940s
and not in the 1840s?
Think about this!

29. Charles Babbage
worked on his
difference engine
and later
analytical engine
In 1822-1871

30. Ada Lovelace
influenced or even
conceived the concept ot
programmable computer

31. Adjacent Possible
The inventor must use the
components that exist in
his environment
Steven
Johnson

32. Image
source:
http://www.computersciencelab.com/ComputerHistory/HistoryPt4.htm
Vacuum tubes were used
to build computers

33. The Second Industrial Revolution
The period 1870-1914 shaw innovations in the chemical,
electric, petroleum and steel industries

34. Nikolai Kondratiev
Kondratiev waves are supposedly
cycle-like phenomena in the
modern world economy

35. Source:
Wikipedia,
Kondratiev
Wave
Kontrativ Wave

36. Source:
Wikipedia,
Kondratiev
Wave
Wave Years
1 First Industrial Revolution 1787–1842
2 Railroad and Steam Engine Era 1842–1897
3 Age of steel, electricity and internal combustion 1897–1939
4 War and Post-war Boom: Suburbia 1939–1982
5 Post Industrial Era: Information Technology 1982? – ??
Kontrativ Wave

37. The Prevailing Technology Trap
Current
and
dominant
technology
will
highly
influence
and
restrict
new
innovations

38. Technology Cramming

39. Technology Cramming

40. Two Waves of Products Development
In the first wave the product
is restricted by the
prevailing technology, but in
the second, there is
something new

41. Timeline
Each wave creates number of
new inventions

42. Timeline
Let’s play a game

43. Timeline when?
Submarine
Navigation
The Safe
Cork
Rubber eraser
The brick

44. -10.000 TODAY
The brick
-7000
Navigation
-4000
Cork
1695
The Safe
1844
Submarine
1775
Rubber eraser
1770
1000
The brick
The safe
Submarine
Rubber eraser
Navigation
Cork
slide rule
1624
Telescope
Ceramics
hourglass
Violin
Typewriter
Barbed wire
Telescope
1668
Violin
1548
Typewriter
1873
Barbed wire
1874
Hourglass
900
Ceramics
-6000

45. Next
L05 Innovation