Talk to media at FOJO climate competence workshop 22 Nov 2016

1. @owengaffney
Future Earth, director of communications
Stockholm Resilience Centre, director of international media
Speed, scale, connectivity
Welcome to the Anthropocene
Klimatkompetens

2. 4th November
Paris Agreement
comes into force
14th November
Global Carbon Budget released
8th November
Trump elected
14th November
Hottest year on record
20th November
Arctic sea ice
November rollercoaster

3. Global emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 36.3 ± 1.8 GtCO2 in 2015, 63% over 1990
Projection for 2016: 36.4 ± 2.3 GtCO2, 0.2% higher than 2015
Estimates for 2014 and 2015 are preliminary. Growth rate is adjusted for the leap year in 2016.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016
Uncertainty is ±5% for
one standard deviation
(IPCC “likely” range)
Emissions from fossil fuel use and industry

4. Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (absolute)
The top four emitters in 2015 covered 59% of global emissions
China (29%), United States (15%), EU28 (10%), India (6%)
Bunker fuels are used for international transport is 3.1% of global emissions.
Statistical differences between the global estimates and sum of national totals are 1.2% of global emissions.
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016

5. Top emitters: fossil fuels and industry (per dollar)
Emissions per unit economic output (emissions intensities) generally decline over time
China’s intensity is declining rapidly, but is still much higher than the world average
GDP are measured in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms in 2005 dollars.
Source: CDIAC; IEA 2015 GDP to 2013, IMF 2016 growth rates to 2015; Le Quéré et al 2016; Global Carbon Budget 2016

7. In the beginning…Our Garden of EdenIn the beginning…Our Garden of Eden
Photo: Mattias Klum

8. The Holocene - Humankinds 10 000 years of grace
Stockholm Resilience Centre and Rockström and others, Ecology and Society 2009:14
Photo: Michael A. Stecker

9. THINKING EXPONENTIALLY
Malmö
Copenhagen
New York
Around Earth 20 times
Mars
☐
☐
☐
☐
☐✚

10. Mars and creating a sustainable future for humanity
Image: 20th Century Fox

11. From a small world on a large planet …

12. To a large world on a small planet …

13. Living Planet Report - The trajectory for the future decline of
vertebrate wildlife populations is 67% by 2020

15. The great acceleration of the human enterprise
Image: GLOBAIASteffen, Broadgate, Deutsch, Gaffney, Ludwig. Anthropocene Review 2015

16. Tipping points: could Earth switch to a new state?

18. May 2014
“Catastrophic collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet
now underway, say scientists”

19. “Burning the currently attainable fossil-fuel
resources is sufficient to eliminate the ice
sheet”
58mSea-level rise

20. Tipping Points & the Paris Agreement
Sources: Adapted from Schellnhuber et al. (2016). Nature Climate Change

22. PreindustrialPre-industrial

23. 19501950

24. 19701970

25. 19901990

26. CurrentCurrent

27. Photo: Francois Mori/AP

28. An unprecedented opportunity for transformation
The UN Global Goals for Sustainable Development & the ratification of the Paris Climate Agreement
Photo: Trollbäck and

29. Fortress World or Global Goals?

30. The World in 2050 – Pathways to sustainable transformation

31. EMERGING
CARBON LAW
HALVING EMISSIONS EVERY DECADE
Moore’s Law for Carbon

32. Energy consumption by energy type
Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2015, with growth rates indicated for the more
recent period of 2010 to 2015
Source: BP 2016; Jackson et al 2015; Global Carbon Budget 2016

33. A global transformation – to a safe climate future
Rockström, Gaffney, Schellnhuber, Nakicenovic et al 2016

34. The Anthropocene Effect:
Speed, Scale, Connectivity, Surprise

36. “I’m sure glad that hole isn’t in our end.”
Trump economics

37. Cultural worldviews and risk: who fears what?
Hierarchist
Communitarian
Egalitarian
Individualist
Guns
Climate change
Nanotechnology
GM
Guns control
HPV vaccination
Abortion
Abortion
Climate change
Nano tech
GM
Gun control
HPV vaccination
Dan Kahan, Yale
No threat
Threat

38. Net zero emissions by 2050
Norway announces all new cars electric after 2025
Germany and Netherlands aim for 2030

39. Innovation in the Human Age
A new magazine from Future Earth | anthropocenemagazine.org

40. @owengaffney
Future Earth, director of communications
Stockholm Resilience Centre, director of international media
Speed, scale, connectivity
Welcome to the Anthropocene
Klimatkompetens