1. Thinking in Numbers
An Introduction to Critical Thinking with Statistics.
Edmund J Sutcliffe
edmunds@considrd.consulting
2. Critical Thinking
Critical thinking has seven critical features:
● being inquisitive and curious
● being open-minded to different sides
● being able to think systematically
● being analytical
● being persistent to truth
● being confident about critical thinking itself
● and lastly, being mature
Facione, Peter A.; Facione, Noreen C. (March 1993).
"Profiling critical thinking dispositions".
Assessment Update. 5 (2): 1–4.
doi:10.1002/au.3650050202. ISSN 1041-6099
3. Thinking in Numbers
A Statistical Approach
● Data collection
● Descriptive statistics
● Exploratory data analysis
● Estimation
● Hypothesis testing
Think Stats: Probability and Statistics for Programmers
Downey, Allen B (2014)
4. Data Collection
● Consider the question
● Consider the source (author, date, supporting evidence)
● Consider the bias
● Consider logical fallacies
● Consider the hypothesis
6. Trustable information
Most of us look for evidence of trustworthiness — of
● Competence
● Honesty
● Reliability
Onora O'Neill
7. The Question
Do first babies tend to arrive late?
● “My two friends that have given birth recently to their first babies, BOTH
went almost 2 weeks overdue before going into labour or being induced.”
● “My first one came 2 weeks late and now I think the second one is going to
come out two weeks early!!”
● “I don’t think that can be true because my sister was my mother’s first and
she was early, as with many of my cousins.”
8. Trustable information
Most of us look for evidence of trustworthiness — of
● Competence
● Honesty
● Reliability
Onora O'Neill
FAIL
Small number of observations
Selection bias
Confirmation bias
Inaccuracy
10. Consider the question
“What is the length of human gestation ?”
● The average length of human gestation is 280 days, or 40 weeks, from the first day of the
woman's last menstrual period. The medical term for the due date is estimated date of
confinement (EDC) Google's Featured Snippet from Victoria Govenment
● Birth normally occurs at a gestational age of about 40 weeks, though it is common for births to
occur from 37 to 42 weeks Wikipedia Article on Human Gestation
● The length of pregnancy can vary naturally by as much as five weeks, research suggests….
Due dates can be calculated from working out 280 days after the start of the woman's last
menstrual period BBC News Article
11. Consider the source
“What is the length of human gestation ?”
● Google's Featured Snippet from Victoria Govenment last edit August 2014 no mention source
● Wikipedia Article on Human Gestation last edit 30 January 2020 reporting American College of
Obstetricians and Gynecologists - How Your Baby Grows During Pregnancy FAQ answer no
mentioned source
● BBC News Article 7th August 2013 Study of 125 women reporting the journal of Human
Reproduction article produced by US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
12. Consider the source
“What is the length of human gestation ?”
● Google's Featured Snippet from Victoria Govenment last edit August 2014 no mention source
● Wikipedia Article on Human Gestation last edit 30 January 2020 reporting American College of
Obstetricians and Gynecologists - How Your Baby Grows During Pregnancy FAQ answer no
mentioned source
● BBC News Article 7th August 2013 Study of 125 women reporting the journal of Human
Reproduction article produced by US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences
Looks like 40 weeks (280 days)
13. The Question
Do first babies tend to arrive late?
● Gestation period against number of births
Vital Statistics Annual Report 2014, Births
14. The Question
Do first babies tend to arrive late?
● Gestation period against number of births
Vital Statistics Annual Report 2014, Births
FAIL No differentiation of
number of births
15. Can we find the Data
Live births by gestation by child number ?
● Where can we find appropriate data ?
● CDC National Survey of Family Growth
● https://github.com/datasets
● https://datahub.io/
● https://data.europa.eu/
● https://data.gov.ie/
● https://registry.opendata.aws
● https://cloud.google.com/public-datasets
● https://azure.microsoft.com/services/open-datasets/
● https://www.globalfinancialdata.com/
16. National Survey of Family Growth
● Cross-sectional
● Longitudinal
● Sample based
● Over sampled for some population members
● Interview based
18. How do we interpret the data ?
dictionary {
*****************************************************************
* NATIONAL SURVEY OF FAMILY GROWTH (NSFG), 2015-2017
* STATA Pregnancy Data Dictionary
*
* Warning: Edit this file at your own risk
*
*****************************************************************
_lines(1)
_column(1) long CASEID %5f "Case identification number"
_column(6) byte PREGORDR %2f "Pregnancy order (number)"
_column(8) byte HOWPREG_N %2f "BB-2 # of Weeks or Months Currently Pregnant"
_column(10) byte HOWPREG_P %1f "BB-2 Current pregnancy length reported in months
or weeks"
_column(11) byte MOSCURRP %1f "Number of Months Currently Pregnant"
_column(12) byte NOWPRGDK %1f "BB-3 Which Trimester -- Current Pregnancy"
_column(13) byte PREGEND1 %1f "BC-1 How Pregnancy Ended - 1st mention"
_column(14) byte PREGEND2 %1f "BC-1 How Pregnancy Ended - 2nd mention"
....
2015-17 Female Pregnacy Data Set Stata Dictionary
19. Choosing the Tool
● Python
○ Google's Colab python notebook platform
○ write your own
● R
● Stata/SPSS/SAS/Minitab
20. Are first babies more likely to be late
Sep 9, 2019
Allen Downey
21. Reporting the Results
● John Kreb's On Crisis
○ Consensus - What we might know
○ Uncertainty - What we don’t know
○ Confidence - What are we doing
○ Self-efficacy - What might the individual do
○ Flexibility - Things will change