What is next for the forestry sector

What is happening to
World’s forest?
Paul Young CPA CGA
May 7, 2021

Paul Young - Bio
• CPA, CGA
• Academia (PF1, FA4, FN2, MU1. and MS2)
• SME – Risk Management
• SME – Close, Consolidate and Reporting
• SME – Public Policy
• SME – Emerging Technology
• SME – Business Process Change
• SME – Financial Solutions
• SME – Macro/Micro Indicators
• SME – Supply Chain Management
Contact information: paul_young_cga@hotmail.com

Introduction
• Canada forestry sector is key sector to the Canadian Economy
• Canada forestry sector has faced protectionism policies -
https://www.canadianmanufacturing.com/financing/canfor-to-
curtail-operations-at-all-but-one-of-its-sawmills-in-british-columbia-
234114/
• The federal government under Justin Trudeau has done little to
support the forestry sector.
• Forest Management world-wide crisis
• Need for better urban planning

Agenda
• Commodity Prices
• Global Housing Market
outlook
• Housing Starts – North
America
• Merchandise Trade
• Wages / Forestry Sector
• Employment
• Issues facing Forestry
• Justin Trudeau and the
Forestry Sector
• Technology and Forestry Sector
• West Fraser and Forestry
• Carbon Sink
• Government Cutbacks and
Audits
Global deforestation
Poor urban planning
Eco-Terrorism
Automation / Forestry Management
Siberia
Forest Fires
California / Fires
What’s next

Commodity Prices
Source - https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/global-economics/commodity-price-index.html or
“Softwood lumber prices slowly recover from
recent lows: May 2019”
Source - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/softwood-
lumber-prices-slowly-recover-from-recent-lows-
may-2019/
Source
https://us.spindices.com/indices/
commodities/sp-gsci

Housing vs Lumber Costs
@SeanFraserMP
- cost of materials
- availability of land
- urban vs rural strategy
- cost of living
https://www.slideshare.n
et/paulyoungcga/housing
-cost-of-home-
ownership-canada-and-
the-usa-march-2021

Global Housing Outlook
Source - https://www.investmentexecutive.com/news/research-and-
markets/housing-market-to-take-step-back-in-2021-fitch/

Merchandise Trade
Source - Stats Canada

Forestry Sector (Wages)
Source - https://www.livingin-canada.com/salaries-for-forestry-professionals-canada.html or
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/190530/dq190530a-eng.htm
Average wages annually $52,800/year
• Forestry Sector pays between 25% to
70% higher wages than the service
sector
• Forestry sector personal income tax
ranges are between 35% to 40%

Forestry Employment
Source - https://cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/statsprofile/employment/ca

Issue facing Forestry
• Softwood Lumber dispute - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/overall-impact-of-softwood-lumber-dispute-minimal-for-
canada-economist~1108540 or https://www.globalwoodmarketsinfo.com/canada-has-filed-appeal-against-wtos-april-ruling-in-softwood-
lumber-dispute-with-us/
• Carbon Tax – Carbon tax is added on to the cost of production https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/commodities/video/applying-carbon-tax-
without-cutting-back-regulations-may-be-costly-jack-mintz~1649746
• High stumpage cost - https://www.timescolonist.com/business/teal-jones-shuts-down-logging-in-honeymoon-bay-citing-high-log-costs-
1.23841024
• Hydro Rates - https://www.drydennow.com/local/rickford-aims-to-cut-costs-for-forestry-sector
• Excessive regulations - http://www.chamber.ca/media/news-releases/Canada-competiveness-ranking-drops-4-spots-in-2-years/
• Small business tax reforms - https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/economics/video/cfib-concerned-by-potential-tax-hits-to-small-businesses-
in-2019~1560874
• Forestry losses - https://www.wri.org/blog/2020/06/global-tree-cover-loss-data-2019
• PBO / Tree Fund - https://www.570news.com/2021/01/28/liberals-two-billion-trees-promise-to-cost-2-78-billion-more-than-planned-pbo-
says/

Justin Trudeau and Forestry Sector
Source - https://www.sudbury.com/letters-to-the-editor/forest-industry-isnt-a-
priority-for-justin-trudeau-679008
“My predecessor wanted you
to know Canada for its
resources. I want you to know
Canadians for our
resourcefulness,” he said.
“Pulp and paper workers ask Trudeau to
fight for their jobs
”Source - https://unifor.org/en/whats-
new/news/pulp-and-paper-workers-ask-
trudeau-fight-their-jobs
Source – April 13, 2018

Technology / Forestry Sector
Source - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/how-technology-is-transforming-bcs-forest-industry-
5248/
• Investment into new technologies is revolutionizing the way Canada’s forest industry does business.
The federal government reports between 2005 and 2015, Canada’s forest industry cut its total energy use
by 31 per cent and reduced its greenhouse gas emissions by 49 per cent by generating bioenergy from
waste products and increasing energy efficiency.
• AI and Forestry - https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2018/09/ai-can-help-us-map-forests-down-to-
each-tree/
• Automation - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/fully-automated-applying-robotic-solutions-to-the-
sawmill/
• Supply Chain/Digital = https://www.poyry.com/news/articles/how-will-digitalisation-boost-
forestry-operations
• Analytics and Forestry Management - https://www.ibmbigdatahub.com/tag/6399

West Fraser Forestry
Source -
https://www.canadian
manufacturing.com/fina
ncing/west-fraser-says-
worst-of-its-b-c-mill-
cuts-done-after-wave-of-
curtailments-236315/

Softwood Lumber - History
Source - https://www.citynews1130.com/2019/09/04/b-c-lumber-
industry-celebrates-nafta-panel-decision-in-trade-dispute-with-us/

De-forestation
https://www.nationalge
ographic.com/environm
ent/global-
warming/deforestation/

Poor Urban Planning
• Governments around the world need to re-
think urban planning -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
/urban-planning-issues-facing-urban-
planners-april-2019 or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga
/urban-and-rural-planning-whats-next

Eco-Terrorism and other ignition points
There has been a rise in eco-terrorism
• Australia bushfires - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-50568026
• BC Wildfires - https://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/rcmp-say-arson-behind-29-okanagan-
wildfires-over-last-four-years
• Amazon - https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/the_americas/arsonists-are-torching-the-
amazon-this-elite-team-of-firefighters-stands-in-their-way/2019/10/08/525330f4-d8a8-11e9-a688-
303693fb4b0b_story.html
• California Appl Fire caused by a poorly maintained car -
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/08/04/apple-fire-at-26450-acres-relief-crews-for-weary-
firefighters-arriving/
• Oregon Fires - https://ktvz.com/news/fire/2020/07/28/three-suspicious-la-pine-area-wildfires-
investigated-as-arson-tips-sought/
Source - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/is-the-world-headed-to-more-ecoterrorism

Forestry Fires
Fire was purposely set/Eco-Terrorism
San Jose Fire/Cal Fire
Power Lines
Balloon collides with power line that sent sparks to
the ground
• Mitigation
• More insulation of wires - https://energized.edison.com/stories/insulated-wires-help-reduce-wildfire-
risk
• Use of AI and Data Analytics in terms of forest prevention/detection

Governmen
t Cutbacks
/
Environme
nt/ Audits
• Could it be the cuts in key areas along with poor urban planning makes the narrative for the govt
look good in terms pro climate change?
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/urban-planning-issues-facing-urban-planners-april-
2019 or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/forest-management-practices-world-april-2019
or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/environment-canada-whats-next
• Lack of a flood map - https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/ca/opinion/updated-flood-maps-
coming-to-canada-78259.aspx
• Rail and Fire - https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/sudbury/ontario-government-sues-cn-rail-for-
millions-in-firefighting-costs-1.2927083?fbclid=IwAR2_hehuCPiCxUrKa16hfbVhf1JXOT-
tkwRrNNTZwPu8FFnUxgVVLYx3198
• Parks Canada - https://www.hellulandnews.com/science/2017/8/21/the-failure-of-parks-canada
• Budget cuts – Feds - https://nationalpost.com/news/politics/federal-government-cutting-back-on-
disaster-assistance-as-floods-become-more-severe
• PQ Floods = https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/quebec-floods-recede-but-
competing-demands-fill-prevention-debate/article34981361/
• Wildfire mgmt. https://edmontonjournal.com/news/politics/alberta-premier-rachel-notley-
defends-cut-in-wildfire-budget
• Auditor/Tree planting - https://globalnews.ca/news/5201294/ontario-government-cancels-tree-
planting-
program/beta/?utm_expid=.kz0UD5JkQOCo6yMqxGqECg.1&utm_referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fww
w.google.com%2F “A spokeswoman for Natural Resources and Forestry Minister John
Yakabuski said the government is committed to balancing the budget in a responsible
manner. Justine Lewkowicz said in a statement that the forestry industry, which depends on a
sustainable supply of wood, is a responsible steward of the province’s forests. On average, the
forestry industry plants 68 million trees per year, creating jobs for foresters, nurseries, and
tree planters,” she wrote.” – This was make work project that never generated the benefits

Automation
• Using drones to plant trees - https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2020/06/flash-
forest-and-tree-planting-with-
drones.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed
%3A+blogspot%2Fadvancednano+%28nextbigfuture%29
• Innovation / planting - https://www.fastcompany.com/90504789/these-drones-
can-plant-40000-trees-in-a-month-by-2028-theyll-have-planted-1-billion
• Tree Planting / Drones -
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/world/treeplanting-drones-could-help-
restore-world-s-forests-a4116376.html

Canada Boreal Forest
• Canada’s boreal forest make up 9% of the world forest -
https://www.nrcan.gc.ca/our-natural-resources/forests-
forestry/how-much-forest-does-canada-have/17601

Siberia
• Eco-Terrorism - https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/04/29/siberian-officials-
suspected-of-starting-wildfires-a70137
• Lighting strikes - https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-49125391 or Zombie fires -
https://eos.org/articles/the-rise-of-zombie-fires
• Forest management practices -
https://www.euractiv.com/section/biomass/news/forestry-seen-as-key-to-russian-
climate-change-efforts/ or https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2019-08-
21/russia-siberia-forest-fires-policy-change

Forest Fires – BC and California
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/paul-young-055632b_blog-forestry-management-and-california-
activity-6703181159909724160-qWzg
I think all levels of government need to take a hard look at how they managed their forest to mitigate
the impacts of wildfires

Audits
• Significant financial-control weaknesses / NS Forestry and Land -
https://globalnews.ca/news/6095967/nova-scotia-auditor-general-financial-report/
• Forestry Management / City of Toronto -
https://globalnews.ca/news/5221912/toronto-forestry-crews-audit/
• Audit – Clear Cut and Water Management - https://thenarwhal.ca/muddied-waters-
how-clearcut-logging-is-driving-a-water-crisis-in-b-c-s-interior/
• Tree planning / Corporations - https://www.terracestandard.com/news/skeena-
sawmills-in-terrace-contracts-local-firms-for-2020-reforestation-projects/
• Timber Audits -
https://www2.gnb.ca/content/gnb/en/news/news_release.2020.10.0543.html
• Australia - https://www.smh.com.au/environment/conservation/multiple-problems-
with-state-logging-agency-damning-audit-reveals-20201008-p563dj.html

California / Fires
Source - https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-09-11/california-wildfires-climate-change-gavin-
newsom-trump
• California has done poor job with management of its forests - With CA ablaze, Newsom blasts Trump admin
for failing to fight climate change Source - https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/05/14/californias-government-
solely-responsible-for-states-forest-management-and-wildfire-debacle/
It is time to for governments to bring in better forest mgmt. practices
• https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/fiscal-and-economic-management-state-and-local-government-
united-states

LPC / Tree Planting
• https://tnc.news/2020/11/02/government-says-no-plan-or-budget-for-trudeaus-two-billion-trees-
promise/
More lies from the Liberals under @JustinTrudeau and @cafreeland when it comes to the
environment
Here is my work on the environment - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/clean-technology-
and-the-green-economy-what-is-next (see slide 53 and 57)

Latest / Softwood Lumber
• Duties – Softwood - https://www.supplypro.ca/canada-calls-us-softwood-
lumber-duties-unfair/
• USA Commerce and Softwood Lumber -
https://www.woodworkingnetwork.com/news/woodworking-industry-
news/commerce-lowers-canadian-softwood-lumber-duties-reactions-mixed
• USA and Trade - https://biv.com/article/2020/11/biden-will-be-better-
canadian-resource-exports-analysts-say

What’s next
• All level of governments need to work on integrated strategy for Forestry including streamlining regulations, tax fairness, hydro, fees, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/2019-election-canada-and-global-competitiveness-may-2019
• GDP - https://www2.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/gdp-and-fiscal-management-canada-september-2020
• Next government needs to push for reforms at WTO including a better dispute mechanism, reduction in protectionism policies, etc. -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/why-do-we-need-the-wto
• The next government needs to stop looking for ways to tax business, i.e. carbon tax or plastic tax or other taxes. – There is a need to reform government -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/how-to-reform-local-and-municipal-government
• More balance to support natural resources in a sustainable way - GDP growth pre-COVID was running at 2.0% which is about the same rate as the past 20 years -
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-slow-growth-liberal-party-of-canada-december-7-2016 Trudeau introduce policies that did little to get goods to market or
support small business - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-whats-next-for-small-business or https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-natural-
resources-sector-whats-next
• The next government needs to focus on port expansion as part of supporting getting goods to market.
• Investors - https://www.thewhig.com/commodities/agriculture/investors-skittish-on-lumber-companies-despite-record-prices/wcm/390e2df1-e966-4ac5-a307-
99b6a3a84667?video_autoplay=true
• Thinning trees - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/better-forest-management-means-thinning-trees-and-will-cost-billions-of-dollars-11602685924
• Climate activism focus on the worse scenarios to push their agenda - https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/canada-clean-technolgy-and-the-green-economy or
https://www.slideshare.net/paulyoungcga/the-real-truth-about-emissions-and-carbon-taxation
• All Governments need to re-look at their forest management practices - https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/2020/05/how-states-pay-for-natural-
disasters-in-an-era-of-rising-costs
• BC - https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2020/10/15/horgan-commits-to-paradigm-shift-in-old-growth-forest-management.html
• Quebec / Forest Management - https://www.woodbusiness.ca/mei-quebecs-forest-management-is-leaving-money-on-the-table/

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