From the Priori Data "How to Conquer the App Store" Meetup Event, held July 23rd, 2015 in Berlin.
Presentation contains detailed data and statistics around app store downloads, revenue, and Top Chart ranks.
4. AN INTRODUCTION
Any Idea What This Is?
4
+14
%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
5. AN INTRODUCTION
Any Idea What This Is?
5
Every day
500 new apps
enter the App Store
(and 100 new
publishers)
Avg. # of Apps (per month)
+14
%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
6. AN INTRODUCTION
How About This?
6
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
+3%
7. AN INTRODUCTION
How About This?
7
Average Monthly
Downloads
are flat
Since Sep. 2014
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Avg. Monthly Downloads
+3%
8. AN INTRODUCTION
The Result is More Competition
8
+14
%
More
(and higher quality)
Companies are
Fighting for the
Same Users
Increased Supply, Flat Demand
+3%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
120%
125%
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June
Avg. Monthly Downloads Avg. # of Apps
9. 9
If there was ever a traditional App Store
narrative of bright fluffy clouds…
10. …it is most definitely a
thing of the past.
(except for about ~300
companies, more on that
later)
12. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Downloads are 36% Gaming,
12
Top Downloaded Categories
(YTD 2015)
Jan 1 – June 30 2015
64%
36%
App Categories Game Categories
13. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Downloads are 36% Gaming, but Gaming most Volatile Growth
13
Top Downloaded Categories
(YTD 2015)
Quarterly Download Growth by Category
(Q2 2015 vs. Q1 2015)
Jan 1 – June 30 2015
Top 5 Categories
+12%
Bottom 5
Categories -8%
64%
36%
App Categories Game Categories
14. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Revenues are 57% Gaming,
14
Top Revenue Categories
(YTD 2015)
43%
57%
App Categories Game Categories
Jan 1 – June 30 2015
15. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Revenues are 57% Gaming, but Non-Gaming have 3 of Top 5 growers
15
Top Revenue Categories
(YTD 2015)
Quarterly Revenue Growth by Category
(Q2 2015 vs. Q1 2015)
Top 5 Categories
+27%
Bottom 5
Categories -15%
43%
57%
App Categories Game Categories
Jan 1 – June 30 2015
16. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Downloads are 50% China & US,
16
Top Downloaded Countries
(YTD 2015)
Jan 1 – June 30 2015
26%
24%
50%
US China All Others
17. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Downloads are 50% China & US, but no country is growing >4%
17
Top Downloaded Countries
(YTD 2015)
Quarterly Downloads by Country
(Q2 2015 vs. Q1 2015)
Jan 1 – June 30 2015
Top 5
Countries
+3%
Bottom 5
Countries
-5%
26%
24%
50%
US China All Others
18. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Revenue is US heavy,
18
Top Revenue Countries
(YTD 2015)
Jan 1 - June 30th 2015
51%
2%
47%
US China All Others
19. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Revenue is US heavy, Growth is Mixed Across Emerging/Developed
19
Top Revenue Countries
(YTD 2015)
Quarterly Revenue by Country
(Q2 2015 vs. Q1 2015)
Jan 1 - June 30th 2015
Top 5
Countries
+5%
Bottom 5
Countries
-3%
51%
2%
47%
US China All Others
20. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
Some Things Change, Some Things Stay The Same...
20
• Revenue is growing faster than downloads in most categories, suggesting better
monetization strategies and/or more consumer willingness to pay
• The United States is still the largest revenue market (by a factor of 4x), and
Japan and the UK are both larger than China by revenue
• Demand growth (downloads and revenues) is no longer just geography
specific. It is rather defined by consumer trends for certain types of apps in local
geographic markets
21. And how does this distill to the individual
publisher level?
22. MACRO TRENDS IN THE APP STORE
300 Publishers Command 85% of Downloads and 72% of Revenue
22
Top 100 Publishers
Publishers 101 - 200
Publishers 201 - 300
Everyone Else
% of Store
Downloads
% of Store Revenue
72% 59%
9% 8%
5% 5%
14% 28%
Out of 475k active app publishers….
Based on June 2015
0.1%
24. So we‘ve seen demand is flattening while
app supply continues to increase.
What‘s key to breaking through?
25. And how does this distill to the individual
publisher level?
Visibility
26. 26
STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS
The PRIORI DATA Top Chart Framework
The three questions we ask to measure visibility (and success) of an app in
the App Store Top Charts:
"Who gets in?"
"Where do they land?"
"How long do they stay?"
27. STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS
Part 1: Who Gets In?
27
186
97
180
115
194
123
301
291
303
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
DE US GB
Free Charts Paid Charts
Daily # of New Apps in Top 200
~300 New Apps
Achieve a Top 200
Category Position
Every Day.
Top 50 positions
command ~85% of all
Category downloads.
28. STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS
Part 2: Where do They Land?
28
Landing Ranks for New Apps
51%
25%
14%
6%
4%
27%
24%
26%
16%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
>150 [100,150] [50,100] [20,50)] <20
Average Free App Average Paid App
Only 4% of free apps
arrive in a Top 20
position
Paid apps are 2x as
likely to appear in a
Top 100 position vs.
free apps
29. STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS
Part 3: How Long Do They Stay?
29
Average Length of Stay per New App
3%
7%
41%
49%
1%
3%
71%
25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
>2 weeks 1-2 weeks <1 week one day
Average Free App Average Paid App
50% of new free apps
are in and out of the
charts within 1 day,
and 90% within 1
week.
Only 4% of new apps
last more than 2
weeks in the charts.
That’s 350 a month,
globally.
30. STATE-OF-THE-TOP CHARTS
Implications for App Publishers
30
• Yes, new apps can claim space in the precious Top Charts.
• The core question is not whether you can get in, but rather how long you can last.
• Failure is expensive: UA costs continue to go up - FIKSU: $3 per install for free to
play games.
• Do the research, set expectations right: There is no reason to be taken by
surprise. Data can give you an indication as to your entry costs and ultimate market
size.
• Data alone won’t do it. You need people who can phrase the right questions: What
is our optimal rank, where is local demand for our niche app on the rise? What is the
necessary budget to reach our goal?
33. RE-EMERGENCE OF THE LONG TAIL
Indie App Developers Grow in Numbers and Revenues
33
In 9 months, nearly 600 new developers have entered the >1k/month revenue bracket.
# and % Increase of Developers per Income Bracket
Source: Priori Data and Pollen.VC
18,295
4,436
5,808
900 813
18,615
4,609
5,815
917 839
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
$1,000-$5,000 $5,000-$10,000 $10,000-$50,000 $50,000-$100,000 $100,000-$500,000
Sep. 2014 Jun. 2015
35. A RALLYING CRY FOR BERLIN!
What We Believe
35
• The market imbalances we see are the consequence of flaws in the industry
• Lack of access to competitive benchmarking and market data perpetuates these
imbalances
• Data itself is a commodity, but access to the data is unequal. Only companies
with $$$$$$ can get access in today’s app economy
36. A RALLYING CRY FOR BERLIN!
We Are Changing The Status Quo
36
• We want to play a transformational role in breaking the barriers of exclusivity
and “pay-to-play” models that are plaguing our industry.
• In the era of big data and the sharing economy, it is time for a new approach.
We want to define it together with the leading mobile minds in Berlin.
Growth most volatile in Gaming Categories. Growth generally flat across Non-Gaming
Role Playing Game growth primarily driven by a huge trend around this in Asia – particularly Japan, China
Growth most volatile in Gaming Categories. Growth generally flat across Non-Gaming
Role Playing Game growth primarily driven by a huge trend around this in Asia – particularly Japan, China
Revenue Growth in Entertainment driven primarily by HBO NOW (according to our data) 14.99 for HBO NOW
Revenue Growth in Entertainment driven primarily by HBO NOW (according to our data) 14.99 for HBO NOW
Here, you might want to add that China will very soon be a larger market than the US in regards to downloads.
Might want to make a comment on the impact of iPhone launches and that there has not been any. We expect this to change dramatically in Q3 where en iPhone++ (or whatever will be launched).
Here, you might want to add that China will very soon be a larger market than the US in regards to downloads.
Might want to make a comment on the impact of iPhone launches and that there has not been any. We expect this to change dramatically in Q3 where en iPhone++ (or whatever will be launched).
For this slide you might want to add that Japan commands 16% of App Store Revenue YTD . Then UK, Canada, and...China
For this slide you might want to add that Japan commands 16% of App Store Revenue YTD . Then UK, Canada, and...China