In 2012, about 150,000,000 people in the US had read a book in the past 12 months (Pew). I offered here that the shift from physical books to digital commerce and ebooks is really an oft-discussed red herring -- one that distracts publishers from developing the audience-centric mindset to seek, synthesize, and act on new types of (primarily consumer) data to serve authors by finding more of that massive population of readers. A year and half later, many more are seeking. I hope they are finding.
SEO Master Class - Steve Wiideman, Wiideman Consulting Group
The Consumer Data that Matters Now – Publishers Launch BEA 2013
1. The Consumer Data that Matters
Now
Publishers Launch Conference, BookExpo America
May 29, 2013
Peter McCarthy
2. Executive Summary
There are known knowns. These are things we know that
we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say,
there are things that we know we don't know. But there
are also unknown unknowns. There are things we don't
know we don't know.
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 3
3. Contents
» Baseline
» The types of things we know well
» What we don’t know
» Why what we know isn’t enough
» What we can know much better
How: a hypothetical use case
» What it may mean
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 4
4. Baseline
(who I am, what I talk about when I talk about data, today’s goal)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 5
5. Who am I
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 6
6. Who am I
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 7
7. Consumer marketing data today (and yesterday)
» Demographics
Gender, age group, income level,
education level, etc.
Note: I include geographic region here
» Psychographics
Beliefs, values, attitudes, opinions,
“lifestyles”
» Behaviors
What people have done, are doing, and
are most likely to do next
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 8
8. Consumer marketing data
Consumer-Focused
1. Who
2. What
3. Why
Results-Oriented
Product
Place
4. Where
5. When
6. How
Price
Promotion
Measured
What’s working
What’s not
Optimization
?
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 9
9. My goal
» Offering the suggestion that we understand our business well
enough today
» That we understand core book buyers pretty well
» Advancing these hypotheses:
That we reach many readers with books they do not want
That there are far more potential readers for each book we
publish than we do reach
That this happens because of the percentage of time we spend
looking at different types of data
» Offering a suggestion on what we might do, how, and with
what results for earned, paid, and owned marketing efforts
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 10
10. The types of things we know well
(A lot about books, the book marketplace, reader personae)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 11
11. US trade book sales continue shift online…
Net Sales ($B)
6.93
2011 2012
Source: 2013 Bookstats
Brick & Mortar
8.03
Net Sales ($B)
7.47
2011 2012
5.72
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 12
12. …and to eBooks, though more slowly this year
64
eBook Net Sales ($M)
Logarithmic regression: R2=0.7853
291
869
2,109
3,042
+199%
+143%
+43%
+355%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Source: 2013 Bookstats
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 13
13. eBook sales vary by category
1,291
1,831
Adult
Fiction
Source: 2013 Bookstats
46
eBook Net Sales ($M)
198
585
216
484
469
592
Adult
Nonfiction
2010 2011 2012
Juvenile
Fiction
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 14
14. This data is required to manage our businesses
» And there is much more than just the Bookstats data I’ve gone over
here
» We also know a great deal based on our own internal data
» We also watch aggregate consumer trends and use digital platforms
to derive insights
» Result:
Informs strategy, aiding primarily in macro, strategic decision-making
We still can’t predict the future: all eBook projections way off…
Etc.
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 15
15. The book buyer
» Peter Hildick-Smith of Codex
took a look at 30k past 12
month book buyers and
asked:
» “Where did find out about the
book you last bought?”
31%
5%
6%
14%
10%
Physical Retailer
Reccomendations
Analog Publicity
4th Online Media
Online Booksellers
A Very Nice Find » 13% of readers recommend to 38%
Source: Challenges to Book Discovery, DBW 2013
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 16
16. The eBook Reader and “Power Buyer”
BISG’s “Power Buyer”
Has created the personae of the
“power buyer”
17% of whom report acquiring “at
least weekly”
Skews female (it’s a not a he or a
she, it’s a blend)
Cluster in the 18 – 55 range
Are well off, professionals, many
clerical workers, and homeworkers
Favor eBooks over physical
Many shifting toward tablets and, it
seems, reading less
Preferred tablet becoming iPad
They as for top acquisition source
(results to right)
How Acquired?
Power
Reader
Standard
Reader
0% 50% 100%
Amazon
Barnes & Noble
Apple iBooks
Library or Library
Site
eBooks.com
Google
Source: 2013 BISG Consumer Attitudes toward E-Books
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 17
17. The “book and eBook reader”
» Reading and eReading habits
75% of the US population 16 and over reads
33% of that group had ether an eReader or a Tablet
67% of book readers said they had read one in the past 12
months
23% 16 and over had read a book
A lot on demographics
67% of US book readers age >16 report they
Have read a book in the past 12 months
=
~157,754,850 potential consumers
Source: Pew
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 18
18. What we don’t know
(Most of which won’t hurt us)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 19
19. Precise eBook market dynamics…
eBook Market Share Market Dynamics
“Conventional Wisdom”
64%
22%
10%
3%
Amazon Nook
Apple iBooks Other
• Conclusive Data on
Pricing
Lots of energy. smart thinking,
and facts, but…
• The Effects of Self-publishing
Huge. ISBN registrations
through Bowker + unknown
masses of KDP authors.
Strong belief they drive the
average bestseller price
down…strong
• Much at all about Apple
Surprising, given all the fuss.
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 20
20. “Real” consumers
» That consumer for that book
» Enough of an understanding and approach on the spectrum
of consumer relationships and how to have them
» We don’t know most of those 150M potential consumers
Well-known
Lightly
touched,
slightly
known
Currently
Unknown but
Interesting
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 21
21. Why it isn’t enough
(hypothesis: it is what we need, just not all of what we need)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 22
22. The industry is making a fairly smooth shift…
Total US Trade Revenue with eBook Revenue Nested ($M)
2010 2011 2012
But we’ve mostly managed to stay afloat while others have thrived…
Source: BISG Trends; Bookstats
16,000
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
eBooks Print
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 23
23. Unfair comp 1: Amazon share price: May ‘08 – May ‘13
$78.45 / SHARE
$269.07 / SHARE
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
300
200
100
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 24
24. Unfair comp #2: iPad growth 2010 – Q1 2013
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 25
25. Unfair comp #3: Apple profits, same period
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 26
26. In the end, here’s why I think what we know isn’t enough
» We need to be demonstrably the best at connecting authors and
their titles to the most, most right readers – efficiently and repeatedly
» What we know today allows us to run our businesses and manage a
shift. That alone is no small feat…but…
» Basically, we’re surrounded…
Except if we can better reach those …
157,754,850 potential consumers
May9, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 27
27. What we can know much better
(hypothesis: it’s easier than we think)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 28
28. More about every potential reader
» Demographics
» Psychographics
» Behaviors
By using the consumer data that we do have
But vastly increasing our efforts around
augmenting that with “raw” consumer data
Using tools to systematize and, if possible,
scale the knowledge and efforts
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 29
29. Some (really useful) sources of consumer data
Social Graph
They know consumers.
Now tying to offline sources.
Ad Platform
Open (APIs, Tools) and
Optimized.
Constant A/B testing
Fail fast, fix.
Result: Happy Users/Advertisers
Despite incredible concerns over
privacy. Relevance trumps it.
Search (& lots else)
Massive share, joyous
users.
Ad Platform
Still the of ad inventory at an
all time high.
Literally Building a Brain
Yes. All products data-driven
.
Open
APIs and tools
Massive growth
Wild adoption and usage.
Ad Platform
Targeting getting there but
they know what they need to
know.
Timely
Almost “now.”
Open (for now)
Can get at the data.
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 30
30. Obviously great tools for outbound marketing
» And outbound best practices must be understood to best
execute
» However, it is when we
Use them in specific public-facing ways…
turn them around and extract consumer data…
and mash that data with other sources of data…
» That we can triangulate a potential consumer-set vis-à-vis the
three attributes we need to market most effectively…
» Then we’ve got who, what, when, where, how, and why we
need to put the right message in front of the right person at
the right place at the right time
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 31
31. How: Big data, little data…right data, right time…
Big Data
Enterprise-scale tools
Batch data extraction via
APIs
Used for listening, real-time
platform monitoring
Marketing automation
Business intelligence
dashboards and mash-ups
Decision support,
exceptions reporting
Data-warehousing
Report generation
More…
Lighter-weight tools to
support same tactics
Require “cobbling” to
triangulate multiple data
points
But…
Are readily accessible,
easy-to-use, require less
organizational change…
And they work
Are not mutually exclusive – in fact, employing both is a best practice
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 32
32. FWIW: I use a subset of ~100 tools to triangulate, plan & execute
Social Analytics
Simply Measured
Peek Anaytics
SproutSocial
Trackur
Tweriod
Tweepi
Buffer + Bit.ly
Twitter Ad Interface
Etc.
Facebook Insights
Facebook Ad
Interface
Facebook
PowerEditor to
Create Audiences
Facebook Lookalike
Audiences
EdgeRank Checker
LinkedIn Ad Editor
Pinterest Analytics
Google Alerts
Goodreads comp
authors
Etc.
Web/SEO
Support Tools
Google Trends
Google AdWords
Keyword / Placement
Suggestion Tool
Amazon search autofill
Google search autofill
Compete
Quantcast
SEO Moz
SEO Quake
Google universal analytics
Amazon search auto-fill
Amazon comp authors
Librarything tags
Google search auto-fill
Etc.
Excel Plugins
Various Web Us
IFTT
Lots of Chrome Extensions/Apps
Others
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 33
33. Some Use Cases
(hypothesis: sample triangulating)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 34
42. Then a bunch more till there’s “enough to go on” then..
» Map to internal data (sales, etc.)
» Ensure goals understood
» Align everything with attributes
Meta-data through to creative
» Put all measurement in place
Google goals, affiliate tracking, etc.
» Create light execution plan
Specifics differ but works
for inbound/outbound,
earned, paid, “rented”, etc.
Four Phases: foundation, tactical growth,
pruning, communicate
» Launch
» Optimize/Prune
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 43
43. What it May Mean
(hypothesis: all in the eye of the beholder…)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 44
44. Constant triangulation – however you can do it
The smart business of the future will correlate
and compute a mix of data including
demographics, psychographics, web analytics,
social analytics and business intelligence to
create predictive scenarios that can be delivered
in real time at the point of need.
-- Paul Simbeck-Hampson
Marketing Consultant
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 45
46. Some will have a harder time than others
C-Level misalignment
Over-emphasis on attribution
direct ROI out of the gates
Over emphasis on “owning the
relationship”
There is a range of
relationships and knowing
them (and that they know
you is pretty good)
Over-emphasis on creative
planning
Overly concerned with beginning
thinking with the “what” not the
“who”
Allow for marketing budgets that
can “move”
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 47
47. Skillsets, experience, orientation, or willingness key
Q. What challenges does your company face with data management?
Source: The Soda Report, 2013
Challenge
Data Collection 36%
Data entry 9%
Data storage 7%
Data search 14%
Data sharing 16%
Data analysis 54%
Data cleansing 30%
Creating value/insights 49%
Other 6%
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 48
48. Publishers as best connector of book to reader results from:
» Being marketing scientists, marketing quants, or getting some
They are very useful.
Understand that search and social are consumer activities/tools but
business ones as well. Heavy duty ones. Like coop. Remember coop?
» Obtaining true, live consumer insights
In the wild, as they’re behaving, living, speaking up.
» Taking action based on their own knowledge + data
» Optimizing
» Lather, rinse, repeat
» Market the marketing all along the way (because they know what
happened)
Expanded reach beyond core book buyers
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 49
49. And if you can scale it…
» The Ever-Learning Marketer or Marketing Organization
Puts the right book in front of the right consumer at the right time
Optimizes marketing spend
Improves stakeholder relations through rich communication, clear
accountability, and an abundance of creativity (there’s a lot in the data!)
Does this in partnership with other areas and eventually improves the
entire organization's capabilities, cross-pollinating learning
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 50
50. Smarter, ever-improving marketing at scale
To become a chess grandmaster also
seems to take about ten years. (Only
the legendary Bobby Fisher got to that
elite level in less than that amount of
time: it took him nine years.) And what’s
ten years? Well, it’s roughly how long it
takes to put in ten thousand hours of
hard practice. Ten thousand hours is
the magic number of greatness.” —
p. 41, Outliers
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 51
51. Thank you very much
(hypothesis: probably one or two too many slides…)
May 29, 2013 Consumer Data - PubLaunch BEA 52
52. The Consumer Data that Matters
Now
Publishers Launch Conference, BookExpo America
May 29, 2013
Peter McCarthy