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frog IoT Big Design IoT World Congress 2015

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HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE
DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE NEED TO MANUFACTURE

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frog IoT Big Design IoT World Congress 2015

  1. 1. BIG DESIGN: HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE NEED TO MANUFACTURE PATRICK KALAHER VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY frog
  2. 2. BIG DESIGN: HOW SYSTEMS OF SYSTEMS ARE CHANGING WHAT WE’RE DESIGNING, AND WHAT WE NEED TO MANUFACTURE PATRICK KALAHER VP OF TECHNOLOGY STRATEGY frog
  3. 3. As products, buildings, and infrastructure 
 get smarter, more connected, and data-rich, design must expand from a singular focus 
 on discrete things and structures towards 
 the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent, and interdependent systems. This talk will showcase what frog sees as the emerging conceptual architecture of Big Design, and give examples of how this is changing what, and how, we make things. TODAY 2
  4. 4. “We need to shrink our PDLC from 7 years to 3 years.” — EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING COMPANY 3
  5. 5. WE SHRUNK THE PDLC, BUT THE CUSTOMER ISN’T BUYING MICROSCOPES ANYMORE. OH MY 4
  6. 6. OH MY SCIENTISTS WANT TO ANALYZE IMAGES OF CELLS. 5
  7. 7. OH MY IMAGE ACQUISITION & MANIPULATION STORAGE COLLABORATION SOFTWARE TO AID IN ANALYSIS & WORKFLOW 6
  8. 8. OH MY “YOU’RE ACTUALLY IN THE IMAGING SYSTEMS BUSINESS NOW.” ALONG WITH DOZENS OF OTHER COMPANIES. 7
  9. 9. SO, WHAT’S IT GOING TO TAKE TO BE GOOD AT THIS?
  10. 10. “What do you mean there’s no such thing as Zero Defect software?” — EXECUTIVE AT SCIENTIFIC MICROSCOPE MANUFACTURING COMPANY 9
  11. 11. As products, buildings, and infrastructure get smarter, more connected and data-rich, design must expand from a singular focus on discrete things and structures towards the design of adaptive, modular, intelligent, and interdependent context—where things, services, people, and places are always already connected in direct and oblique ways. Big Design uses design and engineering to 
 shape connected, intelligent systems that bridge 
 the human, enterprise, and urban—or even planetary — scale. SHIFT OF VALUE TO THE SYSTEM, AWAY FROM THE DEVICE INFRASTRUCTURE ENTERPRISE PERSONALHUMAN SCALE DISCRETE LINKED, LAYERED WEARABLE MOBILE DEVICE CAR BUILDING COMPLEX DISTRICT CITY REGION PLANETURBAN SCALE 10
  12. 12. 11
  13. 13. 11
  14. 14. 13
  15. 15. MUCH MORE 
 ABOUT THIS LATER 14
  16. 16. TOTAL RUBBISH? 15
  17. 17. TOTAL RUBBISH? 15
  18. 18. TOTAL RUBBISH? MEET BRUNO. FIXES PROBLEMS YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU HAD. CREATES NEW ONES. 15
  19. 19. TOTAL RUBBISH? MEET BRUNO. FIXES PROBLEMS YOU DIDN’T KNOW YOU HAD. CREATES NEW ONES. 15
  20. 20. DUMB RUBBISH? 16
  21. 21. SMARTBELLY, 
 BIGBELLY SOLAR SMART RUBBISH? 17
  22. 22. IT’S A SERIES OF PROCESSES AND SYSTEMS 18 Waste Collection Services Composting Recycling Other Processing Activities Production SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal Waste Recovery
  23. 23. BIGBELLY
 “BigBelly uses solar power 
 for 100% of its energy needs 
 for trash compacting. The unit takes up as much space as the "footprint" of an ordinary receptacle—but its capacity 
 is five times greater. Increased capacity reduces collection trips and can cut fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions 
 by 80%.” www.bigbelly.com 19 Waste Collection Services Composting Recycling Other Processing Activities Production SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal Waste Recovery IT’S GOT TO BE MUCH BETTER IN ORDER TO BE WORTH DOING
  24. 24. BIGBELLY
 “BigBelly uses solar power 
 for 100% of its energy needs 
 for trash compacting. The unit takes up as much space as the "footprint" of an ordinary receptacle—but its capacity 
 is five times greater. Increased capacity reduces collection trips and can cut fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions 
 by 80%.” COST EFFICIENCY www.bigbelly.com 19 Waste Collection Services Composting Recycling Other Processing Activities Production SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal Waste Recovery IT’S GOT TO BE MUCH BETTER IN ORDER TO BE WORTH DOING
  25. 25. BIGBELLY
 “BigBelly uses solar power 
 for 100% of its energy needs 
 for trash compacting. The unit takes up as much space as the "footprint" of an ordinary receptacle—but its capacity 
 is five times greater. Increased capacity reduces collection trips and can cut fuel use and greenhouse gas emissions 
 by 80%.” COST MANUFACTURING 
 COMPLEXITY DESIGN
 COMPLEXITY DESIGN
 COMPLEXITY OPERATIONAL
 COMPLEXITY COST EFFICIENCY www.bigbelly.com 19 Waste Collection Services Composting Recycling Other Processing Activities Production SortingSorting SortingFinal Disposal Waste Recovery IT’S GOT TO BE MUCH BETTER IN ORDER TO BE WORTH DOING
  26. 26. OH MY “YOU’RE ACTUALLY IN THE BIG DESIGN BUSINESS NOW.” ALONG WITH EVERYONE ELSE IN MANUFACTURING. 20
  27. 27. SO, WHAT’S IT GOING TO TAKE TO BE GOOD AT THIS?
  28. 28. 22 DESIGN PRINCIPLES ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY EXPERIENCE STRATEGY 22
  29. 29. DESIGN PRINCIPLES ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY EXPERIENCE STRATEGY 23
  30. 30. 1. 24 DESIGN PRINCIPLES INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE 2. DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY 3. HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
  31. 31. “Von Neumann had one piece of advice for us: 
 not to originate anything.” This helped put the IAS project in the lead. “One of the reasons our group was successful, and got a big jump on others, was that we set up certain limited objectives, namely that we would not produce any new elementary components.” adds Bigelow. “We would try and use the ones which were available for standard communications purposes. We chose vacuum tubes which were in mass production, and very common types, so that we could hope to get reliable components, and not have to go into component research.” DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE 25
  32. 32. DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE 26Source: Nascent Objects
  33. 33. DESIGN PRINCIPLES: INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE 26Source: Nascent Objects
  34. 34. DESIGN PRINCIPLES: DESIGN FOR CHEAP MODULARITY Source: Nascent Objects 27 COST MANUFACTURING 
 COMPLEXITY DESIGN
 COMPLEXITY
  35. 35. DESIGN PRINCIPLES: HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES 28 MORAVEC’S PARADOX
 “The hard problems are easy, 
 the easy problems are hard.”
 —Stephen Pinker POLANYI’S PARADOX
 “The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in Motorcar Theory.” www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series Physical Self Monitoring and Regulation ‘Robot Farming’ Human Involvement Cognitive/Physical Workload Remote Monitoring and Controlling Non-Creative Mental Work-Managing Robots/Machines High Percentage of Physical Labor Cognitive 3 6 n Future Tomorrow Today 80s 60s<1 1
  36. 36. 29www.blog.kinaxis.com/2014/10/humans-inloop-part-3-kinaxis-cognizant-series DESIGN PRINCIPLES: HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES MORAVEC’S PARADOX
 “The hard problems are easy, 
 the easy problems are hard.”
 —Stephen Pinker POLANYI’S PARADOX
 “The skill of a driver cannot be replaced by a thorough schooling in Motorcar Theory.” Physical Self Monitoring and Regulation ‘Robot Farming’ Human Involvement Cognitive/Physical Workload Remote Monitoring and Controlling Non-Creative Mental Work-Managing Robots/Machines High Percentage of Physical Labor Cognitive 3 6 n Future Tomorrow Today 80s 60s<1 1 Physical Self Monitoring and Regulation ‘Robot Farming’ Human Involvement Cognitive/Physical Workload Remote Monitoring and Controlling Non-Creative Mental Work-Managing Robots/Machines High Percentage of Physical Labor Cognitive 3 6 n Future Tomorrow Today 80s 60s<1 1
  37. 37. 30 HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
  38. 38. INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE DESIGN 
 FOR CHEAP MODULARITY HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
  39. 39. DESIGN PRINCIPLES ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY EXPERIENCE STRATEGY 32
  40. 40. ARCHITECTURE 1. THERE ARE THREE SCALES OF 
 BIG DESIGN 2. DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED 3. RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE 33
  41. 41. BIG DESIGN AT THREE SCALES UNIT SCALE Constrained systems 
 for specialized needs; constrained by compute, network, or power capabilities. • System on Chip • Wireless Sensors • Energy Harvesting LOCAL SCALE Edge compute systems 
 for real time needs; general purpose computing platforms. • Operating Systems • Autonomous Vehicles • Smartphones • Network Appliances PLANETARY SCALE Redundant, parallel compute systems ideally suited for parallel processing and distributed storage needs; 
 Big Data. • Hadoop • Data Centers • Virtualization 34
  42. 42. Source: The Opte Project SMALL PIECES, SOMETIMES SCALE-FREE “What the Web has done to documents it is doing to just about every institution it touches. The Web isn't primarily about replacing atoms with bits so that we can, for example, shop online or make our supply chains more efficient…Rather, the Web is changing our understanding of what puts things together in the first place. We live in a world that works well if the pieces are stable and have predictable effects on one another. We think of complex institutions and organizations as being like well-oiled machines that work reliably and almost serenely so long as their subordinate pieces perform their designated tasks. Then we go on the Web, and the pieces are so loosely joined that frequently the links don't work; all too often we get the message “404!” But, that's ok because the Web gets its value not from the smoothness of its overall operation but from its abundance of small nuggets that point to more small nuggets.” 35 “The Internet consists of Small Pieces, Loosely Joined.” — DAVID WEINBERGER 35
  43. 43. SMALL PIECES, JOINED LIKE THE INTERNET 36Source: frog
  44. 44. eg: Fitbit Nike + Smartthings Twine eg: Smartphones iPads Nest Device Complexity and Cost RelativeNumberofUnits(Log) COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE 37Source: frog Dead Zone
  45. 45. eg: Fitbit Nike + Smartthings Twine eg: Smartphones iPads Nest Device Complexity and Cost RelativeNumberofUnits(Log) COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE 37Source: frog Device Profitability Dead Zone
  46. 46. — RICHARD TYSON “Big Design 
 is about a shift of value to the system, from the device.” 38 ($5)
  47. 47. 39 COMPLEXITY & COST WELL CURVE Source: DLB Associates ($7B)
  48. 48. INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE DESIGN 
 FOR CHEAP MODULARITY HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES
  49. 49. INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE DESIGN 
 FOR CHEAP MODULARITY HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES THERE ARE 
 THREE SCALES 
 OF BIG DESIGN DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
  50. 50. DESIGN PRINCIPLES ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY EXPERIENCE STRATEGY 41
  51. 51. 42 SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY 1. DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN 2. DESIGN FOR FAILURE 3. DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS
  52. 52. OUR SELF-DRIVING FUTURE http://www.bsfilms.com.ar/ 43
  53. 53. OUR SELF-DRIVING FUTURE http://www.bsfilms.com.ar/ 43
  54. 54. YOU’RE ONLY AS GOOD AS YOUR WORST DESIGN DECISION www.arstechnica.com 44 REMOTELINK DATA
 An example of decrypted RemoteLink data captured 
 by OwnStar, from Kamkar's DefCon presentation.
  55. 55. NO MATTER WHAT, IT WILL BE HACKED 45 There have been an increasing number of safety critical hacks of production vehicles. This one resulted in more than 1 Million Jeeps being recalled. “Hackers remotely kill a Jeep on the highway.” — ANDY GREENBERG Source: Wired
  56. 56. INDUSTRY STANDARD ATTACK SURFACES 46Source: Sean Gallagher / www.arstechnica.com
  57. 57. 47 47 “An escalator can never break: it can only become stairs.” — MITCH HEDBERG
  58. 58. BEWARE FAT TAILS 1. Disproportionate Role 2. Non-Computability 3. Psychological Biases 4. Things keep getting weirder 48Source: Wikipedia / Cauchy Distribution
  59. 59. FAT TAILS HAPPEN EVERY DAY 49Source: Internet
  60. 60. FAT TAILS HAPPEN EVERY DAY 49Source: Internet
  61. 61. THE WORLD IS GETTING WEIRDER 50 DESPITE BILLIONS SPENT ON SAFETY AND SECURITY, THERE REALLY IS NO WAY TO STOP A PILOT FROM INTENTIONALLY CRASHING A PLANE. 50Source: stevecoast.com
  62. 62. THERE ARE 
 THREE SCALES 
 OF BIG DESIGN INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE DESIGN 
 FOR CHEAP MODULARITY DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
  63. 63. THERE ARE 
 THREE SCALES 
 OF BIG DESIGN INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE DESIGN 
 FOR CHEAP MODULARITY DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN DESIGN 
 FOR FAILURE DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
  64. 64. DESIGN PRINCIPLES ARCHITECTURE SECURITY & ANTI-FRAGILITY EXPERIENCE STRATEGY 52
  65. 65. 53 EXPERIENCE STRATEGY 1. DON’T JUST MAKE THINGS 2. CREATE ANCHOR POINTS 3. ORGANIZE FOR EXPERIENCE
  66. 66. DON’T JUST MAKE THINGS 54 Previous Products Market/Customer says... SortingWe think... SortingNo Existing Market SortingCan we? Should we? SortingWe should make a thing SortingThe Market Indicates
  67. 67. CREATE EXPERIENCES 55 People have been doing... Experiments to understand behavior... These things exist Learning Adapting Networks feel... SortingWe could be...
  68. 68. CREATE EXPERIENCES 56 BUILDING 
 NEW PRODUCTS 
 & SERVICES What needs and desires 
 are we trying to address? UNDERSTANDING 
 THE IMPACT OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES
 What do we need to understand and when? How do we react? New products 
 and services create 
 new behaviors A better understanding 
 of needs and desires 
 can validate decisions
  69. 69. ANCHOR POINTS: THINGS YOU CAN RELY ON 57Source: GE
  70. 70. 58 — OPERATIONS MANAGER, 
 MAJOR CITY TRANSIT “Before CNG in a Box, it took all night to fuel my busses. And sometimes it didn’t work.”
  71. 71. CNG in a Box 59 ANCHOR POINTS: 
 THINGS YOU CAN 
 RELY ON
  72. 72. CNG in a Box Schedules 59 ANCHOR POINTS: 
 THINGS YOU CAN 
 RELY ON
  73. 73. CNG in a BoxInterfaces Schedules 59 ANCHOR POINTS: 
 THINGS YOU CAN 
 RELY ON
  74. 74. CNG in a BoxInterfaces Services Schedules 59 ANCHOR POINTS: 
 THINGS YOU CAN 
 RELY ON
  75. 75. CNG in a BoxInterfaces Distribution Services Schedules 59 ANCHOR POINTS: 
 THINGS YOU CAN 
 RELY ON
  76. 76. HEADLINE LOREM IPSUM DOLOR SIT AMET, CONSECTETUR ADIPISICING ELIT, SED DO EIUSMOD TEMPOR 60 ANCHOR POINTS FOR CONNECTED EXPERIENCES 60
  77. 77. HEADLINE LOREM IPSUM DOLOR SIT AMET, CONSECTETUR ADIPISICING ELIT, SED DO EIUSMOD TEMPOR 60 ANCHOR POINTS FOR CONNECTED EXPERIENCES 60
  78. 78. IOT ExperienceInterfaces Distribution Services Schedules 61 ANCHOR POINTS: 
 THINGS YOU CAN 
 RELY ON
  79. 79. ORGANIZED FOR EXPERIENCE? Which company is better organized 
 to create the best experiences? 
 Who can introduce new services 
 and products, or pivot quickly 
 to change existing ones? 62Source: Internet Meme
  80. 80. ORGANIZED FOR EXPERIENCE? “Schiller’s Marketing function includes product marketing by product line, but these are not business ownership roles…there is 
 no “head of devices” or “head of iPhone”… Product is a “horizontal” responsibility 
 for which every function is partially responsible.” “When seen in 
 this light, the first observation is that there is no ‘product business’ ownership.” —HORACE DEDIU, ASYMCO CEO
 HR
 Marketing - Schiller
 Design - Ive
 Technologies - Mansfield
 Internet SW
 -Cue Operations HW Engineering -Riccio Legal NA Sales Int. Sales Communications Retail Finance -Oppenheimer SW Engineering -Federighi SUSTAIN DISRUPT 63Source: asymco.com
  81. 81. DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN THERE ARE 
 THREE SCALES 
 OF BIG DESIGN INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE DESIGN 
 FOR FAILURE DESIGN 
 FOR CHEAP MODULARITY DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE
  82. 82. DESIGN FOR BAD DESIGN THERE ARE 
 THREE SCALES 
 OF BIG DESIGN INVENT AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE DESIGN 
 FOR FAILURE DESIGN 
 FOR CHEAP MODULARITY DESIGN SMALL PIECES, LOOSELY JOINED DESIGN FOR FAT TAILS & WEIRDNESS HUMANS + MACHINES > HUMANS OR MACHINES RESPECT THE IOT WELL CURVE DON’T JUST 
 MAKE THINGS CREATE ANCHOR POINTS ORGANIZE FOR EXPERIENCE
  83. 83. frog is a company of Aricent © 2015 frog design inc. Design Big

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