A revised view on the future of Mobility – rowing back from the heady daze of 2017. Using the CASE (Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric) framework, we contrast the optimism of a view years ago, with the more grounded view of today.

1. Trends day
Mobility futures
31 July 2019

2. Our office

3. Perspective

4. CASE
Vision of the future of mobility (2017)
C A S EConnected Autonomous Shared Electric

5. CASE
Vision of the future of mobility (2017)
C A S EConnected Autonomous Shared Electric
SERIOUS DELAYS AHEAD

6. AVs have been massively over hyped
Gartner hype cycle
Valley of oblivionRavine of
demise
Time
Visibility
Peak of inflated Expectations
Trough of disillusionment
Slope of enlightenment
Plateau of productivity
Technology trigger

7. Mobility infrastructure roll out
slower than Silicon Valley speeds
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
90%
100%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
Householdsowningcars
US Buerau Census data
30%
20%
10%
1908Model T enters production
1926Route 66
established
1975First McDonalds drive thru
1937Golden gate bridge opens
1952First walk/don’t walk signal in NY

8. C A S E
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Connecting to everything Augmented driving Shared kerbspace Electric everything
A more nuanced view of CASE

9. Connected
to everything
C

10. Headline 30ptConnectivity is the new priority
Autonomous vehicle
– Operates in isolation
– Uses sensors to see where other vehicles are
– Limited low-range and low speed
Cooperative vehicle
– Operates based on nearby vehicles behaviours
– Uses connectivity to expand individual perception capability
(i.e. seeing behind corners)
– Communicates with infrastructures and other road-users
Cooperative-automated vehicle
– Uses both autonomous and cooperative capabilities
– Vehicle senses/receives message i.e. safety hazard
– Automatically performs corrective task

11. Headline 30ptV2X
V2G
V2V
V2N
V2P
V2I
V2G Vehicle to Grid (power)
V2V Vehicle to Vehicle
V2N Vehicle to Network (internet)
V2P Vehicle to Pedestrians
V2I Vehicle to Infrastructure

12. Headline 30ptSearch for new revenue streams
Content platforms Service platforms Data platforms
Big Tech and car brands looking
to offer in-car media services:
– Gaming
– Video
– Audio/music
There is a hive of activity exploring wide
spectrum of non-media based digital services:
– Real time traffic and location updates
– In car bookings and payments
– Location based advertising
Others are exploring ways to monetize the data
stream generated by connected vehicles:
– Traffic monitorimg
– Vehicle performance
– Driving style and safety

13. Headline 30ptHoloride x Audi
In-car VR experience platform
Content platform

14. Headline 30ptHonda Dream Drive
In car service integration for drivers
and passengers
Service platform

15. Headline 30ptDovu
Rewards drivers with crypto-tokens
for sharing their mobility data
Data platform

16. A
Augmented
driving
x

17. [I aim to make] ‘machines
slightly more intelligent
— or slightly less dumb.’
John Giannandrea, Head of AI, Apple
Machines have been overestimated,
and humans underestimated

18. The tech isn’t ready
Scenarios that GM’s self-driving cars have trouble handling
or aren’t being tested broadly in San Francisco
Changing lands
Tunnels
U-turns
Construction zones
Orange cones on road
Pull-over at curb
Narrow two-way street
Distinguishing between
motocycles and bikes
Going around cars trying
to parallel park
Unprotected left turns
Crossing solid white lines
Go through steam
emanating from manholes
‘Zipper merge’ (when two
lanes merge into one)
Intersections with faint
traffic lights
‘Soft’ poles that
separate lanes
Passing a cyclist
Bushes that protrude
into lanes
Heavy rain
Low sun
Going around cross-traffic
that’s stuck in intersection
Source: The Information

19. Overtrust
noun
The growing tendency
of humans to place
unwarranted trust in,
and defer to, automated
technology

20. Most tasks
are best
completed
with a
mix of...
Machine
strengths
Following rules
Analysis
Speed
Accuracy
Repetition
Always on
Human
strengths
Judgement
Empathy
Creativity
Improvisation
Leadership
Mode shifting

21. Human
Machine
Interlace
Machine
strengths
Following rules
Analysis
Speed
Accuracy
Repetition
Always on
Human
strengths
Judgement
Empathy
Creativity
Improvisation
Leadership
Mode shifting

22. AV technologies will first help
make human drivers safer

23. Volvo driver monitoring
1/3 of road
accidentsin
the US are
caused by
intoxicationNHTSA

24. Volvo driver monitoring
?

25. Safer interventions
Interventions
Driver prompts
Limiting speed
Stop and park
Call assistance
Detection
Eyes closed
Swerving
Lack of steering
Slow reactions
Eyes looking down
?

26. S
Slide 27Trends day
Shared
kerbspace

27. Reducing air quality
and congestion have
become top priorities
... balanced with meeting
economic goals
Cities are becoming more
interventionist

28. Dynamic
kerbspace
Zonification
Urban zoning

29. Fixed
zones

30. Dynamic zones
Crit’Air scheme
– When entering Paris or
Lyon, vehicles must display
an emissions sticker
– Authorities can restrict
which vehicles can enter
when air quality drops

31. Digital kerb management
Dynamically manage where and when vehicles
park, pick-up/set-down and unload
City benefits
– Raise road and kerb
productivity
– Generate new revenue
streams to replace falling
parking income
– Reduce backoffice costs
– Gain insights into road
and kerb usage patterns
Coord.co
Kerbside management

32. Booking ‘virtual’ loading bays
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Kerb by Grid Smarter Cities is a Kerbside
management platform for smart cities

33. E
Slide 34Trends day
Electric
everything

34. Slow car adoption

35. Cities investing in electrifying
public transport

36. An explosion of start-up driven
micromobility options

37. Electric cars are coming
... but slowly
Brakes on adoption
– Unlikely to reach price
parity with petrol cars
for another decade
– Lack of charging
infrastructure
Toyota’s planned range of electric and
hybrid cars, annouced June 2019
Tesla’s global
sales fell by
30 percent
in Q1 2019

38. ... Chinese brands will
probably dominate
Chinese EV advantages
– A state investment priority
for over a decade
– 61EV brands and counting
– Half the worlds EV
charging stations are in
China
C-More concept, LeapMotor

39. Chinese infrastructure
is already ahead
Chinese EV advantages
– A state investment priority
for over a decade
– 61EV brands and counting
– Half the worlds EV
charging stations are in
China
Shenzen’s Minle EV charging station

40. Electric buses
are leading the way

41. China is way out ahead

42. Explosion
in new
formats
Lightweight (sub-500kg)
Sub 3 mile journeys
Shared and electric

43. Many love e-scooters

44. but not everyone

45. Especially cities
City backlash
– Munich cracks down
on growing trend of
‘drink-riding’
– London bans them
outright
Munich police stopping rider to
breathalyse him

46. Race to breakeven

47. Innovation is still needed
Increased battery life
Interchangeable, rechargeable
batteries will reduce cost of ‘juicers’
Sturdier scooters
Better materials, efficient
construction and larger wheels

48. C A S E
14:00
RESERVED
26.05.18
BOOKED
26.05.18
14:00
BOOKED
26.05.18
14:00
Connecting to everything Augmented driving Shared kerbspace Electric everything
Thank you

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