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Averting a Fiscal Crisis The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
Deficit Projections Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. 1991-2011 Average Deficit:   2.8% 2012-2021 Average Current Policy Deficit: 5.3% (Percent of GDP)
Gap Between Revenue and Spending Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. Avg. Historical Spending (1970-2010): 20.8% Avg. Historical Revenues (1970-2010): 18.0% (Percent of GDP)
Components of Revenue and Spending Total Outlays = $3.629 Trillion 2011 Total Revenues = $2.230 Trillion Total Financing = $3.629 Trillion Revenues and Financing Outlays
Debt Projections Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. Realistic Projections 2010: 62% 2024: 100%  2040: 180% 2080: 500% CRFB Realistic Debt (Percent of GDP)
Consequences of Debt ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Risk of Fiscal Crisis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Debt Drivers Short-Term Long-Term ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Growing Entitlement Spending Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. Federal Spending and Revenues (Percent of GDP)
Why Is Entitlement Spending Growing? 36% 64% 56% 44% Source: CBO Long-term Budget Outlook, 2010. Drivers of Entitlement Spending Growth (Percent of GDP)
Why Is Federal Health Spending Increasing? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Health Care Spending by Country Source: 2008 Data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Percent of GDP (2008)
Number of Workers for Every Social Security Retiree Is Falling Source: 2011 Social Security Trustees Report. 16:1 5:1 3:1 2:1 1950 1960 2011 2035
Living Longer, Retiring Earlier Source: Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau.
Looming Social Security Insolvency Source: 2011 Social Security Trustees Report. Payable Benefits Revenues Scheduled Benefits Social Security Costs and Revenues (Percent of Taxable Payroll)
Interest as a Share of the Budget Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Projections. Total Spending = 24% of GDP Total Spending = 29% of GDP Total Spending = 39% of GDP 2010 2030 2050 (Percent of GDP)
Insufficient Revenue ,[object Object],[object Object]
Excessive Spending Through the Tax Code  (Tax Expenditures) Source: Joint Committee on Taxation. Source: Office of Management and Budget. Tax Expenditures as a Percent of Primary  Spending if Included in the Budget Large Tax Expenditures  and Their 2011 Costs (billions) Employer Health Insurance Exclusion $174 Mortgage Interest Deduction $89 401(k)s and IRAs $77 Earned Income Tax Credit $62 Special Rates for Capital Gains and Dividends $61 State & Local Tax Deduction $57 Charitable Deduction $49 Child Tax Credit $45
How to Reduce the Deficit ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission Plan (Debt as Percent of GDP)
It’s Time for a Fiscal Reform Plan ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Reasons to Enact a Plan Sooner Rather than Later Size of Adjustment to Close 25-year Fiscal Gap,  Depending on Start Year (Percent of GDP)
The Time For Action Is Now ,[object Object],[object Object]

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Averting a Fiscal Crisis

  • 1. Averting a Fiscal Crisis The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget
  • 2. Deficit Projections Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. 1991-2011 Average Deficit: 2.8% 2012-2021 Average Current Policy Deficit: 5.3% (Percent of GDP)
  • 3. Gap Between Revenue and Spending Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. Avg. Historical Spending (1970-2010): 20.8% Avg. Historical Revenues (1970-2010): 18.0% (Percent of GDP)
  • 4. Components of Revenue and Spending Total Outlays = $3.629 Trillion 2011 Total Revenues = $2.230 Trillion Total Financing = $3.629 Trillion Revenues and Financing Outlays
  • 5. Debt Projections Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. Realistic Projections 2010: 62% 2024: 100% 2040: 180% 2080: 500% CRFB Realistic Debt (Percent of GDP)
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. Growing Entitlement Spending Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Baseline. Federal Spending and Revenues (Percent of GDP)
  • 10. Why Is Entitlement Spending Growing? 36% 64% 56% 44% Source: CBO Long-term Budget Outlook, 2010. Drivers of Entitlement Spending Growth (Percent of GDP)
  • 11.
  • 12. Health Care Spending by Country Source: 2008 Data from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Percent of GDP (2008)
  • 13. Number of Workers for Every Social Security Retiree Is Falling Source: 2011 Social Security Trustees Report. 16:1 5:1 3:1 2:1 1950 1960 2011 2035
  • 14. Living Longer, Retiring Earlier Source: Social Security Administration and U.S. Census Bureau.
  • 15. Looming Social Security Insolvency Source: 2011 Social Security Trustees Report. Payable Benefits Revenues Scheduled Benefits Social Security Costs and Revenues (Percent of Taxable Payroll)
  • 16. Interest as a Share of the Budget Note: Estimates based on CRFB Realistic Projections. Total Spending = 24% of GDP Total Spending = 29% of GDP Total Spending = 39% of GDP 2010 2030 2050 (Percent of GDP)
  • 17.
  • 18. Excessive Spending Through the Tax Code (Tax Expenditures) Source: Joint Committee on Taxation. Source: Office of Management and Budget. Tax Expenditures as a Percent of Primary Spending if Included in the Budget Large Tax Expenditures and Their 2011 Costs (billions) Employer Health Insurance Exclusion $174 Mortgage Interest Deduction $89 401(k)s and IRAs $77 Earned Income Tax Credit $62 Special Rates for Capital Gains and Dividends $61 State & Local Tax Deduction $57 Charitable Deduction $49 Child Tax Credit $45
  • 19.
  • 20.
  • 21. The Bowles-Simpson Fiscal Commission Plan (Debt as Percent of GDP)
  • 22.
  • 23.