Presentation at Unisa, 16 August 2019

1. Open distance learning in South Africa in
2030: A personal reflection Paul Prinsloo
Department of Business Management, University of South Africa (Unisa)
14prinspImage by photosforyou from Pixabay

2. Acknowledgement
I do not own the copyright of any of the images in this
presentation. I therefore acknowledge the original copyright
and licensing regime of every image used.
This presentation (excluding the images) is licensed
under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
License.

3. Background to the presentation
• Unisa was founded in 1873
• Over the years evolved from an examination centre, to
correspondence education, to fully fledged distance
education to, increasingly internet-supported and internet-
dependent teaching and learning
• Central to its administrative, academic and support function
were a number of regional centres to serve ± 350,000
students
• In the legislative, regulatory and funding regimes Unisa is
funded as a distance education provider
• What does the future hold in the specific context of South
Africa, Africa and the broader landscape of open, distance
and distributed learning provision?

4. How do we talk about
change?
Image by Three-shots from Pixabay

5. Image by Pavlofox from Pixabay
Changing gears, changing parts

6. Image by Serhii Kuch from Pixabay
Part of a broader ecology of
intersection and mutually constitutive
elements

7. Image by Martin Winkler from Pixabay
Engaging the known and unknown…

8. Logan, D. C. (2009). Known knowns, known unknowns, unknown unknowns and the propagation of scientific enquiry. Journal of
Experimental Botany, 60(3), 712-714.

9. Snowden, D. J., & Boone, M. E. (2007). A leader's framework for decision making. Harvard Business
Review, 85(11), 68.

10. Cynefin framework image: http://www.hlswatch.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/Cynefin-Adapted.jpg

11. Source credit: https://www.thedailystar.net/shout/health/news/judging-yourself-the-dunning-kruger-effect-
1730974

12. Image by Luns-Brunet BOUDENGUE-WAMBA from Pixabay
Eleven years from today, he
may be considering
studying through
open, distance
learning…
… what will he find/need?

13. Image by kone kassoum from Pixabay
What knowledge*,
competencies
and capabilities
will she need
to flourish
as human in 2030
and beyond?
*This presentation will not go into issues pertaining to the need to
decolonise our curriculum - that is a topic for another conversation…

14. Image by Cindy Parks from Pixabay
What difference will/can (what
type*) of open, distance learning
make in the lives of our students whether
they graduate or not? (*quality of service & responsiveness, menu
of services, use of technologies, etc.)

15. Image by Free-Photos from Pixabay
What is your picture of the world, South Africa,
higher education, and of open distance learning in
2030?

16. Image credit: https://pixabay.com/photos/apocalypse-setting-silence-taboo-3600552/
Narratives of the future…
Environmental collapse, increased (climate) immigration, rampant
poverty, terrorism redefined as individuals and smaller groups,
water shortages…

17. Image by Mystic Art Design from Pixabay
Environmental
collapse with
high tech

18. Image by Tumisu from Pixabay

19. Image by kalhh from Pixabay
A post-human world…

21. Choosing a lens to look at 2030…

22. Source credit: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/01/the-fourth-industrial-revolution-what-it-means-and-how-to-respond/
2016
There has never been a time of greater promise, or
one of greater potential peril
First imaginary…

23. Image credit: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c8/Industry_4.0.png
± 1760 – 1820/40 ± 1870 – 1940 1960 - PLATO
1982 - WWW
1998 – Google
2004 – Facebook
2005- YouTube
… ->
Slavery – slavery abolished
in the UK 1807
Colonisation
Berlin Conference 1884-1885

24. ± 1760 – 1820/40 ± 1870 – 1940 1960 - PLATO
1982 - WWW
1998 – Google
2004 – Facebook
2005- YouTube
Colonisation
Berlin Conference 1884-1885
Slavery – slavery abolished
in the UK 1807
Image credit: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c8/Industry_4.0.png
… ->

25. Imagecredit:https://www.flickr.com/photos/haydnseek/2534088367
Site credit: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941

26. Imagecredit:https://www.flickr.com/photos/haydnseek/2534088367
Site credit: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941

27. Site credit: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941

28. Imagecredit:https://www.flickr.com/photos/haydnseek/2534088367
Site credit: http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-34066941

29. Source credit: https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2019-07-25-what-can-the-fourth-industrial-revolution-
learn-from-the-third-industrial-revolution/
Unless we can learn the lessons from previous revolutions, we risk
adopting an ‘add AI and stir’ approach towards our current problems.

30. Source credit: https://unwin.wordpress.com/2019/03/09/why-the-notion-of-a-fourth-industrial-revolution-
is-so-problematic/

31. Source credit: https://unwin.wordpress.com/2019/03/09/why-the-notion-of-a-fourth-industrial-revolution-
is-so-problematic/
Technology is designed by people for particular purposes
that serve very specific interests. It is these that change
the world, and not the technology.
The interests underlying the so called Fourth Industrial Revolution are largely
the same as those driving the economic, social and political systems of the
previous 400 years: market expansion and a reduction of labour costs through
the use of technology. It is these interests, rather than the technologies
themselves that are of most importance.

32. Source credit: https://unwin.wordpress.com/2019/03/09/why-the-notion-of-a-fourth-industrial-revolution-
is-so-problematic/
In an increasingly unequal world, the way to create greater equality cannot be
through the use of the technologies that have created those inequalities in the
first place. Rather, to change the global balance of power, there needs to be a
history that focuses on the lives of the poorest and most marginalised, rather
than one that glorifies élites in the interests of maintaining their hold over
power.
Most historical accounts of industrial revolutions likewise focus on male innovators and
industrialists, and yet women played a very significant part in shaping the outcomes of
these tecchnological changes, not least in their roles as workers and as mothers. Not
only are accounts of industrial revolutions élite histories, they are mainly also male
histories.

33. Source credit: https://unwin.wordpress.com/2019/03/09/why-the-notion-of-a-fourth-industrial-revolution-
is-so-problematic/
The interests of those shaping these technologies are not primarily in changing the
basis of our society into a fairer and more equal way of living together, but rather
they are in competing to ensure their dominance and wealth as far as possible into
the future. […]
The Fourth Industrial Revolution is in large part a conspiracy to shape the world ever
more closely in the imagination of a small, rich, male and powerful élite.

34. Source credit: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/how-will-africa-change-by-2030/

35. Source credit: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/how-will-africa-change-by-2030/

36. Source credit: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2015/06/how-will-africa-change-by-2030/

37. The region has about 90m
people aged 20-24, a figure
projected to double over the
next 30 years. Whereas 42%
of that age group had
completed secondary school
in 2012, 59% are forecast to
do so by 2030. If African
countries are to meet the
aspirations of educated
young people, they must
ensure there are
opportunities for further
study

38. Source credit: http://ww2.oldmutual.co.za/old-mutual-investment-group/insights/magazines/tomorrow-
2017/what-will-south-africa-look-like-in-2030
Reducing poverty by tackling unemployment and dealing with poor
education are the most critical areas of focus. It is a fact that 80% of
South Africa’s schools are dysfunctional. The latest Trends in
International Mathematics and Science Study (TIMSS), highlighted
how a shocking 27% of pupils who have attended South African
schools for six years cannot read, compared with 4% in Tanzania
and 19% in Zimbabwe. We are bottom of the class and we clearly
need a new approach as quality education leads to gainful
employment. The number of unemployed youth in South Africa is a
travesty.

39. Source credit: https://www.populationpyramid.net/south-
africa/2030/
51.3% of the
population will be
under the age of
30

40. Source credit: http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/south-africa-in-2030-three-scenarios/
• Rapid escalation of social protests
• Market-led interventions in education, health and services
• Further erosion of trust in key societal institutions
• Unemployment reduced to around 22%
Professor
Somadoda Fikeni
(20 June 2018)
1

41. Source credit: http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/south-africa-in-2030-three-scenarios/
• TVET Colleges are overhauled and produce many more artisans while
university education is made more affordable
• A more capable and productive public sector
• Faster urban and rural land redistribution, and better support for
emerging farmers, boosting agricultural production, food security and
urban integration
• Unemployment reduced to 16%
Professor
Somadoda Fikeni
(20 June 2018)
2

42. Source credit: http://www.sabcnews.com/sabcnews/south-africa-in-2030-three-scenarios/
• Many key institutions are only partially ‘liberated’ – and some
quickly get ‘recaptured’ by newly emerging elites
• Coalition government between 2024-2029
• Income inequality exceeds even the high levels of the 2010s
• The post-2024 coalition government is increasingly controlling and
individual freedoms are curtailed
• Unemployment never falls below 25% - and actually increases
towards the end of the 2020s
Professor
Somadoda Fikeni
(20 June 2018)
3

43. So, how are we doing in
2019 (eleven years before
2030?
Image credit: http://buzzsouthafrica.com/wp-content/uploads/proudly-southafrica.png
• Employment
• Poverty
• Inequality
• Digital
transformation

44. Source credit: https://www.fin24.com/Economy/just-in-unemployment-rate-rises-to-276-in-first-quarter-of-
2019-20190514
…there are 16.3 million employed people and 6.2
million unemployed people between the ages of 15
and 64 years in South Africa.

45. Source credit: https://mg.co.za/article/2019-07-30-unemployment-rate-at-29-statssa
The survey shows that 57% of
unemployed South Africans had an
education level below matric, followed
by those with matric at 33.4% in the
second quarter of 2019. According to
StatsSA only 2.2% of the 6.7-million
unemployed South Africans were
graduates, while 6.9% had other
tertiary qualifications as their highest
level of education.

46. Source credit: https://mg.co.za/article/2019-07-30-unemployment-rate-at-29-statssa
The survey shows that 57% of
unemployed South Africans had an
education level below matric, followed
by those with matric at 33.4% in the
second quarter of 2019. According to
StatsSA only 2.2% of the 6.7-million
unemployed South Africans were
graduates, while 6.9% had other
tertiary qualifications as their highest
level of education.
147,400 graduates
are unemployed

47. Source credit https://africacheck.org/factsheets/frequently-asked-questions-about-poverty-in-south-africa/

48. Source credit: https://businesstech.co.za/news/finance/332553/this-is-how-much-money-the-poorest-are-living-
on-each-month-in-south-africa/
1 August 2019

49. Source credit: https://time.com/5581483/time-cover-south-africa/

50. Source credit: https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/07/africa/south-africa-elections-inequality-intl/index.html

51. Source credit: https://www.slideshare.net/DataReportal/digital-2019-south-africa-january-2019-v01?from_action=save

63. Image by photosforyou from Pixabay
Talk to me about what open distance
learning will look like in 2030…

64. Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

65. Image credit: http://www.goodreads.com/book/show/13587160-to-save-everything-click-here
Morozov, E. (2013). To save everything,
click here: The folly of technological
solutionism. Public Affairs
“We must not fixate on what this new
arsenal of digital technologies allows us to
do without first inquiring what is worth
doing.”
#technosolutionism

66. Source credit: https://time.com/5581483/time-cover-south-africa/

67. So what
happens
when you
add
technology
to…

68. Source credit: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/04/technology-doesnt-cause-inequality-enables-it-to-thrive
This entire new economy would
have been impossible without
ubiquitous internet connections,
smartphones, apps and GPS, in
other words, without digital
technology. And in the process, it
is transforming what Marx called
the proletariat into what we now
know as a “precariat”.

69. Source credit: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/aug/04/technology-doesnt-cause-inequality-enables-it-to-thrive
“The point of all this is not that digital technology has
created the unacceptable levels of inequality that disfigures
many liberal democracies, but that it plays a central role in
enabling the forces – globalisation, neoliberal economics,
sociopathic corporations, global tax-avoidance, automation,
political disruption, platform power – that have shaped the
world we now inhabit. It’s been an enabler, not a prime
mover. And, in the broad sweep of history, it’s only just
getting started.”

70. So, who/what drives technology adoption
and use in education? Who benefits? What
can we do (better and more ethically) with
technology that was not previously possible?
How does/will technology as enabler shape
open, distance and distributed learning?

71. Department of Higher Education and Training. (2014). Policy for the provision of distance education in South African universities in the context of
an integrated post-school system. Retrieved from https://www.gov.za/sites/default/files/37811_gon535.pdf
OfflineOnline Fully online
Fully offline
Digitally supported
Internet supported
Internet dependent
Campus-based Blended/hybrid Remote
A
BC
Distance, digitally supported
Distance, fully onlineCampus-based,
fully online

72. Source credit: https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.3200/CHNG.41.2.30-35
2009

73. “Of course, not all
distance education
systems are cheaper than
the alternative,
conventional means of
teaching and training”
(Rumble, 1997, p. 2)
The social advantage of
providing access, must
be considered in terms
of quality and cost

74. Quality
Access Cost
• The moment you increase access, what happens to quality
and cost?
• When you commit to quality learning experiences, what
happens to cost and access?
• Aiming to keep our costs as low as possible, how does this
impact on access and quality?

75. Source credit: http://www.irrodl.org/index.php/irrodl/article/view/916/1785
2011

76. Quality
Access Cost
“[D]istance education can achieve any two of the
following: flexible access, quality learning experience
and cost-effectiveness – but not all three at once”
(Kanuka & Brooks, 2010, in Power and Gould-Morven, 2011, p. 23)

77. Quality
Accessibility
Considering three stakeholder groups – students,
faculty and administrators – who values which
aspect the most and how does this impact on other
stakeholders?
Cost-
effectiveness

78. So what happens when ensuring quality costs more and
limits access? What happens when student numbers
increase to ensure economies of scale but maintain
quality? And what happens when students demand
maximum access to high quality at low/no cost?
Quality
Accessibility Cost-
effectiveness
Faculty
AdministrationStudents

79. Image credit: https://pixabay.com/en/eat-salad-cucumbers-food-tomatoes-2834549/
Does blended learning just adding
technology/ online teaching to the mix?

80. Image credit: https://pixabay.com/en/paint-blending-mixture-white-gold-1622310/
Or, does blended learning mean integrating various
elements into a holistic, and carefully designed
learning journey?

81. Source credit: https://www.slideshare.net/eLearnCenter/anderson-getting-the-mix-right

82. Student
TeacherContent
Student - Student
Teacher - TeacherContent - Content
Content - Teacher
Deep and
meaningful
learning
Anderson, T., & Garrison, D. R. (1998). Learning in a networked world: New roles and responsibilties.
In Distance Learners in Higher Education: Institutional responses for quality outcomes. Madison, Wi.:
Atwood.
1998

83. Social Presence:
Interaction with peers
Teaching Presence:
Interaction with
instructor/teacher
Cognitive Presence:
Interaction with
content
Learning Environment
EFFECTIVE
LEARNING
Setting Climate Selecting Content
Supporting Discourse
Adapted from Garrison, D. R., Anderson, T., & Archer, W. Critical inquiry in a text-based environment:
Computer conferencing in higher education. The Internet and Higher Education, 2(2-3), 1-19, 2000
2000

84. Source credit: http://www.irrodl.org/index.php/irrodl/article/view/149

85. Source credit: http://www.irrodl.org/index.php/irrodl/article/view/149
How much interaction is (really) needed for
effective (online*) learning? How does the
amount of interaction impact on the quality
and cost?
2003

86. Source credit: https://auspace.athabascau.ca/handle/2149/3185
2010

87. Image credit:
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Low.cost.carrier.easyjet.arp.jpg Image credit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emirates_(airline)
Flying low cost but getting to your
destination or flying first class with all the
bells and whistles?

88. How do we achieve a balance between
what are the essential elements in the
design and delivery of online/distributed
learning courses and those elements that
are extra/nice-to-have?
What will good practice in
online/distributed/distance education
provision look like in 2030?

89. Image location: https://scontent-jnb1-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-
9/18620492_1328081900605928_6200516404990980799_n.jpg?oh=ff7892acbecfcff7c1a00a72c1d3796f&oe=59A86652
Under what conditions will
online/distributed learning be truly
liberating?

90. Quality
Accessibility Cost-
effectiveness
Ethics
Social justice
4

91. (1)
Humans
perform the
task
(2)
Task is
shared with
algorithms
(3)
Algorithms
perform task:
human
supervision
(4)
Algorithms
perform task:
no human
input
Seeing Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No?
Processing Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No?
Acting Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No?
Learning Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No? Yes or No?
Danaher, J. (2015). How might algorithms rule our lives? Mapping the logical space of algocracy. [Web log post]. Retrieved from
http://philosophicaldisquisitions.blogspot.com/2015/06/how-might-algorithms-rule-our-lives.html
Can Artificial Intelligence (AI) and algorithmic decision-
making systems help?

92. Image credit: https://pixabay.com/en/man-eyes-portrait-face-male-358969/
EXCURSION:
A (short) case
study:
• When quality is not
enough
• How (not) to
innovate
• The cost of
transformation
• And… who/what
won?
Image credit: https://pixabay.com/en/train-wreck-steam-locomotive-67775/

93. Imagecredit:https://pixabay.com/en/binary-code-man-display-dummy-face-1327512/
The vice-chancellor's executive has decided to close the south-east
regional centre in East Grinstead, and plans to review the status of
the other English regional offices. Overall, some 700 jobs could be
at risk, almost a fifth of the OU's full-time workforce
2014

94. Imagecredit:https://pixabay.com/en/binary-code-man-display-dummy-face-1327512/
Source page: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2015/oct/20/open-university-strike-ou-regional-centres-moocs
2015

95. Imagecredit:https://pixabay.com/en/binary-code-man-display-dummy-face-1327512/
Source credit: http://www3.open.ac.uk/media/fullstory.aspx?id=31472
“The Open University, approaching its fiftieth year, is
launching a radical overhaul”
“Change on this scale will inevitably impact on staff
because staff make up two-thirds of the OU’s operating
costs. The proposed transformation in teaching, research,
IT systems and the running of the University will inevitably
mean that the number and types of roles will change. In
coming years, fewer people will be needed overall.”
2017

96. 2018
Source credit: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/mar/21/open-university-plans-major-cuts-to-
number-of-staff-and-courses
“It states that 41 undergraduate and postgraduate
degree courses will be axed, leaving 71 degrees
available. A range of courses including science,
business, music and classics are under threat.”

97. Source credit: https://www.theguardian.com/education/2018/apr/05/open-university-staff-pass-vote-of-no-
confidence-in-vice-chancellor
Lecturers say the proposals are so significant they will “destroy the
OU as we know it” and reduce it to “a digital content provider”.
Members of the institution’s branch of the University and College
Union (UCU) said Horrocks’s position was untenable after he
claimed the OU had allowed academics “to get away with not
teaching for decades”.
2018

98. How ‘open’ is Unisa?
1. Admission requirements
2. Epistemic access
3. Students living with disability
4. Incarcerated students
5. Language of tuition
6. Registration period
7. Tuition period
8. Curriculum development (who is included/excluded)
9. Prescribed course materials
10.Formative and summative assessments? (Opportunity to resubmit/rewrite)
11.Online/offline
12.Scholarship
According to…
• Management
• Faculty
• Students
Image credit: https://www.prohealth.com/library/what-the-pain-scale-really-means-34982

99. Imagecredit:https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tightrope_walking.jpg
‘Open’ in open, distance and distributed learning is always
a compromise between cost, quality and access

100. So, tell me about the role of open distance
learning in an increasingly unequal, resource-
constrained and hyper-connected world
where not everyone is connected, but
everyone is affected?

101. Unisa 2030 – we need to consider…
• Increased massification of higher education, the reality of
the outsourcing of human capacity, and the increased
impact of automation and algorithmic decision-making
systems
• Increased centralisation and digitalisation of processes,
teaching, administration and student support
• Except for the integrity and quality of our learning resources
and assessment practices, what will distinguish Unisa is
responsive, real-time, appropriate support (academic,
affective and administrative)
• Preparing our staff and students for a networked, unequal
and resource-constrained world

102. THANK YOU
Paul Prinsloo
Research Professor in Open Distance Learning (ODL)
Department of Business Management
Samuel Pauw Building, Office 5-21, P.O. Box 392
Unisa, 0003, Republic of South Africa
T: +27 (0) 12 433 4719 (office)
prinsp@unisa.ac.za
Skype: paul.prinsloo59
Personal blog:
http://opendistanceteachingandlearning.wordpress.com
Twitter profile: @14prinsp