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Economic Development Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit
Initial Findings – Rail~Volution 2015
Research Need
BRT to play growing role
Aim to increase job accessibility
Need station area job growth
LRT known in TC, BRT not
Research Question
What determines job growth prospects in
BRT station areas?
How and in what circumstances do those
prospects differ from LRT?
Study Regions & Modes
Data Sources
Data	
   Source	
  
GTFS (Stops, routes & modes)	
   Transit providers	
  
Built environment	
  
EPA Smart Location Database	
  
Transportation system	
  
Job growth/loss
LEHD Workplace Area
Characteristics
Socioeconomics	
   American Community Survey	
  
Approach
Before/after yearly job change
Sector and wage
By station areas
LRT reference
point
Poisson (count of jobs gained/lost)
“Collar Color” (status measure)
Model
Variables
Response variable:
"After" station area change in job category/year
Explanatory variables:
"Before" station area change in job category/year
"After" metro change in job category/year
Station area jobs in category at implementation
Station area population density
Station area job density
Metro population density
Metro job density
Arterial BRT station
Full-featured BRT station
Years since implementation
Total street mileage in station area
Distance from CBD
Distance from next station
Poverty rate
% minority residents
Jobs
Density
Transitway
Built
Environment
Social
Strength of Effects:
Blue collar jobs
Response variable:
"After" station area change in blue collar jobs/year
Explanatory variables:
Metro population density+ + +
"After" metro change in blue collar jobs/year+ +
Total street mileage in station area+
"Before" station area change in blue collar jobs/year-
Station area blue collar jobs at implementation- -
Metro job density- - -
Strength of Effects:
Pink collar jobs
Response variable:
"After" station area change in pink collar jobs/year
Explanatory variables:
Station area population density-
Distance from next station
Arterial BRT station
- -
Full-featured BRT station
"Before" station area change in pink collar jobs/year
Station area pink collar jobs at implementation- - -
Strength of Effects:
White collar jobs
Response variable:
"After" station area change in white collar jobs/year
Explanatory variables:
Total street mileage in station area + +
% minority residents +
Arterial BRT station -
Distance from CBD - -
Strength of Effects:
Low wage jobs
Response variable:
"After" station area change in low wage jobs/year
Explanatory variables:
Station area low wage jobs at implementation+ + +
Total street mileage in station area+ +
"After" metro change in low wage jobs/year+
Arterial BRT station-
Strength of Effects:
High wage jobs
Response variable:
"After" station area change in high wage jobs/year
Explanatory variables:
Total street mileage in station area+ + +
% minority residents+ +
"After" metro change in high wage jobs/year+
Distance from CBD-
Arterial BRT station
- -
Poverty rate
Metro job density- - -
Conclusions
Mix of regional & local determinants
Fixed infrastructure matters.
BRT needs pro-active job growth promotion efforts.
Recommendations
Stress corridor identity
for ABRT.
Focus on dense,
connected street
network.
Consider equity,
spatial mismatch.
Contacts:
Andrew Guthrie
(612) 625-4534
guth0064@umn.edu
Yingling Fan
(612) 626-2930
yingling@umn.edu
Thank you!

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BRT 101: Design, Operations and Economic Impact by Andrew Guthrie

  • 1. Economic Development Impacts of Bus Rapid Transit Initial Findings – Rail~Volution 2015
  • 2. Research Need BRT to play growing role Aim to increase job accessibility Need station area job growth LRT known in TC, BRT not
  • 3. Research Question What determines job growth prospects in BRT station areas? How and in what circumstances do those prospects differ from LRT?
  • 5. Data Sources Data   Source   GTFS (Stops, routes & modes)   Transit providers   Built environment   EPA Smart Location Database   Transportation system   Job growth/loss LEHD Workplace Area Characteristics Socioeconomics   American Community Survey  
  • 6. Approach Before/after yearly job change Sector and wage By station areas LRT reference point
  • 7. Poisson (count of jobs gained/lost) “Collar Color” (status measure) Model
  • 8. Variables Response variable: "After" station area change in job category/year Explanatory variables: "Before" station area change in job category/year "After" metro change in job category/year Station area jobs in category at implementation Station area population density Station area job density Metro population density Metro job density Arterial BRT station Full-featured BRT station Years since implementation Total street mileage in station area Distance from CBD Distance from next station Poverty rate % minority residents Jobs Density Transitway Built Environment Social
  • 9. Strength of Effects: Blue collar jobs Response variable: "After" station area change in blue collar jobs/year Explanatory variables: Metro population density+ + + "After" metro change in blue collar jobs/year+ + Total street mileage in station area+ "Before" station area change in blue collar jobs/year- Station area blue collar jobs at implementation- - Metro job density- - -
  • 10. Strength of Effects: Pink collar jobs Response variable: "After" station area change in pink collar jobs/year Explanatory variables: Station area population density- Distance from next station Arterial BRT station - - Full-featured BRT station "Before" station area change in pink collar jobs/year Station area pink collar jobs at implementation- - -
  • 11. Strength of Effects: White collar jobs Response variable: "After" station area change in white collar jobs/year Explanatory variables: Total street mileage in station area + + % minority residents + Arterial BRT station - Distance from CBD - -
  • 12. Strength of Effects: Low wage jobs Response variable: "After" station area change in low wage jobs/year Explanatory variables: Station area low wage jobs at implementation+ + + Total street mileage in station area+ + "After" metro change in low wage jobs/year+ Arterial BRT station-
  • 13. Strength of Effects: High wage jobs Response variable: "After" station area change in high wage jobs/year Explanatory variables: Total street mileage in station area+ + + % minority residents+ + "After" metro change in high wage jobs/year+ Distance from CBD- Arterial BRT station - - Poverty rate Metro job density- - -
  • 14. Conclusions Mix of regional & local determinants Fixed infrastructure matters. BRT needs pro-active job growth promotion efforts.
  • 15. Recommendations Stress corridor identity for ABRT. Focus on dense, connected street network. Consider equity, spatial mismatch.
  • 16. Contacts: Andrew Guthrie (612) 625-4534 guth0064@umn.edu Yingling Fan (612) 626-2930 yingling@umn.edu Thank you!