Rail~Volution 2017 John Martin | Headwinds or Tailwinds?

“Our world will change more in
the next 10 years than it has in
the past 50 years.”

“No matter where you fit in the
transit and urban planning
category, the key question you
have to ask yourself is how will
I be relevant tomorrow?”

Rail~Volution’s Vision
“America’s cities and regions will be
transformed into livable places —
healthy, economically vibrant, socially
equitable and environmentally
sustainable — where people have
transportation choices.”

5
Ridership Is Falling
Off In Many Cities

7
Conservative Anti-Transit
Trend Is Growing

8
Federal Policy Is Headed
In Wrong Direction

How pessimistic or optimistic
are you about our industry
realizing Rail~Volution’s grand vision?

The Game Changer Trend & Consequences For Cities
TODAY’S AGENDA
How Rail~Volution Can Help Every City Win
The Major Trends Affecting Our Vision
3
2
1
4
The Path Forward For Winning Cities of Tomorrow

11
THE
FUTURE
CULTURAL
TRENDS
CATEGORY
TRENDS
(HOUSING, ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT,
ENVIRONMENT, ETC.)
DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS
TODAY

Trend #1
Growing Anti-Transit
and Anti-Urban
Planning Voices

14
So, You Think It’s A Small
Local Group Fighting Your
Local Transit Initiatives?
THINK AGAIN!

15
Americans for Prosperity – Tim Phillips
Funders David and Charles Koch

16
Agenda 21
United Nations environmental manifesto, approved at a U.N. conference in
Brazil in 1992, is devoted almost entirely to global poverty, pollution and the
need to conserve natural resources.
One recommendation is that governments develop “efficient, cost-effective,
less polluting and safer rural and urban mass transit.” The other talks
about “reducing the need for motor vehicles by favoring high-occupancy
public transport.”
They Have Linked Smart
Growth with “Agenda 21.”

17
Their Position:
Transit and Smart Growth
=
Social
Re-Enginnering

More Organized
Opposition in
Referendums
Future Implication

20
Congressman Earl Blumenauer (OR-3)
“Federal transit funding is
going to be more
competitive and at risk”

More Pressure To Find
Innovative and Local
Funding Sources
Future Implication

Trend #3
Technology
Supported
Convenience

Reducing The Demand
For Travel. Every Place
Becomes More Livable
Without Planning & Services.
Future Implication

Trend #4
Rise Of A
Distributed
Workforce

Project Freelance Listing Boards

1/3
Today
Source: Forbes
U.S. Freelance Workforce
1/2
2020
53M
80M

1/4
Today
Source: SIR
Distributed Workforce
1/2
Future

Reducing Travel
Demand. Every Place
Becomes More Workable
Without Planning & Services.
Future Implication

Trend #5
The Promise of
Autonomous
Vehicles

Timing?
2020 for fully automated models
2030 for sufficient numbers
to make a difference (2B)
2040 to have a transformative societal impact

Supports Suburban
Sprawl. Ride Time
Is My Time.
Future Implication

Easier To Say
“Transit Is Yesterday’s
Technology.”
AV Future Implication #2

Tailwinds . . .
May Help Achieve Our Vision

Trend #6
Shift To The
Sharing Economy

Transportation Network
Companies (TNCs)

Shift To More
Mobility Options
With Sustainable Private
Sector Providers
Future Implication

Trend #7
Rising Cost of
Transportation

Potential Growth In Toll Road Mileage
Source: EMSmith
5,000
Miles
2015
25,000
Miles
2030

59% Of Moderate Income Household Income
Goes To Annual Housing & Transportation Cost
1/3 to
mobility

Rising Demand
For More Affordable
Mobility Options
Future Implication

U.S. Population
326
Million
Source: U. S. Census Reports
Today
358
Million
2030

Rate 12% to 15%
U.S. Poverty
Number of People: 46M
2020

“The Wealth Gap” Is Increasing
7.5X62+
Year
Olds
40 and
Under
Pre-recession
Source: Federal Reserve Bank

“The Wealth Gap” Is Increasing
7.5X
Pre-recession Today
14.8X
62+
Year
Olds
62+
Year
Olds
40 and
Under 40 and
Under
Source: Federal Reserve Bank

City of Richmond
1 in 4
live in poverty

Poverty Is Now A Top 3 Community
Concern Across Richmond
Total
City of
Richmond
Henrico Chesterfield
Enhanced economic development 89% 88% 90% 88%
Improved quality of K–12 education 89% 92% 88% 87%
Reduction in poverty 82% 84% 81% 80%
Expanded access to quality children’s
healthcare
81% 85% 80% 79%
More comprehensive pre-K education 79% 85% 78% 77%
Expanded access to quality adult
healthcare
77% 83% 77% 73%
More effective workforce training 75% 77% 77% 71%
More affordable housing options 73% 79% 72% 70%
Expanded transit service across the
region
73% 79% 73% 69%
Please note: Percentages represent top two box ratings of “4” and “5” from Q4.
Q4. How important are each of these community needs today?

Growing Appreciation
Of Less Fortunate People
Increases Support
(Including Support For Mobility Options
& Purpose-Built Communities).
Future Implication

Greater Density =
Greater Success For Multiple
Mobility Options And Sustainable
Urban Design Practices
Future Implication

Trend #10
Growing Preference
For A 15-Minute
Livable Community

Top desires for “ideal” neighborhood
I would love to live within 15
minutes commute of my work or
my school
Having access to stores,
restaurants, and services close to
my home (within about 15
minutes)
Q: How much do you agree with each of the following statements, when
thinking about your ideal neighborhood? Please use a scale of 1 to 5,
where “1” means “completely disagree” and “5” means “completely agree.”
Recent Movers
n = 300
Future Movers
n = 300
81%
64%
Percent saying “4” or “5”
79%
73%
RECENT MOVERS
FUTURE MOVERS
RECENT MOVERS
FUTURE MOVERS

70%
30%
61%
37%
45%
48%
Community A Community B
2004 2011 2015
Community A:
Houses with
large yards, and
you have to drive
to the places you
need to go
Walkable Community Trends
Source: National Association of Realtors National Community and Transportation Preference Survey (2004, 2011, 2015)
Such a big shift in about 10 years is remarkable.
Community B:
Houses with
small yards,
and it is easy
to walk to the
places you
need to go

Positive Momentum
Towards Livable
Places. “A Trend
Is Your Friend.”
Future Implication

Game Changer Trend
The Age Shift

Traits of Winning Cities of Tomorrow
1. Positive Attitude
2. Shared Story
3. Livable Places
4. Affordable Spaces
5. Work Force Flexibility
6. Magnet for Young People
7. Beyond Borders
8. Open Mind
9. Open Book
10. Big Tent

The winning cities of
tomorrow will be known
as HOT SPOTS for
young people.
INSIGHT

68
THE
FUTURE
CULTURAL
TRENDS
CATEGORY
TRENDS
(HOUSING, ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT,
ENVIRONMENT, ETC.)
DEMOGRAPHIC
TRENDS
TODAY

70
Longevity Revolution
1900 2017
47
79

The Shifting Birthrate
2.1
3.7
2.2

1909-28 1929-45 1946-64 1965-82 1983-01
3,200,000
25,000,000
74,000,000 74,000,000
84,000,000
100 80 62 44 25
Birth Years:
Median Age:
Source: US Census
2002-20?
65,000,000
6 Generations
Alive At One
Time
GREATEST SILENT BOOMER GEN X MILLENNIAL GEN “Z”

In the U.S.
the population
over age 65 will
grow from
46 million
today to
74 million
by 2030

2000
U.S. Population 65+
Source: US Census
2030
19%
20202010 2040
20%
16%
13%11%

1960 vs. 2030
Source: U.S. Census Bureau

80
The battle
will be for
YOUNGER
WORKERS

21,295 18,498
100,767 104,697
33,860
40,575
2014 2024
VIVA THE OLDER WORKERS
155,922
163,770
Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Dec 2015 Labor Force Projections
%
Change:
+5.0%
+19.8%
+3.9%
-13.1%
55+
25-54
16-24

21,295 18,498
100,767 104,697
33,860
40,575
2014 2024
COMPETITION FOR YOUNGER WORKERS WILL INTENSIFY
Labor Participation Rates (in millions)
155,922
163,770
Source: SIR Analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics Dec 2015 Labor Force Projections
%
Change:
+5.0%
+19.8%
+3.9%
-13.1%
122,062 123,195
55+
25-54
16-24

“Companies expanding or relocating know
that 85 percent or more of their workers will
come from the population already in place.”
Site Selection Consultant
83

“The future pipeline of workers
will be the ultimate driving force of all
relocation decisions tomorrow.”
Site Selection Consultant

The most important issues for respondents in site selection
today are location and workforce
Q4. When selecting a new location or site for your company—such as a site for a new
facility, a new manufacturing center, a data center, an expansion, a new headquarters
location, and so forth—what one issue is of greatest concern to you?
This confirms what we learned
in the qualitative study among
site selection and economic
development professionals.
There were no mentions of
“placemaking,” and only a
handful mentioned quality of
life factors.
Please note:
Categories were
created based on
coded open-
ended responses.
n = 232
CorporateReal Estate Professionals
27%
26%
12%
11%
10%
10%
5%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Location
Workforce
Cost
Business climate
Transportation
Infrastructure
Other
85

86
Respondents project that workforce availability and connectivity will be
even more important site location attributes in 10–15 years
Q12. Now, what about 10–15 years in the future? Will each of these factors be more or less important 5–10 years from now?
29%
35%
31%
36%
37%
37%
25%
43%
33%
34%
28%
19%
19%
10%
72%
68%
65%
64%
56%
56%
35%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Availability of the region’s labor force to
meet our needs in the future
Presence of advanced
telecommunications system
Availability of the region’s labor force to
meet our needs today
The quality of the overall transportation
system
Quality of life factors, such as schools,
housing, and recreational opportunities
The overall attitude and partnership
between local government and…
Financial support and incentives
provided by community, region, or state
4 5 - Much more important 10–15 years…n = 185
Transportation
will be a top
priority
Corporate Real Estate Professionals

500 recent
corporate
moves:
“Talent
recruitment
and retention”
Source: Smart Growth America
87

90
50,000 Employees
$5B investment in Mini-village
100,000+ Avg. Incomes
Near International Airport
Served By Transit
HQ2

Winners — those that galvanize their
communities around these transcendent
demographic and cultural shifts, embracing
mobility and transit as an economic
development driver.
Losers — those that don’t see these shifts
and let anti-transit conversation pick up
and current land use policies remain in
place.

93
Recruit Big Companies
People Follow Companies
Community Grows
Old Model
The Old Economic Development Model

94
Recruit for
Targeted Industries
Build Sense of
Place and Community
People Will Flock to It
Businesses Will Grow
From Within and
Others Will Come
Recruit Big Companies
People Follow Companies
Community Grows
Old Model New Model
The New Economic Development Model

The Key Is To
Understand What
Younger People
Want Today

96
THREE INTER-
RELATED
FACTORS:
AGE: “With age comes wisdom”
PERIOD: “It’s different today”
COHORT: “The generation gap”
1
2
3

What Do Young People
Want In A Place?
1. Social Scene (entertainment, food, outdoor).

Want In A Place?
2. Hyper-connected, Hyper-Convenient.

3. GENERATIONAL COHORT AFFECTS VIEWS
101
NOT “WHO YOU ARE,” BUT…
WHAT “IMPRINTED” YOU
WHEN YOU CAME OF AGE

Generational
Values
Defining
Events
Who We Are
Culture’s impact

103
SILENT BOOMER GEN X MILLENNIAL GEN “Z”
Late 1920s to mid ‘40s Late ‘50s to mid ‘70s Late ‘70s to mid ‘90s Late ‘90s to mid 2010s Now to mid ‘30s
GENERATION and FORMATIVE “WONDER YEARS”:

GENERATIONAL VALUES:
ARCHTYPE:
MILLENNIALS:
Confidence plus
Civic duty
Achievement
Hyper connected
Multi-tasking
Fearless
Co-dependent
Purposeful
Ambitious

67% of Millennials
were born to Boomers
who are determined to
“do parenting right.”

WHO WAS YOUR NUMBER ONE INFLUENCE IN:
Choosing a college:
Choosing a major in
college:
Making a decision to
take current job:
Making decisions:
MOM & DAD
MOM & DAD
MOM & DAD
MOM & DAD
Source: SIR study among high school and college students in Florida, 2012
And a strong
bond with
MOM & DAD

They are DIGITAL NATIVES
and are “WIRED” together
HOW
THEY ARE
WIRED
2

VS.
the experiencethe experience

The
COLLECTIVE SELF
Dominates
The wisdom of
MANY
is better than the thoughts of
FEW
They trust anony-
mous posts,
reviews,
recommendations.
The crowd RULES.

The Collective Self
A MILLENNIAL PARADOX?
“Special”

EVERYONE IS SPECIAL, EVERYONE HAS VALUE
“I’M SPECIAL” is not comparative as in “I’M BETTER
THAN YOU.” It’s an absolute statement:
“Yes, I’m special, but so are you. And you. And you…”
That means EVERYONE HAS VALUE, and NO ONE IS
BEST.
Millennial Mindsets:
MILLENNIALS SENSE OF “SELF” IS THE
COLLECTIVE, IT’S “WE,” NOT “ME”

MILLENNIAL
“WE”
MENTALITY
BOOMER
“ME”
MENTALITY
Culture Shift

MILLENNIAL ORIENTATION:
COLLECTIVE SELF

Have we raised a
generation of
SOCIALISTS?
Actually, we’ve raised a
generation all about
COMMUNITY

HYPER Community
New Expression
of Community

“I would like to live in a place where I did not
need to use a car very often.”
Percent Agree/Agree Strongly
Source: America in 2015 A ULI Survey of Views on Housing, Transportation, and Community
Millennials are just not as car-centric

50%
1978
16
75%
1978
17
86%
1978
18
31%
49%
68%
Today Today Today
% of U.S Population with Driver’s License
Source: USDOT

“For me this choice has almost nothing
to do with being anti-car. Instead, it's
about all the other things a "non-car
life" represents - it helps me be more
environmentally conscious, socially
aware, and local.”
- Millennial

Source: Rockefeller Foundation
66%Place high-quality transportation
in their top three concerns when
evaluating a new place to live

Source: Rockefeller Foundation
75%
Believe they will live in
a place that does not
require a car

126
This Is What
We See In Our
Millennial City
Research

RALEIGH
NC
WASH.
DC
CHARLOTT
E
NC
AUSTIN
TX
ATLANTA
GA
Denver
CO
Is safe 89% 87% 86% 91% 81% 90%
Has a variety of employment
options
90% 82% 83% 85% 82% 87%
Quality and affordability of
housing options
92% 83% 87% 87% 83% 83%
Offers outdoor recreation options 71% 60% 71% 77% 71% 76%
Offers a great food scene 76% 75% 78% 85% 77% 75%
Embraces creativity 59% 55% 58% 69% 59% 64%
Embraces innovation 70% 58% 61% 69% 60% 64%
Is near the mountains 28% 24% 40% 17% 30% 64%
Has access to water 59% 54% 64% 65% 54% 63%
Is bike-able/walkable 46% 50% 41% 43% 44% 61%
Has easy public transportation 42% 66% 40% 47% 46% 60%
Embraces small business/start-
ups/entrepreneurship
54% 48% 60% 61% 54% 57%
Higher education options 76% 60% 60% 73% 62% 57%
Is diverse 60% 63% 55% 69% 55% 55%
Urban living environment 47% 59% 51% 60% 46% 53%
Offers an active music scene 51% 36% 46% 53% 49% 49%
Offers an active arts scene 42% 38% 44% 43% 42% 46%
Has rich history 42% 47% 39% 41% 42% 42%127
Safety, variety of employment,
quality and affordability of housing top the list
Q20. Wh
en you
think
about a
city as a
place
you’d
really
want to
live, how
importan
t are
each of
the
following
to you?
BASICS
Raleigh, NC
n = 198
Washington, DC
n = 199
Charlotte, NC
n = 200
Austin, TX
n = 194
Atlanta, GA
n = 204
Denver, CO
n = 195

RALEIGH
NC
WASH.
DC
CHARLOTT
E
NC
AUSTIN
TX
ATLANTA
GA
Denver
CO
Is safe 89% 87% 86% 91% 81% 90%
options
90% 82% 83% 85% 82% 87%
Quality and affordability of
housing options
92% 83% 87% 87% 83% 83%
Has easy public
transportation
42% 66% 40% 47% 46% 60%
54% 48% 60% 61% 54% 57%
Is diverse 60% 63% 55% 69% 55% 55%
Has rich history 42% 47% 39% 41% 42% 42%
128
Placemaking Attributes
Raleigh, NC
n = 198
Washington, DC
n = 199
Charlotte, NC
n = 200
Austin, TX
n = 194
Atlanta, GA
n = 204
Denver, CO
n = 195
Q20. When you think about a city as a place you’d really want to live, how important are each of the following to
you?
PLACEMAKING

MILLENNIALS:
Community focused
– we, us, together
. . .
15-Minute Livable
Communities

GENERATIONAL VALUES:
ARCHTYPE:
GEN Z (also known as “Kids”):
Safety and security
Frugal and savvy
Self-educate
Co-create
Inclusive
Pluralistic
Resourceful
Pragmatic

Has a new parenting
style arrived in the
past decade?

Source: Pew Research Center
Are you doing a very good job at raising your kids?
Boomer Dads 42%
Gen X Dads 37%
Millennial Dads 43%
Dads 18–30

Are you doing a very good job at raising your kids?
Boomer Moms 41%
Gen X Moms 48%
Millennial Moms 57%
Moms 18–30

Millennial Moms
“We’re stricter and more
loving than older parents.”
“We stick to our guns rather
than give in too quickly.”

Practical, Safe,
Pragmatic, Frugal
. . .
15-Minute Livable
Communities
GEN Z:

Want In A Place?
2. Hyper-connected. Hyper-convenient.
3. 15-minute Livable Community.
Millennials – Community
Gen Zs – Protect the homeland

People don’t follow what you do, but
rather whyyou do it.
People join (and do business with)
other people who share their
same beliefs, goals or dreams.
141

142
City Vision Statement
Community Values
Characteristics, aspirations, and moral attributes that
the community cherishes and desires.
Communit
y Value 3
Communit
y Value 2
Communit
y Value 1

143
Q10. Looking
forward, what
are the top
three desired
community
values
associated with
_____?
n = 549
31%
17%
17%
17%
12%
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
6%
5%
4%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
3%
2%
23%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Safe
Family-oriented
Diverse
Economic opportunities for everyone
Affordable
Clean
Welcoming/Friendly
Inclusive
Easy to get around
Growing
Education-focused
Environmentally-friendly
Community-oriented
Good police-community relations
Collaborative
Contemporary
Innovative
Multigenerational
Caring
United
Other

Transit Vision 2040
Our Multi-city Transportation System That Moves Our Economy Forward
High Speed Ferries
BRT
Circulator Bus
Light Rail “Spine”

Create A Sense
of Urgency &
Importance

7 Tenets of a Great Story
1. Three-Part Structure: A beginning, middle, and end.
2. A protagonist: There must be a hero! The hero of the story is the one who is
transformed as the story unfolds.
3. A goal: Where the hero is headed—what transformation they are seeking, or simply
what transformation happens to them.
4. The risk: Something should be at stake. Risk is what makes any story a story.
5. An Aha Moment: A moment in the story when the hero realizes or experiences
something that changes the course of the future.
6. Transformation: What changed as a result.
7. Enlightenment: Leave people understanding the moral of the story.

Sell What’s At Stake!
Are We Appealing To
Young People?
Are We Attracting And
Retaining Young
People?
Become A Futurist: Be The Voice of What’s Ahead

15 33
MILLENNIALS
Median age:
24
20 30 50 70
It’s their world now…
10 40 60 80
34 51
GEN X
Median age:
43
52 70
BOOMERS
Median age:
61
83,000,000
74,000,000 75,000,000
TODAY:
21 65 US Census

25 43
MILLENNIALS
Median age:
34
It’s their world now…
2025:
44 61
GEN X
Median age:
53
62 80
BOOMERS
Median age:
71
87,000,000
69,000,000 70,000,000
20 30 50 7010 40 60 80
21 65 US Census

Follow The Proven
Millennial Placemaking
Playbook

RALEIGH
NC
WASH.
DC
CHARLOTTE
NC
AUSTIN
TX
ATLANTA
GA
Denver
CO
Is safe 89% 87% 86% 91% 81% 90%
options
90% 82% 83% 85% 82% 87%
Quality and affordability of housing
options
92% 83% 87% 87% 83% 83%
Has easy public transportation 42% 66% 40% 47% 46% 60%
54% 48% 60% 61% 54% 57%
Is diverse 60% 63% 55% 69% 55% 55%
Has rich history 42% 47% 39% 41% 42% 42%
152
Placemaking Attributes
Raleigh, NC
n = 198
Washington, DC
n = 199
Charlotte, NC
n = 200
Austin, TX
n = 194
Atlanta, GA
n = 204
Denver, CO
n = 195
Q20. When you think about a city as a place you’d really want to live, how important are each of the following to
you?
PLACEMAKING

“We followed SIR’s research to attract
and retain more young professionals —
and the strategy worked.”
Chrystal Neal
ChamberRVA Senior Vice President

Tap Third-Party Supporters
How would you distribute $100
among these transportation
services and needs?

Investment in
“transit” is tied
with roads!
Q13. How would you distribute the $100 among these services and needs?
Total n = 306
Total
Public transit service $31
Passenger train service $17
Sidewalks and bicycle paths $15
Local secondary roads such
as Broad Street and Hull
Street
$12
Intercity highways such as I-
95 and I-64
$11
Local highways such as
Powhite Parkway
$8
Airport facility $7
TOTAL: $100
$31
$31

Our Case or Share Of Mind Is Rising
2005 2009 2015
Public transit service $13 $17 $31
Passenger train service $15 $13 $17
Sidewalks and bicycle paths $8 $10 $15
Local secondary roads such as
Broad Street and Hull Street
$18 $17 $12
Intercity highways such as
I-95 and I-64
$18 $19 $11
Local highways such as Powhite
Parkway
$17 $15 $8
Airport facility $12 $7 $7
TOTAL: $100 $100 $100

Your Shared Future
Roads, autonomous vehicles,
shared use vehicles and a network of public
transit options are all hype-connected and
seamlessly integrated as your customers’
personal transportation system – to make a
15-minute community a connected place.

What are your most pressing
operational needs - practice areas
where Rail~Volution could help?
What type of conference content
do you want to see at future
Rail~Volution conferences?
1.
2.

How to arrive at a shared vision
for your community.

How to recruit, motivate,
and support a growing base
of apostles.

How to design and run
market-wide communications
to get everyone onboard.

Access to a Database of
public policies that shape
transportation choices
and livability.

Case study examples of
communities that are doing it
right — what and how.

More local leaders sharing
what’s working in their cities.

More national leaders
and experts sharing
trends and insights.

More peer to peer
networking opportunities.

International perspectives
on mobility and livability.

THANK YOU
John W. Martin
john.martin@sirhq.com

Rail~Volution 2017 John Martin | Headwinds or Tailwinds?

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