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Net Dollar Retention (NDR)
Key Benchmarks at $50M, $200M, $1B ARR
Dave Kellogg, Principal
Dave Kellogg Consulting
www.kellblog.com | @kellblog
6/11/21
Revision 1.7
1
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Biography and Shameless Social Media Plugs
• CMO 10+ years
• 2.2 companies
• From $5M to $1B
• CEO 10+ years
• 2 companies
• From $0 to $80M
• Independent director 10+ years
• 7 companies
• 3 great exits; 4 in progress
Slide 2
Thursdays
8:00 AM Pacific
on Clubhouse
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The Answer Is
104%
Slide 3
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Agenda
• How did NDR become the metric of choice?
• Why NDR matters?
• What does good look like?
Slide 4
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How Did NDR Become The
Metric of Choice?
Slide 5
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In the Beginning There was Churn and LTV
• Leaky bucket metaphor
• Sales pours ARR in; CS prevents leakage out
• Churn rate = amount leaked / amount in bucket
• Simple concept brought subtle ambiguity
• Leaked before or after expansion (gross vs. net)
• Total in bucket or up for renewal (ARR vs. ATR)
• And polluted downstream metrics
• Customer lifetime (CLT) = 1 / churn rate
• 4 possible churn rates meant 4 CLTs
• Lifetime value (LTV) dependent on CLT
• LTV/CAC ratio dependent on LTV
Slide 6
“Other than an ambiguous numerator and denominator, LTV/CAC is a fine ratio.”
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The Laundry List of Problems with Churn and LTV Metrics
• Multi-year deals brought the concept of available to renew (ATR)
• 4 different churn rates  4 different customer lifetimes (CLT)  downstream metrics pollution
• Heavily forward-weighted and/or infinite lifetimes due low or negative churn rates
• 20-year CLT at 3-year-old company
• Timing issues
• 100 units expands to 120 and renews at 105: 5 units of expansion or 15 of churn?
• LTV analysis assumes annuity payment stream (LTV = CLT * ARR)
• Contracts typically expand through inflation indexing, additional seats, price increases, edition upgrades, new products,
and increasingly, consumption or usage fees
• Typically not disclosed by public companies
• Subject to gaming
• $1 renewals to preserve count-based renewal metrics
• Excluding churn from customers below some size floor
• Survivor bias by excluding discontinuing customers
Slide 7
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“ARR is a fact.
LTV is an opinion.”
(As was once said about cash versus profit)
Slide 8
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Why NDR is a Better Metric for Installed Base Value
• Less ambiguous
• No four-churn-rates problem, no downstream metrics pollution, no timing issues
• Harder to game
• Though survivor bias and arbitrary floors are still possible
• Math doesn’t break under desired scenarios
• Negative churn is good and should not break the model
• More empirical
• Look at what’s happening rather than projecting into the future
• Built for the reality that SaaS contracts aren’t annuities (i.e., steams of equal payments)
• We want (and increasingly build in) expansion
• Public companies more willing to disclose NDR than churn
• The vast majority do
Slide 9
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What’s in a Name?
(NDR is also known as dollar-based net retention)
Net = after netting expansion and
shrinkage
Gross dollar retention = before offsetting shrinkage
with expansion
Dollar = using contract size in ARR
dollars, not customer logo counts
Begs pesky issues with currencies
Retention = % of starting ARR retained
Now divided-by then for year-ago customer cohort
10
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Why NDR Matters?
Slide 11
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NDR is a Key Company Valuation Driver
Slide 12
Source: Meritech Public Comps – see references slide
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NDR has the Highest Explanatory Power of Enterprise-
Value-to-Revenue Multiple (EV/R)
Slide 13
Source: Meritech Public Comps – see references slide (as of 6/9/21)
Metric
R^2 to
EV/NTM Revenue Multiple
NDR 0.40
NTM Revenue Growth 0.37
Implied ARR Growth 0.29
CAC Payback Period 0.17
Rule of 40 0.15
Magic Number 0.08
Gross Margin 0.00
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NDR Buys Customer Success a Seat at the Table
• NDR is becoming the leading SaaS metric
• Customer Success is widely viewed as owning all or part of NDR
• Expansion doesn’t happen without successful onboarding and consistent attainment of business objectives
• Typically either identifies, supports, or sells expansion opportunities
• Customer Success people are often “nice” by background (cf: salespeople)
• Sometimes feel like they don’t have a seat at the table despite carrying big numbers
• Often reluctant to pressure the organization to deliver what they need for success
• Thanks to NDR focus, Customer Success has not just the right but the obligation
• To identify key dependencies for its success
• To hold the organization accountable for delivering
• Watch how Sales does this; they’re usually pretty good at it
Slide 14
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What Does Good Look Like?
Slide 15
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RevOps2 B2B Benchmarks Report
Slide 16
Source: RevOps Squared, pre-release report https://www.revopssquared.com/
Breaking
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My Swag at Benchmarking NDR
Stage Minimal Good Very Good Snowflake
Early (~$10M) 90% 100% 110%
Growth (~$50M) 95% 105% 115%
Approaching IPO (~$200M) 100% 110% 120%
Public (~$1B) 100% 110% 120% 168%
Slide 17
Disclaimers
• Not scientific; back-of-the-envelope estimates based on reviewing various surveys
• Minimal = investors likely to raise eyebrows – “we have questions about your NDR”
• Good = investors likely to think it’s in their desired range – “your NDR looks in-line”
• Very good = investors will tell portfolio companies to be like you – “I think typical is …”
See Appendix for various sources and references
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Applying the NDR Benchmarks
• Function of stage
• Early days often more about “land” than “expand”
• Function of expansion model
• Seats, editions, products, consumption
• Function of business model
• Workday 100% – big deals, upfront, long-term
• Function of target market
• HubSpot 102% – need to offset presumably high SMB churn
• Function of sales motion
• Slack 123% – freemium, land-and-expand motion
• Function of pricing model
• Twilio 133% and Snowflake 168% -- usage/consumption-based pricing
Slide 18
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OpenView
NDR Analysis
by Pricing
Model
Slide 19
Source: OpenView Expansion SaaS Benchmarks
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Thinking About Consumption-Based Models
Slide 20
Sound
familiar?
Source: https://openviewpartners.com/blog/usage-based-pricing-2-0
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Conclusions • Churn and LTV had a good run
• But the world is increasingly focused on NDR
• NDR explains valuation more than either forward revenue
growth or Rule of 40 score
• NDR buys Customer Success a seat at the table; use it to
hold the organization accountable for delivering for CS
• While NDR varies with expansion model, sales motion, and
other factors, it’s remarkably consistent across size
• Remember one number: 104% (median)
• 7 of the top 9 NDR rate public companies have a usage-
based (aka, consumption-based) model
• Usage will be nearly as transformational as was SaaS itself
Slide 21
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Appendix
Slide 22
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UiPath S-1 Excerpt
Slide 23
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OpenView NDR Pie Chart
Slide 24
Source: OpenView Expansion SaaS Benchmarks
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OpenView NDR by Target Customer Type
Slide 25
Source: OpenView Expansion SaaS Benchmarks
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Meritech Public Comps Table Excerpt
Slide 26
Source: Meritech Public Comps
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JMP NDR Bar Chart (Coverage Universe)
Slide 27
Source: JMP Securities
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JMP GDR (Gross) Bar Chart (Coverage Universe)
28
Source: JMP Securities
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RevOps2 Gross (GDR) Rates
Slide 29
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KeyBanc Gross Churn by Company Size
Slide 30
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WalkMe S-1 Highlighting NDR in Size Segment
Slide 31
Source: https://www.meritechcapital.com/blog/walkme-ipo-s-1-breakdown
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Snowflake Metrics from Public Comps
Slide 32
Source: https://publiccomps.com/
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Bessemer Usage-Based Premium
Slide 33
Source: https://www.bvp.com/atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2021
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Insight Case for Usage-Based Pricing
Slide 34
Source: https://www.insightpartners.com/blog/how-usage-based-pricing-fueled-two-2020-ipos/
All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Insight Usage-Based != Pay As You Go
Slide 35
Source: https://www.insightpartners.com/blog/how-usage-based-pricing-fueled-two-2020-ipos/
All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Snowflake S-1 Net Revenue Retention Rate
Slide 36
Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1640147/000162828020013010/snowflakes-1.htm/
Trailing
Capacity
contracts
Cohort No survivor
bias? Various
adjustments
and perhaps
exclusions
Unclear,
includes custs
not in cohort?
All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Twilio Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate
Slide 37
Survivor bias?
Floor, trial
exclusion
Need to
aggregate
For those with
minimums
End of
exclusion
Not survivor-
biased? Trailing?
Cohort based?
All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
References / Further Reading
• https://www.revopssquared.com/
• https://www.meritechcapital.com/public-comparables/enterprise#/public-comparables/enterprise/valuation-metrics
• https://www.key.com/kco/images/2020_KBCM_SaaS_Survey_8102020.pdf
• https://publiccomps.com/tickers?items=High+Growth+SaaS
• https://openviewpartners.com/blog/usage-based-pricing-2-0/
• https://kellblog.com/2020/09/02/churn-is-dead-long-live-net-dollar-retention-slides-from-my-saastr-2020-presentation/
• https://kellblog.com/2014/07/26/you-cant-analyze-churn-by-analyzing-churn/
• https://kellblog.com/2014/07/30/the-ultimate-saas-metric-ltv-cac/
• https://kellblog.com/2015/04/27/survivor-bias-in-churn-calculations-say-its-not-so/
• https://www.saastr.com/what-are-some-tricks-software-companies-can-use-to-manipulate-churn-metrics/
• https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/constantcurrencies.asp
• https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp
Slide 38

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Dave Kellogg GainSight Pulse Everywhere 20201: NDR Key Benchmarks

  • 1. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Net Dollar Retention (NDR) Key Benchmarks at $50M, $200M, $1B ARR Dave Kellogg, Principal Dave Kellogg Consulting www.kellblog.com | @kellblog 6/11/21 Revision 1.7 1 All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
  • 2. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Biography and Shameless Social Media Plugs • CMO 10+ years • 2.2 companies • From $5M to $1B • CEO 10+ years • 2 companies • From $0 to $80M • Independent director 10+ years • 7 companies • 3 great exits; 4 in progress Slide 2 Thursdays 8:00 AM Pacific on Clubhouse
  • 3. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. The Answer Is 104% Slide 3
  • 4. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Agenda • How did NDR become the metric of choice? • Why NDR matters? • What does good look like? Slide 4
  • 5. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. How Did NDR Become The Metric of Choice? Slide 5
  • 6. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. In the Beginning There was Churn and LTV • Leaky bucket metaphor • Sales pours ARR in; CS prevents leakage out • Churn rate = amount leaked / amount in bucket • Simple concept brought subtle ambiguity • Leaked before or after expansion (gross vs. net) • Total in bucket or up for renewal (ARR vs. ATR) • And polluted downstream metrics • Customer lifetime (CLT) = 1 / churn rate • 4 possible churn rates meant 4 CLTs • Lifetime value (LTV) dependent on CLT • LTV/CAC ratio dependent on LTV Slide 6 “Other than an ambiguous numerator and denominator, LTV/CAC is a fine ratio.”
  • 7. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. The Laundry List of Problems with Churn and LTV Metrics • Multi-year deals brought the concept of available to renew (ATR) • 4 different churn rates  4 different customer lifetimes (CLT)  downstream metrics pollution • Heavily forward-weighted and/or infinite lifetimes due low or negative churn rates • 20-year CLT at 3-year-old company • Timing issues • 100 units expands to 120 and renews at 105: 5 units of expansion or 15 of churn? • LTV analysis assumes annuity payment stream (LTV = CLT * ARR) • Contracts typically expand through inflation indexing, additional seats, price increases, edition upgrades, new products, and increasingly, consumption or usage fees • Typically not disclosed by public companies • Subject to gaming • $1 renewals to preserve count-based renewal metrics • Excluding churn from customers below some size floor • Survivor bias by excluding discontinuing customers Slide 7
  • 8. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. “ARR is a fact. LTV is an opinion.” (As was once said about cash versus profit) Slide 8
  • 9. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Why NDR is a Better Metric for Installed Base Value • Less ambiguous • No four-churn-rates problem, no downstream metrics pollution, no timing issues • Harder to game • Though survivor bias and arbitrary floors are still possible • Math doesn’t break under desired scenarios • Negative churn is good and should not break the model • More empirical • Look at what’s happening rather than projecting into the future • Built for the reality that SaaS contracts aren’t annuities (i.e., steams of equal payments) • We want (and increasingly build in) expansion • Public companies more willing to disclose NDR than churn • The vast majority do Slide 9
  • 10. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. What’s in a Name? (NDR is also known as dollar-based net retention) Net = after netting expansion and shrinkage Gross dollar retention = before offsetting shrinkage with expansion Dollar = using contract size in ARR dollars, not customer logo counts Begs pesky issues with currencies Retention = % of starting ARR retained Now divided-by then for year-ago customer cohort 10
  • 11. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Why NDR Matters? Slide 11
  • 12. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. NDR is a Key Company Valuation Driver Slide 12 Source: Meritech Public Comps – see references slide
  • 13. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. NDR has the Highest Explanatory Power of Enterprise- Value-to-Revenue Multiple (EV/R) Slide 13 Source: Meritech Public Comps – see references slide (as of 6/9/21) Metric R^2 to EV/NTM Revenue Multiple NDR 0.40 NTM Revenue Growth 0.37 Implied ARR Growth 0.29 CAC Payback Period 0.17 Rule of 40 0.15 Magic Number 0.08 Gross Margin 0.00
  • 14. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. NDR Buys Customer Success a Seat at the Table • NDR is becoming the leading SaaS metric • Customer Success is widely viewed as owning all or part of NDR • Expansion doesn’t happen without successful onboarding and consistent attainment of business objectives • Typically either identifies, supports, or sells expansion opportunities • Customer Success people are often “nice” by background (cf: salespeople) • Sometimes feel like they don’t have a seat at the table despite carrying big numbers • Often reluctant to pressure the organization to deliver what they need for success • Thanks to NDR focus, Customer Success has not just the right but the obligation • To identify key dependencies for its success • To hold the organization accountable for delivering • Watch how Sales does this; they’re usually pretty good at it Slide 14
  • 15. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. What Does Good Look Like? Slide 15
  • 16. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. RevOps2 B2B Benchmarks Report Slide 16 Source: RevOps Squared, pre-release report https://www.revopssquared.com/ Breaking
  • 17. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. My Swag at Benchmarking NDR Stage Minimal Good Very Good Snowflake Early (~$10M) 90% 100% 110% Growth (~$50M) 95% 105% 115% Approaching IPO (~$200M) 100% 110% 120% Public (~$1B) 100% 110% 120% 168% Slide 17 Disclaimers • Not scientific; back-of-the-envelope estimates based on reviewing various surveys • Minimal = investors likely to raise eyebrows – “we have questions about your NDR” • Good = investors likely to think it’s in their desired range – “your NDR looks in-line” • Very good = investors will tell portfolio companies to be like you – “I think typical is …” See Appendix for various sources and references
  • 18. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Applying the NDR Benchmarks • Function of stage • Early days often more about “land” than “expand” • Function of expansion model • Seats, editions, products, consumption • Function of business model • Workday 100% – big deals, upfront, long-term • Function of target market • HubSpot 102% – need to offset presumably high SMB churn • Function of sales motion • Slack 123% – freemium, land-and-expand motion • Function of pricing model • Twilio 133% and Snowflake 168% -- usage/consumption-based pricing Slide 18
  • 19. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. OpenView NDR Analysis by Pricing Model Slide 19 Source: OpenView Expansion SaaS Benchmarks
  • 20. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Thinking About Consumption-Based Models Slide 20 Sound familiar? Source: https://openviewpartners.com/blog/usage-based-pricing-2-0
  • 21. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Conclusions • Churn and LTV had a good run • But the world is increasingly focused on NDR • NDR explains valuation more than either forward revenue growth or Rule of 40 score • NDR buys Customer Success a seat at the table; use it to hold the organization accountable for delivering for CS • While NDR varies with expansion model, sales motion, and other factors, it’s remarkably consistent across size • Remember one number: 104% (median) • 7 of the top 9 NDR rate public companies have a usage- based (aka, consumption-based) model • Usage will be nearly as transformational as was SaaS itself Slide 21
  • 22. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Appendix Slide 22
  • 23. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. UiPath S-1 Excerpt Slide 23
  • 24. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. OpenView NDR Pie Chart Slide 24 Source: OpenView Expansion SaaS Benchmarks
  • 25. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. OpenView NDR by Target Customer Type Slide 25 Source: OpenView Expansion SaaS Benchmarks
  • 26. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Meritech Public Comps Table Excerpt Slide 26 Source: Meritech Public Comps
  • 27. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. JMP NDR Bar Chart (Coverage Universe) Slide 27 Source: JMP Securities
  • 28. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. JMP GDR (Gross) Bar Chart (Coverage Universe) 28 Source: JMP Securities
  • 29. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. RevOps2 Gross (GDR) Rates Slide 29
  • 30. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. KeyBanc Gross Churn by Company Size Slide 30
  • 31. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. WalkMe S-1 Highlighting NDR in Size Segment Slide 31 Source: https://www.meritechcapital.com/blog/walkme-ipo-s-1-breakdown
  • 32. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Snowflake Metrics from Public Comps Slide 32 Source: https://publiccomps.com/
  • 33. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Bessemer Usage-Based Premium Slide 33 Source: https://www.bvp.com/atlas/state-of-the-cloud-2021
  • 34. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Insight Case for Usage-Based Pricing Slide 34 Source: https://www.insightpartners.com/blog/how-usage-based-pricing-fueled-two-2020-ipos/
  • 35. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Insight Usage-Based != Pay As You Go Slide 35 Source: https://www.insightpartners.com/blog/how-usage-based-pricing-fueled-two-2020-ipos/
  • 36. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Snowflake S-1 Net Revenue Retention Rate Slide 36 Source: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1640147/000162828020013010/snowflakes-1.htm/ Trailing Capacity contracts Cohort No survivor bias? Various adjustments and perhaps exclusions Unclear, includes custs not in cohort?
  • 37. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. Twilio Dollar-Based Net Expansion Rate Slide 37 Survivor bias? Floor, trial exclusion Need to aggregate For those with minimums End of exclusion Not survivor- biased? Trailing? Cohort based?
  • 38. All content licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. References / Further Reading • https://www.revopssquared.com/ • https://www.meritechcapital.com/public-comparables/enterprise#/public-comparables/enterprise/valuation-metrics • https://www.key.com/kco/images/2020_KBCM_SaaS_Survey_8102020.pdf • https://publiccomps.com/tickers?items=High+Growth+SaaS • https://openviewpartners.com/blog/usage-based-pricing-2-0/ • https://kellblog.com/2020/09/02/churn-is-dead-long-live-net-dollar-retention-slides-from-my-saastr-2020-presentation/ • https://kellblog.com/2014/07/26/you-cant-analyze-churn-by-analyzing-churn/ • https://kellblog.com/2014/07/30/the-ultimate-saas-metric-ltv-cac/ • https://kellblog.com/2015/04/27/survivor-bias-in-churn-calculations-say-its-not-so/ • https://www.saastr.com/what-are-some-tricks-software-companies-can-use-to-manipulate-churn-metrics/ • https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/constantcurrencies.asp • https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/r-squared.asp Slide 38

Editor's Notes

  1. Additional fallacy = annuity assumption, i.e., that ARR was stream of steady (non-increasing) payments
  2. Slide is less about net dollar retention vs. net euro retention vs. net contract-size retention and more about reminding people of exchange rate impacts on the ARR pool and NDR.
  3. R^2 = coefficient of determination
  4. On theory that in early stages you really shouldn’t be that focused on expansion, unless you are trying to prove out land-and-expand model if there’s some doubt it will work. Usually early days are more land-focused. See OpenView for best $0 to $50M metrics
  5. Do this wrong, get either 1. Big commitment with big minimum that doesn’t get used 2. Big overage charge that customer hates