Climate Change: Causes, Impacts and Vulnerability Assessment

Climate Change: Causes, Impacts and
Vulnerability Assessment
R&D Project
Presented by,
Parvathi Ram Thota,
Roll No. 128080001,
MPhil 2012-14
HS 693
Department of Humanities & Social Sciences
Indian Institute of Technology, Bombay

Introduction
• Climate change and its effects frequently cited as most serious
environmental problems facing humankind (UNDP, 2002).
• Further exacerbated by failure to adequately address poverty
and environmental degradation (Norgaard, 1994).
• IPCC’s confirmation that impacts of human activities cause
climate change.
• Increased concentrations of green house gases in the
atmosphere implying society moved beyond possibility of
“primordial prevention” (McMichael & Kovats, 2000).
• Sensitivity and vulnerability of human and natural systems to
determine how impacts will be experienced and withstood.
2

Introduction (Contd.)
• “Collective Failure” of abatement endeavours. Political and
Economic challenges coupled with Scientific uncertainties
contribute to delaying action (WRI, 2004).
• In this context, the following slides attempt to trace and
elaborate the science, theories, history, conventions, impacts
and the concept of vulnerability in climate change perspective.
3

Objectives of future dissertation study
• To study the impact of climate change on a coastal region of
India and on different sectors such as agriculture, fishing
activities, biodiversity, health as well as on farmers, fishing
communities and affected vulnerable people in the concerned
region.
• To analyse the impacts of climate change on the socio-
economic aspects of the concerned region.
4

The Science of Climate Change
• Weather and climate have a deep influence on life on Earth.
• “Weather” experienced on day-to-day basis. Momentary
atmospheric state characterized by temperature, precipitation,
wind etc. “Climate” as average weather. Ranging from few
months to thousands of years. Climate statistics typically
calculated for 30 years (Solomon, et al., 2007).
• Climate system: Complex and Interactive.
• Changes in Internal dynamics and External “Forcings” affect
climate. Feedback mechanisms in climate system to amplify or
diminish affects (Baede, et al., 2001).
5

Components, Processes & Interactions of Climate System
6
Source: (Baede, Ahlonsou, Ding, & Schimel, 2001)

Definitions of Climate Change
• IPCC defines climate change as a statistically significant variation
in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability,
persisting for an extended period. Climate change may be due to
natural internal processes or external forcings, or persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in
land use (Houghton, et al., 2001).
• UNFCCC defines climate change as “a change of climate which is
attributed directly or indirectly to human activity that alters the
composition of the global atmosphere and which is in addition to
natural variability observed over comparable time periods”
(UNFCCC, 1994).
7

Theories of Climate Change
• Common theory of climate change: “Anthropogenic Global
Warming theory”.
• Green house gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere trap heat (known as
‘green-house effect’) and keep the Earth’s surface in a suitable
temperature range to sustain life.
• Alteration of concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere due to
human (anthropogenic) activities has led to increased warming of
the earth (known as ‘Global Warming’). Mechanism whereby this
happens is called the ‘enhanced green-house effect’ (Solomon, et
al., 2007).
• Continued burning of fossil fuels and deforestation could double the
amount of CO2 in the atmosphere in the next 100 years, assuming
natural “sinks” don’t grow in pace with emissions (Bast, 2010).
8

Energy
Supply
26%
Industry
19%
Forestry
17%
Agriculture
14%
Transport
13%
Others
11%
GHG Emissions
9
Source: (Kirby, et al., 2009)

• The second theory holds that negative feedbacks from biological
and chemical processes offset whatever positive feedbacks might
be caused by rising CO2; “Global bio-thermostat” (Idso & Singer,
2009). E.g. Carbon Sequestration, COS etc.
• The third theory postulates that changes in the formation and
albedo of clouds create negative feedbacks that cancel out the
warming effect of higher levels of CO2 (Sud, Walker & Lau, 1999).
• The fourth theory holds that mankind’s greatest influence on
climate is not its GHG emissions, but its transformation of
Earth’s surface by clearing forests, irrigating deserts, and building
cities (human forcings) (Pielke Sr, 2009).
10

• The fifth theory contends that global temperature variations over
the past century and a half were due to the slow-down of the
ocean’s Thermohaline Circulation (THC) (Gray, 2009).
• The sixth theory of contends that most of the warming of the latter
part of the 20th century can be explained by natural gravitational
and magnetic oscillations of the solar system induced by the
planet’s movement through space (Scafetta & West, 2009).
• The seventh theory states that solar variability accounts for most
of the warming in the late 20th century and will dominate climate
in the 21st century regardless of man-made GHGs (Bast, 2010).
• Volcanic eruptions and drift of continents.
11

History of Anthropogenic Climate Change
Year Event
1712 Thomas Newcomen. First widely used steam engine
1800 World Population: 1 billion
1861 John Tyndall. Water vapour & other gases create GH effect
1886 Karl Benz. Motorwagen; first true automobile
1896 Svante Arrhenius. Industrial coal burning enhanced GH effect
1900 Knut Angstrom. Trace gas (CO2) can produce GH warming
1927 Carbon emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 1 bn tonnes
1930 World Population: 2 billion
1938 Guy Callender. Temperatures had risen over previous century
1960 World Population: 3 billion (1 bn increase in 30 years)
1962 Charles Keeling. Atmospheric CO2 concentrations rising
1972 1st UN environment conference in Stockholm. UNEP
12Source: (Black, 2011)

History of Anthropogenic Climate Change
Year Event
1975 World Population: 4 billion (1 bn increase in 15 years)
1987 World Popn: 5 bn. Montreal Protocol to protect “ozone layer”
1989 Carbon Emissions from fossil fuel and industry: 6 bn tonnes
1990 IPCC’s 1st Assessment Report. Temp. rise by 0.3-0.6 C. Anthropogenic
1992 Earth Summit. UNFCCC agreed to. Stabilization of GHG conc.
1997 Kyoto protocol. Developd nations to reduce emissions by aver of 5%
1999 World Population: 6 billion. 2nd Population boom.
2006 Stern Review. CC could damage global GDP by upto 20%. 8 bn tonnes
2007 IPCC 4th AR: 90% likely that human emissions resp for modern day CC
2008 Keeling Project: CO2 conc rise from 315 ppm (1958) to 380 ppm
2009 China overtakes US as the biggest GHG emitter. Copenhagen Accord
2010 Developed Countries “Fast Start Finance” to green their economies
13Source: (Black, 2011)

Climate Change Conferences prior to UNFCCC
• Political attention to CC originated from scientific efforts to
understand the effects of rising conc. of GHGs in the atmosphere,
and enhanced GH effect (Oppenheimer & Petsonk, 2004).
• 1st World Climate Conference (1979) motivated by the interest to
review knowledge of natural and anthropogenic climate change, and
assess future implications (Bodansky, 1993).
• 1985 and 1987 Villach and 1987 Bellagio Conferences concluded
that an enhanced GH effect was evident and -ve impacts on humans
and ecosystems might be experienced. WCED report (1987)
proposed a four-track approach for managing CC (UNGA, 1987).
• 1989 developing nations conference on the impacts of CC. ‘North-
South’ dimensions of CC highlighted (Bodansky, 1993).
14

UNFCCC
• 1990, UN General Assembly established an “Intergovernmental
Negotiating Committee” (INC) for developing a framework
convention on CC. Composed of diplomats; addressed CC from
political perspective.
• United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) adopted in May 1992.
• UNFCCC sets basic principles, commitments, institutional and
procedural mechanisms for implementation of CC policies
globally.
• Functions through a negotiating body consisting of those
countries that are ‘Parties’ to the Convention.
• Parties meet at one session of the Conference of the Parties (COP),
and in two sessions of the COP's subsidiary bodies (SBI and
SBSTA). Source: (Bodansky, 1993)
15

UNFCCC & Kyoto Protocol
• COP-1: Mandate to negotiate a protocol or legal instrument to
strengthen GHG reduction commitments for developed countries.
• Quantified limitation & reduction objectives (within specific time-
frames e.g., 2005, 2010, 2020) for emissions by sources & removals
by sinks of GHGs not controlled by Montreal Protocol.
• Kyoto Protocol was adopted on 11th December, 1997. Reduction
commitments for developed countries on six green-house gases.
• Annex-B countries to reduce the combined emissions by at least 5%
of levels in 1990 by the 1st commitment period (2008-2012). Source:
(Clark, et al., 2001).US participation contingent upon the largest
developing countries taking on commitments to reduce emissions.
• Debate on equity questions surrounding industrialization and
development.
16

Indian Context
• CC attributed to industrialization, and countries labelled
"developing" argue for equal right to industrialization (Agarwal, et
al., 1999). Indian climate politics shaped around economic growth,
and under international pressure, forced to grapple with CC
(Dubash, 2012).
• Low levels of historical and per capita emissions. However, blame
on India and China for heating up the earth…excellent example of
“environmental colonialism” (Agarwal & Narain, 1991). CSE
report: Idea of ‘per capita based formulations of emissions’in
negotiations with the international community (Govindrajan, 1997).
• Copenhagen COP, commitment to limit India’s per capita emissions
to the average levels of industrialized countries, & a NAPCC.
• 3 vital aspects: hiding behind the poor (disparities in emissions
levels), perspectives on climate adaptation and energy security.
17

Indian Context (Contd.)
• Promote development objectives while also yielding “co‐benefits”
for addressing CC effectively. E.g., Clean energy and Energy
efficiency (Dubash, 2012).
• Co‐benefits frame as the defining construct for Indian policy on
climate change, GoI’s initiation of NAPCC. Outlines existing and
future policies and programs addressing development and climate
mitigation, adaptation.
• Various national missions with time bound targets: solar mission
(1000 MW/year), mission for enhanced energy efficiency (savings
of 10,000 MW by 2012), water mission (20% improvement),
mission for green India (forest cover from 23% to 33%),
sustainable agriculture, strategic knowledge for CC (CSRF, venture
capital funds). Source: (NAPCC, 2008).
18

Social Dimensions of Climate Change
• CC poses challenges to prosperity, growth, equitable, sustainable
development and systems of governance. Threatens long-term
resilience of societies and communities (Mearns and Norton,
2010).
• Human systems tied to established climate systems like
periodicity of monsoons; climate change creates societal stress.
Especially true for the poor, who have fewer resources and rely
more directly on local ecosystems (Christoplos, et al., 2009).
• Communities whose livelihoods are highly dependent on natural
resources; most vulnerable to CC. Indigenous and traditional
communities pushed to least fertile and most fragile territories
as a consequence of exclusion at greatest risk (Macchi, et al.,
2008).
19

Social Dimensions of Climate Change (Contd.)
• Glaring inequities in distribution of responsibility and impacts of
CC among nations and people of the world. Poor people in
developing countries bear the brunt of impacts while contributing
little to causes (Salick and Byg, 2010).
• CC is one of a important set of factors that affect human migration
and displacement worldwide (Warner, 2011).
• CC interacts with other stresses on human systems; either
reducing or exacerbating them (drought---rural urban migration---
stress on urban infra & SE conditions) (Wilbanks, et al., 2007).
• Marginal groups of society adapt to CC in ways usually unnoticed,
uncoordinated, & unaided by govts or develop. agencies. Have
valuable knowledge about adapting to CC; but magnitude of future
hazards may exceed their adaptive capacity (Macchi, et al., 2008)
20

Impacts of Climate Change
• CC leads to changes in geophysical, biological and socio-economic
systems. Impact describes a specific change in a system caused by
its exposure to CC. May be harmful or beneficial (Schneider, et al,
2007).
• Include changes in wind-pattern, precipitation, temperature,
ocean pH, and changes in weather extremes, sea ice and sea-level
which will then impact natural ecosystems and human societies.
• Some examples of geo-physical changes: warming over land and at
highest northern latitudes, and least over Southern Ocean; increase
in frequency of extremes of heat and precipitation; increase in
tropical cyclone intensity; increased precipitation in high latitudes,
and decrease in most sub-tropical land regions (Metz, Davidson,
Bosch, Dave, & Meyer, 2007).
21

Sea Level Rise
Shrinking of the Greenland ice sheet projected to contribute to rising
sea levels until after 2100 (Metz, et al., 2007 & Kirby, et al., 2009).
Rising sea levels result in increased pressure for coastal protection in
South East Asia, small islands in the Caribbean and the Pacific, and
large coastal cities, such as New York, Cairo and London. By 2050s,
200 mn people may become permanently displaced due to rising sea
levels, heavier floods, and intense droughts (Stern, 2006).
Melting glaciers will initially increase flood risk and then strongly
reduce water supplies, threatening one-sixth of the world’s population,
predominantly in the Indian sub-continent, parts of China, and the
Andes in South America.
23

Ecosystems
Ecosystems will be particularly vulnerable to climate change, with
around 15-30% of species potentially facing extinction after only 1.5-
2.5°C of warming (Kirby, et al., 2009 & NRC, 2012).
Ecosystem changes accompanied by shifts in geographical ranges of
animal and plant species, with harmful consequences for the natural
world and for the goods and services which ecosystems provide.
Ocean Acidification
Oceans 30% more acidic than during pre-industrial times (NRC,
2010e). Average ocean surface pH is about 8.1. Has potential to
radically alter marine ecosystems and expected to harm pelagic fish,
marine creatures which form shells and their dependent species (NRC,
2010e, Kirby, et al., 2009).
24

Food Security
Higher latitudes: initial slight increase in crop productivity for
temperature rises below 3ºC, followed by a decrease. Lower latitudes:
productivity may decrease for even small temperature rises.
Declining crop yields, especially in Africa and parts of Asia; hundreds
of millions without the ability to produce or purchase sufficient food.
Freshwater Supply
Worsen ‘water-stress’ caused by population growth and land-use change.
Severe loss of glaciers and snow fields; reducing water availability.
Expected to change seasonal flows in regions fed by melt water from
mountain ranges like Hindu Kush, Himalayas and Andes. 2 bn people
depend on water from seven major Himalayan rivers in Asia (Parry, et
al., 2007, Kirby, et al., 2009 & NRC, 2012).
25

Water Supply (contd)
Changes in precipitation and temperature also affect run-off and water
availability. Some semi-arid areas, for example around the
Mediterranean, southern Africa and north-eastern Brazil, will have less
water. Areas affected by drought are projected to increase.
Rising temperatures will affect fresh water quality, and in coastal areas
rising sea levels will mean more saline contamination of groundwater
(Kirby, et al., 2009)
Public Health
Health of millions of people at risk from increases in malnutrition,
heat stress, diarrheal diseases, vector borne diseases, heart and
breathing problems caused by climate induced ground level ozone, and
the spread of some infectious diseases.
26

Industry, Agriculture, livelihoods, settlements and society
Most vulnerable: those in coastal and river flood plains, whose
economies closely linked with climate-sensitive resources and areas
prone to extreme weather events.
Agricultural yields and livelihoods affected by climate-related impacts
on the quantity and quality of water resources. As temperatures
increase, need for irrigation will rise in areas projected to become drier.
Middle East and South-East Asia will suffer increasing water stress
(Parry, et al., 2007).
CC exacerbates existing stresses on agriculture sector such as the
limited availability of water, land degradation, biodiversity loss etc;
thus making already sensitive systems even more vulnerable.
27

Migration
IPCC: greatest single impact of climate change could be on human
migration, with millions of people displaced by shoreline erosion,
coastal flooding and severe drought (IPCC, 1990).
CC produces environmental effects and exacerbates current
vulnerabilities making it difficult for people to survive where they are.
Gradual changes (desertification, drought) have greater impact on
movement of people than extreme events (cyclones, storms). Between
1979-2008, 718 mn people affected by storms as compared to 1.6 bn
people affected by droughts (International Emergencies Disaster
Database (EM-DAT), 2009).
Mass influx of migrants can affect environment in places of destination
and along transit routes. Can lead to overexploitation of resources and
destruction of livelihoods in the host environment.
28

Climate Change and impact on India
Indian sectors having highest vulnerability to CC impacts: water
resources, coastal ecosystems, biodiversity, and agricultural productivity.
700 mn in rural areas depend on climate-sensitive sectors and natural
resources. Adaptive capacity of dry land farmers, forest dwellers, fisher
folk and nomadic shepherds very low.
The per capita availability of freshwater to drop from 1,900 m3 (2007) to
1,000 m3 (2025). More intense rain, frequent flash floods in monsoons to
result in a higher runoff and reduction in groundwater recharge.
Himalayan river systems draining into Ganga basin gradually dying out.
Changes to the monsoon are expected to result in severe droughts and
intense flooding in parts of India. Source: (Kapur, et al, 2009 & Tyagi, 2003 )
IARI estimates that with every one degree celsius rise in temperature,
India will lose 4-5 million tonnes in wheat production (Sharma, 2008).
29

Projected warming and shifts in rainfall could decrease crop yields by
30% by the mid-21st cen. Also reduction in arable land with pressures on
agricultural output (Kapur, Khosla, & Mehta, 2009).
Major impact on rain fed crops; cultivated in nearly 60% of cropland
area. The poorest, most vulnerable farmers who practice rain fed
agriculture. Rise of 0.5°C in winter temp. projected to reduce rain fed
wheat yield by 0.45 tonnes per hectare (Lal, et al., 1998).
Disease burden of climate dependent diseases very high. Duration of the
malaria transmission likely to widen in northern, western states and
shorten in southern states (Bhattacharya, et al., 2006). Increase in coastal
water temps would exacerbate the abundance and toxicity of cholera.
50 % of India’s forests likely to experience shift in forest types, adversely
impacting biodiversity, regional climate dynamics and livelihoods based
on forest products.
30

Impact on Coastal Ecosystems
Geographic location and demographic character. Tropical cyclones and
associated storm surges. Of 65 coastal districts, 24 highly cyclone prone.
Affected by sea-level rise and temperature increases. Heavily populated
mega-delta regions at greatest risk due to flooding. Changes in Godavari,
Mahanadi and Krishna coastal deltas will potentially displace millions.
Damage aquaculture industries, and exacerbate already declining fish
productivity.
NATCOM projects: one-meter sea-level rise will displace approx. 7.1 mn
people and about 5764 sq km of land area will be lost, along with 4200
km of roads (NATCOM, 2004).
Marine wetlands, tropical ecosystems and species such as mangroves,
coral reefs threatened by changes in temp, rising sea levels and increased
conc of CO2.
31

Climate Change and Vulnerability
• IPCC: Degree to which these systems are susceptible to, and
unable to cope with, adverse impacts/effects of CC, including
climate variability and extremes (Fussel & Klein, 2006).
• Key Vulnerabilities. Magnitude of impacts, timing of impacts,
persistence and reversibility of impacts, likelihood of impacts,
potential for adaptation, distributional aspects of impacts, and
importance of the system(s) at risk.
• OECD: Vulnerability as a function of the character, magnitude
and rate of CC and the degree to which a system is exposed, along
with its sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Increases as the
magnitude of climate change or sensitivity increases, and decreases
as adaptive capacity increases.
• Depends on Exposure, Sensitivity, Adaptive Capacity.
32

• Wisner et al. defined it as “the characteristics of a person or group
and their situation that influence their capacity to anticipate, cope
with, resist and recover from the impact of a natural hazard”.
• Cutter and Finch defined social vulnerability as “a measure of both
the sensitivity of a population to natural hazards and its ability to
respond to and recover from the impacts of hazards”.
• UNDP vulnerability as “the degree to which societies or
socioeconomic groups are affected by stresses and hazards, whether
brought about by external forces or intrinsic factors, that negatively
impact the social cohesion of a country”.
• Roots of vulnerability extend to social structures and settlement
and development patterns; these constructs affect access to
resources, power, information, and networks.
33

• Burton et al. “as a function of impacts and adaptation”. Impacts
result from a system’s sensitivity and exposure to climate-related
stimuli; adaptation results from a system’s capacity to adapt and its
ability to apply adaptive capacity to reduce vulnerability. Also state
“how vulnerability is defined in the context of CC will affect the
factors considered and included in climate policy”.
• Gamble et al. described the need to consider role of human and
social capital in determining vulnerability to CC. Countries with
greater human capital; could be less vulnerable to climate change
because of increased capacity to address it. Also, need to consider
social capital; trust, relationships, support networks, and knowledge
transfer systems; in identifying climate vulnerability.
• Human and social capital can contribute to address CC through
coping and responses. Lack of capital can leave individuals isolated
and at greater risk.
34

• Emphasize role of local institutions in implementing climate
adaptation and building adaptive capacity for populations.
• Cutter et al. “a socially constructed phenomenon influenced by
institutional and economic dynamics”. The vulnerability of a
system to CC determined by its exposure, physical setting, ability
and opportunity to adapt to change.
• Partially the product of social inequalities; social factors that
influence the susceptibility of various groups to harm and that also
govern their ability to respond.
• Based on the above concept and “New Indicators of Vulnerability
and Adaptive Capacity” by Adger et al, Granados constructed a
vulnerability index with 6 dimensions; health, education, physical
infrastructure, government, demographic and geographic factors,
dependence on agriculture.
35

• Emphasize role of local institutions in implementing climate
adaptation and building adaptive capacity for populations.
• Cutter et al. “a socially constructed phenomenon influenced by
institutional and economic dynamics”. The vulnerability of a
system to CC determined by its exposure, physical setting, ability
and opportunity to adapt to change. Partially the product of social
inequalities; social factors that influence the susceptibility of various
groups to harm and that also govern their ability to respond.
• Based on the above concept and “New Indicators of Vulnerability
and Adaptive Capacity” by Adger et al, Granados constructed a
vulnerability index with 6 dimensions; health, education, physical
infrastructure, government, demographic and geographic factors,
dependence on agriculture.
36

Patnaik and Narayanan look at four diff. sources of vulnerability:
• Demographic Vulnerability: Density of Population and Literacy Rate.
• Climatic Vulnerability: Variance in annual rainfall, Variance in June-
July-August Rainfall, and Frequency of extreme events.
• Agricultural Vulnerability: Production of Rice, Cropping Intensity,
Area under Cultivation, Irrigation Intensity, No. of Cattle and
Livestock.
• Occupational Vulnerability: Total Workers, Agricultural Labourers,
Manufacturing Labourers and Non Workers (Patnaik and Narayanan,
2009).
37

The Coastal Region of India
The coastline of India extends to 75,500 km as per CRZ, 2010. The coastal plains
of India lie to both the eastern and western side of the peninsula (MOEF, 2010).
The western coastal plain of the peninsular plateau extends from Gujarat in the
north to Kerala in the south. The eastern coastal plain lies between the Eastern
Ghats and the Bay of Bengal. It extends from West Bengal in the north to Tamil
Nadu in the south.
The temperature in the coastal regions exceeds 30°C coupled with high levels of
humidity. Region receives both the northeast and southwest monsoon rains.
Agriculture and fishing have been the dominant occupations in the coastal plains
since ancient times.
About 20% of the popn. lives in the coastal areas, a large percentage of this being
in coastal cities, such as Mumbai, Chennai and Kolkata. One of the major factors
responsible for the degradation of coastal ecosystems is the growth in human
population that requires space for settlement and other resources, like soil and
water. Source: (MOEF, 2010).
38

The way forward
Rural and coastal areas in India are highly vulnerable to climate
change. People there are heavily dependent on natural resources such as
local water supplies, agricultural land and fisheries.
Agricultural sector is already threatened by existing stresses such as the
limited availability of water resources for irrigation, land degradation,
biodiversity loss and air pollution. As temperatures increase, the need
for irrigation will rise in those areas projected to become drier.
Similarly, fisheries facing brunt of overfishing and pollution. CC will
further add to the bandwagon and make already sensitive systems even
more vulnerable.
Loss of livelihood and income due to climate change may plunge
vulnerable families and communities into a cycle of poverty and
migration.
39

The way forward
Communities have to adapt to survive the shocks due to CC. In India,
this is a rather difficult task for marginal communities due to limited
access to resources, livelihoods, basic services, education, nutrition,
housing, infrastructure, insurance, information, their social status,
occupation and access to governance structures.
Geographic and demographic uniqueness of coastal region of India and
its high susceptibility to climate change; study the impact of CC and
assess vulnerability of local communities (along with a social dimension
of adaptation and mitigation approach to those impacts).
• Which coastal areas are more prone to climatic shocks? Which communities in the
region are the most vulnerable and what are the reasons for their vulnerability?
• What is the impact of climate change on agriculture, fisheries and the respective
people employed in those sectors?
• What are the traditional knowledge systems employed by the concerned communities
in dealing with extreme events of climate change?
40

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