"Monitoring and Evaluation (M&E) System for the Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP)," presentation by Babatunde Omilola at the 6th CAADP Partnership Platform. Birchwood Hotel, Johannesburg, South Africa. April 21-23, 2010.

1. MONITORING AND EVALUATION (M&E) SYSTEM
FOR THE
COMPREHENSIVE AFRICA AGRICULTURE
DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAMME (CAADP)
BABATUNDE OMILOLA
COORDINATOR, REGIONAL STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND KNOWLEDGE SUPPORT SYSTEM
(RESAKSS)
INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IFPRI)
6TH CAADP PARTNERSHIP PLATFORM
BIRCHWOOD HOTEL, JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA
APRIL 21-23, 2010

2. Outline
• What is CAADP?
– Principles
– Processes and implementation
• Why an overarching M&E System for CAADP?
• Indicators to monitor and evaluate
• Operationalizing the CAADP M&E Framework
– Data collection, management and analysis
– M&E outputs, formats and reporting
– Roles and responsibilities of partners and
collaborators in implementing CAADP M&E
framework

3. What is CAADP?
• The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture
Development Programme (CAADP) is the
African Union (AU)/New Partnership for
Africa’s Development (NEPAD) vision and
strategy for the development of African
agriculture.
• CAADP puts agriculture at top of priorities of
African countries
• CAADP is African-owned and African-led

4. CAADP Principles
• Employ agriculture-led growth to achieve MDG1 of
halving poverty and hunger by 2015
• Pursuit of 6% average annual sector growth at national
level
• Allocation of 10% of national budgets to agriculture
sector
• Exploitation of regional complementarities and
cooperation to boost growth
• Policy efficiency, dialogue, review and accountability
(evidence-based policymaking)
• Partnerships and alliances to include farmers,
agribusiness, civil society

5. CAADP Process
• The principles are achieved through:
– the strategic functions of CAADP,
– the guidance and involvement of the Regional Economic
Communities (RECs), and
– the national roundtable process
• These activities surround four key pillars, led by Africa-based
technical institutions:
– Pillar 1: extending the area under sustainable land management
(University of Zambia)
– Pillar 2: Improving rural infrastructure and trade-related capacities
for market access (Conference of Ministers of Agriculture of West
and Central Africa (CMA/AOC))
– Pillar 3: Increasing food supply and reducing hunger (University of
KwaZulu-Natal)
– Pillar 4: Agricultural research, technology dissemination and
adoption (Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA))

6. Why an overarching M&E system for CAADP?
• A mechanism by which processes put in place, commitments and
investments made, performance of agriculture sector, and any
changes in poverty, hunger and food and nutrition security are
regularly and transparently measured against stated targets and, if
necessary, can lead to the revision of processes, policies, investments
and practices in order for CAADP to stay on track
– Are countries achieving the targeted growth rates? (6%)
– Are countries investing at the targeted level? (10%)
– Are these investments having their intended impacts on poverty and hunger?
• To bring cohesion across the different systems being developed to
track specific components of CAADP, including the individual CAADP
pillar M&E systems, APRM and MAF
• To inform the review processes established by CAADP-PP (mutual,
peer and progress reviews)
• To further inform policy-making and dialogue

7. Idea behind CAADP M&E framework
Greater/better distributed
poverty reduction & food and nutrition
t a r
security outcomes
r n e
Other factors
a a p
Accelerated agricultural growth & c l o
Greater market access k y r
Other factors i s t
More enabling policies & n i i
Greater/more efficient allocation of g s n
agricultural investments g
Other factors More effective
National level
1
Processes
8
Roundtable
7
2 P4
P3
Regional level
P2
Africa-wide level
Global level P1 3
Early actions
6
4 Declarations
Commitments 5
Decisions
Page 7

8. Key questions for CAADP M&E
• Delivering on commitments and achieving stated targets
– Have commitments and targets been met so far?
• Effectiveness of interventions (processes, policies, investments)
– How effective have different types of interventions been in any achievements
realized so far? What factors have shaped the achievements?
– What are the trade-offs and complementarities, if any, among different types of
interventions?
• Consistency of planned interventions with initial targets
– What are the projected impacts if interventions proceed as planned?
– Are the projected impacts compatible with the CAADP targets?
– If not, what adjustments are needed to get it on track?
• Exploring better interventions
– Could greater or better distributed impacts be obtained by reconfiguring the
interventions?
– What are the different interventions that can lead to these outcomes?
Page 8

9. Main challenge and achievements to date
 Main challenge
– Need indicators that are standardized, consistent and measurable across
different countries and regions for cross-country comparisons and learning
• Main achievements
– CAADP M&E working group established, beginning with a workshop at the AU
(Addis Ababa, Dec 3-4, 2007)
– Draft M&E framework developed and presented at CAADP PP meeting in
Seychelles, March 2008
– Framework based on CAADP principles and economic theory to address issue
of attribution/causality (i.e. inputs outputs outcomes impacts)
– Developed data collection formats with which ReSAKSS nodes are working with
network of partners to collect data on indicators
– 5th CAADP PP in Abuja mandated that the draft M&E framework be validated,
November 9-10, 2009
– M&E framework validated in collaboration with AU/NEPAD and other
stakeholders in South Africa, March 1-3, 2010
– Revised version of the validated framework and implementation now ready
Page 9
– First Comprehensive CAADP M&E report based on the framework now ready

10. Indicators to monitor and evaluate
• Input indicators: what is the overall level of effort invested?
– CAADP processes, policies, institutions, investments, etc.
• Output indicators: what is the level of provision, coverage, and
utilization of services?
– Access to infrastructure and services, adoption of technologies, etc.
• Outcome indicators: what is the effect on outcomes that affect
goals?
– Yields, production, wages, prices, trade, etc.
• Impact indicators: what is the ultimate effect on goals?
– Growth, income, poverty, food security, hunger, etc.
• Conditioning indicators: how confident are we that any observed
changes is due to the intervention?
– Total budgetary resources, climate, natural disasters, wars, etc.
Page 10

11. Input indicators: CAADP roundtable process
Program Program Key Indicators:
implementation scaling up and  Credible and relevant
and M&E out, etc.
evidence used in design
of investment program
National Focal
Point appointed  Inclusive participation
CAADP of stakeholders in
Pillar 4 process
Research & launched program design
Technology
Roundtable Pillar 3
 Investment program
conference Food security aligned with CAADP
held & Steering &
Pillar 2
Technical
principles and targets
compact Markets & trade
signed
Pillar 1
Committees  Investment program
appointed
Land & water technically reviewed
management
National
compact  Mechanisms in place
Cabinet memo
developed &
Stock taking discussed &
for implementation and
discussed
and gap analysis approved M&E of the program
completed
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12. Input indicators:
enabling conditions (other processes, policies, institutions)
Key Indicators:
National Policy • Policies for private
Gov’t Processes/Events Donors sector development
CAADP, SWAP, MTEF, (property rights, access to
Exp Reviews, Donor credit, contract enforcement,
Private harmonization, licensing, competition, …)
Others
Sector Elections, Law, etc. • Policies on equity
(access of poor and vulnerable
groups to resources, markets,
food, and nutrition)
Regional Level Africa-wide level Global level
• Governance (political
Actors Process Actors Process Actors stability, accountability,
Process
government effectiveness,
RECs, Reg. Summit, AU, Int’l Assembly G-8, G-20, Conventi regulatory quality, rule of law,
Orgs., etc. Reviews, Orgs., etc. , Summit, WTO, etc. ons, etc. control of corruption)
etc. etc.
• Harmonized policies and
strategies
• Commitments met
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13. Input indicators:
investments and disaggregation
CAADP Sub-sector
Agriculture Pillar Crops, livestock,
Research, extension, 1, 2, 3, 4 fishery, forestry
irrigation, input support,
markets, ... Commodity
Staples, traditional,
Sector AGRICULTURAL high value, export, ...
Agriculture, roads, & RELATED
education, health, Other
INVESTMENTS
water & sanitation, ... Gender, socio-
economic groups
Space
Province, district, Source Economic
rural/urban, Agro- Government, Salaries, capital,
ecology Donors, Private operations and
Sector maintenance, …

14. Output indicators:
coverage and utilization of services
Investment / Provision / Utilization (e.g.) Disaggregation
Intervention Coverage (e.g.)
Research Number of Area under Commodity, gender, space
technologies dev’d technology
Extension Extension-farmer Number of visits Gender, space
ratio received per year
Irrigation Capacity of irrigation Area under irrigation Commodity, gender, space
(irrigable area)
Farm support Quantity of support Area under input Commodity, gender, space
Feeder roads Length or density of Space
roads
Market Distance to nearest Share of output sold Commodity, gender, space
market
Post harvest Capacity of storage Capacity utilized Commodity, gender, space
…

15. Outcome indicators:
agricultural sector performance
Production, trade and prices Sector growth and
by: contribution to
Growth returns to overall GDP by:
sub-sector, commodity, space
different types of
investments by: Space
sub-sector, commodity, Sub-sector growth
space AGRICULTURAL and contribution to
SECTOR AgGDP by:
Productivity of factors PERFORMANCE Space
(land, labor, capital)
and inputs by:
Commodity growth,
sub-sector, commodity, Use of factors (land, labor,
contribution to
gender, socio-economic capital) and inputs by:
AgGDP by:
group, space sub-sector, commodity, gender,
Space
socio-economic group, Space

16. Impact indicators
Unit costs by:
Returns to different
types of investments by: gender, socio- Distribution by:
economic group,
gender, socio-economic gender, socio-
space
group, space economic group,
space
Returns to sub-sector
growth by: INCOME,
gender, socio-economic POVERTY, Decomposition by:
group, Space FOOD AND sector (agriculture,
NUTRITION services, industry); sub-
Returns to commodity sector (crops, livestock,
growth by: SECURITY,
fishery, forestry);
HUNGER commodity (staples,
gender, socio-economic
group, Space high value, export, etc.)

17. Operationalization of CAADP M&E Framework
• Successful implementation of the CAADP M&E system ultimately
depends on the extent to which sufficient information on the
indicators and outputs can be generated on a regular basis and in a
timely fashion consisting of:
– Linked country level and regional teams, working under clearly defined
roles and using shared data standards and protocols
– standardization and harmonization of the core set of data and
indicators across countries that will enable cross-country comparisons
and contribute to peer and mutual reviews of CAADP at regional and
continental levels
– Regular collection, measurement, analysis, documentation and
processing of data at national and regional levels
– Roles and responsibilities of different partners at the national, regional,
continental and international levels in terms of data collection,
management, analysis, and reporting
– Timely publication of these indicators and related monitoring reports

18. CAADP M&E Minimum Core Set of Indicators
Process, policy or intervention area Indicator/Definition
Enabling environment
1. Political and economic governance 1a. % of population satisfied with political governance by: (i) gender; (ii) rural/urban; (iii) age
group; (iv) sector
1b. Macroeconomic management: (i) deficit to GDP; (ii),revenue to GDP; (iii) inflation rate; (iv) debt
to GDP
2. Policies for private sector development 2a. Percent of population with access to agricultural and rural finance and credit
2b. Value of commercial loans for agricultural sector as % of: (i) value of total loans; (ii) AgGDP
CAADP Country implementation process
3. Stage in county roundtable process and quality of participation 3a. Number of countries at major stages of the process
3b. Composition (e.g. institution, gender, expertise) of participants
Commitments and financing
4. Donor commitments and disbursements 4a. Total ODA commitments as % of AgGDP
4b. Share of ODA disbursed for (i) agricultural R&D; (ii) value chains; (iii) emergency food aid
5. Government spending and investment in Agricultural research and 5a. Expenditures on the agricultural sector as % of: (i) total government spending; (ii) AgGDP
development
5b. Expenditures on agricultural R&D as % of AgGDP
6. Private sector investments 6a. Total investment in agricultural sector as % of AgGDP
6b. Total investment in agricultural value chains as % of AgGDP
Agricultural sector performance
7. Capacity 7a. Number of professionals as per 1000 farmers
7b. Composition of professionals as % by: (i) gender; (ii) education attainment (PhD, MS, BS,
Diploma, etc.)
8. Agricultural growth and sources of growth 8a. Percent of area or output under improved technologies: (i) improved genetic material; (ii)
fertilizer; (iii) irrigation
8b. Productivity of major commodities (tone-equivalent per unit factor)
8c. Real AgGDP growth rate (%)
8d. % contribution to AgGDP growth of: (i) sub-sectors (crops, livestock, forestry, fishery); (ii) major
commodities
9. Agricultural trade performance 9a. Value of total agricultural exports by: (i) as % of AgGDP; (ii) share of value-added in total
exports; (iii) ratio to value of total agricultural imports; (iv) % contribution by sub-sectors and
major commodities
9b. Domestic and export-import parity prices by major commodities
CAADP goals
10. Poverty, hunger and food and nutrition security 10a. Poverty rate (P1) and gap (P2) by rural/urban
10b. Proportion of population below minimum dietary energy consumption (H1) by: (i) gender; (ii)
rural/urban; (iii) age
10c. Nutrition diversity by: (i) gender; (ii) rural/urban; (iii) age

19. Data collection, management and analysis
Key question Tools Data
Delivering on • Trends • National surveys
commitments • Simple correlations • Expert opinion surveys
Effectiveness of • Econometric methods • National surveys
interventions • General equilibrium • Targeted surveys
models • Expert opinion surveys
Consistency • Simulation models • Assessment of effectiveness
with initial • Participatory • Expert opinion surveys
targets approaches
Exploring better • Simulation models • Assessment of effectiveness
interventions • Participatory and consistency
approaches • Expert opinion surveys
Details in (www.resakss.org/publications/DiscussionP4&7.pdf)

20. Methodology:
delivering on commitments
• Trends, situation, and simple correlation analyses to monitor
progress (i.e. no attribution to interventions)
– CAADP Roundtable process
– Donor commitments
– 10% government agricultural expenditure
– 6% agricultural GDP growth
– Halving poverty and hunger, etc.
• Data
– National household surveys, accounts, etc.
– International public datasets (AfDB, World Bank, FAO, etc.)
– Targeted surveys (CAADP national focal points)
– Targeted expert opinion surveys
– …
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21. Methodology:
effectiveness of interventions (1)
• Main challenge is attribution
• Two complementary approaches
– Before and after treatment
• Baselines (2003, compact signed, program implemented)
• Mid-term, end of project, long after project
– With and without treatment
• Treatment: direct beneficiaries; indirect beneficiaries through
information/technology transfers, etc.
• Controls: can only be affected through general equilibrium effects,
e.g. prices, wages, etc.
• For poverty (pov), impact of intervention (INV) measured by
Average Treatment effect of the Treated (ATT):
ATTj = Ej [ povbefore, j – povafter, j | INVj =1] – Ei [povbefore, i – povafter, i | INVi =0]
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22. Methodology:
effectiveness of interventions (2)
• Underlying relationships to be estimated
– Intervention decision making and placement
– Household access to and utilization of services due to intervention
– Household production, marketing and consumption decisions
• Techniques
– Econometric methods (double-difference, instrumental variables,
matching) to assess direct impacts (mid-term, end of project, long
after project)
– General equilibrium modeling to assess economy-wide impacts
• Data
– National surveys
– Targeted household, market and other surveys to fill gaps
– Expert opinion surveys
– Case studies (selected countries and/or programs)
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23. Methodology:
consistency with initial targets
• Apply models developed for stocktaking and gap analysis
• What are the projected impacts if interventions proceed as
planned?
– Use mid-term estimated ex-post impacts and parameters and growth
patterns to project ex-ante impacts over period when target is
expected to be achieved
 Are the projected impacts compatible with the CAADP
targets?
– Compare above ex-ante impacts with initial targets
 If not, what adjustments are needed to get it on track?
– Use data and information from experts to identify plausible scenarios
– Simulate impacts under different scenarios to reach initial targets
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24. Methodology:
exploring better interventions
• Could greater or better distributed impacts be obtained by
reconfiguring the interventions?
– Even if interventions are consistent with the initial targets, can
simulate impacts under different composition of investments to
identify (in)efficiencies in implementation
– Use estimated ex-post impacts and parameters from cross-country
reviews and information from experts to identify plausible scenarios
– Value of indicators associated with simulated impacts of the desirable
scenarios can be used as guidelines to set new targets
 What are the different interventions that can lead to these
outcomes?
– Composition of investments associated with desirable scenarios from
preceding analysis
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25. M&E outputs, formats and reporting
• The primary output of the CAADP M&E system will be produced in the
form of a report, which will be produced at the national, regional and
Africa-wide levels on at least an annual basis and deal with addressing the
issues of enabling environment and progress with delivery of
commitments and achieving stated growth and poverty-reduction targets.
• Widespread dissemination of the CAADP M&E outputs, as well as the
data, tools, methods, and knowledge on agricultural and rural
development in general, will be done through the ReSAKSS website
(www.resakss.org)
• Reporting mechanism to be institutionalized and implemented on regular
basis (semi-annual, annual or bi-annual depending on indicator)
• Various other media and presentations to review M&E information and
results of analyses:
– CAADP PP (Africa wide)
– CAADP advisory councils (REC level)
– ReSAKSS steering committee meetings (REC level)
– Other regional- and country-level policy dialogues (Roundtables, etc)

26. CAADP M&E: ReSAKSS Website
www.resakss.org

27. Roles and responsibilities of partners and collaborators in
implementing CAADP M&E Framework

28. Thank you.