29. ‘Risk Management and Opportunity Identification
at the Strategic Level’
Dr.Babamahmoodi
30. A story, an image, or a map of the future
and
An interpretation of the present
projected into the future
and
An internally consistent story about the path
from the present to a future horizon
Dr.Babamahmoodi
31. Multiple
views with different logics
Qualitative
dealing with complex structural change
Objective
plausible and internally consistent descriptions
Focused
key issues and uncertainties
Open-ended
outlines, not precise details
Dr.Babamahmoodi
34. Key Strategic Issues
Focal Question
Scenario Development
Implications
Strategy Development
Dr.Babamahmoodi
35. Shared articulation of alternative futures
Coherent “mental maps” of the future
Analysis of current environment
Context for developing and evaluating strategy
Encourage adaptation to change
Emphasize uncertainty and the need for flexibility
Dr.Babamahmoodi
36. Plausible
Recognizable from the signals of the present
Creative in exploring new ground and ideas
Relevant and significant to the organization
Internally consistent
Challenging
Dr.Babamahmoodi
39. “The only relevant discussions about the future are
where we succeed in shifting the question from
whether something will happen to what we would do
if it did happen.”
Arie de Geus
Shell Group Planning
Dr.Babamahmoodi