111513 Preliminary Project Execution Plan (Schedule & Cost)

Preliminary Project
Execution Plan
SCHEDULE
& COST
Revision 1: November 12, 2013

Preliminary PEP: Schedule and Cost
AUTHOR
Rufran C. Frago, P. Eng., PMP®, CCP, PMI-RMP®
Rufran has a wide-range of expertise & specialization
while working in the Manufacturing, Petrochemical,
Oleo-chemicals, Oil and Gas, Education & Training Industries
for more than 36 years in various roles and capacities. He has
worked in Asia, Africa, Middle East and North America.
His expertise includes: Primavera Database
Administration, Programs and Project Planning & Scheduling,
Qualitative/Quantitative Risk Management, Problem Solving,
Project Management, Cost Engineering, Project Control,
Construction Management/Coordination, Project Review &
Implementation Audit, Estimating, Engineering & Design,
Fab/Mod Management, Preventive & Predictive Reliability-
Based Maintenance, Operation, Material Selection,
Warehousing, EH&S, and Training.
2

Rufran is the author of the book Risk-based Management in the World of Threats and Opportunities: A Project
Controls Perspective.
• https://youtu.be/LDESPW6OYkg
• http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI
• https://www.amazon.com/author/rufrancfrago
3

For those who are interested, please join Rufran at (click hyperlink) the following sites.
LinkedIn Risk-based Management (RBM) Group
https://www.linkedin.com/groups/6575331
My Oil Pro
http://oilpro.com/rufran
Risk-based Management and Services Inc. Facebook
https://www.facebook.com/RiskBasedManagement/
Your World, Our Risk Universe: WordPress
https://rufrancfrago.wordpress.com/tag/rufran-frago/
E-Touch Up: A Brand of RBM&S Inc.
https://www.facebook.com/ETouchUp/
Author Page: Amazon.com
http://www.amazon.com/RUFRAN-C.-FRAGO-PMI-RMP/e/B01055MPYI
LinkedIn Professional Website
https://www.linkedin.com/in/rufranfrago
Other articles authored by Rufran Frago.
Schedule Critical path
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-critical-path?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
Primer to Good Schedule Integration
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/primer-good-schedule-integration-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
Project Schedule: P50, Anyone?
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/project-schedule-p50-anyone-article-rufran-frago-edmonton-section
Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 1
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-baseline-dilemma-part-1-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
Schedule Baseline Dilemma Part 2
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/schedule-baseline-dilemma-part-2-rufran?trk=pulse-det-nav_art
4

Rules of Engagement
Turn off your cell phones
Ask questions
One person at a time
Participate!
Have fun!
No
Texting
No
Phones
Abide by
Class Times
Ask
Questions
5

Purpose of this session
To reconcile student’s understanding of the fundamental
integrative approach to project management.
To highlight the critical project management elements
needed for success.
To share with students some interesting stories that can
reinforce correct project management concept.
To demonstrate the importance of a risk-based Project
Execution Plan.
To emphasize the importance of a good quality plan.
6

7
LESSONS
Ref: Frago, R., 1991.Original Drawing of Peter Nigel

Causes of IT/IS Project Failure (IT-Cortex, 2013)
8
UK Bull Survey (1998) – Top 3 causes
• Communication breakdown
• Lack of Planning
• Poor Quality Control
Canadian KPMG Survey (1997) – Top 3 causes
• Poor project planning
• Weak business case
• Lack of top management support
Chaos Report (1995)
Top 7 causes
• Incomplete
requirements
• Lack of User
involvement
• Lack of resources
• Unrealistic expectations
• Lack of management
support
• Changing requirements
• Lack of planning

Example of Failed Construction Projects
9
1. Canada-Pickering Nuclear Generating Station (Wikipedia,
2013) . Cost overrun from $780M (2002) to $2.5B (2005)
with only two reactors in service instead of four. That’s
221% more.
2. Canada-Montreal Olympic Stadium (Payne, M., 2006 and
Wikipedia , 2013). Cost overrun from $310M (1970) to a
debt of $1B (1976) & a final cost settlement of $2B (2006).
That’s 545% more. Poor quality structure.
3. Canada-Long Lake Project (Journal of Commerce, 2008).
Cost overrun from $2B (2004) to $6.1B (2008). That’s 205%
more. Schedule delay. Production capacity was not met.
4. Canada-Aecon FB3 Project (Reuters, 2011). Cost overrun
up to $59M. Schedule delay. Too much changes. Fixed-price
contract not be suitable for very large & complex project.

Planning & Scheduling
10
Planning basically determines what
and how you are going to do it,
while scheduling determines when
you are going to start and finish
the job or the project.
Heuristics = Focus more on
planning, rather than the just the
plan.
There is nothing as inefficient as doing with great
efficiency, that which does not need to be done.

Cost Management Plan
11
Good cost management plan starts
with a good estimate.
Followed by manageable cost
breakdown preferably down to the
work package level.
Establishing a cost baseline let the
project knows its target to measure
performance.
Measurement, monitoring and
control keeps cost at bay.
Management of Cost Risk

Schedule Management Plan
12
Fast track project philosophy
applied to all activities
Alignment with Execution
Strategy
Schedule duration represent modal
[most likely] or median [P50 mid
point] or mean [average] values.
Aligned with the Estimate
(Resource Load & Package)
Integrated schedule
Management of schedule risk

Disjointed Plan = Disjointed Schedule (Frago, R., 2008)
13

14
INTEGRATION
Syllogism:
How can a structure stand the load if
its components are misaligned and
not properly fastened together?

Integrative Planning Process (IPP)
Source: PMBOK 5th Edition (2013).Page 61
15

IPP (continuation…)
16

18
FRAMEWORK
• Project works best with an
implementation framework

Examples of Project Implementation Model
19
SPIM (Suncor, 2012)
SF-PIP (Government of South Australia, 2011).
7FE (Management by Process, 2013)

Processes and Phases
Preliminary
PEP:
Schedule &
Cost
1 2 3 4 5
20

IPR (continuation…)
Preliminary
PEP=
Preliminary
Schedule &
Preliminary
Cost
1 2 3 4 5
21

22
RISK-BASED
APPROACH
• Everything we do in the project is
associated with managing risks.
• In fact, I do believe that it is what
we do everyday.

Project Risk Management
It is important that the project undertake the
following as part of continuous collaboration
process through out the different phases & stages
until completion.
• Qualitative Risk Assessment
• Quantitative Risk Assessment
23

Quantitative Risk Analysis supports PEP
24
Source: Frago, R. (2013). How to Prepare for SQRA

RISKS (Project, schedule and cost risks
25
Project Risk* is defined as “an uncertain event or
condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a
negative effect on at least one project objective, such
as time, cost, scope, quality, etc.”
Schedule Risk is defined as an uncertain event or
condition that, if it occurs, has a positive or a
negative effect on the project’s schedule.

26
RISKS:
It’s NATURE &
HABITAT

IRON TRIANGLE (PM Triangle)
27
COST
TIME
SCOPE
QUALITY
Source: Wikipedia, 2013.Project Management Triangle

A need for a Risk-Based PEP
28Source: Frago, R. (2013).Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches.

A need for a Risk-Based PEP (continuation…)
29Source: Frago, R. (2013).Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches.

Barriers to your Project Plan
30Source: Calgary Maps, 2013. Plus 15. http://www.calgary-convention.com/calgary/maps

31
WORDS
OF
WISDOM
Planning Heuristics
Rufran2013
Ref: Frago, R., 2013.Old man.
Original Drawingwhiteboard marker

Words of Wisdom
32
1. Don’t plan (or schedule) in more detail than you can manage. (Ref: Project Planning,
Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p117)
2. If you don’t know where you’re going, how will you know when you get there? (Ref:
Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p.53)
3. [Alice said] “Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to go from here?”
“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to,” said the Cat. “I don’t
know where…” said Alice. “Then it doesn’t matter which way you go,” said the
Cat. (Reference: Lewis Carroll-Alice’s Adventures in Wonderland)
4. Avoid the classic problem of trying to put ten pounds of trash in a five pound bag! It
will not work. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p.97)
5. Digging the best hole in the world is of little use if a hole is not needed in the first
place. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1997, p.167)
6. Putting two jockeys on one horse won’t make the horse run any faster. (Ref: Project
Planning, Scheduling & Control by Lewis 1991, p.66)
7. “Plans are worthless, but planning is everything.” (Ref: Quoted by Dwight
Eisenhower, 17Nov1957)
8. If you have no plan, control is impossible. (Ref: Project Planning, Scheduling &
Control by Lewis 1991, p25)
9. A Project Manager should always be assigned prior to the start of project planning
and preferably while the Project Charter is being developed. (Ref: PMBOK 3rd
Edition, e-file, p.96, Section 4.1)

BIBLIOGRAPHY
33
1. Suncor (2012).Suncor Project Implementation Model
2. Government of South Australia (2011).Project Implementation Process.p28.
3. Management by Process (2013).7FE Project Framework.Retrieved from
http://www.managementbyprocess.com/joomla/index.php?option=com_conten
t&task=view&id=16
4. IT-Cortex (2013).Failure Causes.Retrieved from http://www.it-
cortex.com/Stat_Failure_Cause.htm
5. Wikipedia (2013).Cost Overrun.Retrieved from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_overrun
6. Calgary Herald (2007).Huge Cost Overruns…Retrieved from
http://www.canada.com/story.html?id=afeb07dc-a5ff-4608-a9f7-450367ff99ef
7. Wikipedia (2013).Olympic Stadium (Montreal).retrieved from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreal_Olympic_Stadium
8. Payne, M. (2006).Olympic Turnaround.page 9
9. Journal of Commerce, 2008. Cost overruns delay production at Long Lake
Oilsands project.Retrieved from
http://www.journalofcommerce.com/article/id31166

BIBLIOGRAPHY (Continuation…)
34
10. Reuters, 2011.Update Aecon sees $56M to $59M hit…Retrieved from
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/04/aecongroup-
idUSSGE71307O20110204
11. Frago, R. (Jan-2008), Project ABC Construction Schedule Analysis.E-mail
flag to Project Manager
12. PMBOK 5th Edition (2013).Page 40, 50 & 61
13. Frago, R. (2013). How to Prepare for SQRA.Slideshare.Retrieved from
http://www.slideshare.net/rfrago/071513-how-to-prepare-for-sqra-by-rcf
14. Wikipedia, 2013.Project Management Triangle.Retrieved from
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_management_triangle
15. Frago, R. (2013).Risk Concepts, Philosophies, Methods and Approaches.
Retrieved from http://www.slideshare.net/rfrago/082213-risk-concepts-
philosophies-methods-and-approaches
16. Calgary Maps, 2013. Plus 15. Retrieved from http://www.calgary-
convention.com/calgary/maps
17. Frago, R., 2013.Old man & his book. Original Drawingwhiteboard marker
18. Frago, R., 1991.Original Drawing of Peter Nigel@CATPMS

111513 Preliminary Project Execution Plan (Schedule & Cost)

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