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What's Next for the Future?
1. What’s Next for the
Future?
Making Sense of the Signals and Making Decisions
The Forum 2016
Washington Hilton, 3/15/16
2. Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD
Vision Foresight Strategy LLC
“Reframing the future.”
Foresight and Strategic Analysis
www.visionforesightstrategy.com
richard@visionforesightstrategy.com
@kikilo
Available now on Amazon
7. Elements of Our Work
Historical analysis
Images of the future
Theories of change and stability Trends & emerging issues
Forecasting
Preferred futures
Innovation & creativity
8. Futures Thinking is…
…critical thinking about the future,
both in terms of what could happen and
what we want to see happen.
9. • Identify critical blind spots
• Reduce uncertainty about the future
• Map new opportunities for growth and
innovation
• Create shared understanding about possibilities
and changes
What Does Futures Thinking Get Us?
11. • Exponential development of technologies
• Coming disruption to many old industries
• New rules for work and for success
• Anyone can be an innovator today
Vivek Wadhwa: “Crash Course on the Future”
12. 1. New Behaviors: we are much more comfortable
living a public life
2. Technologies: cloud, collaborative tech, big data,
IoT
3. The Millennial Workforce: new attitudes,
expectations, and ways of working
4. Mobility: work anytime, anywhere, and on any
device
5. Globalization: no boundaries
Jacob Morgan: “Employee Experience”
13. • Human talent and labor as the “economic
engine” vs. the rapidly rising capabilities and
productivity of machines
• Millennials are basically all adults now; “youth”
is now about the Homeland Generation
Tensions and Uncertainties
16. SEEING THE WHOLE PICTURE
Beginning to use systems thinking to draw the map
17. • The system is greater than the sum of it parts
• You cannot understand the whole by focusing
on individual parts
• Relationships are more important than parts:
it’s about connections, flow, and feedback
• Archetypes can be useful starting points
Thinking in Systems
25. MAKING PLANS AND DECISIONS
Prioritizing and Sorting Action Amidst Uncertainty
26. • What are your goals for 2016? 2021? 2030?
• How will the trends, emerging issues, and
uncertainties alter those goals?
• How might those same things pose new
opportunities and specific threats?
Goals, Opportunities, and Risks
30. • Constants, parameters, numbers (such as subsidies, taxes, standards).
• The sizes of buffers and other stabilizing stocks, relative to their flows.
• The structure of material stocks and flows (such as transport networks, population age structures).
• The lengths of delays, relative to the rate of system change.
• The strength of negative feedback loops, relative to the impacts they are trying to correct against.
• The gain around driving positive feedback loops.
• The structure of information flows (who does and does not have access to information).
• The rules of the system (such as incentives, punishments, constraints).
• The power to add, change, evolve, or self-organize system structure.
• The goals of the system.
• The mindset or paradigm out of which the system — its goals, structure, rules, delays, parameters
— arises.
• The power to transcend paradigms.
Intervening in a System (Donella Meadows)
http://donellameadows.org/archives/leverage-points-places-to-intervene-in-a-system/