Data Mining Hidden App Store Winners
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Everyone knows Clash of Clans and Candy Crush make loads of money but what about the rest of the games? Is there a way to work out how well games in the App Store retain and monetise players using just publicly available data? Ric has built a system which harvests data from Apple and extracts hidden info; business intelligence that is not available elsewhere. Most notably he has charted the ‘hidden winners’, the games with the best ‘earning power’, and the results are quite surprising. In this talk Ric will explain why he went looking for this data, how he did, it and most interestingly, what trends he discovered and what developers can learn from this.
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Data Mining Hidden App Store Winners
- 1. Data Mining the App Store: Hidden Winners & Whale Spotting @_RicMoore ric@crispybyte.com
- 2. Ric Moore
- 4. De-risking Development • Where’s the mobile games market at? • How do you become at top 100 developer? • Are there hidden gems we can spot in the App Store charts? • Can you play ‘Moneyball’ with game development?
- 5. Where’s the mobile games market at?
- 6. Top Grossing Games – iPhone, USA, 2015
- 7. 56% 32% 12% Public VC Independent Market share Top 100 Grossing Developers, iPhone USA, 2015
- 8. 9 7 6 5 5 4 2 1 56 Games - 22 Public Companies
- 9. Top Grossing Independent Games, iPhone, USA #28 #67 #91 #56 #79 #93 #62 #81 #97 #64 #84 #100 $7.5k/day $35k/day Source: reflection.io
- 10. Top 100 grossing, iPhone, USA, 2015 - Genre Split 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Casual Casino RPG Strategy & Simulation Arcade Sports Word & Quiz What genres dominate?
- 11. How do you become a Top 100 developer?
- 13. 5 8 14 12 3 2 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Number of founders
- 14. 43.45% 34.48% 6.90% 11.03% 2.76% Management Tech Art Design Marketing Co-founder's Background
- 15. Investors Check List • Founding team of 2 - 4 people • Management experience • Tech experience • Founders worked together before • Games industry experience • Worked on a hit game
- 16. Hidden Winners
- 17. Rank History Example Grossing Rank Download Rank
- 18. Hidden Winners, iPhone, USA, March 2015
- 22. 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 1 25 50 75 100 Numberofdownloads Rank USA Top 100 Downloads, 1 day Source: reflection.io
- 23. 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000 1400000 1600000 1800000 1 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 RevenueUSD Rank USA Top 100 Grossing, 1 day Source: reflection.io
- 24. Hidden Winners iPhone USA March 2015 - Weighted
- 25. Whale Spotting
- 26. 新部落守卫战-神兽驾到 第一塔防策略游戏 by Tencent – reached top 10 grossing USA, iPhone فزعة 세븐나이츠 for kakao by Lumba – reached top 100 grossing by Netmarbles – reached top 120 grossing
- 27. Are they doing this?
- 28. So can you play ‘Moneyball’ with game development?
- 29. • It’s been going on for years • Charts lead the way: • DAU • MAU • Grossing YES!!!
- 30. 2007
- 31. #1 #2 #3 2010
- 32. #1 #2 2012
- 34. In the pipeline • Momentum Chart – the games with the biggest gains • Stickiness Chart – the games that have staying power • Soft Launch Chart – the games in soft launch, the ones to watch • New genres – using metadata to define new categories of games
- 35. See the Hidden Winners chart at http://crispybyte.com @_RicMoore ric@crispybyte.com