1. 1. Historical Background
2. Power Transition Theory
3. Recent Chinese Growth
4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict
5. Regional Stability in Asia
6. Will China Become a Democracy?
7. Student Questions
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
2. 1911
1949
1950
1966
1972
2001
1978
End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911)
Mao’s Communist Victory
Intervention in the Korean War (November)
Instability, Revolts,
Invasions, and Civil War
1976
Cultural Revolution
Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations
Death of Mao
Nixon Plays the “China Card”
1969 Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes
“Market Reforms” Begin Slowly
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
6. • Trade
• Human Rights
• Taiwan
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
7. • Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China
1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12
1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78
• Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict?
a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate
b) WTO is Impartial Monitor
c) Concessions are to a Third Party
d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
8. • Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response
• Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty
• American Perspective: Moral Obligation
-- Idealism
-- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy
-- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
9. • Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory
• Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan
• Series of “Taiwan Straits Crises” During the Cold War
• U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979
• Recent Democratization of Taiwan
• Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion
• Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way?
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
11. • Long History of Conflict
• 1980’s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending
• 1990’s: Defense Build Up Begins
a) Reorder Defense Focus
b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War
c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country
d) Buy Off the Military
• Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement
• China’s Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
12. • Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China
• Important Implications for the Distribution of Power
• Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible
ARISE TRAINING & RESEARCH CENTER
